Indonesia Indonesian Air Force, Tentara Nasional Indonesia-Angkatan Udara (TNI-AU)

[Umigami]

The numbers seem a bit off.

Feb 22, ordered 42 Rafales incl. armaments for $8.1 bil.

The payment:
- Sept 22 : $1.1 bil - $1.3 bil for 6 Rafales
- Apr 23 : $2.3 bil for 18 Rafales

So the last 18 Rafales would cost $4.5 bil - $4.7 bil .

Seems like we don't take the full armament offer.

We don't purchase any missile yet.
That last batch possibly includes spareparts for sustainment, simulator, etc. Not just airframe.

We already discussed this few pages back.

 

[Van Kravchenko]

These 18 are part of those 42.

Then there's no batch 2, only 42 plane purchased wether it's lot is different.

 

[Umigami]

Then there's no batch 2, only 42 plane purchased wether it's lot is different.

42 in 3 batches, 6+18+18.

 

[Madokafc]

Actually it is only one batch procurement with three batches of finance sources....

 

[Ravager]

Actually it is only one batch procurement with three batches of finance sources....

Hiw the the vipers ??? Has it been greenlighted as yet ???


We desperately need that bird yesterday ...

 

[Umigami]

Hiw the the vipers ??? Has it been greenlighted as yet ???


We desperately need that bird yesterday ...

US has no problem we use them in East?

 

[Ravager]

US has no problem we use them in East?

Did we have the money ?? Last i heard even blackhawk were ready to be shipped as long we could pay ... And everybody knows where we are going to use it when the deal is through .

 

[Qimpetmleteque]

Did we have the money ?? Last i heard even blackhawk were ready to be shipped as long we could pay ... And everybody knows where we are going to use it when the deal is through .

I think the problem is not about having money or not, but about the government's courage and political will to increase the proportion of the defense budget. Even though Indonesia's economic growth in 2023 is expected to fall to 4.8% due to economic turmoil and the normalization of commodity prices at the global level, in 2024 it's expected to increase again to 5.6%. This rate is similar to the last year of SBY's administration.

Indonesia's financial and debt conditions in recent years have been prudent and stable. If we do simple research by googling 'komposisi utang Indonesia 2022' and 'peringkat rating kredit Indonesia 2022', the following indicators will appear:

1. Indonesia's debt to GDP ratio in 2022 is still 39.5%. It's way below regulatory limits, 60%. This ratio is also the smallest when compared to countries with relatively the same credit rating.

2. Until 2022, Indonesia debt is about Rp 7734 trillion (US$ 518 B), its divided almost equally between government and private sectors. Long-term government debt is 99.8%, while long-tenor private debt is about 75%.

3. The government debt structure consists of 89% Government Securities (SBN) and 11% direct loans.

4. Debt in foreign currencies is only 29% (20% in US$, 5% in Euros, and 4% in Yen). About 71% of the debt is in Rupiah, it can be interpreted as domestic debt. Thus, the effect of foreign currencies fluctuations is relatively small on Indonesia's debt conditions. Then, domestic debt illustrates the confidence of the people to finance government programs.

5. In recent years, Indonesia's debt ratings from all global institutions have been in the good and stable category.

So, it's time to knock the president and MoF foreheads to increase political will and defense budget.

 

[Madokafc]

It was mostly Western European who put condition to not use their products to quell domestic rebellion especially Papua, the US on other hand doesn't imposed such restrictive Clause as long as you do the jobs "modestly" and doesn't Garner unwarranted attention, in which we can see US Made V150 and Gatling Armed helicopters in Action in Papua.

 

[Ravager]

I think the problem is not about having money or not, but about the government's courage and political will to increase the proportion of the defense budget. Even though Indonesia's economic growth in 2023 is expected to fall to 4.8% due to economic turmoil and the normalization of commodity prices at the global level, in 2024 it's expected to increase again to 5.6%. This rate is similar to the last year of SBY's administration.

Indonesia's financial and debt conditions in recent years have been prudent and stable. If we do simple research by googling 'komposisi utang Indonesia 2022' and 'peringkat rating kredit Indonesia 2022', the following indicators will appear:

1. Indonesia's debt to GDP ratio in 2022 is still 39.5%. It's way below regulatory limits, 60%. This ratio is also the smallest when compared to countries with relatively the same credit rating.

2. Until 2022, Indonesia debt is about Rp 7734 trillion (US$ 518 B), its divided almost equally between government and private sectors. Long-term government debt is 99.8%, while long-tenor private debt is about 75%.

3. The government debt structure consists of 89% Government Securities (SBN) and 11% direct loans.

4. Debt in foreign currencies is only 29% (20% in US$, 5% in Euros, and 4% in Yen). About 71% of the debt is in Rupiah, it can be interpreted as domestic debt. Thus, the effect of foreign currencies fluctuations is relatively small on Indonesia's debt conditions. Then, domestic debt illustrates the confidence of the people to finance government programs.

5. In recent years, Indonesia's debt ratings from all global institutions have been in the good and stable category.

So, it's time to knock the president and MoF foreheads to increase political will and defense budget.

In this moment close to an election time ?? It's a political suicide ...
The trend are gearing into the right way it's only too litle too late ....

 

[Qimpetmleteque]

In this moment close to an election time ?? It's a political suicide ...
The trend are gearing into the right way it's only too litle too late ....

Sorry, I don't understand that increasing the defense budget could be interpreted as political suicide. Moreover, this policy is to complete the MEF III target which will end next year, as well as to add Jokowi's legacy.

I think if President has the political will in the defense sector by increasing the 2024 defense budget, it will has relatively little impact on the people's political preferences and election results. It's relatively difficult for president and his coalition to directly capitalize the 2024 state budget to attract people's sympathy. The election will be held on Valentine's Day 2024, or the first quarter. The political campaign lasts for 75 days, starting in early December 2023. In the first quarter, it's very rare that programs or contracts have been completed.

If President wants to use the state budget and government programs to increase people's sympathy, then the opportunity is in 2023. And keep in mind, President Jokowi can't participate in 2024 presidential election.The latest survey also shows the president's approval rate is relatively very high. In several strategic policies, President also doesn't hesitate to take a different stance from PDIP.

I mean, to knock the president's forehead is to increase the defense budget by 2024, so that the MEF III target will be completed. Again, if President has the political will. This is all he needs.

 

[Ravager]

Sorry, I don't understand that increasing the defense budget could be interpreted as political suicide. Moreover, this policy is to complete the MEF III target which will end next year, as well as to add Jokowi's legacy.

I think if President has the political will in the defense sector by increasing the 2024 defense budget, it will has relatively little impact on the people's political preferences and election results. It's relatively difficult for president and his coalition to directly capitalize the 2024 state budget to attract people's sympathy. The election will be held on Valentine's Day 2024, or the first quarter. The political campaign lasts for 75 days, starting in early December 2023. In the first quarter, it's very rare that programs or contracts have been completed.

If President wants to use the state budget and government programs to increase people's sympathy, then the opportunity is in 2023. And keep in mind, President Jokowi can't participate in 2024 presidential election.The latest survey also shows the president's approval rate is relatively very high. In several strategic policies, President also doesn't hesitate to take a different stance from PDIP.

I mean, to knock the president's forehead is to increase the defense budget by 2024, so that the MEF III target will be completed. Again, if President has the political will. This is all he needs.

Oh how i wish your vision and aspiration could be turned into reality . But , real indonesian politic dictate thing otherwise ...
Most of our brethren never give a damn about SCS !! Most of them still live in the Indosiar and SCTV fantasy land and drowned in the real life demands and neccesities that doesn't give them a luxury to think/plan what should to expect and be done to 5 - 10 years ahead of them especially something so distant happening in the foreign lands .
The most realistic approaches that could be realistically be done only through strengtening the economies first and deal the rest of problems later ...

Sigh ...

 

[Qimpetmleteque]

Oh how i wish your vision and aspiration could be turned into reality . But , real indonesian politic dictate thing otherwise ...
Most of our brethren never give a damn about SCS !! Most of them still live in the Indosiar and SCTV fantasy land and drowned in the real life demands and neccesities that doesn't give them a luxury to think/plan what should to expect and be done to 5 - 10 years ahead of them especially something so distant happening in the foreign lands .
The most realistic approaches that could be realistically be done only through strengtening the economies first and deal the rest of problems later ...

Sigh ...

I feel you, Kak Ravager. I fully understand why you curcol like this. Mostly, reality betrays our dreams and fantasies, especially in a world controlled by politicians. Lets see this time. Hehehe

 

[NEKO]

I am not sure about Jkw's commitment towards defense sector especially in his last moments as a president, but I know that he will go all out for the IKN (if we talk about legacy then there's that).

 

[Parry Brima]

Sorry, I don't understand that increasing the defense budget could be interpreted as political suicide. Moreover, this policy is to complete the MEF III target which will end next year, as well as to add Jokowi's legacy.

I think if President has the political will in the defense sector by increasing the 2024 defense budget, it will has relatively little impact on the people's political preferences and election results. It's relatively difficult for president and his coalition to directly capitalize the 2024 state budget to attract people's sympathy. The election will be held on Valentine's Day 2024, or the first quarter. The political campaign lasts for 75 days, starting in early December 2023. In the first quarter, it's very rare that programs or contracts have been completed.

If President wants to use the state budget and government programs to increase people's sympathy, then the opportunity is in 2023. And keep in mind, President Jokowi can't participate in 2024 presidential election.The latest survey also shows the president's approval rate is relatively very high. In several strategic policies, President also doesn't hesitate to take a different stance from PDIP.

I mean, to knock the president's forehead is to increase the defense budget by 2024, so that the MEF III target will be completed. Again, if President has the political will. This is all he needs.

Not just now, this has been a problem during the current President terms since 2014.

You simply can't sell the idea of increasing military budget to our voters without major clear understandable reasoning.

They'd ask the very simple question, "Are we at war? With who?"

Our "China loving Presdnt" has been unable to use SCS issue that much as he really craves China's money.

The fact that our current President has been directing our country to be the closest we are to China since Sukarno era doesn't help matters as well.

The key would be 2024 election.

 

[Qimpetmleteque]

I am not sure about Jkw's commitment towards defense sector especially in his last moments as a president, but I know that he will go all out for the IKN (if we talk about legacy then there's that).

Budget alocation for IKN development during 2020-2024 less than the budget proposed for Scorpene. State budget only for basic infrastructures and government facilities.

But I agree if President's commitment to defense sector needs to be questioned and continues to be encouraged.

 

[Qimpetmleteque]

Not just now, this has been a problem during the current President terms since 2014.

You simply can't sell the idea of increasing military budget to our voters without major clear understandable reasoning.

They'd ask the very simple question, "Are we at war? With who?"

Our "China loving Presdnt" has been unable to use SCS issue that much as he really craves China's money.

The fact that our current President has been directing our country to be the closest we are to China since Sukarno era doesn't help matters as well.

The key would be 2024 election.

If we refer to the data on our defense budget to GDP ratio, then we must honestly admit that this problem started since the collapse of Eyang Harto era. Not only the Jokowi era.

Defense and military issues will never attract voters attention if there is no open conflict. If the SCS issue only happen glares at and overshadows each other, it will never degrade economic and welfare issues.

I don't understand 'China loving president'. IMO, Jokowi is a pragmatic president. For the first time in history, since February 2023, our trade balance with China has been in surplus. Indonesia's exports to China are around 22% of our total exports. Investment from China largely supports the industrial downstream program which absorbs hundreds of thousands of workers in Indonesia.

Meanwhile, how much value of weapons we buy from China compared to the west or even South Korea?

 

[Parry Brima]

If we refer to the data on our defense budget to GDP ratio, then we must honestly admit that this problem started since the collapse of Eyang Harto era. Not only the Jokowi era.

In terms of percentage of GDP, our defense budget during Suharto era was actually higher. It's generally > 1% and reached >2% in the 1980's and even >3% in the 1970's.

After Suharto era we still tried to fix our economy after 1998 monetary crisis. So it's fully understandable. Also we reached $1 trillion economy only since 2017.

I don't understand 'China loving president'. IMO, Jokowi is a pragmatic president. For the first time in history, since February 2023, our trade balance with China has been in surplus. Indonesia's exports to China are around 22% of our total exports.

I hate to say it, but it's more about China in general has been having worse economic performance in this early 2023 than period before, than us performing well.

Also you have to wait until a full year to make conclusion in terms of the trade balance. If you only look at monthly balance, after Covid we actually hit at least seven times/months (2020-2022) surplus trade balance with China. Unfortunately, in the end we always recorded trade deficit with China in those years.

Meanwhile, how much value of weapons we buy from China compared to the west or even South Korea?

You brag about China weaponry after giving us measly $1.056 bil trade surplus in Jan-Feb 2023? Are you not aware that we've been giving them $130.7 BILLIONS in trade deficit since 2008?

They are the one who should spend more on Pindad, PT DI, PT PAL, etc products to counter their huge surplus instead of us buying from them.

 

[Madokafc]

Hmm, what's the next thing more useful for Indonesian Armed Forces campaign in Papua?

Kopasgat (Paskhas) several Times doing some succesfull raids against KKB base of operation, this usually using their Caracal and Super puma helicopters assets (which means France doesn't have issue with Indonesia using their products there), and also the Army Para Raider units and Puspenerbad also more able to inflict damage against KKB while doing Air Cavalry raids.

I mean KKB is very vulnerable against Air Cavalry type of raids when compared to light infantry type deployment the Army special command units favored as they (KKB) don't have meaningfull assets nor training and tactics for denying such capability and Indonesian has greater say there.

The cons is, the unforgiving Papua terrain and weather condition is unpredictable, means Air Cavalry operation is very dangerous and prone to accident just like Mi17 case years ago, especially for long range operation span hundreds kilometer area of operation.

Also, the deployment of UAS assets like Aerostar and other must be considered to be increased, while also build some organic recce / ISR capability in the regional command units.

There is also to put more emphasize and evaluation to change the rule of engagement there, to prevent the enemy using meat Shield tactics anymore by using civilian even kids and pregnant women....

 

[chiphocks]

Hmm, what's the next thing more useful for Indonesian Armed Forces campaign in Papua?

Kopasgat (Paskhas) several Times doing some succesfull raids against KKB base of operation, this usually using their Caracal and Super puma helicopters assets (which means France doesn't have issue with Indonesia using their products there), and also the Army Para Raider units and Puspenerbad also more able to inflict damage against KKB while doing Air Cavalry raids.

I mean KKB is very vulnerable against Air Cavalry type of raids when compared to light infantry type deployment the Army special command units favored as they (KKB) don't have meaningfull assets nor training and tactics for denying such capability and Indonesian has greater say there.

The cons is, the unforgiving Papua terrain and weather condition is unpredictable, means Air Cavalry operation is very dangerous and prone to accident just like Mi17 case years ago, especially for long range operation span hundreds kilometer area of operation.

Also, the deployment of UAS assets like Aerostar and other must be considered to be increased, while also build some organic recce / ISR capability in the regional command units.

There is also to put more emphasize and evaluation to change the rule of engagement there, to prevent the enemy using meat Shield tactics anymore by using civilian even kids and pregnant women....

i believe all those "no complaint things" are related to what happen when Indonesia trying to buy Russian SU-35 and all those logistical issue created by their alibi that Indonesia misused it to fight GAM.
They simply don't want to loose another "friend"

they have enough trouble with 2 super powers, Russian and China.
making a mess with another super (you fill it lah) is kind a dumb thing to do