Live Conflict Israel-Palestine War|Regional Escalations

contricusc

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I have to push back on this. I'm going to use a hypothetical that I would like you to engage with.

How many times would that have to happen to you before you'd want Country B to elect their own "psychopath", willing to go to war and inevitably trade the lives of his civilians, to push back the psychopath annexing their territory?

I’m not saying a country shouldn’t defend itself from aggression. What I am questioning is conscription-based armies who defend the country against their will. If the country can get enough volunteers to fight a war and defend, they should go for it, but the moment you resort to draft/conscription you turn into a monster and are no diffrent than the attacker.

In Ukraine’s case for example, I am sure they would have found enough volunteers to defend Kyiv, but it would be more problematic to find volunteers for a protracted war in the Donbas or for retaking Crimea, because a lot of Ukrainians don’t care much about those territories (since they have always been partially Russian).

As long as your army is made only by volunteers or professionals, it’s ok to defend yourself. But when you force people into war or restrict the freedoms of your people (like don’t allowing men to go abroad) because you may need them as cannon fodder in the future, you are evil.
 

Relic

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Be very careful with what you wished for .....
I fully concede that a day might come that we're (the collective west) at war with Indonesia and I can't say that I'm looking forward to it. Sounds like a lot of dead people on both sides of a possible war. But in that scenario, I expect both sides to use whatever tactics neccessary to win. If you guys want to sail a massive armata to North America and commit to a land invasion of Canada and The United States, so be it. That's your prerogative and we're going to make it as hellish for you as possible. If you want to try to bomb our cities out of existence, or smuggle dirty bombs into our countries, that sounds like fare game to me.

And if we want to drop so much high yield ordinance on your coasts that it causes massive tidal waves that drown your coastal population, or attempt a Naval embargo so tight that we completely cut your country off of imports, systematically destroy your coastal fisheries, with the explicit goal of starving your population to death and choking off your fuel imports in order to grind your nation to a halt, that sounds like fare game for us as well.

I would hope you guys would do your very best to win said war and I would hope that we would do the same... Again, it's not a war I have any interest in fighting, but if if you want to bring it to us, I would expect maximum effort and minimal mercy, similar to the way we treated the Japanese in response to Pearl Harbor.
 

contricusc

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You dont realise this but Eastern regardless if its Middle Eastern to Far Eastern cultures have always been about sacrifice for the greater good.

Even if Arabs sacrifice a million of themselves they believe its for the greater good.

That’s fine as long as they are volunteers. But when men are drafted to war against their will because some crazy leader thinks they need to sacrifice for the greater good, than that’s a different thing.

Maybe because of the Eastern cultures, the pool of volunteers would be much higher, but there will surely be men who would not want to go to war for the greater good even in such countries, because there are always exceptions to the majority.

Japan sacrificed millions of soldiers in WW2.

And how did that help them?

I remember the story of a Japanese young men who was going to be sent as a kamikaze pilot, but the war ended before his mission, and this is why he remained alive. He recounted how young men were being put in a large hall and told that the army needed volunteers for kamikaze attacks. They were asked if any of them didn’t want to do it. He said that he didn’t want to die, but the shame of looking like a coward in front of all those men made him stay silent and accept his death sentence. From the outside, it would look like all those men were willing to die for the greater good, but if you hear their personal stories, they were just terrified young men who had no choice and chose death rather than humiliation. Far from being willing volunteers.

Thats the mentality that sets Eastern and Western cultures apart.

When it comes to the majority of people, it may be right, but there are always individuals who don’t subscribe to the general herd mentality, and they should have the right to live.
 

Relic

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I’m not saying a country shouldn’t defend itself from aggression. What I am questioning is conscription-based armies who defend the country against their will. If the country can get enough volunteers to fight a war and defend, they should go for it, but the moment you resort to draft/conscription you turn into a monster and are no diffrent than the attacker.

In Ukraine’s case for example, I am sure they would have found enough volunteers to defend Kyiv, but it would be more problematic to find volunteers for a protracted war in the Donbas or for retaking Crimea, because a lot of Ukrainians don’t care much about those territories (since they have always been partially Russian).

As long as your army is made only by volunteers or professionals, it’s ok to defend yourself. But when you force people into war or restrict the freedoms of your people (like don’t allowing men to go abroad) because you may need them as cannon fodder in the future, you are evil.
Without conscription there is no way that the Allies win WWII...

I'm more than ok with Hitler, Mussolini and the Japanese being defeated by armies largely made up of conscripts. Sometimes what is neccessary, isn't always "nice".
 

BaburKhan

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Such holy war is a pipe dream.
And Israel launching nukes would be death sentence to almost every jews on earth.

Also, Israel's nuclear deterrence is more vulnerable than any others. Thanks to its lack of strategic depth, If you put ABM systems in Jordan, Egypt and Lebanon amd protect it, you can almost shoot down Israeli nuclear missiles in their boost phase. Of course, they have submarine based deterrence, but it is similarly weak as Pakistani and North Korean one.
I am not saying taking even a few nuclear hit would be walk in the park, but it is an unrealistic scenario. And even if it happnens, it would be more consequential for jews than Muslims.

Which of the muslim Countries have such advanced ABM Systems? None as far I know, till now no Muslim County is capable to produce an exo-atmospheric Intercepter. Turkey will be capable, arround 2028, five Years till to serial Production !

Likely exports are possible around 2030 to Muslim Countries in the Region. Do also not forgot ABM Capable Destroyers, which also Turkey will Produce in late 2020ties and will be available for Export in the beginning of 2030ties.

Important are also Bunker Busting Stand Off Weapons hit Underground Silos.

And far more Capabillities !
 

Ravager

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I fully concede that a day might come that we're (the collective west) at war with Indonesia and I can't say that I'm looking forward to it. Sounds like a lot of dead people on both sides of a possible war. But in that scenario, I expect both sides to use whatever tactics neccessary to win. If you guys want to sail a massive armata to North America and commit to a land invasion of Canada and The United States, so be it. That's your prerogative and we're going to make it as hellish for you as possible. If you want to try to bomb our cities out of existence, or smuggle dirty bombs into our countries, that sounds like fare game to me.

And if we want to drop so much high yield ordinance on your coasts that it causes massive tidal waves that drown your coastal population, or attempt a Naval embargo so tight that we completely cut your country off of imports, systematically destroy your coastal fisheries, with the explicit goal of starving your population to death and choking off your fuel imports in order to grind your nation to a halt, that sounds like fare game for us as well.

I would hope you guys would do your very best to win said war and I would hope that we would do the same... Again, it's not a war I have any interest in fighting, but if if you want to bring it to us, I would expect maximum effort and minimal mercy, similar to the way we treated the Japanese in response to Pearl Harbor.

Why would the hell of us pinning for a northren hemisphere hegemony . We have only bone to pick with Israel . Unless someone come in between ....that's a fair game . But , we would never fire the first shot at anybody until we have fired upon .
East timor were an outlier ... Suharto was a dumb president . For a meager promised goods he is trading out our cerished longstanding pacisifism toward building and uplifting some ungratefull bastard whose located in island full nothing but rocks ..

Even we turn blind eye to the chinese at first . But , somehow it conveyed a very wrong respons .., now , the balls are in china's hand ... As chills and laid back as we were . We never run from a fight . From anybody ..... Ever !
 

Xenon54

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Which of the muslim Countries have such advanced ABM Systems? None as far I know, till now no Muslim County is capable to produce an exo-atmospheric Intercepter. Turkey will be capable, arround 2028, five Years till to serial Production !

Likely exports are possible around 2030 to Muslim Countries in the Region. Do also not forgot ABM Capable Destroyers, which also Turkey will Produce in late 2020ties and will be available for Export in the beginning of 2030ties.

Important are also Bunker Busting Stand Off Weapons hit Underground Silos.

And far more Capabillities !
What re you guys smoking the whole day? Seriously, some spectucular claims we see these days on the forum...
 

Afif

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What re you guys smoking the whole day? Seriously, some spectucular claims we see these days on the forum...

Hypothetical. Purely hypothetical if you read carefully.

Such holy war is a pipe dream.

But yes, from a strictly military perspective, Israel' tremendous lack of strategic depth hurts their land based nuclear deterrence.
 

Relic

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Closing the Straits would be bad news for Iran, even if it were done via proxy. I don't think their Chinese friends would let that happen, nor would the Saudis, Indians, Indonesians, Japanese, Australians etc, etc. The Straits being closed would be catastrophic for the economies of the emerging world. Remember that between Canada, The United States, Norway and our South American partners, we have plenty enough oil to support our economies here in the west. Yes, it would take some time to further ramp up our production to meet demand, but we can become energy independent far quicker than anyone in the South Pacific could, if the Straits were closed for any period of time. Short term pain, but in the long term we'd be fine. Canada and the United States alone cap their production significantly and intentionally to help bolster world oil prices. In a war setting, we could have refineries working at maximum production and wells uncapped really quickly. Canada easily has the capacity to add 2 million barrels of oil per day to production and we have the railroad infrastructure to get it where it needs to go if we're talking about a national emergency. The United States has similar capacity to uncap all their shale wells and off shore drilling and ramp up to full production in a multi year war environment that saw oil spike above $150 per barrel and stay there.

Something tells me that Iran would have a shit ton of international players breathing down their necks if the Straits were closed.
 
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Ecderha

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Regarding Gaza, Trump believes that Victor Orban president of Turkiye is the best politician who can solve this problem


West really do not care.
West really do not want to know.
West really do not trying to understand.
West really do not know where and what is Turkiye
Dump political people which had or have position of power to act :rolleyes:
 

Gary

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Turkish reporter was talking about how the people in Gaza have got used to the death and suffering.
Not only in Gaza but in war-torn Syria and Iraq as well. Believe it or not, their harsh condition will be at the advantage of the Arabs that will kickstart the cycle of empires back into the hands of the Arabs. A bit of history class here.

You see when I saw the Arab world of today it does remind me of pre-Islamic Arabia, both in its political system/allegiance and the social structure of its inhabitants. The Romans (the Western hegemon of the time) classified the Arabs as three distinct people. Those are (Geographically from top to bottom) Arabia Petraea, Arabia Deserta and Arabia Felix:

slide20-l.jpg


3 of those are distinct, but at least when it comes to Arabia Petrae and Arabia Felix, they have some things in common:
  • They're highly urbanized and consist mostly of urban dwellers. Architecture is peak art.
  • Quality of life is high and people are more individualistic.
  • They adopted many of the Roman lifestyle and etiquette (akin to many Westernized Arabia of today like the UAE)
  • Many are educated
  • Most of them are puppet states to more powerful entity such as the Romans, such as the lakhmids, Smaanids and Petra, the same way many advanced and rich gulf Arab countries today ranging from UAE, Qatar, Saudi Arabia are one way or another subservient to the Rome of our time (USA) or the Persia of our time (Russia/Soviet Union/China) with the likes of Syria, Iraq,
Only one of them begs to differ, Arabia Desertae, which is what mostly consists now as Saudi Arabia and its two Mecca and Medina, the people of Arabia Petraea and their characteristics:

  • Life is rough, not only because of constant combat between tribesmen but also because the area is arid.
  • because there is much constant combat, people consolidate around their clans, resulting in the emergence of close kinship.
  • People are warlike and prefer violence.
  • Many if not most are illiterate
  • They don't adopt that many lifestyles from then superior Roman culture They're not that subservient to the larger empires.

If you look at today's situation it couldn't be more different except that the people of Arabia Desertae are now at the peak of their civilizations, with rich Gulf countries at the spotlight while ironically the people of Arabia Felix and Petrae (like Palestine) are today at the bottom of civilizations and usually comes into the spotlight either because there is war, famine or mass killing (like in Gaza today).

During the time that Islam emerged in the 6th century, it is these "rough" Arabs from Arabia Desertae that carried on building the Arab Islamic superstate as they soldiered their way to conquering large landmass, in the process of conquering many lands from the "civilized and educated Arabs" they eventually employ the civilized Arabs from Arabia Petra and Felix to good use administering their newly conquered land.

If you look at the Middle East today with the emergence of groups like Hamas or ISIS, you see that constant violence, war, and hardships in their countries has transformed them into what the Arabs of the 20th century couldn't be, these groups have become notably more adept and effective on the battlefield, differing significantly from the historical perceptions of modern Arab military capabilities. ISIS and Hamas are just a glimpse of what an A-TEAM of small but highly focused and determined Arabs can do even in the face of technological disadvantage. In the case of ISIS (and expected with Hamas) they were defeated by the fact that the U.S. intervened in time and the unprecedented rallying of the world against them prevented them not only from capturing Baghdad but also led to their defeat and loss of physical territory.

Put the U.S. out of the equation and you'll see another ISIS-like military organization with even more ruthlessness and effectiveness that could readily sweep the "national army" of the Arab state but this time without any long-term intervention from Washington it could prove deadly.

This is why I'm not putting any hope of any sort of multinational Islamic alliance forming a gang and militarily conquering Jerusalem and Palestine, the OIC and the Arab league have proven to be useless and there's only military option to do this and that military option can only be done once the Arabs are forcefully united under a single all-powerful entity the same way that the Arabs are forcefully united by the early Muslims.

And because there's only a military option, it is good to know that in Arabia and MENA today, there's a rising supply of demography but less economic opportunities, which equals to = a pool of potential manpower. The war-like characteristics of conflict-ridden Middle Eastern people will help this in the long run as well because the people are readily accustomed to conflict and war. They only need a visionary leader or so or even a military organization to channel those potential.

And as for those who keep mentioning the importance of education and technology above power struggles etc, I know that today Saudi Arabia and the UAE are actively investing in their universities and technology sector.


Perhaps these scientific communities that the Saudis are cultivating now may be readily harnessed to their fullest potential upon the arrival of their new masters on their land. This practice has been done in the past and will likely be repeated in the future. When early Arabs captured Syria from the Byzantines they readily employed the existing administration to run their newly conquered land.
 

Relic

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So let's war game what we think happens in the short term if Iranian backed proxies officially join the war and open another substantial front against Israel.

Here is my perspective...

1. Rocket barrages into Israel, largely from Lebanon, are intense and lead to significant Israeli casualties. I also think that Israeli military personnel at the border will come under significant fire and will almost certainly suffer numerous casualties.

2. USA joins the conflict from the air and uses its carrier strike forces and land based fighter aircraft in southern Europe to join up with the Israeli airforce and unleash an enormous bombing campaign on Lebanon, and any other areas from which they are fired upon. Cruise missile strikes will also be significant and impactful on targets both inside Gaza and and Lebanon.

3. Iran is likely hesitant to become officially involved, but eventually does, which brings U.S. allies Britain and France (among others) into the conflict as well. I highly doubt any of these countries put boots on the ground, rather, they'll launch fighter aircraft from the Mediterranean and cruise missiles from Naval vessels, in support of Israel.

4. U.S. bases in places like Iraq and Syria will come under significant attack. I could see a number of them being destroyed and the personnel evacuated because they are hard to support.

5. I don't see Egypt, Turkey, or Saudi Arabia entering into the conflict in any significant capacity. I think it's in their respective best interests to sit on the sidelines and let things play out. I think there will be a lot of rhetoric and fiery words, but I doubt any of them jump into the war.

I have no idea where things go long term, but that seems like what might happen in the immediacy.
 

Ryder

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The Turks lost those lands when they got their asses handed to them in WWI. That's how life goes. Turks chose the wrong side of a war, got their shit pushed in and lost territory as a result of taking an L in legitimate war. Do the Lebanese want to give Lebanon back to the Christians, who they took it from via war? I highly doubt it.

This silly idea that anyone deserves anything simply because it's "theirs" historically, is comical. The story of human existence is warring tribes, exerting their will on their neighbour and conquering their lands. Turks are no different than the rest of us. The Ottomans had a great run as an empire, but it came to an end when 300,000 were killed in WWI at the hands of European and Trans-Atlantic alliance. 172,000 of my countrymen were killed and wounded fighting against the Central Powers and helping assure their defeat.

Sometimes you have to take your L like a man. Had you folks won the war, you'd still have control of the lands you claim to be "yours".

Israel was created in completely legal fashion, by the winners of war and subsequent "owners" of territory. At this point, the Jewish State has every legal right to exist. If people want them to go back to Europe they can feel free to invade Israel and force that outcome. Fare play!

We have been ruling Palestine since 1069.

From the Seljuks, Zengids, Mamluks and the Ottomans.

We do have a say in these lands.
 

Relic

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We have been ruling Palestine since 1069.

From the Seljuks, Zengids, Mamluks and the Ottomans.

We do have a say in these lands.
I said it before and I'll say it again. You got your teeth kicked in by a superior military force, who took those lands from you as a war bounty, when your ancestors chose the wrong side of a conflict. You could have (and still can) go to war with Israel and her allies to take those lands back if you want. That's your perogative. But something you did 1000 years ago is irrelevant to the L you took in WWI (100 years ago), that millions of people died for, to ensure your defeat.

Look, I've got nothing against Turkey, or Turkish people, but why can't you just own the defeat and subsequent fracture of the Ottoman Empire and the fact that you don't own those lands anymore, regardless of what you think you're historically entitled to? If you take those lands back by force or coersion, I'll be happy to recognise Turkey as the rightful owners of said territory. It's a simple principle.
 
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Ryder

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That’s fine as long as they are volunteers. But when men are drafted to war against their will because some crazy leader thinks they need to sacrifice for the greater good, than that’s a different thing.

Maybe because of the Eastern cultures, the pool of volunteers would be much higher, but there will surely be men who would not want to go to war for the greater good even in such countries, because there are always exceptions to the majority.



And how did that help them?

I remember the story of a Japanese young men who was going to be sent as a kamikaze pilot, but the war ended before his mission, and this is why he remained alive. He recounted how young men were being put in a large hall and told that the army needed volunteers for kamikaze attacks. They were asked if any of them didn’t want to do it. He said that he didn’t want to die, but the shame of looking like a coward in front of all those men made him stay silent and accept his death sentence. From the outside, it would look like all those men were willing to die for the greater good, but if you hear their personal stories, they were just terrified young men who had no choice and chose death rather than humiliation. Far from being willing volunteers.



When it comes to the majority of people, it may be right, but there are always individuals who don’t subscribe to the general herd mentality, and they should have the right to live.

People think they are cannon fodder.

Thats not true.

In warfare, soldiers have always have to be bred to have nothing to lose.

Even if the West has the technology to minimise casualties which they have achieved.

Their soldiers always have the belief to return home safe and aound and in comfort.

Goltz Pasha a German officer serving the Ottoman Empire talked about how German are being rendered weak thanks to liberalism and luxury life while the Turkish soldier despite their being behind in military technology is more willing to fight and sacrifice for the greater good.

One rocket sets off into Israel and the alarms set off which thousamds of people are fleeing and compare this to Gaza as the Palestinians who live there do their last prayers.

A Turkish reporter talked about this before.
 

Bozan

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Turks actually never accept defeat by the way.

Its in our instinct to gain revenge.

The way we accept defeat actually comes from both Pre Islamic and Post Islamic views.

Very different to what Westerners, Russians, Arabs and Jews believe.

Nomadic instinct has always been wherever we stepped on is our lands even if we lost it overtime. There is always the feeling it will return when the Turks begin conquering again.

Look up the Red Apple.

We have been ruling Palestine since 1069.

From the Seljuks, Zengids, Mamluks and the Ottomans.

We do have a say in these lands.

This kind of thinking isn't healthy, it is not reality
 

Ryder

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This kind of thinking isn't healthy, it is not reality

I say it is to be honest.

History cant be divorced from geopolitics.

Turkiye is apart of the Middle East just like how it is apart of Central Asia, Balkans and North Africa.

If Turkiye ignored its own geography it would not be keen on supporting Ukraine against Russia.

Afterall Crimea is important to the Turks.

In the Middle East if the Arabs, Israelis and the Iranians can all weaken each other.

Turkiye will be the biggest winner.

The world is not enough for two Kings.
 

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