Live Conflict Military Operations Syria

TheInsider

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Any action before 72 hours, I will apologize (gladly) and state I have underestimated your vision and connections on the inside!
There is already ongoing action. Troop deployments artillery shelling and recon flights are happening right now.

The communications tower is destroyed in Abu Rasin.
Turkish artillery struck the PKK headquarters in Abu Rasin.
Turkish artillery destroyed the comm towers in the Senare village of Tal Rifat.
TSK is targeting comms.
Turkish artillery struck YPG positions at Sorhane and Kenitra south of Afrin.
Turkish artillery destroyed the comms tower in Manbij.
Turkish artillery strikes targets in Zor Maghar/Ain Al Arab

Comms are cut in Tall Tamr.
Artillery strikes continue in the areas from Tal Rifat to Ras Al Ain.
 
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the

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Strategically speaking, capturing Kobane/Ayn al-Arab would be beneficial to stop cross-border incursions, but from a political point of view it would be quite a dangerous decision.

Its an majority Kurdish city so:
1. Significant civilian opposition can be expected - this will make it hard to assert control.
2. Any use of arms to 'suppress' opposition will likely be amplified by Kurdish authorities. This will not only provide them with supposed evidence of "ethnic cleansing" but one can expect even greater political pressure on Turkey, damaging Turkey's reputation.

There is also a high risk of further sanctions, especially if some rogue SNA soldier acidentally or purposely injures/kills a civilian. (Though I suspect Turkish officials will use Sweden and Finland's entry into NATO as leverage over potentially more sanctions.)
 
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Yasar_TR

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Extremely detailed. You should read this from start to finish.
What some Turkish academics and lawyers believe in does not change the reality accepted by the rest of the world including UN.
As far as they are concerned the Syrians in Turkey are “refugees”. Hence will have to be treated accordingly.
No matter how much these academics and lawyers try to prove that their ground is concrete and their point is relevant, unless it is supported and accepted by UN, it stays as an argument of the person himself.
 

Ryder

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Strategically speaking, capturing Kobane/Ayn al-Arab would be beneficial to stop cross-border incursions, but from a political point of view it would be quite a dangerous decision.

Its an majority Kurdish city so:
1. Significant civilian opposition can be expected - this will make it hard to assert control.
2. Any use of arms to 'suppress' opposition will likely be amplified by Kurdish authorities. This will not only provide them with supposed evidence of "ethnic cleansing" but one can expect even greater political pressure on Turkey, damaging Turkey's reputation.

There is also a high risk of further sanctions, especially if some rogue SNA soldier acidentally or purposely injures/kills a civilian. (Though I suspect Turkish officials will use Sweden and Finland's entry into NATO as leverage over potentially more sanctions.)

These are Arab and Syrian Turkmen lands.

How did the Kurds become a majority all thanks to the Ottoman Empire who turned a blind eye to Kurdish expansion until it bit them hard in the end.
 

TheInsider

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What some Turkish academics and lawyers believe in does not change the reality accepted by the rest of the world including UN.
As far as they are concerned the Syrians in Turkey are “refugees”. Hence will have to be treated accordingly.
No matter how much these academics and lawyers try to prove that their ground is concrete and their point is relevant, unless it is supported and accepted by UN, it stays as an argument of the person himself.

 

TheInsider

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PKK/YPG Ilhan Amed "we held talks with Russia and the US no one gave us security guarantees".

Nuri Mahmud from YPG "this time it won't be like Ras Al Ain and Tal Abyad. We will make very different things".
 

Ryder

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PKK/YPG Ilhan Amed "we held talks with Russia and the US no one gave us security guarantees".

Nuri Mahmud from YPG "this time it won't be like Ras Al Ain and Tal Abyad. We will make very different things".

They will flee like rats as usual.
 

Mis_TR_Like

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DW Türkce: The planned relocation of 1 million Syrians to N.Syria will change demographics.
Sending Syrians back to their country = bad
Keeping Syrians in Türkiye = good

German funded media is supporting demographic change of Türkiye.


"Isn't it like a joke? Germany, which gives money by saying "Let the Syrians stay in Turkey", says that if 1 million Syrians return to Syria, the demographics in Syria will change. Nothing better explains why they have to go." translated by google

Someone took notice of it.



It's clear that the anti-Turkey lobby wants Syrians, Afghans and others to stay in Turkey. They've made this clear for years. Especially when any mention of a safe zone is made. We must not cave into their demands. A new operation is a must. We can deal YPG a crushing blow whilst simultaneously lessening the refugee burden.
 
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Ryder

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"Isn't it like a joke? Germany, which gives money by saying "Let the Syrians stay in Turkey", says that if 1 million Syrians return to Syria, the demographics in Syria will change. Nothing better explains why they have to go." translated by google

Someone took notice of it.



It's clear that the anti-Turkey lobby wants Syrians, Afghans and others to stay in Turkey. They've made this clear for years. Especially when any mention of a safe zone is made. We must not cave into their demands. A new operation is a must. We can deal YPG a crushing blow whilst simultaneously lessening the refugee burden.

Turkiye is thr only country willing to solve a refugee crisis while the Americans, Europeans, Israelis and the Gulf arabs only make it worse. Lets not forget Iran and Russia.
 

Lool

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Turkiye is thr only country willing to solve a refugee crisis while the Americans, Europeans, Israelis and the Gulf arabs only make it worse. Lets not forget Iran and Russia.
The problem is that many ppl doesnt understand the shit that is going on
The refugees are meant to stay in Turkey by the West for two things
1- Increase hatred towards the AKP; in order to topple Erdogan
2- Create a demographic change in such a way that after 20 years, turks living in Turkey will be a minority and then the West can create havoc and split Turkey into many smaller states; thus, makin Turkey easier to control

Soemthing like this but with varying races👇
images.jpeg.jpg
images.jpeg.jpg


The problem here is that such an issue could be solved by kicking the refugees out at first, by force, even if Bashar kills the refugees the moment they turn back to Syria; yet, Erdogan kept saying how can we allow our Syrian brothers to be killed needlessly by Assad (I respect him for that but even this has its limits FFS!). They also mentioned on how the West will use the killed refugees and portray Turkey as a cruel barbarian state in their media

However, just yesterday, I had a reunion with some respectable figures studying in political science in my university and they stated that IF Turkey actually kicked the refugees out by force and Assad butchered them all, then Syria will change from a Sunni-majority state to a Shia-majority state controlled by Iran, Russia, and US! This will give radical PKK kurds even more importance and will ensure that the PKK will never ever be defeated as most Shias hate Sunnis and all of the Iranian, US, and Russian forces will support them even more asthey will be extremely potent. They stated that in such a scenario, Turkey will have to change the whole demographics of Syria in order to solve the PKK by then which is fqing impossible as Turkey doesnt have the means or the power. On the other hand, they stated that if the safe zone is created and Erdo actually moved the Sunni refugees to Kurdish-majority areas, then Erdogan may literally not only cut the PKK contact with Turkey forever but also sopve the domestic refugees issue and they stated that the Ukraine-Russia war is a blessing for Erdogan as it might save his ass from a lot of issues. They also supported @GoatsMilk statements om how the PKK is impossible to break down since it is more of a religion at this point yet while it cant be rooted out, it can certainly be weakened to the point of being nearly harmless by creating a buffer zone between Turkey and the PKK filled with a non-Shia, non-Kurdish demographic

After the safe zone is formed, the next priority for Erdogan, according to my colleagues, is to ensure that the Syrian civil war continues so that the resettled Syrian refugees dont go back into deep Syria and change back the demographic to kurdish majority within the Turkish border region and even better if Erdogan supported this safe zone to declare their independence and form a small state with their own army so that the refugees can settle there, breed and the new generation will be Sunni, non-Kurdish, non-Shia majority for generations to come

Whether Erdo and the govt can do that is a question to be left for the future however they did state that the reason why the West is worried by the operation isnt due to the operation itself (since the PKK can just regrow its limbs from the ignorant masses) but because what I stated above is a possibikity that may be achieved and if it did, then the most potent card against Turkey thatl the West have been nurturing for nearly 3-4 decades will be gone. This is why the West is freaking out but they are having their hands full from China and Russia
 

Anastasius

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PKK/YPG Ilhan Amed "we held talks with Russia and the US no one gave us security guarantees".

Nuri Mahmud from YPG "this time it won't be like Ras Al Ain and Tal Abyad. We will make very different things".
Those names...I think I know which area they are from and I don't like it. It means these fuckers are trying to infiltrate Azerbaijan too. We've already had Iranian shills trying to run "positive propaganda" on multiple Azerbaijani social media channels.
 

B.t.N

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The problem is that many ppl doesnt understand the shit that is going on
The refugees are meant to stay in Turkey by the West for two things
1- Increase hatred towards the AKP; in order to topple Erdogan
2- Create a demographic change in such a way that after 20 years, turks living in Turkey will be a minority and then the West can create havoc and split Turkey into many smaller states; thus, makin Turkey easier to control

Soemthing like this but with varying races👇
View attachment 44297 View attachment 44297

The problem here is that such an issue could be solved by kicking the refugees out at first, by force, even if Bashar kills the refugees the moment they turn back to Syria; yet, Erdogan kept saying how can we allow our Syrian brothers to be killed needlessly by Assad (I respect him for that but even this has its limits FFS!). They also mentioned on how the West will use the killed refugees and portray Turkey as a cruel barbarian state in their media

However, just yesterday, I had a reunion with some respectable figures studying in political science in my university and they stated that IF Turkey actually kicked the refugees out by force and Assad butchered them all, then Syria will change from a Sunni-majority state to a Shia-majority state controlled by Iran, Russia, and US! This will give radical PKK kurds even more importance and will ensure that the PKK will never ever be defeated as most Shias hate Sunnis and all of the Iranian, US, and Russian forces will support them even more asthey will be extremely potent. They stated that in such a scenario, Turkey will have to change the whole demographics of Syria in order to solve the PKK by then which is fqing impossible as Turkey doesnt have the means or the power. On the other hand, they stated that if the safe zone is created and Erdo actually moved the Sunni refugees to Kurdish-majority areas, then Erdogan may literally not only cut the PKK contact with Turkey forever but also sopve the domestic refugees issue and they stated that the Ukraine-Russia war is a blessing for Erdogan as it might save his ass from a lot of issues. They also supported @GoatsMilk statements om how the PKK is impossible to break down since it is more of a religion at this point yet while it cant be rooted out, it can certainly be weakened to the point of being nearly harmless by creating a buffer zone between Turkey and the PKK filled with a non-Shia, non-Kurdish demographic

After the safe zone is formed, the next priority for Erdogan, according to my colleagues, is to ensure that the Syrian civil war continues so that the resettled Syrian refugees dont go back into deep Syria and change back the demographic to kurdish majority within the Turkish border region and even better if Erdogan supported this safe zone to declare their independence and form a small state with their own army so that the refugees can settle there, breed and the new generation will be Sunni, non-Kurdish, non-Shia majority for generations to come

Whether Erdo and the govt can do that is a question to be left for the future however they did state that the reason why the West is worried by the operation isnt due to the operation itself (since the PKK can just regrow its limbs from the ignorant masses) but because what I stated above is a possibikity that may be achieved and if it did, then the most potent card against Turkey thatl the West have been nurturing for nearly 3-4 decades will be gone. This is why the West is freaking out but they are having their hands full from China and Russia
Turkey will not be able to survive severe financial losses being in a constant state of clash for the next decade or two, military sucking all available resources, This, along with other challenges we have got, will result in further unrest and vulnerabilities within our borders (I say the US could not have projected a better game plan).

Military operations go so far, and never a final word, unless there are long term political results, or achievements. Sooner or later, we will have to assess the failures in our policies, but then it will be too late to react. What is so daunting is that we constantly fail in our assessments, and projections to secure our interests.

And when all conventional policies are down the drain, you’d better start thinking off the box. I will not be going into details, but ask a question for review; Which do you think is a viable solution for us, a PKK/YPG state on our borders, driven by US policies against Turkey, or a state we mandate from the very beginning. I believe we have a great deal of mutual(!) interests with the US, and then some, if we can work it out!
 

Mehmed Ali

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If I recall correctly, Erbakan 2008 said " Next war will be in Syria and in reality it is war against Turkey " , after few months of that war I realised that it was absolutely true. I learned my lessons from my country conflict. I don't want sound strange but it seems to me that evil which is rising is unprecedented, these people are completely out of their minds.
 

Vergennes

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To be honest I am asking a question,is it really wise to announce such an operation publicly thus giving the enemy time to prepare instead of attacking them by surprise ?
 

Yasar_TR

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To be honest I am asking a question,is it really wise to announce such an operation publicly thus giving the enemy time to prepare instead of attacking them by surprise ?
How else are you going to do the necessary propaganda? How else can you change the daily agenda that is working against you in the media?
Edit:
Besides those people that are not supposed to know, can see all your movements via their big brothers’ satellites.
 
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Avanti

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They also knew Afrin operation was going to happen and claimed it will be "Turkey's Vietnam". They couldn't do anything
 

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To be honest I am asking a question,is it really wise to announce such an operation publicly thus giving the enemy time to prepare instead of attacking them by surprise ?

Announcing an operation also forces the enemy to initiate final preparations intensively. This includes movement of ammunition and fighters and intense leadership communication. As we know, Turkey is world class in surveillance and the enemy's movements will reveal enemy locations which may have been unknowns to TSK before.
 

Lool

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It seems that the US decided to prevent Erdogan from fulfillinb what I stated in the previous post no matter what
Whether Erdogan will knuckle under and stop the operation or will he continue is still to be seen but I dont see how Erdogan can win against the US; even China cant effectively win against them

 
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Saithan

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It seems that the US decided to prevent Erdogan from fulfillinb what I stated in the previous post no matter what
Whether Erdogan will knuckle under and stop the operation or will he continue is still to be seen but I dont see how Erdogan can win against the US; even China cant effectively win against them

Doesn’t matter they can stay in those bases and twiddle their thumb while we conduct operations then.
 

Heartbang

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It seems that the US decided to prevent Erdogan from fulfillinb what I stated in the previous post no matter what
Whether Erdogan will knuckle under and stop the operation or will he continue is still to be seen but I dont see how Erdogan can win against the US; even China cant effectively win against them

this is on us, we shouldnt declare our intentions so openly 🤦‍♂️
 
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