Breaking News Iran-Israel Tensions

Zafer

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If you are confident the bomb will do what it is designed for why test it and alarm the world.
 

Zafer

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To intimidate any attempt at invasion.
Leaving it unconfessed can be intimidating too unless an imminent invasive action is already anticipated. Any action against Iran by the US is also objectionable by Türkiye, we will not let the US have their way in our region.
 

NEKO

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Playing ambiguity game could be good or bad, depends on how to play it.
It could offer some detterence, or could end up like Iraq (got invaded because of non-existent WMD).

Israel also playing ambiguity game about their nuclear weapon but many believed they really have it.
 

Gary

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Playing ambiguity game could be good or bad, depends on how to play it.
It could offer some detterence, or could end up like Iraq (got invaded because of non-existent WMD).

Israel also playing ambiguity game about their nuclear weapon but many believed they really have it.

I would like to see an American repetition of Iraq in Iran, that will drag the entire middle East upside down. The only way I could think of to degrade American power is through constant warfare, and invasion of Iran would trigger just that, but larger than the previous 20 years.

A war in Europe, wars in MENA and ended with war in Asia and you'll see the American ability to sustain their enforced world order crumble.
 

Nilgiri

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W.r.t Iranian bomb, It is not simple matter of bringing enrichment from the 80% "hold" currently done in its stockpile and centrifuge series to say 90%+ (for a bomb). There is the significant extra step of then changing the cooled HEU hexafluoride to uranium metal again and then processing of the HEU metal into a bomb.

i.e way too many people assume the leap from 80% to 90% is the final piece of the puzzle, it is not.

The issue with Iran's nuclear bomb production realization is thus hampered severely due to IAEA regime it is under, combined with the uranium (i.e HEU gas centrifuge) route elected for (this was the only expedient option on the AQ Khan tech transfer):

- Iran is an NPT signatory, i.e subscribes to IAEA safeguard program and inspection.

- There are significant signatures that would become apparent to IAEA inspectors (and others remotely sensing even) regarding hexafluoride -> metal -> bomb material

- The significant RnD involved in these final stages and detection signatures for those too. i.e example what China provided Pakistan in the 80's (direct materials involved).

- The logistical penalties of trying to move the bomb production away from UF6 production area ( like Saddam Hussein tried to continue for a longer term capability retention after Osirak was destroyed, that was detected and forms basis of many of these signatures IAEA et al monitors now). There is reason countries with nuclear bomb capability, using the Uf6 gas centrifuge route, keep these concentrated in one location. There has been no alarming remote sensing of the expansions needed in Iran's facilities.

- i.e we would be hearing about this for a few years already if something taking place in the final crucial stages.

So afif and others are correct its very unlikely.

Another short summary:

 

wolveray1

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NEKO

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Actually its a good thing.
It will be a justification for Saudi Arabia and Turkiye to built their own nukes too .
Won't this become justification for Greece to have their own nukes?
 

NEKO

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Actually its a good thing.
It will be a justification for Saudi Arabia and Turkiye to built their own nukes too .
Greece is under the protection umbrella of US,France and EU.
Turkiye also under the protection of NATO nuclear umbrella, even have nuclear sharing with the US.

Is it necessary for Turkiye to have their own nukes?
 

Saithan

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Turkiye also under the protection of NATO nuclear umbrella, even have nuclear sharing with the US.

Is it necessary for Turkiye to have their own nukes?
The short answer is Yes.

I assume that you have seen how our so called allies have been treating us, and they could do far worse. So if nukes are ultimate deterrent then that is what we need.

Look at what happened with Ukraine. They even gave up their nukes in the past.

And Türkiye is most definitely not surrounded by friendly nations.
 
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