Analysis Is the PLA Navy actually larger numerically than the US Navy???

[Gary]

So there's many talks on how the PLA Navy had (numerically) overtake the US Navy as the largest Armada worldwide, off course there are other ways to measure a Navy strength and size, such as tonnage and/or VLS counts.

But now the accepted wisdom is that the PLA Navy had more ships than the US Navy by quite a margin.

it is estimated that the PLA Navy had 360 warships

Since the release of the Department of Defense’s “2020 China Military Power Report” this past September, much has been made of China’s securing the title of the “world’s largest navy.” Indeed, the United States Office of Naval Intelligence has confirmed that the People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) has surpassed the United States Navy in total battle force ships, approximately 360

Yes, China Has the World’s Largest Navy. That Matters Less Than You Might Think.

China’s fleet relies disproportionately on smaller classes of ships – and U.S. capabilities are bolstered by its allies’ navies.

thediplomat.com

Personally I don't think this is true at all, basically there's a difference on how the US and China count their number of ships. In China's way eerything from warships , auxiliary, transports as well as hospital ship are counted as active PLAN assets.

List of ships of the People's Liberation Army Navy - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

OTOH, the US Navy separated their ships based on prefix designation, that is the USS and the USNS.

Commissioned warships in the USN are labelled USS , USS is a ship prefix used to identify a commissioned ship of the United States Navy and applies to a ship only while it is in commission. while In-service but non-commissioned Navy ships go by the prefix USNS, which stands for United States Naval Ship..

there are a total of 254 Commissioned warships (Carriers, cruisers, destroyers, LPD, LHD, SSN, SSGN, SSBN etc....)

List of currently active United States military watercraft - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

while there are 216 ships with USNS prefix (Logistics, Tankers and ammunitions ships, Hospital ships, fast expeditionary vessels etc....)

List of Military Sealift Command ships - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

for a grand total of 470 Ships in US Navy inventory.

 

[Gary]

please share your thoughts, am I missing something???....it just doesn't add up.

 

[Philips]

I think the best metric to compare navy sizes is total tonnage.

 

[Anmdt]

So there's many talks on how the PLA Navy had (numerically) overtake the US Navy as the largest Armada worldwide, off course there are other ways to measure a Navy strength and size, such as tonnage and/or VLS counts.

But now the accepted wisdom is that the PLA Navy had more ships than the US Navy by quite a margin.

it is estimated that the PLA Navy had 360 warships

Yes, China Has the World’s Largest Navy. That Matters Less Than You Might Think.

China’s fleet relies disproportionately on smaller classes of ships – and U.S. capabilities are bolstered by its allies’ navies.

thediplomat.com

Personally I don't think this is true at all, basically there's a difference on how the US and China count their number of ships. In China's way eerything from warships , auxiliary, transports as well as hospital ship are counted as active PLAN assets.

List of ships of the People's Liberation Army Navy - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

OTOH, the US Navy separated their ships based on prefix designation, that is the USS and the USNS.

Commissioned warships in the USN are labelled USS , USS is a ship prefix used to identify a commissioned ship of the United States Navy and applies to a ship only while it is in commission. while In-service but non-commissioned Navy ships go by the prefix USNS, which stands for United States Naval Ship..

there are a total of 254 Commissioned warships (Carriers, cruisers, destroyers, LPD, LHD, SSN, SSGN, SSBN etc....)

List of currently active United States military watercraft - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

while there are 216 ships with USNS prefix (Logistics, Tankers and ammunitions ships, Hospital ships, fast expeditionary vessels etc....)

List of Military Sealift Command ships - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

for a grand total of 470 Ships in US Navy inventory.

If i am not mistaken,
USNS is the prefix used by ships serving for the Navy but with either civilian or mixed crew under military sealift command
USS ships operated entirely by navy personnel.

I think as you have realized they have only counted USS prefix and assumed PLAN uses the same kind of difference.

 

[Saithan]

There are several articles about the PLAN, and especially the militia fisherman force they've develop.

I think given the situation on Philippines island where these so called fishermen have shored up is enough proof of the problem. I think it's vital to make sure these fishermen er escorted out of Philippines islands.

These fishermen may not have the same force as fully born Navy, but their function is still very dangerous and harmful to countries like Phiippines, Vietnam etc.

Especially considering that China has empowered their Coast Guard to actually shoot at other vessels within the so called South China sea.

China's coast guard can now shoot on foreign vessels if needed & destroy structures in disputed waters

An aircraft carrier group was sent by the U.S. to the South China Sea two days after the law was passed.

mothership.sg

Several articles on this topic has been posted

 

[Anmdt]

I think the best metric to compare navy sizes is total tonnage.

I think what matters is the strategic missile + sensor count.
or using some hybrid measures like;
strategic missiles per tonnage or power input of sensors per tonnage in kW/tons.

 

[Gary]

If i am not mistaken,
USNS is the prefix used by ships serving for the Navy but with either civilian or mixed crew under military sealift command
USS ships operated entirely by navy personnel.

I think as you have realized they have only counted USS prefix and assumed PLAN uses the same kind of difference.

this ships are classified as USNS, I don't think they're civillian manned .

USNS Leroy Grumman

USNS Loyal

 

[Anmdt]

this ships are classified as USNS, I don't think they're civillian manned .

USNS Leroy Grumman

USNS Loyal

I meant the personnel is being civilian not the operator,they may not be enlisted but hired by navy to operate those vessels.
It may not be the entire personnel too, maybe just chief engineer, captain is ranked personnel while rest being civilian crew.

TBH i have rarely seen civilian personnel on a USS vessel rather in some supporting role (in gallery, cleaning,maintenance etc) while many in USNS vessels in active roles (engineer, operator etc).

 

[xizhimen]

Now US still enjoys advantage, but with China's unrivaled shipbuilding capacity, China can easily outbuild US in the near future.

The US Navy needs to admit it can’t outbuild China | The Strategist

The most often quoted line of the ancient Chinese strategist Sun Tzu is that ‘supreme excellence consists in breaking the enemy’s resistance without fighting’. By that measure, the Chinese Communist Party and the People’s Liberation ...

www.aspistrategist.org.au

 

[Anmdt]

Now US still enjoys advantage, but with China's unrivaled shipbuilding capacity, China can easily outbuild US in the near future.

The US Navy needs to admit it can’t outbuild China | The Strategist

The most often quoted line of the ancient Chinese strategist Sun Tzu is that ‘supreme excellence consists in breaking the enemy’s resistance without fighting’. By that measure, the Chinese Communist Party and the People’s Liberation ...

www.aspistrategist.org.au

Numbers mean a little when experience and expertise on weapon systems matters the most at an actual encounter.
US has mastered weapon and command systems for 15, near to 20 years those Chinese have been developing and putting into the service recently.
They can't outnumber Chinese naval assets in near future, but they will have the superiority until China gains sufficient expertise which is at least 10 to 20 years.
But it is inevitable, PLAN will eventually surpass USN both in number and quality in long term.

 

[Gary]

Numbers mean a little when experience and expertise on weapon systems matters the most at an actual encounter.
US has mastered weapon and command systems for 15, near to 20 years those Chinese have been developing and putting into the service recently.
They can't outnumber Chinese naval assets in near future, but they will have the superiority until China gains sufficient expertise which is at least 10 to 20 years.
But it is inevitable, PLAN will eventually surpass USN both in number and quality in long term.

that is if they could continue building.

The Chinese Navy Can’t Grow Forever—The Slowdown Might Start Soon

It takes a lot of time, money and manpower to maintain a big fleet. And even in China, those resources are finite.

www.forbes.com

 

[xizhimen]

that is if they could continue building.

The Chinese Navy Can’t Grow Forever—The Slowdown Might Start Soon

It takes a lot of time, money and manpower to maintain a big fleet. And even in China, those resources are finite.

www.forbes.com

They have to have this massive industry and complete supply chain , which they did have during the past but not now, we'll see who eventually outbuilds who.

 

[Anmdt]

They have to have this massive industry and complete supply chain , which they did have during the past but not now, we'll see who eventually outbuilds who.

US has decent naval shipbuilding capacity, as well as a niche industry which can literally build everything they can dream of.
While majority of Chinese shipbuilding is commercial cost-effective oriented and have been learning military shipbuilding relatively new compared to the US.

 

[Gary]

They have to have this massive industry and complete supply chain , which they did have during the past but not now, we'll see who eventually outbuilds who.

we'll look up to it, but China is not expected to cross 400 ships threshold until 2025, while the US is currently at 470 ships, and they're still building.

and the USN isn't idle either, here's some ships that will be commissioned to the fleet in 3 years or so:

Ship name	Hull number	Class	Type	Keel date	Launch date	Note
Agamenticus	YT-809	Rainier	Harbor tug			[496][497]
Apalachicola	T-EPF-13	Spearhead	Expeditionary fast transport	21 Jan 2021		[498]
Arkansas	SSN-800	Virginia	Attack submarine			[499]
Augusta	LCS-34	Independence	Littoral combat ship			[500]
Beloit	LCS-29	Freedom	Littoral combat ship	22 Jul 2020		[501]
Bougainville	LHA-8	America	Amphibious assault ship	14 Mar 2019		[502]
Canberra	LCS-30	Independence	Littoral combat ship	10 Mar 2020	30 Mar 2021	[503]
Carl M. Levin	DDG-120	Arleigh Burke	Destroyer	1 Feb 2019		[504][505]
Cherokee Nation	T-ATS-7	Navajo	Towing, salvage and rescue ship	12 Feb 2020		[506][507][508]
Cleveland	LCS-31	Freedom	Littoral combat ship			[509]
Cody	T-EPF-14	Spearhead	Expeditionary fast transport			[510]
Columbia	SSBN-826	Columbia	Ballistic missile submarine			[511][512]
Cooperstown	LCS-23	Freedom	Littoral combat ship	14 Aug 2018	19 Jan 2020	[513]
Daniel Inouye	DDG-118	Arleigh Burke	Destroyer	14 May 2018	27 Oct 2019	[514]
Deception	YT-810	Rainier	Harbor tug			[515][497]
Earl Warren	T-AO-207	John Lewis	Replenishment oiler			[516][517]
Enterprise	CVN-80	Gerald R. Ford	Aircraft carrier			[518][519]
Fort Lauderdale	LPD-28	San Antonio	Amphibious transport dock	13 Oct 2017	28 Mar 2020	[520]
Frank E. Petersen Jr.	DDG-121	Arleigh Burke	Destroyer	21 Feb 2017	13 Jul 2018	[521]
Harrisburg	LPD-30	San Antonio	Amphibious transport dock			[522][523]
Harvey C. Barnum Jr.	DDG-124	Arleigh Burke	Destroyer	6 Apr 2021		[524]
Harvey Milk	T-AO-206	John Lewis	Replenishment oiler	3 Sep 2020		[525]
Hyman G. Rickover	SSN-795	Virginia	Attack submarine	11 May 2018		[526]
Idaho	SSN-799	Virginia	Attack submarine	24 Aug 2020		[527]
Iowa	SSN-797	Virginia	Attack submarine	20 Aug 2019		[528]
Jack H. Lucas	DDG-125	Arleigh Burke	Destroyer	8 Nov 2019		[529]
Jeremiah Denton	DDG-129	Arleigh Burke	Destroyer			[530]
John Basilone	DDG-122	Arleigh Burke	Destroyer	10 Jan 2020		[531]
John F. Kennedy	CVN-79	Gerald R. Ford	Aircraft carrier	22 Aug 2015	29 Oct 2019	[532]
John L. Canley	ESB-6	Montford Point	Expeditionary mobile base			[533]
John Lewis	T-AO-205	John Lewis	Replenishment oiler	13 May 2019	12 Jan 2021	[534]
Kingsville	LCS-36	Independence	Littoral combat ship			[535]
Lenah H. Sutcliffe Higbee	DDG-123	Arleigh Burke	Destroyer	14 Nov 2017	27 Jan 2020	[536]
Louis H. Wilson Jr.	DDG-126	Arleigh Burke	Destroyer			[537]
Lyndon B. Johnson	DDG-1002	Zumwalt	Destroyer	30 Jan 2017	9 Dec 2018	[538][539]
Marinette	LCS-25	Freedom	Littoral combat ship	27 Mar 2019	31 Oct 2020	[540]
Massachusetts	SSN-798	Virginia	Attack submarine	11 Dec 2020		[541]
Minneapolis-Saint Paul	LCS-21	Freedom	Littoral combat ship	22 Feb 2018	15 Jun 2019	[542]
Mobile	LCS-26	Independence	Littoral combat ship	14 Dec 2018	11 Jan 2020	[543]
Montana	SSN-794	Virginia	Attack submarine	16 May 2018	10 Feb 2021	[544]
Nantucket	LCS-27	Freedom	Littoral combat ship	9 Oct 2019		[545]
Navajo	T-ATS-6	Navajo	Towing, salvage and rescue ship	30 Oct 2019		[546][547][548]
New Jersey	SSN-796	Virginia	Attack submarine	25 Mar 2019		[549]
Oregon	SSN-793	Virginia	Attack submarine	8 Jul 2017		[550]
Patrick Gallagher	DDG-127	Arleigh Burke	Destroyer			[551][552]
Richard M. McCool Jr.	LPD-29	San Antonio	Amphibious transport dock	12 Apr 2019		[553][554]
Santa Barbara	LCS-32	Independence	Littoral combat ship	27 Oct 2020		[555]
Savannah	LCS-28	Independence	Littoral combat ship	20 Sep 2019		[556]
Ted Stevens	DDG-128	Arleigh Burke	Destroyer			[557]
Utah	SSN-801	Virginia	Attack submarine			[558]
William Charette	DDG-130	Arleigh Burke	Destroyer			[559]

 

[xizhimen]

US has decent naval shipbuilding capacity, as well as a niche industry which can literally build everything they can dream of.
While majority of Chinese shipbuilding is commercial cost-effective oriented and have been learning military shipbuilding relatively new compared to the US.

I admit US still enjoys edge over China in this field, but China is closing the gap with her vast industrial and manufacturing prowess, so in the future China can turn the tables, don't foreget China just started navy building in couples of year, now already has the largest navy.

 

[xizhimen]

China’s navy shipbuilders are ‘outbuilding everybody’

China's navy shipbuilders are 'outbuilding everybody' - Asia Times

Welcome to another headache for the Pentagon — it appears China has grasped accelerated shipbuilding technologies and related aircraft development as its

asiatimes.com

 

[Anmdt]

China’s navy shipbuilders are ‘outbuilding everybody’

China's navy shipbuilders are 'outbuilding everybody' - Asia Times

Welcome to another headache for the Pentagon — it appears China has grasped accelerated shipbuilding technologies and related aircraft development as its

asiatimes.com

China should keep at this pace to catch the US Navy, even in tonnage.

 

[Gary]

China’s navy shipbuilders are ‘outbuilding everybody’

China's navy shipbuilders are 'outbuilding everybody' - Asia Times

Welcome to another headache for the Pentagon — it appears China has grasped accelerated shipbuilding technologies and related aircraft development as its

asiatimes.com

it has receded since then

 

[Anmdt]

I admit US still enjoys edge over China in this field, but China is closing the gap with her vast industrial and manufacturing prowess, so in the future China can turn the tables, don't foreget China just started navy building in couples of year, now already has the largest navy.

It will need some time, experience and knowledge does not grow on trees. China will need to pour more and more money to keep it up with US in terms of the technology.

 

[xizhimen]

It will need some time, experience and knowledge does not grow on trees. China will need to pour more and more money to keep it up with US in terms of the technology.

Sure, China doesn't intends to rule the world, we just need a navy enough to defend ourselves, while US has to deploy their military assets all around the world, Putin just said US is a new USSR, it's very true, US will follow USSR's step and buckle under its own weight.