Live Conflict Israel-Palestine War|Regional Escalations

[Gary]

I already wrote these 3-4 weeks ago.

I'm not aware then

 

[Bozan]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1741444728153895375

The houthis appear to be supporting Assad with drones.

Yup , without a boots presence on the geound . This is nothing but a theatrical gestures . Yet , any land invasion into yemen only galvanizing the resistamce movement and precursor of US diminishing influences in the MENA . Talibans and radicals ( all kinds ) alike would gladly come to the calllings . With china and russia as the main beneficary of it .



After all the dust are settled . A new generation of islamic fighters are born and thriving . Wether it was a beneficial for islamic world or not .... Honestly , I have no idea .

Survivor bias, there are less Islamic fighters now than any point in the last two decades

 

[Gary]

Survivor bias, there are less Islamic fighters now than any point in the last two decades

Factually incorrect, because you mentioned two decades, let's put the year 2004. In 2004, the arena of religiously motivated struggle and people who fought for religious motives are the Taliban in Afghanistan, Al-Qaeda networks most notably in Sudan and Pakistan representing the Sunnis, and Hezbollah representing the Shia in Lebanon.

2024, the Taliban is now back in power in Afghanistan, they have a similarly inspired TTP in Pakistan. Al-Qaeda networks have somewhat "localized" and even gave birth to new multitude of Jihadi group, ISIS used to be called Al-Qaeda in Iraq before transforming into a separate militant group that spans continents, and some of its proxies eventually become its own major (rival) jihadi group like HTS (used to be called JaN >> JFS >> HTS).

Just like most Al-Qaeda networks, many of their fighters eventually switch sides or create rival jihadi groups that are loyal to the Islamic State, such as the case of JNIM and IS-Sahel, or Boko Haram and ISWAP de facto creating an even larger agglomeration of Jihadi groups that competes and attracts more people fighting for what they believe is a religious cause.

in 2004, the Houthis were considered a minor armed group that was not on anyone's radar, hiding behind mountains. In 2024 they're playing the big dick game by closing the Mandeb Strait.

The PMF in Iraq was not really a hit as well, until very recently (2014) and those PMF are religiously motivated.

In 2004, for example, Southeast Asia only had Jemaah Islamiyah which was considered a threat, now there are two with the addition of IS-SEA and its many sub-groups in the Philippines and Indonesia.

In 2004 there is no Jihadist war in Mozambique, in 2024 you have the insurgency in Cabo Delgado, led by the local chapter of the Islamic State.

I'll leave it for people to debate which struggle is legitimate (Sunni v Shia, Salafists v Deobandis, Islamic nationalists v Islamic internationalists (Caliphate)) but the trend in the Middle East right now is more and more people are encouraged and encouraging themselves to join the struggle mainly due to religious motivation. And that religious motivation is none other than Islam. The attacks against Al-Aqsa and the situation in Gaza only serve to double or even triple the projected number of people who will join the Middle East power struggle game in the name of religion and more specifically in the name of Islam.

The fact that people in Palestine choose to celebrate the more Islamist-leaning Hamas than the secular-leaning Fatah is one metric to measure. This is also my observation in Syria where the secular origin struggle against Assad by the FSA eventually got swallowed by the Islamist-leaning groups where they attracted more men and talents and eventually jihadized the struggle.

With the French out of the Sahel, and the Americans getting squeezed inside their camps in Iraq and Syria, there's every reason to believe that the trend of religiously motivated movements will grow, both in numbers and sophistication.

 

[schuimpjes]

ISIS used to be called Al-Qaeda in Iraq before transforming into a separate militant group that spans continents, and some of its proxies eventually become its own major (rival) jihadi group like HTS (used to be called JaN >> JFS >> HTS).

Not related to Israel–Palestinian conflict, but interesting info.

Jaulani was ordered by Abu Bakr al–Baghdadi of ISI (then Islamic State of Iraq) to Syria. But Jaulani refused to fused his Jabhatul Nusra with more ISI forces coming from Iraq. They fought together against Assad forces with FSA before Islamic State fought against them by saying their cause are Asabiyyah (nationalism, tribalism etc) Jahili, and because Jaulani with FSA, he was called as Jabhat Jaulani by IS and fought against them. Just by become a friend and fight together already can be consider by ISIS as enemies with doctrine of Al Wala wal Bara’.

One of the Zevantem airport bomber, Najim Al-Asrawi, was written by ISIS in their magazine Rumiyah that his leg was shot by Jaulani forces at early time they were fought against each others (2013).

Edit: not Rumiyah magazine, but older Dabiq

Najim appeared in IS french nasheed video titled Ma Vengeance with kunya Abu Idris al–Baljiki (Abu Idris the Belgian).

 

[Bogeyman]

Hamas has achieved much more than an armed resistance with the military operation it launched here. It has been revealed that the West's approach to human rights and freedom of the press is clearly a lie. We actually knew this was the case. But now there are new generations in the West who believe this. These are young people. These people think Israel is cruel. Again, in the West, it has been seen that it is a futile effort to control the press and expect people to believe a lie. This audience I'm talking about can mostly learn what's going on without censorship on social media (mostly on X. Thanks to Elon Musk). And the sociological consequences of this will affect the future of Western countries.

Beyond this, the West no longer has the credibility to preach human rights to the global south or to the countries it looks down on.
This will have diplomatic consequences.

Finally, if we return to Gaza;

I think Israel will eventually have to accept defeat as the conflict spreads to Lebanon. Israel is completely blind to its strategic failure and shortcomings. They cannot think about their needs or priorities correctly. And no matter how good your military technology is. Human resources are not unlimited. The soldiers you send to the front will either die, be injured, become psychologically depressed and go astray, and some will even commit suicide. I guess no one thinks about the economic and sociological destruction this will cause. Because untrained soldiers going to the front will have an important place in the Israeli economy. It is obvious that Israel, which is already demographically poor, cannot afford long-term wars.

If Israel requests support from the United States (in case the conflict expands to Lebanon), it will lose control of operational decision-making processes to the United States. The USA, which has only been pressuring Israel by cutting off aid until now, will now have to take more responsibility and will have the opportunity to determine the final target of the operations on its own.

Moreover, the USA's involvement here will reduce its military capacity and budget allocated to different regions. The extra costs arising from this preoccupation will force them to limit their approach to the conflicts in Palestine in Ukraine and a possible Taiwan-Philippines crisis. In any case, a direct proxy war with Iran is the biggest trap for the USA. This could cost them huge military and financial costs. It may prevent them from using their resources more efficiently. China's unwillingness to join the coalition established by the USA in Yemen and their desire to ensure the security of their own fleet with its own navy will be a disappointment for those who expect China to put pressure on Iran in the event of a regional war.

Houthi Militia in Yemen Presents a Special Challenge for U.S.​

Houthi Militia in Yemen Presents a Special Challenge for U.S.

In the past month alone, the Iranian-backed group has launched more than 100 attacks against commercial vessels in the Red Sea.

www.nytimes.com

The USA cannot hit the Houthis because it is afraid of starting a regional war. I have always said that the Strait of Hormuz and the Persian Gulf bring a price that the United States cannot bear. The reason why the US can so easily strike Hezbollah in Syria or Iraq today is that the price it can pay consists solely of military losses. However, a full-scale invasion or partial-scale bombardment is not an option in Yemen. Because in the war that breaks out in this region, the conflict zone will directly affect the world economy. This makes it impossible to get an easy victory. If you extend the conflict over the long term, you cannot bear the economic cost.

I already wrote these 3-4 weeks ago.

Okay, it's been a week since I wrote these. I think I have something wrong with my perception of time. It feels like a month has passed.

 

[Fuzuli NL]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1741460027787948122

Bro wearing red top!
The balls on some of these guys!

 

[contricusc]

While this happens the Chinese and Russians are ready to do their own thing, with Venezuela still testing waters in Guinea.

That’s Guyana. Guinea is in Africa.

 

[Bogeyman]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1741604599906082996

The Israeli army is kidnapping babies.

 

[Ravager]

Survivor bias, there are less Islamic fighters now than any point in the last two decades

All i could tell is .... You are too detached from a reality . The fighter are wiser and more educated now ...hence the peacefull facades

Bro wearing red top!
The balls on some of these guys!

They will wrecked heavily in the open batlefield . There is no doubt about it . But , in this ruined concrete jungles ?? There is nothing scarier to the invading forces than a highly motivated and well armed fighters with terrain knowledges advantages ..
If and when ...Hamas are ( presumably !! ) Liquidated later on . The skilled fighter are persist and preserved/thrived within their base community ... Hence the Hamas 2.0 are a very credible power and player later on .
And Israel should be a very wary of them . Because i would ..

 

[Ryder]

Hamas uses lots of NK weapons.

Some say NK actually personally supplied it. NK has a score to settle as Israel actually killed some NK advisors in Syria.

 

[Ravager]

Hamas uses lots of NK weapons.

Some say NK actually personally supplied it. NK has a score to settle as Israel actually killed some NK advisors in Syria.

Good for them then . It looks like their investment are paid off handsomely ...

 

[GoatsMilk]

I speculated that what was happening in Yemen concerning the shipping was potentially the Zionists planting seeds. When you have all the power, you want war. Look at history, all nations who had power always looked for ways to project and extend that power. Isrealis won't expand their borders without war, they want war, they need war, they are pursuing war.

Gaza has been reduced rubble. The isrealis are attempting to annex that land. Now as we can see their actual land forces are kind of comedic and cowardly, the Arabs constantly losing to them and creating this nonsense about "invincibility of the isreali" army to cover up their own incompetence is on show. Desipite the Isreals bombing the absolute shit out of Gaza, the Hamas soldiers are conducting an efficient defence. Maybe, just maybe the Isrealis will eventually pull out because of casualties, but its unlikely.

Something that isn't talked about on here is how the Jews have moved into northern Cyprus, buying up the land and estimates of around 35 to 50 thousand jews have settled in the north with more coming each week. This is all taking place under the noise of ersin tatar and erdogan. Meaning that what is happenign in Palestine is coming to northern Cyprus. They buy the land by corrupt and illegal means, they settle in large numbers, eventually conflicts will break out. Then the USA, the British bases in the south and Isreal itself will look to intervene.

North Cyprus within the next 50 years will be turned into Palestine 2.0. The Islamists of Turkey and their lackeys in the TRNC are all complicit.

North Cyprus allows the Turkish military to project power into Isreal in a way that Isreal cannot project power into Turkey. Cyprus is critical to the "eretz isreal" agenda. It seems like they have been busy. North Cyprus is going to be turned into the next palestine, it will happen within 50 years. It all happened under the nose of erdogan and tatar. This is why he screamins so much anti-Isreal hate, because behind the scenes he's on board with them. Its just a show to placate the people.

 

[Asena_great]

Something that isn't talked about on here is how the Jews have moved into northern Cyprus, buying up the land and estimates of around 35 to 50 thousand jews have settled in the north with more coming each week. This is all taking place under the noise of ersin tatar and erdogan. Meaning that what is happenign in Palestine is coming to northern Cyprus. They buy the land by corrupt and illegal means, they settle in large numbers, eventually conflicts will break out. Then the USA, the British bases in the south and Isreal itself will look to intervene.

North Cyprus within the next 50 years will be turned into Palestine 2.0. The Islamists of Turkey and their lackeys in the TRNC are all complicit.

i hear about jewish immigration too which is worrying. there is also matter of foreigners buying land in the area that is effected by earthquake and settling there while Turkish population are fleeing the area due to the large amount of immigration as well as incompetence of the government to deal with aftermath of the earthquake . its seems that Islamist are undoing 80 years of Kemalist gains

look at the map you have uploaded if Israel annex Gaza they will increase their sea border as well as access to natural gas and oil in the region. we will be looking at new geopolitics if they succeed

 

[Gary]

Hamas anti tank IED could pierce steel at least 1 meter thick

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1741430540824145923

 

[Gary]

Supposedly low on rocket Hamas sends kisses to Tel aviv

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1741593578143465951

 

[Bogeyman]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1741835807466365375

 

[satria]

 

[GoatsMilk]

i hear about jewish immigration too which is worrying. there is also matter of foreigners buying land in the area that is effected by earthquake and settling there while Turkish population are fleeing the area due to the large amount of immigration as well as incompetence of the government to deal with aftermath of the earthquake . its seems that Islamist are undoing 80 years of Kemalist gains

View attachment 64365

look at the map you have uploaded if Israel annex Gaza they will increase their sea border as well as access to natural gas and oil in the region. we will be looking at new geopolitics if they succeed

"The Second Israel? Israelis Are Streaming Into Cyprus to Buy Anything in Sight"

The second Israel? Israelis are streaming into Cyprus to buy anything in sight

***

www.haaretz.com

Turkish Cypriots are in big big trouble in the coming decades. They see what happened to Palestine and their allowing exact the same shit to happen to them. While all this is taking place the psudo islamists of Turkey are silent, in fact they cover it up.

And the arrogance of zionists on show again "the second Isreal" its not enough to live somewhere, they have to claim it as Isreal. Bi trouble is on the horizen and Turks of Turkey, you lose control of northern cyprus and your entire southern coastline is vulnerable.

 

[Asena_great]

"The Second Israel? Israelis Are Streaming Into Cyprus to Buy Anything in Sight"

The second Israel? Israelis are streaming into Cyprus to buy anything in sight

***

www.haaretz.com

Turkish Cypriots are in big big trouble in the coming decades. They see what happened to Palestine and their allowing the exact the same shit to happen to them. While all this is taking place the psudo islamists of Turkey are silent, infact they cover it up.

i saw worst then this on veryansin tv i think serkan öz was interviewing someone who made the investigations the locals are begging parliament members to put an stop to this. they start at first but suddenly become silent. i suggest to watch that program. this problem is added to many problem we have we already have

 

[GoatsMilk]

i saw worst then this on veryansin tv i think serkan öz was interviewing someone who made the investigations the locals are begging parliament members to put an stop to this. they start at first but suddenly become silent. i suggest to watch that program. this problem is added to many problem we have we already have

I was waiting a long time on here to see if the political islamists would bring this dire situation up, but not one did. Its really bad, the fact they were able to buy so much land and move so many people in despite it being illegal, tells me the government, bureaucracy and media are all on board with it.

Imagine Turks, you are watching the zionists at work in palestine watching their evil, corrupt and despicable ways, meanwhile the same plot/agenda is being hatched in the TRNC. Nothing but silence from AK/FETO media outlets.

I know Turkish cypriots personally who are trying to raise this issue in the TRNC, no one wants to listen to them. Its hush hush or outright denials.

And have you noticed outside of military developments, its nothing but constant bad news. We got nothing positive to talk about. Its one crisis to another.