Live Conflict Myanmar Civil War

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(NSFW) Karen state rebels of the KNLA recorded a deadly linear ambush on Myanmar (Burma) troops reportedly taking place on May 26, 2021.

The ambush is textbook US military doctrine. The commander uses hand signs to relay the number of approaching enemy troops, which appears to be four. He then initiates the ambush with their "killingest" weapon, a claymore antipersonnel mine.

Once the mine pops, the rebels open up with small arms fire, and the commander can be seen reeling in the remainder of the claymore's command wire. A maneuver team then approaches the kill zone to clear it. As they do, a support-by-fire element shifts their fire out of the kill zone to the flanks, ensuring any nearby unseen enemy forces are suppressed.

The maneuver element hastily eliminates any remaining resistance and loots the bodies for weapons and equipment. They then quickly withdraw from the area before a government counter assault team can arrive.

The ambush was likely predated by days of observation to learn the soldiers' patterns and travel ways, which allowed for the most effective placement of the claymore mine.


 

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Rohingya urge Myanmar shadow government to keep promise, denounce role in past​

Members of the Rohingya community expressed a cautious response to a declaration of Policy Position on the Rohingya in Rakhine State by the National Unity Government (NUG), an anti-coup shadow government in Myanmar.

The exile government that was formed in April, issued the policy on Thursday for the first time.

It proclaims to restore citizenship rights to Rohingya, starting long-stalled repatriation of the persecuted people and repealing a controversial 1982 Citizenship Law and deceptive National Verification Cards system.

Global rights defenders hailed the declaration and recommended it include Rohingya representatives in anti-coup and pro-democratic processes.

The Rohingya, however, are wary about the NUG policy as they recalled their past plights and deprivation under the very same leaders when they held power with the blessings of the Tatmadaw, or Myanmar military.

At a refugee camp in Bangladesh, Mayyu Khan warned that the Rohingya is always in doubt about if a new move is “a ploy or a plan.”

Khan said, “We are scared of it.” It being the shadow government formed by deposed lawmakers from the National League for Democracy (NLD) party of detained State Counsellor and de facto leader Aung San Suu Kyi.

“When we are given back our citizenship and repatriated properly, our greatest desire will be fulfilled,” he said.

Despite the bitter experiences of the past, the Rohingya always worked positively, he said.

“In fact, the NUG government is a new version of NLD. They have never publicly tried to address the Rohingya issue, but the Rohingyas have fully supported them and participated in their works.”

Prize-winning Rohingya rights defender Razia Sultana said, “We paid too much and when we asked for it, most of them [NUG leaders] were silent and with the course of time they are under the same situation.”

She did, however, welcome the new policy as a positive. “Whatever, whoever except the Tatmadaw, we are ready to hold hands with our country people for peace.”

Underlining the core desire of Rohingya, she added that the community has “no more expectation, just want to be part of Burma [Myanmar].”

Dr. Ambia Perveen, chair of the European Rohingya Council said the declaration is “most positive” but “only action will confirm or prove their words.”

“We are repeatedly highlighting our demands of returning of the Rohingya with rights, safety and dignity to their places of origin and taking all necessary measures in order to bring all perpetrators of genocide to justice,” she said.

To restore Rohingya confidence in the shadow government, she recommended that the “NUG needs to have a Rohingya representative on their team and especially they need to involve the voices of refugees.”

What the NUG policy says

The policy declared a clear principle on issuing citizenship. “All citizens who swear allegiance to the Union regardless of their ethnic origins are considered to have full enjoyment of citizens’ rights. The National Unity Government will not tolerate any form of discrimination.”

The same policy will be applied as the “basis to address the Rohingya crisis," it said, and “shared solutions” will respect “the human rights of all persons.”

Addressing the elimination of the military dictatorship as the common goal of all people, it said the NUG will apply all policies in “consultations with the many different stakeholders in Rakhine State, including Rohingya groups and refugee representatives from the IDP [Internally Displaced People] camps.”

Referring to inhumane military clampdowns on Rohingya for decades, including brutalities in August 2017, the policy paper said: “Repatriation and Justice will be ensured in the future Federal Democratic Union Constitution.”

“We intend, if necessary, to initiate processes to grant International Criminal Court jurisdiction over crimes committed within Myanmar against the Rohingyas and other communities,” it said.

The NUG also encouraged the Rohingya to actively join their anti-coup movement. “We invite Rohingyas to join hands with us and with others to participate in this Spring Revolution against the military dictatorship in all possible ways.”

Abolishing discriminatory laws

The new policy also assured the abolishment of all discriminatory laws in Myanmar. “The process of repealing, amending, and promulgating laws, including the 1982 Citizenship Law, by the new constitution … will be beneficial in resolving the conflict in Rakhine State,” it said.

Underlining the much-talked-about Rohingya citizenship issue, it added: “The Rohingya are entitled to citizenship by laws that will accord with fundamental human rights norms and democratic federal principle.”

About the tricky verification card system, it said: “We further commit to abolishing the process of issuing National Verification Cards.”

Meanwhile, international human rights NGO, Fortify Rights, in a statement on Thursday urged the NUG to appoint an ethnic-Rohingya representative to the process.

“This is an important moment for the Rohingya people and Myanmar as a whole,” said Matthew Smith, Chief Executive Officer of Fortify Rights, adding that “the new policy establishes a foundation for the future realization of Rohingya rights in Myanmar, and for a more unified path to democracy.”
 

Kartal1

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The casualty numbers are so big. I am wondering how that conflict don't take more coverage in the international media.

Is there a source where we can keep track of the conflict? Also I am interested in combat footage or any kind of media initiatives by the rebels.
 

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The casualty numbers are so big. I am wondering how that conflict don't take more coverage in the international media.

Is there a source where we can keep track of the conflict? Also I am interested in combat footage or any kind of media initiatives by the rebels.

The site regularly follows the Myanmar civil war.
 

Nilgiri

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The casualty numbers are so big. I am wondering how that conflict don't take more coverage in the international media.

Is there a source where we can keep track of the conflict? Also I am interested in combat footage or any kind of media initiatives by the rebels.

It's essentially turned into a civil war now.

Largest I have seen it since the democratic forces are officially backing the rebels and anyone that is against the junta (remember it was NLD that brought all groups together to invest into the new constitution which has been effectively scrapped now by junta).

But thing is Burma is no stranger to such things (and is put in its own black/grey box) in past so world media is more or less desensitized to spreading fire after the initial main ignitions/sparks (the coup and initial crackdowns).

30% of Burma is always going to be contested when SHTF just by makeup of the country and its geography. 70% (incl the core areas to finance junta) is more than enough for junta to keep going (esp given PRC cover) and not have too many key defections (I was predicting at least 1 - 2 by now but so far zero, so looks like junta prepped well before the coup itself and will keep most or all core areas secure under their control in the mid term).

But 30% is also big enough to produce quite drastic numbers in newsreel (past the world media) for very long time.
 

Kartal1

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It's essentially turned into a civil war now.

Largest I have seen it since the democratic forces are officially backing the rebels and anyone that is against the junta (remember it was NLD that brought all groups together to invest into the new constitution which has been effectively scrapped now by junta).

But thing is Burma is no stranger to such things (and is put in its own black/grey box) in past so world media is more or less desensitized to spreading fire after the initial main ignitions/sparks (the coup and initial crackdowns).

30% of Burma is always going to be contested when SHTF just by makeup of the country and its geography. 70% (incl the core areas to finance junta) is more than enough for junta to keep going (esp given PRC cover) and not have too many key defections (I was predicting at least 1 - 2 by now but so far zero, so looks like junta prepped well before the coup itself and will keep most or all core areas secure under their control in the mid term).

But 30% is also big enough to produce quite drastic numbers in newsreel (past the world media) for very long time.
Thank you for your insight! I am amazed every time I enter this thread by the intensity of the conflict and the casualty numbers. My Twitter is absolutely silent about the whole situation. Now I am more interested into this conflict and would like to learn more about it.
 

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It's essentially turned into a civil war now.

Largest I have seen it since the democratic forces are officially backing the rebels and anyone that is against the junta (remember it was NLD that brought all groups together to invest into the new constitution which has been effectively scrapped now by junta).

But thing is Burma is no stranger to such things (and is put in its own black/grey box) in past so world media is more or less desensitized to spreading fire after the initial main ignitions/sparks (the coup and initial crackdowns).

30% of Burma is always going to be contested when SHTF just by makeup of the country and its geography. 70% (incl the core areas to finance junta) is more than enough for junta to keep going (esp given PRC cover) and not have too many key defections (I was predicting at least 1 - 2 by now but so far zero, so looks like junta prepped well before the coup itself and will keep most or all core areas secure under their control in the mid term).

But 30% is also big enough to produce quite drastic numbers in newsreel (past the world media) for very long time.
What else to expect from a junta /coup government?
Unfortunately it is pretty much the same in everywhere except a few, just it is ignored if the west is backing the coup or it is in favor of them.
 

Nilgiri

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Thank you for your insight! I am amazed every time I enter this thread by the intensity of the conflict and the casualty numbers. My Twitter is absolutely silent about the whole situation. Now I am more interested into this conflict and would like to learn more about it.

Lot of it traces back a long time to really understand it well and put into context....Burma's history is quite fascinating subject.

Their large scale repeated wars with Thailand/Siam....their respective identities/issues formed during that (same for Khmer and Vietnamese further east). How these are remembered and harnessed today.

How the psyche shaped in more modern time due to Anglo-Burma wars (when Burma under its last dynasty eventually got colonized by British, but Thailand did not).

Then anti-colonial movement, WW2 (involvement of Japan in all this), independence-push and role of Aung San....and his early assassination....and the effect that has had undeniably on modern Burma (the void that was left for Burmese military to come to power eventually under Ne Win and how that evolved to a junta after he was counter-couped).

There is huge inertia from all of this underlying why Burma is in the current state of affairs (with armed ethnic groups who are outside the majority bamar whom the junta primarily take power/authority from)....i.e why a constitutional republic was always going to be tenuous and difficult to prove at best, and why now far worse has ended up happening....maybe inevitably.
 

Isa Khan

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Is there a source where we can keep track of the conflict? Also I am interested in combat footage or any kind of media initiatives by the rebels.
My Twitter is absolutely silent about the whole situation.

You can follow this one.

 

Isa Khan

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Resistance Fighters Inflict Heavy Losses on Junta Forces in Myanmar’s Chin State​

1623143300517.png

Junta soldiers patrol in Mindat, Chin State on Sunday. / Zalen

By THE IRRAWADDY 7 June 2021

Around 50 junta soldiers were killed on Sunday as fighting intensified between regime troops and Chin civilian resistance fighters in Mindat, Chin State, prompting the regime to call in air strikes. Resistance fighters also claimed junta forces used chemical weapons during the clashes.

At about 10 a.m. on Sunday, Chinland Defense Force-Mindat fighters launched a defensive action against around 100 military soldiers traveling to raid Phayar Sakhan and other villages in northeastern Mindat.

A spokesperson for Chinland Defense Force-Mindat told The Irrawaddy on Monday that the civilian resistance fighters were later attacked in Mindat by an artillery unit based in Kyaukhtu, Magwe Region, 33 km to the east.

Civilian resistance fighters were also attacked with heavy explosives by junta troops based in Mindat and a nearby village.

In the shootout, around 40 junta soldiers were killed. Two Mindat civilian resistance fighters were killed and six injured.

After losing a large number of soldiers in the shootout, the military regime bombarded the civilian resistance fighters twice using fighter aircraft, according to a statement from the Mindat People’s Administration.

A spokesperson for the Mindat Defense Force said most of their resistance fighters were armed with old-fashioned homemade hunting rifles, and some with homemade single-barrel shotguns. The junta used heavy explosives, artillery, automatic weapons and fighter aircraft.

The spokesperson also claimed that the junta troops used chemical weapons in attacking the civilian resistance fighters, saying some of the military’s explosives contained no shrapnel but left the civilian fighters unconscious or feeling dizzy.

At about 10 a.m. on Sunday, another shootout between military troops and the Mindat Defense Force broke out near Shat Village in northwest Mindat.

The shootout occurred when civilian fighters took defensive action against 80 junta soldiers traveling to conduct raids in villages that are sheltering internally displaced persons from Mindat.

During the shootout, civilian resistance fighters were also attacked by artillery from the military’s Battalion 271 based in the mountaintop town of Mindat.

In the firefight, about 10 junta soldiers were killed. Meanwhile, a civilian resistance fighter was killed and 15 were injured by the junta’s artillery shells.

The shootout continued until Monday morning, a member of the Mindat Defense Force said.

The spokesperson for the Mindat Defense Force said the military regime is committing war crimes against the people as it is using powerful weapons including artillery, explosives, automatic rifles, and aircraft to attack civilian resistance fighters armed with old-fashioned homemade firearms. The spokesperson added that the junta soldiers are using narcotics.

“The international community and Myanmar have already learned what kind of institution the military regime is. There are no words to describe the inferior status and brutality of the junta. So, we will keep fighting them,” the spokesperson said.

Firefights between the military troops and civilian resistance fighters from the Mindat Defense Forces have been occurring continuously since May 12, when a ceasefire agreed in late April broke down.

Due to the firefights, 90 percent of Mindat’s population of 25,000 have fled the town. Most residents are now sheltering at camps opened in villages in the township.

 
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Isa Khan

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not have too many key defections (I was predicting at least 1 - 2 by now but so far zero

About 800 soldiers have left the military to join the Civil Disobedience Movement (CDM) since the February 1 coup, a former captain who is helping people to defect has told Myanmar Now.

Lin Htet Aung, 29, defected in late March and has since teamed up with more defectors to assist others in leaving the military. He served in the 528th Infantry Battalion under the Triangle Region Command in eastern Shan state.

About three quarters of those who have defected are ready to join the People’s Defense Force (PDF) to fight against the regime, he said. The rest would like to help the revolution in other ways but do not want to fight, he added.

Around 100 of the defectors had been serving as officers with ranks including major, captain, and lieutenant.

Some have travelled to border regions controlled by ethnic armed groups and are giving crash courses in combat to people who fled cities to take up arms against the junta.

Most defectors are from the navy and air force; soldiers from infantry regiments have found it more difficult to flee due to the fear of repercussions against their families.

“The main reason they can’t defect is because they’re performing frontline operations and are separated from their families,” said Lin Htet Aung.

“They don’t have access to our statements either, so that doesn’t help,” he added, referring to public pleas by defectors for other soldiers to join CDM.

Between 40 and 50 of those who have defected left their families behind in military housing, he said. “They don’t know what to do and they have no support. There’s no way for them to reach out to their families.”

Most of the defectors are aged between 2o and 35 and no one above the rank of major has defected.

“We don’t expect anything from those in higher ranks,” Lin Htet Aung said. “The higher up they are, the more scared they are of losing their positions.”

“If they defected this fight would be over quickly,” he added.


30% of Burma is always going to be contested when SHTF just by makeup of the country and its geography. 70% (incl the core areas to finance junta) is more than enough for junta to keep going

With all the reports in this entire thread, protest (which i don't share here) and armed clashes and these maps from 2016 and this year; does it seem to you that only 30% of Burma is currently contested? Even Yangoon is getting heated up recently.


1623251392169.png



1623251421275.png


It's essentially turned into a civil war now.

Largest I have seen it since the democratic forces are officially backing the rebels and anyone that is against the junta (remember it was NLD that brought all groups together to invest into the new constitution which has been effectively scrapped now by junta).

But thing is Burma is no stranger to such things (and is put in its own black/grey box) in past so world media is more or less desensitized to spreading fire after the initial main ignitions/sparks (the coup and initial crackdowns).

30% of Burma is always going to be contested when SHTF just by makeup of the country and its geography. 70% (incl the core areas to finance junta) is more than enough for junta to keep going (esp given PRC cover) and not have too many key defections (I was predicting at least 1 - 2 by now but so far zero, so looks like junta prepped well before the coup itself and will keep most or all core areas secure under their control in the mid term).

But 30% is also big enough to produce quite drastic numbers in newsreel (past the world media) for very long time.

Is it me or does your current statement looks lot different than the previous one?

 
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Nilgiri

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About 800 soldiers have left the military to join the Civil Disobedience Movement (CDM) since the February 1 coup, a former captain who is helping people to defect has told Myanmar Now.

Yah, I mean like higher officer ranks, colonel and above.


With all the reports in this entire thread, protest (which i don't share here) and armed clashes and these maps from 2016 and this year; does it seem to you that only 30% of Burma is currently contested? Even Yangoon is getting heated up recently.

I'd say at least 30% (right off the bat), it could be higher esp now that Shan have joined and are joining....

The exact number is hard to determine...lot of Burma (by area given jungle) is very uninhabited and effectively not controlled to begin with if they arent strategically worth it by any side.

In lot of yellow areas of that map, Junta does hold large areas in more uncontested fashion....it just coloured entire state once part of it has conflict. More resolution I would say overall map would look from 30-50% contested + rebel held.

Is it me or does your current statement looks lot different than the previous one?

Yup there has been progression to today from "just" KIA/KIO. Kachin always flares up first, they are well armed, identify very separately ethnically (to Bamar) and most reluctant to trust Bamar junta (as was done after long time by NDL constitution reconciliation that is now over).

So various other groups have joined them in lower burma (Karen etc) too.

In Eastern Burma, Shan have now entered the fray unlike back then when they were possibly waiting to see what the contours would look like (Shan notoriously mistrust just about everyone, junta and other ethnic groups).

But I don't think the Shan have gone to 100% mode yet compared to Kachin.

For one along with Wa (whom they have their own drawn out conflict with), they are more reluctant to officially join the anti-junta alliance that has taken shape...and would rather do their own approach to dealing with junta on their turf:


The ethnic unity expressed in the NUG’s Charter declaration does not address the numerous conflicting interests among the members. The 20 to 30 participating EAOs are divided, and some have not joined the alliance, such as the United Wa State Army, the largest numbering 20,000 soldiers, and the Restoration Council of Shan State. Both have strong ties with China and also probably want to guard their resources, including the drugs trade.
 
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