European gas prices jump 30% on Hormuz disruption as Goldman sees upside risks
Goldman Sachs said a month-long halt to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz could cause European gas prices to more than double. TTF natural gas prices could approach 74 EUR/MWh ($25/mmBtu), 130% above Friday’s levels, if LNG flows through the Strait are fully halted for one month, Goldman Sachs commodity analysts said.
That threshold triggered large natural gas demand responses during the 2022 European energy crisis.
A disruption lasting more than two months would likely lift European natural gas prices above 100 EUR/MWh ($35/mmBtu), the brokerage said.
The Strait of Hormuz carries approximately 80 million tonnes per annum of LNG, 19% of global supply, mainly from Qatar.
Tanker traffic through the waterway appears significantly disrupted after Israel and the United States launched military operations against Iran’s leadership, with Iran responding by firing ballistic missiles and drones at U.S. assets and allies across the region, targeting Israel, Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, Oman, the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia and Jordan.
Qatar halts LNG production, Saudi refinery, Iraqi Kurdish and Israeli oil, gas fields shut amid Mideast strikes
March 2 (Reuters) - Qatar halted production of liquefied natural gas on Monday and Saudi Arabia shut its biggest domestic oil refinery after a drone strike, a source said, as Israeli and U.S. strikes and Iranian retaliation triggered precautionary shutdowns of oil and gas facilities across the Middle East.
A wave of attacks on the region stretched into a third day, resulting in the suspension of most oil production in Iraqi Kurdistan and several major Israeli gas fields, throttling exports to Egypt.
Oil prices surged 13% to above $82 a barrel, the highest since January 2025, as the conflict ground shipping to a near halt in the Strait of Hormuz, through which a fifth of global oil supply flows.
State oil giant Saudi Aramco's 550,000 barrels per day (bpd) Ras Tanura refinery, which was shut as a precautionary measure, is part of an energy complex on the kingdom's Gulf coast which also serves as a critical export terminal for Saudi crude oil.
In Iraqi Kurdistan, which exported 200,000 barrels of oil per day (bpd) via pipeline to Turkey's Ceyhan port in February, companies including DNO, Gulf Keystone Petroleum , Dana Gas and HKN Energy have stopped output at their fields as a precaution, with no damage reported.
Offshore Israel, the Israeli government instructed Chevron to temporarily shut down the giant Leviathan gas field where it is in the process of expanding capacity to around 21 billion cubic metres a year as part of a $35 billion export deal to Egypt. A spokesperson for Chevron, which also operates the Tamar gas field offshore Israel, said its facilities were safe.
Energean shut down its production vessel serving smaller gas fields.
In Iran, explosions were heard on Saturday in Kharg Island, which processes 90% of Iran's crude exports. It was unclear how the facilities were impacted.
Iran, the third largest producer in the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, pumps about 4.5% of global oil supplies. Iran's output is about 3.3 million barrels per day of crude, plus 1.3 million bpd of condensate and other liquids.
Qatar's government said an energy facility belonging to gas giant Qatar Energy was attacked by two Iranian drones on Monday, with authorities still assessing the damage.
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