I dont know why but I believe that Iran's response will be utterly worthless tbh
We have seen these events for years, Iran's retaliation against those who manage to kill Iran's top officials have been underwhelming such as during Qassim Sulaymanli's death (if I remember his name right
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Iran is like a bully; it will exert its power and influence on those who are weaker than it but will remain silent and bend the knee towards those who are stronger than it. Now here is the catch, whichever country that manages to kill such Iranian officials is by no means an easy nation and that is why such nations normally get a PASS ticket from Iran even after what they have done
Till date, I never saw any real Iranian retaliation against USA forces other than some third rate CG-animated videos and some bombs and rockets that miraculously only hit the areas that doesnt contain either Israeli or US soldiers
In summary, Israel is carrying out such strikes knowing very well that Iran wont be able to do anything in retaliation...... the Jews arent stupid for gods sake
I get your point.
Iran's stance is not exactly bending the knee. Most of the people expect a conventional response in the way of Iranian military strike, but the reality is that Iran is counting on its unconventional force for these things. Conventional military strikes are done mainly against weaker forces or actors from which a military response is not expected as you said. I would say nobody should expect something major to happen from nothing.
They are giving priority to their unconventional force and rely on low intensity, prolonged conflicts which they exploit. They are working on a long term strategy rather than relying on short term tactical victories. The result of this work is there. Iraqi and Syrian governments are to a big extend an Iranian puppet, Iranian unconventional forces exert extreme amount of influence in all of the region, the situation in Yemen is another indicator, the US is leaving Iraq, Israel is suffering militarily and politically, every country in the region has to act in coordination with Iran or they risk their interests to be directly targeted (deterrence). They also have almost unlimited amount of volunteers.
What Iran fails is that they are unable to protect their high level command and fortunately for Israel the Iranian unconventional force on the ground heavily relies on support in a way of high level IRGC officials coordinating and directing the work from their safe houses which are often close to the hot zones and the advisory force that is making sure every directive of the IRGC command is applied in the best way possible which is again often deployed together with the unconventional force. Such officers are not produced in a 6 months training. It takes years of specialized training and experience in order to be able to command and control such a vast structure with all its military, logistical and technical elements. Iranian proxies are not like the guerilla in Colombia, or the militia member in Mali. We are talking a completely different level here that requires different level of specialization of the commanding officers.
Unconventional forces can be compared with fleas. It bites you on the leg, then on the neck, then on the head, on your groin, it continues to bite you to a level where you start to scratch everywhere, become emotionally unstable, trying to find the flea and scratch at the same time. It makes you act spontaneously, jumping, scratching, getting crazy and in the end you just throw your clothes and get under the shower. What is the equivalent of spontaneously throwing your clothes and getting in the shower in an unconventional conflict? The spontaneous and unorganized US withdrawal of Afghanistan is a good example.
In result of Iranian unconventional warfare strategy the US will leave Iraq, rumors are circulating regarding Syria and it may continue. What is the end game for the US? Cessation of Iranian malign influence in the Middle East? How are they going to achieve this? For sure not trough a conventional military operations. The only way is trough a swift change of the regime in Iran.
A common point of Iranian and Israeli internal political dynamics in the moment is the importance that public dissatisfaction with its military operations represents. The political clock for both is ticking, its just that the Israeli clock is ticking faster. At the moment the military activities of both are mainly supported by radicals.
Third world countries potential must not be neglected or underestimated in any way. I am sure Iranians can eat bread and salt, manufacture "martyrs" and watching TV on a 90s model square box TV for longer than Israelis for example. Military and economic damage is felt differently due to the difference of standard of life and military culture. Population number also plays a role here.
What I mean with this text is that Iran is not a country that will bend its knees because 2-3 or thirty generals died. Yes, there is a short term damage that will compromise and slow down some of the work on the field, but this will not stop. All these developments that we see in the region are related to a big extend to a 40 years long Iranian strategic expansion campaign and little of the work was done trough the means of conventional Iranian military force or in a matter of days.
