Live Conflict Israel-Palestine War|Regional Escalations

[mehmed beg]

Javad Zarif is not a simple change.

Javad Zarif is there as a representative of a brighter future for Iran. The whole block he represents there aimed at ending the hostilities and concentrating at Iranian people's problems that are in result of the IRGC policies. The whole reformist block is mad at the current situation.

The neutralization of the reformist block in Iran carries a great danger for the whole region including Turkiye. The recent escalations in Iraq and Syria and the prevention by IRGC for a political initiative between Turkiye and the Assad Regime are just some of the evidences for this.

If this whole situation brings something positive to the region I would support a confrontation, but what it will bring is blood, tears, hunger and another 30 years of even worst occupation and whoever wins this will establish the base for his reign over the region. And where is Turkiye in all this? In the middle between the hammer and the anvil without a mean to react to this in any meaningful way. And where are the Gazans? In Jordan or Egypt (the ones that are left alive).

What Zarif says? We should help the Palestinians, but not fight for them. The whole point of the Iranian proxy project is to keep the fight away from its borders and this whole system will crumble by inviting an international response and even further aggravating two of the most powerful countries in the Middle East under the directives of two old men keen to keep their terror regimes alive.

I am sorry, but I can not accept anything that will endanger even the limited successes of Turkiye's foreign policy regarding the Middle East and Caucasus, endanger the security of Azerbaijan, spit at my martyrs graves that gave their lives for 10 years in Iraq and Syria, only to be forced to retreat under an Iranian drone and rocket barrage, because two old men want to compare who's stick is bigger.

I don't even want to mention the nuclear potential which one of the participants for sure haves and the other is speculated to have. Taking in account that Israel will not cease to exist and if its existance is endangered then the existence of the whole region is endangered, we must develop another strategy in order to ensure the two State solution. We can start with a legit resistance putting Palestine first instead of Iranian proxies as a start. While Haniye was still alive, there was still a hope for a positive change, but with Sinwar this hope is gone.

We all are guilty for this and may God cleans our sin.

Iran is almost mirror of Israeli society.
Take a look at the majority of their opposition.
Those are completely insane people. They have the traits of Evangelical Christians or extreme Woke. Just like the opposing fractions in The West.
Interestingly, Iranians were much more religious under the Shah.
One thing I forgot to mention, even when someone sees how Iranian so called nationalist talk about Iranian ancient history, then you can see that it is full of fantasy directed towards recanchism towards Islam. Also in Shia lore is the same.
The normal fraction in so called Islamsts movement of Iran, were dealt with, even as early as 30s, with killing of Khasravi.
It carried on with killing of Sheriati
Some people at the beginning of the Revolution were normal people, they got rid of them too.
Simply , you need to go through psychology, traditions , writings , history and psychy of those people to understand then
Whether Israelis or Iranians etc , it is all just Cult.
I wrote few things about this phenomenon recently but those posts were deleted.
This matter is only going to get worse, much worse.

 

[Kartal1]

First, I will rewrite something you missed. The Palestinian issue is not just about Palestinians. Al-Aqsa Mosque is the first Qiblah of Islam. And any direct attempt to threaten its status or existence will result in war. It would not be possible for Turkey to stay away from this war in such a situation.

In order to understand the position/importance of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs in Iran, it is necessary to talk about it excluding the pacification of reformists. Because in the eyes of the Revolutionary Guard, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs is treated as an institution that has no say in the field. Even the planes allocated to the Ministry of Foreign Affairs have been made available to the Revolutionary Guard.

Again, the Revolutionary Guard has the final say in the appointment of bureaucrats in conflicts or in places that Iran has chosen as target regions. Therefore, if it were me, I would not have high hopes for the influence of the Iranian Ministry of Foreign Affairs on the field.

I fully agree with you on your comment regarding the undisputed power of IRGC in all affairs concerning Iran. What we saw with the "supposed to be" reformist government is that the people want a change. Even little when a reformist takes such an important position like the one that Zarif took, he has the power of influencing some of the affairs and exploit the hot topics in favor of the reformist supporter part of Iran because these statesmen report to the Iranian Nation and we saw that the nation is not happy trough all the protests and tension we got in the last couple of years. Zarif with his resignation showed a white flag and the reputation of the reformist block is damaged. We are yet to see how all these events will influence the internal political situation in Iran and its dynamics, because I am sure that the people will start ask questions very soon after the cabinet starts working in a normal tempo.

When it comes to the situation around the Al-Aqsa mosque I also have sensitivity towards this topic as a Muslim. I think the boundaries within which Turkiye is working on a solution are the most balanced ones. We are talking about resolutions 242, 338, 1397 and 1515, Jerusalem Corpus Separatum per resolution 181 (1947).

Why is this conflict in this specific time a problem? Because nobody is ready for the consequences of the change of the status quo. As we can see after the 7th October, Israel is determined to finish this job and is war mongering, trusting in the support they get internationally (mainly the US). I think it was more logical to make everything possible to postpone the escalation until Turkiye is economically and militarily ready for the changes. All of the developments in the region were moving in a tempo that Turkiye managed to catch up to and the intensity of the conflicts were low which means more time to react and adapt our posture. Sudden escalation will catch us unprepared, with our pants down. While we don't have the ultimate power to control events we still have and can have serious influence concerning all the developments in the region. Turkiye is in a process of healing economically and in parallel with this, Turkiye is also increasing its military and intelligence capacity, also adding more capabilities in terms of technical means and quality of work in result of updated education, training and tactical concepts.

We know that the region is in a crash course, but it would've been a good thing to be able to control the timing of all this so we have the capacity and capability to protect our current advances, fill all the power vacuums that will form, which will establish the base for a positive Turkish influence, balanced actions, deterrence and posturing which will be based on the interests of the nations of this region, creating and promoting stability, trade and prosperity. I know Turkiye has the potential to play this leadership role, but first we must build deterrence. I am afraid that we will not only be unable to protect our current advancement, but we may also lose more while Iran or the US (whoever goes on top) becomes a dominant power which is not good in both of the cases as we currently see.

I am very sorry for all these kids and innocent people that wait for us while we can't be there for them as much and as strong as I've wanted to, not only in Palestine, but all around in our backyards. I not only feel guilt as a Turk and a Muslim for that we allowed this to happen (all of it), but also feel shame as a human being that the whole humanity just stays and watches. Are we dumb, disabled or dysfunctional? I don't think so. I think the reason lies in accepting mediocrity as long as our community is concerned and the fact that human massacres are normalized in a global sense. We need more holism.

 

[Afif]

I fully agree with you on your comment regarding the undisputed power of IRGC in all affairs concerning Iran. What we saw with the "supposed to be" reformist government is that the people want a change. Even little when a reformist takes such an important position like the one that Zarif took, he has the power of influencing some of the affairs and exploit the hot topics in favor of the reformist supporter part of Iran because these statesmen report to the Iranian Nation and we saw that the nation is not happy trough all the protests and tension we got in the last couple of years. Zarif with his resignation showed a white flag and the reputation of the reformist block is damaged. We are yet to see how all these events will influence the internal political situation in Iran and its dynamics, because I am sure that the people will start ask questions very soon after the cabinet starts working in a normal tempo.

When it comes to the situation around the Al-Aqsa mosque I also have sensitivity towards this topic as a Muslim. I think the boundaries within which Turkiye is working on a solution are the most balanced ones. We are talking about resolutions 242, 338, 1397 and 1515, Jerusalem Corpus Separatum per resolution 181 (1947).

Why is this conflict in this specific time a problem? Because nobody is ready for the consequences of the change of the status quo. As we can see after the 7th October, Israel is determined to finish this job and is war mongering, trusting in the support they get internationally (mainly the US). I think it was more logical to make everything possible to postpone the escalation until Turkiye is economically and militarily ready for the changes. All of the developments in the region were moving in a tempo that Turkiye managed to catch up to and the intensity of the conflicts were low which means more time to react and adapt our posture. Sudden escalation will catch us unprepared, with our pants down. While we don't have the ultimate power to control events we still have and can have serious influence concerning all the developments in the region. Turkiye is in a process of healing economically and in parallel with this, Turkiye is also increasing its military and intelligence capacity, also adding more capabilities in terms of technical means and quality of work in result of updated education, training and tactical concepts.

We know that the region is in a crash course, but it would've been a good thing to be able to control the timing of all this so we have the capacity and capability to protect our current advances, fill all the power vacuums that will form, which will establish the base for a positive Turkish influence, balanced actions, deterrence and posturing which will be based on the interests of the nations of this region, creating and promoting stability, trade and prosperity. I know Turkiye has the potential to play this leadership role, but first we must build deterrence. I am afraid that we will not only be unable to protect our current advancement, but we may also lose more while Iran or the US (whoever goes on top) becomes a dominant power which is not good in both of the cases as we currently see.

I am very sorry for all these kids and innocent people that wait for us while we can't be there for them as much and as strong as I've wanted to, not only in Palestine, but all around in our backyards. I not only feel guilt as a Turk and a Muslim for that we allowed this to happen (all of it), but also feel shame as a human being that the whole humanity just stays and watches. Are we dumb, disabled or dysfunctional? I don't think so. I think the reason lies in accepting mediocrity as long as our community is concerned and the fact that human massacres are normalized in a global sense. We need more holism.

Very well said. Besides, Türkiye can only do so much. So far, despite some incoherence in foreign policy of Erdogan's administration, Türkiye did most of it could for Palestine.

As human, Muslim and neighbor if the matter of Al Aqsa and the change of statue quo concern everyone, then it should be a collective responsibility. You can only help fight the fire in neighbor's home as long as your own is safe. It is not realistic for Türkiye to fight the enemy and the people who are supposed to be 'brothers' at the same time. Unless, Arab countries and Iran stop being what they are now, this region will continue to be like this. Türkiye as a potential regional leader can only mitigate the problem and influence the actors to a certain extent, not fundamentally solve it for the others. They have to do it for themselves first.

 

[Fuzuli NL]

Iranian media depicts an hourglass with 02:00 showing!
I bet you that Israelis are waiting for the detailed screenplay to be sent to them before that.