Live Conflict Israel-Palestine War|Regional Escalations

[Relic]

As always, Your numbers are inflated. US carrier wing consists of 44 fighters. Not 80, for good reason. Italy and Morocco is too far away and has no relevance for fighter ops. Bombers cam be flown from anywhere but those are stand-off. Keeping tankers over Syria and Lebanon is gonna be risky and require expanding the war to both countries.

U.S. CVNs actually have the capacity to carry up to 130'ish F-18 Super Bugs simultaneously. They can keep their standard air wing in the fight, but they can absolutely be used as recovery platforms for naval strike aircraft that are launched from elsewhere. You could easily see a scenario in which F-18s and F-35s launch from Southern Europe, refuel, carry out their missions and recover on U.S. Carriers. They could then refuel, and head back to their respective bases in southern Europe to refit and rearm, before carrying out their missions again. I used the number "80" as an idea of how many aircraft that I think could operate off of each carrier in the manner I described above. I chose a number that is a little less than double a standard air wing, as a modern CVN has no problem physically recovering significantly more aircraft than are found in its conventional air wing.

Aviano absolutely is not too far away... You can absolutely refuel strike aircraft over Israel / the Mediterranean and have them launch hundreds of JASSMs / JASSM-ER into Iran (Syrian air space would not be respected), as well as virtually unlimited PGMs and other munitions on Hezbollah in Lebanon. Again, the idea would not be to try to destroy Iran. That's silly. The idea would be to devastate Lebanon (Hezbollah) from the air along with the IAF, while Israeli troops attacked north on the ground, while doing meaningful damage to Iran's coastal infrastructure in both the north and the south, in response to their direct strikes on Israel.

 

[Bogeyman]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1820746636244742426

 

[Knowledgeseeker]

USA would still have the following options (just to mame a few) to launch hundreds of air sorties each day in support of Israeli air force and ground forces...
Israeli Air Force Bases (Israel)
Aviano Air Force Base (Italy)
Akrotiri Air Force Base (Cypress)
NSA Souda Bay (Greece)
NSA Port Lyautney (Morocco)

Morocco do not host any foreign force on its territory, and have rejected the presence of a couple of world powers in the past.( Both naval ports, aswell as air bases).

The name you mentioned was a name that present when Morocco was a protecrate. The name of the airbase is Kenitra airbase.

 

[Bogeyman]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1820885668480086530

 

[Scott Summers]

Katz again attacked our President, and this time he addes Imamoglu and Mansur Yavaş to.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1820745033516998797

 

[Scott Summers]

Morocco do not host any foreign force on its territory, and have rejected the presence of a couple of world powers in the past.( Both naval ports, aswell as air bases).

The name you mentioned was a name that present when Morocco was a protecrate. The name of the airbase is Kenitra airbase.

It's Relic, his statements are almost always false. Get used to it.

 

[Scott Summers]

Congratulations!

Yahya Sinwar is the new appointed President of the Palestinian people!

("The victors are not the ones with armies, but with courage")

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1820889358742028759

 

[Ryder]

Katz again attacked our President, and this time he addes Imamoglu and Mansur Yavaş to.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1820745033516998797

They always play the anti semitic card or the holocaust card lmaooo

 

[Bogeyman]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1821205696320282957

 

[Bogeyman]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1821142141847974207

 

[UkroTurk]

Egypt banned flights over İran tonight from 1 to 4 o'clock.

Will something happen tonight?

 

[Bogeyman]

View attachment 69993

Egypt banned flights over İran tonight from 1 to 4 o'clock.

Will something happen tonight?

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1821238316852727990

 

[Bogeyman]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1821142141847974207

 

[Corvus]

Israel, contrary to the common perception of being "strong and indestructible," is actually quite a fragile country.

Putting aside internal strife and conflicts, their damaged image globally, and being surrounded by hostile nations, Israel is an incredibly small country.

Without visiting, one cannot comprehend what it means to have such a small & flat territory with a low population and how significant this is in war. That's why people fall for Israel's propaganda of being very powerful.

In reality, though Israel's borders are not well-defined, it currently constitutes about 3% of Turkey's size. From the city of Qalqilya in the West Bank, the distance to cross all of Israel to reach the Mediterranean is a mere 14 km as the crow flies! You can reach the Mediterranean shores with a brisk 4-5 hour walk from the West Bank hills to Tel Aviv.

A motivated, large group of men willing to risk death could, using blitzkrieg tactics, spread throughout Israel very quickly and bring the country to the brink of collapse. If Israel reaches the brink of collapse, it will definitely collapse because what keeps Israel standing is the perception that it is indestructible. This is the reason for their reaction to the Al-Aqsa Flood operation on October 7.

They are extremely aware of their vulnerabilities and are committing genocide, taking on the entire world, to ensure no one attempts something similar again. Yes, this is genocide, and the elimination of Palestinians, who make up about 50% of the "Greater Israel" region, is a matter of survival for Israel.

Looking at the current situation quite realistically, I don't see a good end for Israel. Moreover, many Israelis are now starting to consider the possibility of collapse. They may not directly admit it, but if you get close to them sincerely, you'll see that many harbor such fears and are making escape plans.

 

[SilverMachine]

Well, I mean...

Yeah, good luck with that absolute fantasy.

Look, nobody disputes that if in some completely-unreal-hypothetical land that Iran, Syria, Turkey, Iraq, Yemen all got together, maybe somehow flipped the Egyptians & Jordanians & Emiratis to be on-side, that they could theoretically overrun Israel in a land invasion.

No shit. Thing is, that's never coming to pass, the latter three have bigger antipathy toward Iran than Israel for one.

And, even discarding the whole "if it came to that the US and half of Europe would be intervening, boots on the ground - and they absolutely would" factor, surely you're aware Israel has nukes, right? You can take their small, relatively-flat-and-low homeland in some hail mary suicide run, maybe a 10% chance of pulling it off it your crazy-ass leaders by some miracle become actually competent for the first time ever.

A half hour later the entire region's glass.

Even crazy middle-eastern dictators aren't so hot on that future for their people. Not. Gonna. Happen.

 

[Fuzuli NL]

Nagasaki defends decision not to invite Israel to atomic bomb memorial

US, UK and other countries say they will send lower-level officials to ceremony that will take place on Friday.

www.aljazeera.com

 

[YeşilVatan]

Well, I mean...

Yeah, good luck with that absolute fantasy.

Look, nobody disputes that if in some completely-unreal-hypothetical land that Iran, Syria, Turkey, Iraq, Yemen all got together, maybe somehow flipped the Egyptians & Jordanians & Emiratis to be on-side, that they could theoretically overrun Israel in a land invasion.

No shit. Thing is, that's never coming to pass, the latter three have bigger antipathy toward Iran than Israel for one.

And, even discarding the whole "if it came to that the US and half of Europe would be intervening, boots on the ground - and they absolutely would" factor, surely you're aware Israel has nukes, right? You can take their small, relatively-flat-and-low homeland in some hail mary suicide run, maybe a 10% chance of pulling it off it your crazy-ass leaders by some miracle become actually competent for the first time ever.

A half hour later the entire region's glass.

Even crazy middle-eastern dictators aren't so hot on that future for their people. Not. Gonna. Happen.

Well it's not very far fetched to imagine US having some crazy crisis with budget, debt or elections. Then regional powers may show more teeth against Israel. But overall I agree with your conclusion. There are nukes at play, Israel is here to stay. My hope is Israel and regional powers solve this at the negotiating table.

IF Israelis actually use nuclear weapons, then they effectively forfeit the existence of their state. No country of that size with an advanced economy can survive without international trade. And a worldwide trade embargo would be the absolute minimum. Just Azerbaijanis cutting off the oil supply or Egypt refusing ships from Suez would cripple Israel. And American support in that case should not be taken for granted. Even with all their lobbying power, their hold on US policymakers got much, much weaker.

Let's assume we got over this crisis. Jewish Israeli society will move to the right due to the imbalance between ultra-orthodox birthrates and secular birthrates. There is also Israeli Arab birthrates which further complicates things. 15 years later we will be looking at a similar, if not worse situation.

A proper fkn mess. I hate everything about this issue. There's no way to solve it in a good way.

 

[Kartal1]

Attention!

We see that with the important processes that the whole region is going trough, all the tension formed and the usage of excessive force of the parties in this conflict there is a gap and opportunity where people with unclean intentions, radical views and ideologies can exert influence and spread propaganda in favor of extremism.

We want to reiterate our firm position on these matters, use the opportunity to condemn all forms of extremism and terrorism, no matter the religious belief, ethnicity or political motivation. We also want to reiterate our support for the peaceful resolution of this conflict on the basis of the United Nations Security Council Resolutions 242, 338, 1397 and 1515, the principle of land for peace, the Arab Peace Initiative and the Road Map that would ensure two states living side by side within secure and recognized borders.

On the issue of forum rule offenses I am obliged to inform and warn you that propagating in favor of a radical, extremist and terrorist ideologies brings consequences and our team is instructed to react in a swift and firm way in order to deter any try for malign influence or actions in favor of extremist/terrorist organizations.

Propagating, in favor of extremism, any form of radical ideology and terrorism may result in immediate permanent ban without warning!



Thank you!

 

[Kartal1]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1821630590258405603

 

[Kartal1]

New and interesting details on the Biden administration's last-ditch effort to reach a Gaza hostage and ceasefire deal:

A senior U.S. official told reporters that the decision to publish the joint statement and convene the summit next week was the result of the phone calls President Biden had on Tuesday with the Emir of Qatar and the President of Egypt. The U.S. official said that convening a summit was a proposal of the Egyptians and Qataris and President Biden supported it

The U.S. official said that before the summit on Thursday, there will be preparatory talks by teams from all sides to lay the ground

"On Thursday the negotiations will be resumed. We do not expect to reach an agreement on Thursday. This is a beginning and not an end. There is an urgency to get this process back on track," the U.S. official said

The U.S. official noted that gaps remain in four or five issues related to the implementation of the hostage and ceasefire deal and that both sides have tough positions on these issues

He stressed that if by Thursday there is no closing of gaps between Israel and Hamas and if the U.S., Egypt and Qatar think it could help - they might present a bridging proposal to close the gaps

“The gaps that remain are bridgeable and we don't have time to lose,” the U.S. official said. "We had deep discussions with the Israelis this week. We think there is a way forward. Israel and Hamas will have to make decisions. Most of the work has been done and the deal is on the table - and it is possible to get a deal. There are lives on the line”.

The U.S. official said that the invitation to the summit is not directly related to the regional tensions with Iran and Hezbollah and emphasized that it is necessary to reach a deal for the release of hostages and a ceasefire in Gaza regardless

"But Iran has publicly stated that if there is a ceasefire in Gaza it may affect its position. If they start on a major war in the Middle East and launch an attack on Israel, it will jeopardize any chance of achieving a ceasefire in Gaza”, the U.S. official said

He further emphasized that there is no legitimate basis for Iran to launch a military attack against Israel. "The consequences of such an attack would be serious for Iran and its economy," the U.S. official said

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1821680861575590101