Breaking News Iran Defense Facility Strike

[Tonyukuk]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1619473884822261761

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1619482281512673281

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1619467382224986113

Israel, Azerbaijan and Türkiye behind this?

 

[Agha Sher]

I don’t think Turkiye or Azerbaijan is even up for consideration.

Iran has allowed themselves to become a joke. Years of attacks without decisive or proportionate response. Their enemies are becoming more and more direct

 

[Oublious]

fire at an ammunition factory.

 

[Heartbang]

Azerbaijan and Türkiye

In the middle of winter? No way

 

[Agha Sher]

fire at an ammunition factory.

correction, the fire is at an oil facility and is believed to be due to an earthquake. There were explosions at a military facility but with no secondary explosions

 

[Kedikesenfare]

Why on earth should Turkey and Azerbaijan cooperate with Israel to attack Iran? What even makes you think like that?

@topic

Imagine Ukraine taking revenge for the delivery of Iranian drones to Russia...would be a delight to sit and watch.

 

[Tonyukuk]

Why on earth should Turkey and Azerbaijan cooperate with Israel to attack Iran? What even makes you think like that?

@topic

Imagine Ukraine taking revenge for the delivery of Iranian drones to Russia...would be a delight to sit and watch.

Why you ask?

• They have been increasing their support for Armenia
• Armenia is looking to buy Iranian drones
• Iran literally threatens Azerbaijan all the time
• There are literally 30 million Azerbaijanis in Iran
• IRGC may have had a hand in the terrorist attack against the Azerbaijan embassy just a few days ago
• Iran is trying to make nukes. If Iran actually manages to achieve this, a Turkic land corridor will become a dream.

Need I say more?

Why do you think Israel and Turkiye are friends again? Why is Israel constantly meeting with Azerbaijani and Turkish military officials.

 

[Ryder]

Israel has already been in contact with not just Turkiye and Azerbaijan but also Jordan and Saudi Arabia.

Israel is trying to form an Anti Iran coalition which makes sense with the countries they are keeping in contact with. Iran even accused Azerbaijan for allowing Mossad in their country.

 

[Tonyukuk]

Are such considerations enough to make Azerbaijan do a direct attack? I don't think so. Azerbaijan have direct border with Iran so the risk of getting invaded for retaliation is high. By just bombing a few small facilities, the risk simply outweigh the pros.

I don't know about Turkey.

But Israel? Israel is the most likely culprit among them. Israel has history of directly attacked Iran in the past. Israel directly attacked Iran again for the lulz is a no-brainer for them. Israel also has no direct border with Iran so the risk of getting invaded for retaliation is very small, Iran needs to invaded other countries first before getting to Israel. As I said previously, Iran in the past has got directly attacked by Israel a few times, but what Iran do? Did Iran directly attacked Israel? No, because Iran simply can't do it.

For Israel, attacking Iran is low risk high return. But for Iran, attacking Israel is high risk low return. You can easily saw who the most likely culprit among the three countries here.

I'm not saying that Azerbaijan is getting involved directly. But they are coordinating with Israel for sure. In fact I don't think Türkiye is getting involved directly either. But I think that Israel is coordinating this with both countries.

 

[Gary]

I'm not saying that Azerbaijan is getting involved directly. But they are coordinating with Israel for sure. In fact I don't think Türkiye is getting involved directly either. But I think that Israel is coordinating this with both countries.

Azerbaijan has direct land border with Iran , a better option for agents to enter Iran without having to deal with a Iran dominated government like in Iraq.

 

[v.Kruska]

I find it hard to believe that any country sharing a land border with Iran might be involved - the risk is simply to great.

As such aside from Israel, a probable outside culprit could very well be Saudi Arabia and/or the UAE - time will show.

 

[Mehmed Ali]

2 nasty countries apparently fighting. I really don't know why but it is now decades that these entities are bringing the world to the brink.

 

[Gary]

Anyway the Iranian defence circle were earlier mocking how Patriots SAM couldn't cope with their loitering munitions, now Iran IADS were humiliated by drones apparently. Esfahan is deep inside Iran.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1619515818991304704

I'm not betting on Iran if a full scale war were to commence. Iran IADS will be devastated the way Iraqi IADS were devastated in Desert Storm.

 

[v.Kruska]

I'm not betting on Iran if a full scale war were to commence. Iran IADS will be devastated the way Iraqi IADS were devastated in Desert Storm.

"Full scale war" - between Iran and supposedly who?

 

[Gary]

"Full scale war" - between Iran and supposedly who?

With any opposition of significance.

 

[v.Kruska]

With any opposition of significance.

Okay - but I do not see any viable land-neighboring country that could put up a "significant" military opposition towards Iran either.

 

[Gary]

Okay - but I do not see any viable neighboring country that could put up a "significant" military opposition towards Iran either.

Let's see, if Iran foreign policy and belligerent action could unify the GCC and Israel we could be talking IAF taking the fight to Iran proper from Saudi, UAE, Kuwaiti airbase. Israeli F-35s and F-15 fleet would (not merely could) devastate the IRIAF and go for Iran nuclear infrastructure and missile launchers.

The problem with IAF going for Iran nuclear sites has always been the tyranny of distance. They seems to have overcome those but having access to GCC country airbase in the gulf could be a huge help.

Report: Israeli F-35s penetrated Iranian airspace repeatedly during war drills

London-based Saudi news outlet says drones and mid-air refueling aircraft took part in exercises, managed to avoid Russian and Iranian sensors

www.timesofisrael.com

the combined might of the GCC and Israel is not something Iran could likely cope.

 

[v.Kruska]

Maybe you did not notice the "land-neighboring" remark of mine, as such that would exclude a scenario involving Israel.
That there are ongoing efforts to establish a Gulf State alliance with the in-cooperation of IDF military assets is certainly a valid argument - but who knows when or if it will ever happen.
So excluding e.g. Israel and the USA - there is IMO no "capable military threat - of significance" by any of Iran's land-bordering neighbors.
Which leads to my present assumption, that the drone strike towards Iran was not performed by a land-neighboring country.

Let's see what the news/media might come up with in the next weeks to follow.

 

[Bogeyman]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1619656577509908480

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1619657281318027269

The United States is said to have claimed responsibility for the explosions in Iran.
The attack could also be a finger of Ukraine.

 

[dBSPL]

Why do you feel the need to associate it with a foreign country?

The boiler is boiling inside Iran itself. who sows wind will reap storm.