Live Conflict Military Operations Syria

[Kartal1]

Why this strategy tho ? Because the more we wait, the more the enemy is replenishing and coming back stronger, I suppose ?

I think this is due to the fact that there are too many uncertainties like the HTS for example. The biggest problem right now is Idlib. If we manage to sort out the Idlib problem as we tried with our coup trough Abu Mariya Al-Qahtani (ex-second in command of HTS- died) we would have dissolved the HTS, isolated the radical elements and destroy them under an unified Opposition government and the Syrian National Army.

HTS is serving as a pretext for invasion, just as HRE, YPG and all other PKK wings are serving as pretext for invasion by our forces. The problem is that Russia, Iran and the Regime can play with the existence of HRE and can shape it according to their goals while we have limited influence over HTS, plus the fact that we recognized them as terrorist organization and Idlib is basically an open prison for them so we can't just remove them, but have to fight them and this is a very, very hard task. They are the best prepared group in Syria from all camps, have all highly trained, good equipped and motivated force in high number. They are also not shy of conducting terrorist operations with the means of suicide bombers etc. The consequences in Syria will be hard and we will see a rise of terrorist attacks in Turkiye too.

The de-escalation policy is a mean for winning time until we figure out something (like we tried with Qahtani) or there is other dynamic which we can exploit and resolve this issue in the most forgiving way possible. Currently there are daily protests for more than 6 months that are supported by the moderate Opposition for the overthrow of Julani in different areas in Idlib. This is a good opportunity so we can figure out something. Currently Julani is doing well in controlling these, but nothing is guaranteed as in result of these protests and other activities in the past a lot of people got thrown in prison and this angers very important people including tribal leaders, military commanders, religious figures and thanks God there is also a strong media working against Julani. If properly exploited, with a bit of money and some good relations with important figures in Idlib we can turn these protests in our advantage.

The Idlib case should be resolved as peaceful as possible due to the population living there. If large scale fighting erupts the remaining people in Idlib will search for an escape route to Turkish controlled areas and eventually Turkiye. A probable escalation at Tal Rifat or another point can lead to a reciprocal response by Russia, Iran and Assad in Idlib which is a risky thing for us as nobody can predict how it will end. This is why we should be very strong on the negotiations table.

Currently by the looks we are dealing economic benefits for the Assad trough the normalizing of economic relations between our areas and the Regime by opening border gates and checkpoints for commercial trade for further security guarantees by Russia, but all this is a temporary solution benefiting the Regime the most. There are rumors that Tal Rifat and Manbij are on the table of these negotiations and Russia may eventually give them to us without fighting, but so far I didn't see any serious move pointing at something like that.

 

[Kartal1]

It is rumored that they will be deployed in the areas between Hasakah and Tal Tamr. TSK conducted many UCAV operations in this area.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1815021686422438145

 

[Saithan]

I think this is due to the fact that there are too many uncertainties like the HTS for example. The biggest problem right now is Idlib. If we manage to sort out the Idlib problem as we tried with our coup trough Abu Mariya Al-Qahtani (ex-second in command of HTS- died) we would have dissolved the HTS, isolated the radical elements and destroy them under an unified Opposition government and the Syrian National Army.

HTS is serving as a pretext for invasion, just as HRE, YPG and all other PKK wings are serving as pretext for invasion by our forces. The problem is that Russia, Iran and the Regime can play with the existence of HRE and can shape it according to their goals while we have limited influence over HTS, plus the fact that we recognized them as terrorist organization and Idlib is basically an open prison for them so we can't just remove them, but have to fight them and this is a very, very hard task. They are the best prepared group in Syria from all camps, have all highly trained, good equipped and motivated force in high number. They are also not shy of conducting terrorist operations with the means of suicide bombers etc. The consequences in Syria will be hard and we will see a rise of terrorist attacks in Turkiye too.

The de-escalation policy is a mean for winning time until we figure out something (like we tried with Qahtani) or there is other dynamic which we can exploit and resolve this issue in the most forgiving way possible. Currently there are daily protests for more than 6 months that are supported by the moderate Opposition for the overthrow of Julani in different areas in Idlib. This is a good opportunity so we can figure out something. Currently Julani is doing well in controlling these, but nothing is guaranteed as in result of these protests and other activities in the past a lot of people got thrown in prison and this angers very important people including tribal leaders, military commanders, religious figures and thanks God there is also a strong media working against Julani. If properly exploited, with a bit of money and some good relations with important figures in Idlib we can turn these protests in our advantage.

The Idlib case should be resolved as peaceful as possible due to the population living there. If large scale fighting erupts the remaining people in Idlib will search for an escape route to Turkish controlled areas and eventually Turkiye. A probable escalation at Tal Rifat or another point can lead to a reciprocal response by Russia, Iran and Assad in Idlib which is a risky thing for us as nobody can predict how it will end. This is why we should be very strong on the negotiations table.

Currently by the looks we are dealing economic benefits for the Assad trough the normalizing of economic relations between our areas and the Regime by opening border gates and checkpoints for commercial trade for further security guarantees by Russia, but all this is a temporary solution benefiting the Regime the most. There are rumors that Tal Rifat and Manbij are on the table of these negotiations and Russia may eventually give them to us without fighting, but so far I didn't see any serious move pointing at something like that.

So we should strengthen our borders towards idlib and open alternate supply routes and close off idlib bordergates. Forcing ppl and HTS to use other routes. And kill them off outside of idlib.

I don’t think it will get any easier as time goes by unless we snuff out their lives

 

[Kartal1]

So we should strengthen our borders towards idlib and open alternate supply routes and close off idlib bordergates. Forcing ppl and HTS to use other routes. And kill them off outside of idlib.

I don’t think it will get any easier as time goes by unless we snuff out their lives

There is a very thin balance that should be kept there. For now HTS must be deterrent enough in order to prevent a Regime offensive and weak enough so we can exploit internally the politics in Idlib and force a revolution that would isolate the radicals from within HTS, TIP and the other Hawarij, force the moderate groups to join the SNA and enforce the Syrian Interim Government rule that is supported by us instead of the radical Salvation Government that is currently ruling Idlib.

Of course I don't think this will go bloodless as these radical groups should be defeated first in order for this to work out. The good think is that with the help of SNA and a probable rebel force from within the HTS we can make it work as we also have more than 100 military bases in Idlib so we will be obliged to use full force on this in order to secure our bases and from there assist the rebel force that will overthrow Julani.

There are still many figures that are not killed by Julani, the protests of the local people are still going on with full force, so there is still hope, but all of this is taking time due to the fact that all the preparations and networking must begin from point 0 and of course this should be done in a clandestine way with the help of trusted people. Tribal chiefs, military commanders, religious figures and media lords are what we need and we have them all. The problem is that we have only one shot at this and we should make it right, make everything possible so it doesn't end like the adventure with Abu Mariya Al-Qahtani. Of course all this sounds easier than it is done. I can assure you that MIT is working 24/7 on this issue.

Anyways, here we got some news...

For the last two night there were some intense clashes. HRE/PKK tried multiple infiltration attempts which were suppressed by SNA and HRE/PKK were inflicted serious casualties.

HRE/PKK tried an infiltration at Al-Bab's, Hazwan which was suppressed. 5 terrorists were killed and 9 were wounded. Other than this HRE/PKK did infiltration attempts at Alajemi, Ghuz, Harbel, Daglibas and Able villages. All of the infiltrations were intercepted and prevented.

TSK responded by pounding Regime points killing and wounding many Regime militiamen. SNA also conducted kamikaze drone attacks on the Manbij line.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1815166364975280298

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1815522199203205160

 

[Saithan]

There is a very thin balance that should be kept there. For now HTS must be deterrent enough in order to prevent a Regime offensive and weak enough so we can exploit internally the politics in Idlib and force a revolution that would isolate the radicals from within HTS, TIP and the other Hawarij, force the moderate groups to join the SNA and enforce the Syrian Interim Government rule that is supported by us instead of the radical Salvation Government that is currently ruling Idlib.

Of course I don't think this will go bloodless as these radical groups should be defeated first in order for this to work out. The good think is that with the help of SNA and a probable rebel force from within the HTS we can make it work as we also have more than 100 military bases in Idlib so we will be obliged to use full force on this in order to secure our bases and from there assist the rebel force that will overthrow Julani.

There are still many figures that are not killed by Julani, the protests of the local people are still going on with full force, so there is still hope, but all of this is taking time due to the fact that all the preparations and networking must begin from point 0 and of course this should be done in a clandestine way with the help of trusted people. Tribal chiefs, military commanders, religious figures and media lords are what we need and we have them all. The problem is that we have only one shot at this and we should make it right, make everything possible so it doesn't end like the adventure with Abu Mariya Al-Qahtani. Of course all this sounds easier than it is done. I can assure you that MIT is working 24/7 on this issue.

Anyways, here we got some news...

For the last two night there were some intense clashes. HRE/PKK tried multiple infiltration attempts which were suppressed by SNA and HRE/PKK were inflicted serious casualties.

HRE/PKK tried an infiltration at Al-Bab's, Hazwan which was suppressed. 5 terrorists were killed and 9 were wounded. Other than this HRE/PKK did infiltration attempts at Alajemi, Ghuz, Harbel, Daglibas and Able villages. All of the infiltrations were intercepted and prevented.

TSK responded by pounding Regime points killing and wounding many Regime militiamen. SNA also conducted kamikaze drone attacks on the Manbij line.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1815166364975280298

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1815522199203205160

If we don't put the heat on them they won't splinter, and if we don't snuff out the bad elements actively they'll jus be emboldened to strengthen their positions. Because they know what you just said.

Isn't it self contradictory that what we're doing to PKK isn't being done to HTS. killing of the brains etc. I truly believe this is a very bad call. Arms without a brain is easier to control than wait for some part of the brain to die....

 

[Kartal1]

If we don't put the heat on them they won't splinter, and if we don't snuff out the bad elements actively they'll jus be emboldened to strengthen their positions. Because they know what you just said.

Isn't it self contradictory that what we're doing to PKK isn't being done to HTS. killing of the brains etc. I truly believe this is a very bad call. Arms without a brain is easier to control than wait for some part of the brain to die....

If we do this right now a Regime offensive will follow and we will have to enter a war with the Syrian Regime, fighting shoulder to shoulder with a terrorist organization, similarly to the situation during Operation Peace Spring where we were forced to fight next to HTS in order to prevent a Regime takeover. We were forced to support the creation of the "Al-Fath Al-Mubin" operations room which was consisting of NLF (National Liberation Front-Turkish supported at the time) and HTS. This made us open for exploitation. For example after Operation Peace Spring, in 2020 we had to reinforce the NLF and sent money and weapons. The NLF leadership gave us the names of 14.000 fighters for which we should've sent equipment and money for salaries. After an intelligence work we found out that instead of 14.000 the NLF leadership equipped only 350. One can ask where did all the money and equipment go? I think the answer is clear. So basically we should make everything possible in order NOT to create joint operation rooms with HTS and be dependent on them for even one bullet spent.

Such a war will be an official state of war that would lead to the occupation of the north of Syria by TSK and the end of all regulating and de-escalation initiatives with Russia and Iran in the region. The consequences on a regional level I don't even want to imagine. We don't have the capacity to deal with such a situation and all the consequences that will arise, no matter if we look it economically, militarily or politically.

HTS without head can not deter the Regime and currently Idlib means HTS. The reason why we don't have the same attitude towards them is because they keep the Regime out of Idlib with the mean of their military force. They also are not in an open, all out war with us. We don't like them and they don't like us, but they know that we are the only choice they got in order to receive supplies like living goods and Turkiye is the only route where large scale smuggling can work which is getting them money. Idlib is a different economy. Basically we let them eat, they keep the Regime out and occupied.

Another reason for why we shouldn't intervene in this way in Idlib is the nature of the organization. If we make it this way, on the next week we will see how suicide bombers blow themselves everywhere in Turkiye. HTS is currently not a threat for the internal security in Turkiye, but it quickly may become. We should destroy them and seize all the areas where they can develop a new network. They should be destroyed in the same way Hurras Ad-Deen (Al-Qaeda Syria) was destroyed. I am confident that the US and he Coalition will also support this.

In my opinion the only viable solution will be as I explained in my other posts to push the people and the moderate minds within the HTS and Idlib so they can remove Julani and the radicals from power, assist this rebel force with the help of SNA and TSK (covert unconventional operation led by the Special Forces embedded with our proxy forces, assisted with fire support missions by the artillery units inside Idlib and airstrikes) to exterminate the radicals. In this way we will make them "remove the head" by themselves and we will create a unity between Idlib and our areas under one government (Syrian Interim Government) and one army (Syrian National Army). In this way our hand will strengthen a lot, we will get rid of the foreign fighters and terrorists and we will bring the needed stability in Idlib which will be in the hands of the internationally supported and recognized Opposition. This can be done only if specific conditions are met. We are working on creating these conditions right now. Julani know what we are cooking and also creates a similar situation in our areas, trying to win local support and oust us. The recent tension is only a symptom of this cancer which is currently being cured by MIT and the futureproof system of the Military Academy recently established for the SNA in order to gain loyal officers commanding the SNA, replacing the scum and gangs which are acting as a trojan horse.

By getting SNA and the Interim Government on power in Idlib, both the borders between our areas and Idlib will be abolished, the economy will move more freely and we will get rid of the pretext for military action of Russia. As we see Russia is not targeting SNA forces anymore. They target only HTS and HTS related forces.

We should make everything possible to initiate internal coup in Idlib, unite the two Opposition regions under one leadership (Turkish supported) in such a swift way where we don't create a military weakness which will expose Idlib to the confidence of the Regime army. The Regime should be deterred during the time of this operation.

Making this work is important due to the fact that currently our national security is dependent on a terrorist organization. The power vacuum that will be created if they just perish will be filled by something else which we will not like. We should be ready to fill that power vacuum at the same moment it starts to exist so we don't create conditions for Regime incursion and even other present actors to start expanding their influence like Al-Qaeda (Hurras Ad-Deen) or ISIS.

We should be the one and only, the SNA and the Interim Government should be our ears, eyes and hands.

 

[BaburKhan]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1815696566587396100

 

[Yasar_TR]

Apparently it is claimed that Esad’s wife has lost her fight against leukaemia and passed away!
Let us see how this will affect Esad‘s demeanour and approach related to his policies with Turkey. Any life changing loss like that is bound to have a big effect on anyone‘s decision making process.

Claim that stirred up Syria: Bashar al-Assad's wife, Asma al-Assad, has passed away.

It is claimed that Esma Esad, the wife of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, who was diagnosed with leukemia, has passed away. Following the spread of the news on social media, the Baath Party, led by Assad, denied the allegations.

en.haberler.com

 

[Sanchez]

We should be the one and only, the SNA and the Interim Government should be our ears, eyes and hands.

All good and well, but SNA and SIG have shown time and time again that they are unable to be unified and they are unable to rule their areas even with Turkish state apparatus handling most of the heavy lifting. Fırst thing HTS did when they ousted SNA from north of Idlib was to bring their municipality workers to clean the streets and remove the trash, a la ISIS.

All this planning also doesn't account for the civilian population of Idlib, who mostly are refugees for the last 10 years, living under ISIS-lite. Every single young man living in Idlib is no doubt radicalized already. Even in the best case scenario, we will have suicide bombers in our cities.

 

[Kartal1]

All good and well, but SNA and SIG have shown time and time again that they are unable to be unified and they are unable to rule their areas even with Turkish state apparatus handling most of the heavy lifting. Fırst thing HTS did when they ousted SNA from north of Idlib was to bring their municipality workers to clean the streets and remove the trash, a la ISIS.

All this planning also doesn't account for the civilian population of Idlib, who mostly are refugees for the last 10 years, living under ISIS-lite. Every single young man living in Idlib is no doubt radicalized already. Even in the best case scenario, we will have suicide bombers in our cities.

The problem with SNA is that many of them are not on the same page. Some are Islamists, other Kurdish nationalists, other Turkmen supremacists, criminal lords etc. The root of this is that because of the dire need for experienced fighters we unified a "menemen" trying to make it homogenous and failed. The decision makers saw this (unfortunately too late) and started the project for the establishment of Military Academy which will hopefully produce high quality officers that will replace the scum. Next I expect for a better HR system which will ensure that the fighters we employ are of higher quality and step on the same page. One of the things of which the YPG/PKK is superior to the SNA is the same ideological base. We should achieve the same and create a higher purpose than just to fight the Assad Regime. We should let these people know that their future is in their hands.

In Idlib the situation is a bit different. There is a dictatorship that has also a highly established "Statehood" if we can call it that way for the standard of Syria, firmly established institutions and security apparatus that work extremely well. They got the deterrence, the propaganda and everything needed in order to exist as a separate State if we allow their economy to work. When you cross from our controlled territories to Idlib, one can clearly see the difference in quality. The main reason is that their system is built around common ground which are these radical views.

In the past whenever somebody raised his voice he was either killed or first arrested, then tortured and killed. The people were fearing the wrath of HTS, because they saw what happens to the traitors and renegades. Thanks God due to some initiatives of the powerful opposition (to Julani) people we started to see protests. In a sign of support there are protests occasionally organized (with our support) in our areas too in support with the people of Idlib and their struggle. The people of Idlib are largely fed up of this nonsense, they do not like where the things are going and understand perfectly that under Julani and HTS there is no good future for them. There is not a good future in anything that is labeled as a terrorist organization, especially an "Islamic" extremist one like the HTS. So in result of this awakening protests started to be held all around the Idlib enclave with protesters from all ages and classes, including women. So I am sure that if we promise them a better future, they see some results in terms of dollars and security, they would support us just as we support them.

If we want them to trust us first of all we must give the example of what we are talking about here by sorting out the problems in our controlled areas. We should establish a "Statehood" firmly on a moderate Islamist base, keeping the soul of the revolution alive. We would need a purge for this first and I am delighted to see that groups like the Shahba Gathering received their fair share of our treating. Groups like Ahrar Awlan also receive a special treatment by us, but all this will be a successful initiative after the Military Academy starts pumping officers. Both HTS groups and corruption/mafia lords are at their positions because they are the ones that choose who to be a member of their group and the leaders of these groups are untouchable. With the Military Academy and the restructuring process of SNA, the dispersing of the groups (organizations) within the SNA like we did with the Shahba Gathering will prevent the forming of gangs and command staff, other important posts will not be filled with the decision of a group or a gangster, but a higher authority under our control. We already saw a very successful example of this system with the Police force. The only force that I personally would trust in Syria is the Military Police. The Military Academy is a very important project that will go in parallel with the SNA restructuring initiative. What I am worried about is that we are moving too slow and as we Turks like to say "the water sleeps, the enemy is not".

 

[Saithan]

The problem with SNA is that many of them are not on the same page. Some are Islamists, other Kurdish nationalists, other Turkmen supremacists, criminal lords etc. The root of this is that because of the dire need for experienced fighters we unified a "menemen" trying to make it homogenous and failed. The decision makers saw this (unfortunately too late) and started the project for the establishment of Military Academy which will hopefully produce high quality officers that will replace the scum. Next I expect for a better HR system which will ensure that the fighters we employ are of higher quality and step on the same page. One of the things of which the YPG/PKK is superior to the SNA is the same ideological base. We should achieve the same and create a higher purpose than just to fight the Assad Regime. We should let these people know that their future is in their hands.

In Idlib the situation is a bit different. There is a dictatorship that has also a highly established "Statehood" if we can call it that way for the standard of Syria, firmly established institutions and security apparatus that work extremely well. They got the deterrence, the propaganda and everything needed in order to exist as a separate State if we allow their economy to work. When you cross from our controlled territories to Idlib, one can clearly see the difference in quality. The main reason is that their system is built around common ground which are these radical views.

In the past whenever somebody raised his voice he was either killed or first arrested, then tortured and killed. The people were fearing the wrath of HTS, because they saw what happens to the traitors and renegades. Thanks God due to some initiatives of the powerful opposition (to Julani) people we started to see protests. In a sign of support there are protests occasionally organized (with our support) in our areas too in support with the people of Idlib and their struggle. The people of Idlib are largely fed up of this nonsense, they do not like where the things are going and understand perfectly that under Julani and HTS there is no good future for them. There is not a good future in anything that is labeled as a terrorist organization, especially an "Islamic" extremist one like the HTS. So in result of this awakening protests started to be held all around the Idlib enclave with protesters from all ages and classes, including women. So I am sure that if we promise them a better future, they see some results in terms of dollars and security, they would support us just as we support them.

If we want them to trust us first of all we must give the example of what we are talking about here by sorting out the problems in our controlled areas. We should establish a "Statehood" firmly on a moderate Islamist base, keeping the soul of the revolution alive. We would need a purge for this first and I am delighted to see that groups like the Shahba Gathering received their fair share of our treating. Groups like Ahrar Awlan also receive a special treatment by us, but all this will be a successful initiative after the Military Academy starts pumping officers. Both HTS groups and corruption/mafia lords are at their positions because they are the ones that choose who to be a member of their group and the leaders of these groups are untouchable. With the Military Academy and the restructuring process of SNA, the dispersing of the groups (organizations) within the SNA like we did with the Shahba Gathering will prevent the forming of gangs and command staff, other important posts will not be filled with the decision of a group or a gangster, but a higher authority under our control. We already saw a very successful example of this system with the Police force. The only force that I personally would trust in Syria is the Military Police. The Military Academy is a very important project that will go in parallel with the SNA restructuring initiative. What I am worried about is that we are moving too slow and as we Turks like to say "the water sleeps, the enemy is not".

I'd like to add that the situation will not improve if our "brass" goes to someone in power and ask them to send officer candidates to the academy.

I remember explaining about how our "brass" was doing in Somalia. Asking tribe-mentality-ruled person to send us troops we can train... Who does he send, his own tribesmen.

We need to evaluate all candiates ourselves and hopefully with secularity as a starting point.

 

[Kartal1]

I'd like to add that the situation will not improve if our "brass" goes to someone in power and ask them to send officer candidates to the academy.

I remember explaining about how our "brass" was doing in Somalia. Asking tribe-mentality-ruled person to send us troops we can train... Who does he send, his own tribesmen.

We need to evaluate all candiates ourselves and hopefully with secularity as a starting point.

I agree with your points except with one and it is not because I don't support it on 100%, but because with the current reality, the culture and other factors within the society it is just impossible to achieve.

Secularity is something that you can hardly find in the camp we support. We can currently find mild Islamism at best. The most important I think is to be able to distinguish between the mild Islamists and the radical extremists and establish such a system where we can control the processes on the front of religion, employ sheikhs who are our boys and achieve a state of balance where Islamists would be happy enough and the processes around the government of these areas can also take advantage of smooth and secular in nature way of ruling these areas.

Radicalism must be rooted out completely. All the radical ideology supporters must be given two choices. Either adapt to a secular/mild Islamist way of life or be ready to be a black stain in this society and be dealt with accordingly.