Again, this makes no sense to me.
If you want the Americans to leave you alone, how do you not attack Israel?
Do we think perhaps this is some agreement by all sides to avoid further escalation they keep Israel out of it and just let Arabs be hit?
Lets be real. Nobody really cares for the Oil Rich Arabs being hit do they?
Simply, because Iran itself wants to get the hell out of this war. The main issue of contention here is what each side will get after they get out of this war
Let me explain, firstly, If Iran fires at Israel, then Israel will increase pressure, through its proxies, on Trump to continue or even escalate the degree of war against Iran. Trump is weak against Israeli lobby and will bend the knee and obey if forced to fight. The only thing aiding Trump rn is the fact that the war is so unpopular among all segments of American society, except ultra-evangelical segments
Iran on the other hand feels conflicted. On one hand it needs some sort of compensation and a way out of this losing war and on the other hand they feel betrayed by the US since they didnt fulfill the first demand from the recent ceasefire agreement which is complete Israeli retreat from Lebanon
In other words, what Iran wants is a way out of this war while preserving its forces/influence across the region while the Americans want to get the hell out of this war while crushing Iranian influence over the region.
Iran wants to retain its influence by preserving Hezbollah and forcing a toll on the strait of Hormuz while having guarantees that oil will only be sold through the strait of Hormuz (which is an important crude oil transit and trade route) as compensation for what the Turks did by kicking the Iranians out of Syria. Trump is now trying to circumvent the strait of Hormuz and reducing its importance to zero by using both Turkey and Syria as oil logistic routes to the West which is again infuriating Iran. Israel, on the other hand, is supporting Iran in this endeavour as it doesnt want Syria and Turkey to gain more influence while ensuring that the West remains busy with Iran as it will give Israel the leeway to completely annex the regions it just conquered in Lebanon and Syria while killing what remains of the palestinians without any consequences
So there you have it. Iran doesnt wanna escalate but wanna get out of this war as a winner and the same for US. Iran already lost a lot so if they end this war without gaining anything substantial, they will start falling towards the path of doom
Turkey, on the other side of the spectrum, wont help Iran and but also wont help the US. From my understanding, Turkey believes that as long as the US and the West are busy with Iran and the possibility of them building nukes, it gives more time to Turkey to beef its technology and army since Turkey is next on the list of nations to be eliminated for Israeli security and hegemony; furthermore, it reduces the trust the gulf has for the West as a security guarantor and this provides Turkey with more space to wiggle into a potential weapons market while increasing its geopolitical importance as a security guarantor to the gulf. Finally, this war further promotes the new logistic/trade route put forward by Turkey from Turkey-Syria-Jordan-Saudi Arabia-Yemen as a more stable alternative to strait of Hormuz which will also give an edge to Turkish producers and also put in mind that Turkey's energy and trade needs arent dependent on the strait of Hormuz in the first place, unlike other nations. Consequently, Turkey wont suffer a lot if this war continues
And there you have it
