Pakistan Pakistan Economy Updates

Lonewolf

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*sigh* It's what Turkey has been turned into the past 10 years.

The only solution is having the smart people come on tv programs and tell the people of the situation, create an awareness and put it into words. They will probably end up getting killed for creating and formulating that awareness.

This goes for all countries with horrible leadership.
One common observation in case of all islamic nations , corrupt regime use religion as coverup for all f*ckup , isn't it worrying for u guys , as it will not only reduce your economic situation but also worsen social order and hate for religion will increase , which if create riots will further effect economy .

@Bilal Khan(Quwa) isn't same thing happening in case of TLP right now
 

Bilal Khan(Quwa) 

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One common observation in case of all islamic nations , corrupt regime use religion as coverup for all f*ckup , isn't it worrying for u guys , as it will not only reduce your economic situation but also worsen social order and hate for religion will increase , which if create riots will further effect economy .

@Bilal Khan(Quwa) isn't same thing happening in case of TLP right now
The issue with Pakistan is far simpler. Think of every institution, group, or even religious entity, and then remove the best people. That's the problem. Even in the West, you'll find hardworking Pakistanis across the spectrum. I'm actually religious myself. Yet, if I go to Pakistan and talk based on religion, I'll disappear. If I do it and talk as a sincere journalist, I'll disappear. If I do it as a sincere secular person, I'll disappear. If I do it as a sincere Christian or Hindu, I'll get lynched.

It's the same issue within the political class and armed forces. My father could have just sat around, shut up and rose to Air Commodore, but instead, he (along with a dozen others) had raised their views about structural injustice, and the result was they all prematurely retired (surrendering all of their perks) and left to the Gulf or West. Those individuals later went on to work for Boeing, LM, Texas Instruments, Microsoft, Ford Motors, or the MoDs of the UAE, Qatar, and Kuwait.

TLP is the byproduct. If you're left with the worst religious guys, you'll get TLPs. Likewise, if you're left with the worst secular guys, you'll get PPP and PML. Truth is, if you retained the high-caliber Pakistanis, the differences will remain, but it would never resort to violence and chaos. Ultimately, the corrupt (full stop) need to go, it's as simple as that. Unfortunately, removing them would require tough, very tough, decisions. Frankly, I don't have the stomach for it personally.
 

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This. Shoaib Akhtar went through the exact experience of every competent Pakistani. What you see here is what happens in our institutions, armed forces, academia, political parties, and so on. If this is how you treat the subject matter experts, then, of course, you're not going to succeed. The stupidity at play was so overwhelming Shoaib Akhtar could only walk away. That, folks, is the story of competent Pakistanis in a nutshell. @Nilgiri @VCheng @Lonewolf


Pity to see Shoaib treated like that....I remember that era of cricket (he was part of at his prime) quite fondly.
I distinctly remember rushing home from school, switching the telly on (or joining dad) and watching if sachin could handle shoaib on that day hehe....days like the 99 and 03 world cups iirc.

Pakistan was already spoiled for choice (in bowling) with folks like Akram and Younis. Some great cricketing memories for me all around.

===========================

Adding to what you already said:

Growing trust in a system is the hardest + time consuming thing to do....but it is worth it in the end.

Everyone wants a fair shake intrinsically and expect what they put in to a system, they will get out the same amount or more.

That is how trust is cultivated long term till it becomes 2nd nature. Accepting everyone as they are and getting on with true nation building (its really matter of bonds of trust in the end....forged and conveyed from one generation to next one).

Countries succeed at this to varying degrees for varying reasons.

If you do not have sufficient development of this more intangible (but extremely FELT) factor in society....you will see this corrupted individualism take root to fill the void. I say that as a proponent of individualism in many ways (but on the matter of rights and opportunity).....it can also take on an abused form if you let it.

Where people like this other fella feel over-protective and undermined by someone knowing lot more/ doing lot more/ proven about something.

They just ape all that they have seen earlier in the system at large...so all that is bad entrenches even more with time.

i.e Non-trust, untruth, immorality, irrationality and all of that as it weighs and transmits in various imperfect souls.

Competence becomes a threat to their position and status....and when it makes itself known anyway....the predictable abuse in whatever silly-walk format follows shortly.

Competence needs a larger system of trust to flourish otherwise its squandered in the toxic zero sum mentality of protecting every last thing you have in some entitled yet survivalist fashion each time.

Society being confident in its skin for many decades (even centuries) really is something taken for granted in more matured places.....it is not easy to genuinely develop at all.
 

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Back to business as usual....3 billion is like 3 tail-enders (picked by saudi cricket board, not PCB) to send out after wickets fell and see how they do...


The team captain's recent musings were pointed out to me by @VCheng recently:


Errmmmm....ok.

It is one of earlier convo on topic of competence being squelched in bottom layers....and incompetents pushed to top.

Takes a whole new dimension in Pakistan.

CPEC will fix it all! Just you wait and see.
 

Bilal Khan(Quwa) 

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Back to business as usual....3 billion is like 3 tail-enders (picked by saudi cricket board, not PCB) to send out after wickets fell and see how they do...


The team captain's recent musings were pointed out to me by @VCheng recently:


Errmmmm....ok.

It is one of earlier convo on topic of competence being squelched in bottom layers....and incompetents pushed to top.

Takes a whole new dimension in Pakistan.

CPEC will fix it all! Just you wait and see.

I remember co-authoring an internal think-tank paper with a couple of Pakistani economists 12 years back arguing how to solve the account deficit issues. Simply put, we had advocated for a market protection program that forces outside brands to manufacture domestically.

So, for example, if you're Toyota and want to sell cars and trucks in Pakistan, you need to source 51% of the car's value domestically. We know that some companies go 70-90% value sourcing in India, but we kept ours super flexible at 51%. You'd be surprised to know that even stupid things like interior trim and seating materials were being imported into Pakistan!

The rationale was that Pakistani cars service the local market without torpedoing our hard currency and, potentially, produce hard-currency gains by exporting cars to Central Asia. We then asked for combining this with a concerted investment in education and skill-building (without taking a dime from defence).

We laid out how to get the revenue for it. The idea was that sustained investment in education and snowballing market protection would result in an industry that can one day absorb more complex production work. Granted, it wasn't a tier-one economic policy paper. After all, you're talking about three 20-21-year olds who are just trying to complete their graduate degrees. But I swear to this day, the research, data analysis and other inputs of that paper is more thorough than the papers the Pakistani gov't and armed forces are making today. I will bet that this paper uses the term "regression analysis" more than an entire year's worth of GOP economy papers.
 

Lonewolf

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I remember co-authoring an internal think-tank paper with a couple of Pakistani economists 12 years back arguing how to solve the account deficit issues. Simply put, we had advocated for a market protection program that forces outside brands to manufacture domestically.

So, for example, if you're Toyota and want to sell cars and trucks in Pakistan, you need to source 51% of the car's value domestically. We know that some companies go 70-90% value sourcing in India, but we kept ours super flexible at 51%. You'd be surprised to know that even stupid things like interior trim and seating materials were being imported into Pakistan!

The rationale was that Pakistani cars service the local market without torpedoing our hard currency and, potentially, produce hard-currency gains by exporting cars to Central Asia. We then asked for combining this with a concerted investment in education and skill-building (without taking a dime from defence).

We laid out how to get the revenue for it. The idea was that sustained investment in education and snowballing market protection would result in an industry that can one day absorb more complex production work. Granted, it wasn't a tier-one economic policy paper. After all, you're talking about three 20-21-year olds who are just trying to complete their graduate degrees. But I swear to this day, the research, data analysis and other inputs of that paper is more thorough than the papers the Pakistani gov't and armed forces are making today. I will bet that this paper uses the term "regression analysis" more than an entire year's worth of GOP economy papers.
Well isn't defence spending one of your major budget eater ,some independent think tanks said that your defence budget is understated , and pensions etc kept out to make it look small .

And defence spending if done in indigenous development and production can be really helpful .
 

Bilal Khan(Quwa) 

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Well isn't defence spending one of your major budget eater ,some independent think tanks said that your defence budget is understated , and pensions etc kept out to make it look small .

And defence spending if done in indigenous development and production can be really helpful .
There's a massive 'public sector development' budget that goes into infrastructure programs. Not much goes into auditing those and explaining what the prime benefit of most that expenditure actually is. In fact, year-after-year you'll find the national auditors raise alarm bells about unaccounted spending (no records or controls) of that budget. But yes, the defence budget is also uncontrolled. The sum in of itself isn't the issue, but we don't really know where it's going.
 

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I remember co-authoring an internal think-tank paper with a couple of Pakistani economists 12 years back arguing how to solve the account deficit issues. Simply put, we had advocated for a market protection program that forces outside brands to manufacture domestically.

So, for example, if you're Toyota and want to sell cars and trucks in Pakistan, you need to source 51% of the car's value domestically. We know that some companies go 70-90% value sourcing in India, but we kept ours super flexible at 51%. You'd be surprised to know that even stupid things like interior trim and seating materials were being imported into Pakistan!

The rationale was that Pakistani cars service the local market without torpedoing our hard currency and, potentially, produce hard-currency gains by exporting cars to Central Asia. We then asked for combining this with a concerted investment in education and skill-building (without taking a dime from defence).

We laid out how to get the revenue for it. The idea was that sustained investment in education and snowballing market protection would result in an industry that can one day absorb more complex production work. Granted, it wasn't a tier-one economic policy paper. After all, you're talking about three 20-21-year olds who are just trying to complete their graduate degrees. But I swear to this day, the research, data analysis and other inputs of that paper is more thorough than the papers the Pakistani gov't and armed forces are making today. I will bet that this paper uses the term "regression analysis" more than an entire year's worth of GOP economy papers.

Reads all too familiar to me.

Pak-origin buddy of mine (he is born in Canada though, only nominally identifies as Pakistani past it)....his father and I developed a valuable friendship....he is a mentor to me in quite a number of ways.

His son (my bud) is very intelligent too (apple doesnt fall far from tree), he worked on a space design project alongside me for couple years....some of my best formative years (looking back now) for project work in my domain....the contacts and friends I made. That is how I eventually made acquaintance with his father.

Anyway his father (intellectual heavyweight of high caliber) went through quite similar frustrating process....he laid things out on the table for branching Pakistan industrially in viable human resource approach from the bottom....and what can be done in the interim etc. He persisted at it with both zia admin and then 90s (sharif bhutto etc)....till he finally realised he was beating the proverbial dead horse again and again....and eventually was noticed by a foreign MNC who took his talent to foreign shores (eventually ending up here in Canada where his youngest boy was born).

Concerning the GOP papers etc.... I did deep delve (when the interest did occupy me and there was environment of relative good faith in PDF still) on number of issues.

There is good quality+competence there too if one looks deep enough (filtering out the noise padded filler to find the diamonds of worth)....I mentioned a young female economist to @VCheng in passing convo....this is 2nd or 3rd time I am bringing her up again without naming her (as I have forgotten).

I will try rectify that later, probably a deep search in the PDF archives might help me....if memory serves me right, there is good chance "jungibaaz" was having a good exchange on the matter with me (whatever the matter was in Economics)....and I think I pointed out her paper and some others at SBP "core quality" level.

Please do say hi for me (if you can) ....to jungibaaz my old friend there...

Anyway I will have to look all that up again...she did a very good frank analysis, I was most impressed.

But it is again case of her and others like her being stuck in the bottom half of SBP and other such control lever organisations.

They have to jostle each day with the "on the ground" Bajwa pizza enterprises, locked drawers, "please take a number, we will be with your shortly"...."dont call us, we'll call you" and all of that stuff....and speak in hushed tones and euphemisms...while they wait and hope....

I told vcheng ppl like her stay at their prime in Pakistan, instead of simply taking a foreign bank gig of their selection.....and cpl decades of best of their life is eventually squandered, like those that did so before them (like my mentor).

The DHA does not let them rise vertically to do anything....precisely because they are competent (and thus inevitably perceived as contrarian).

Then it becomes a matter of understanding the DHA psyche and why it has formed that way....and that is longer story...and it does not need me to tell to you I feel.

You see it all really talked about deeply by folks like Hoodbhoy....his english is great, but in the urdu stuff he really brings out the deepness of what ails Pakistan.
 

Bilal Khan(Quwa) 

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Reads all too familiar to me.

Pak-origin buddy of mine (he is born in Canada though, only nominally identifies as Pakistani past it)....his father and I developed a valuable friendship....he is a mentor to me in quite a number of ways.

His son (my bud) is very intelligent too (apple doesnt fall far from tree), he worked on a space design project alongside me for couple years....some of my best formative years (looking back now) for project work in my domain....the contacts and friends I made. That is how I eventually made acquaintance with his father.

Anyway his father (intellectual heavyweight of high caliber) went through quite similar frustrating process....he laid things out on the table for branching Pakistan industrially in viable human resource approach from the bottom....and what can be done in the interim etc. He persisted at it with both zia admin and then 90s (sharif bhutto etc)....till he finally realised he was beating the proverbial dead horse again and again....and eventually was noticed by a foreign MNC who took his talent to foreign shores (eventually ending up here in Canada where his youngest boy was born).

Concerning the GOP papers etc.... I did deep delve (when the interest did occupy me and there was environment of relative good faith in PDF still) on number of issues.

There is good quality+competence there too if one looks deep enough (filtering out the noise padded filler to find the diamonds of worth)....I mentioned a young female economist to @VCheng in passing convo....this is 2nd or 3rd time I am bringing her up again without naming her (as I have forgotten).

I will try rectify that later, probably a deep search in the PDF archives might help me....if memory serves me right, there is good chance "jungibaaz" was having a good exchange on the matter with me (whatever the matter was in Economics)....and I think I pointed out her paper and some others at SBP "core quality" level.

Please do say hi for me (if you can) ....to jungibaaz my old friend there...

Anyway I will have to look all that up again...she did a very good frank analysis, I was most impressed.

But it is again case of her and others like her being stuck in the bottom half of SBP and other such control lever organisations.

They have to jostle each day with the "on the ground" Bajwa pizza enterprises, locked drawers, "please take a number, we will be with your shortly"...."dont call us, we'll call you" and all of that stuff....and speak in hushed tones and euphemisms...while they wait and hope....

I told vcheng ppl like her stay at their prime in Pakistan, instead of simply taking a foreign bank gig of their selection.....and cpl decades of best of their life is eventually squandered, like those that did so before them (like my mentor).

The DHA does not let them rise vertically to do anything....precisely because they are competent (and thus inevitably perceived as contrarian).

Then it becomes a matter of understanding the DHA psyche and why it has formed that way....and that is longer story...and it does not need me to tell to you I feel.

You see it all really talked about deeply by folks like Hoodbhoy....his english is great, but in the urdu stuff he really brings out the deepness of what ails Pakistan.
Pakistanis eventually realize that our biggest enemies are simply other Pakistanis. Despite what we may say with our words on forums, we expend far, far more energy squabbling with each other than any Indian, American, or Israeli. The results (or lack thereof) in our economy, industry, science R&D, technology growth, etc all speak to this fact. Our top Pakistanis are those who triumphed over other Pakistanis (i.e., politicians, generals, and so on), not any outside power or great insurmountable challenge. IK was a hope, but he couldn't walk his talk. When he was shown the same pressures as preceding politicians, he had the choice to expose the entire system by (1) walking away from it and (2) telling the public exactly who these shady characters are once and for all. If he had done so, he would've torpedoed the entire establishment's credibility in the eyes of the public. Yet, he didn't. He stuck around in the system and became a part of it.
 

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Pakistanis eventually realize that our biggest enemies are simply other Pakistanis. Despite what we may say with our words on forums, we expend far, far more energy squabbling with each other than any Indian, American, or Israeli. The results (or lack thereof) in our economy, industry, science R&D, technology growth, etc all speak to this fact. Our top Pakistanis are those who triumphed over other Pakistanis (i.e., politicians, generals, and so on), not any outside power or great insurmountable challenge. IK was a hope, but he couldn't walk his talk. When he was shown the same pressures as preceding politicians, he had the choice to expose the entire system by (1) walking away from it and (2) telling the public exactly who these shady characters are once and for all. If he had done so, he would've torpedoed the entire establishment's credibility in the eyes of the public. Yet, he didn't. He stuck around in the system and became a part of it.

Imran Khan was always destined to be no more than the useful puppet he was created to be: Naya Pakistan = Purana Pakistan.
 

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Bilal Khan(Quwa) 

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@VCheng past all the usual stuff (its by design etc etc) ....is the general population enquiring why "higher than mountains" iron brother is not stepping in for even a nominal amount of help in these trying times?
In general? No.

But there's a small segment that's skeptical of China, if not hostile to it.

However, they're Pan-Islamists.

Ironically, despite its tolerance or acceptance of mainstream Islamic political parties, the Pakistani establishment will never engage with Pan-Islamists. The latter isn't just out for power for the sake of it (they could've joined the main parties), but they have bigger agendas that endanger the top.

It's not the Islamic flavor that makes Pan-Islamists undesirable (to the establishment), but the fact that they're an independent breed. In that sense, they're structurally similar to the old-school secular groups that used to exist in Pakistan pre-1978. The establishment can't wrangle them, so it fights them.

It's ironic, but of the people who 'disappear' in Pakistan, true-blooded seculars and the Pan-Islamists make up the majority. That should tell us something. I don't know if they'll ever catch on. These 'true blooded' types had never caught on in Pakistan or elsewhere. Secular or Pan-Islamic, they expect way too much from their societies.
 
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@VCheng past all the usual stuff (its by design etc etc) ....is the general population enquiring why "higher than mountains" iron brother is not stepping in for even a nominal amount of help in these trying times?

The "general" population is actually too entangled in just getting by day to day to worry about anything else. Iron Brother gets a pass because the narrative is directed towards painting the IMF as the evil bank inflicting all the pain, without any introspection as to why the situation is heading towards where it must. That is also why TLP is being built up to create the next monster to scare everyone into supporting the officially blessed setup in the next selection cycle once the present one is dismantled to defuse the explosive pressures rising right now.
 

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In general? No.

But there's a small segment that's skeptical of China, if not hostile to it.

However, they're Pan-Islamists.

Ironically, despite its tolerance or acceptance of mainstream Islamic political parties, the Pakistani establishment will never engage with Pan-Islamists. The latter isn't just out for power for the sake of it (they could've joined the main parties), but they have bigger agendas that endanger the top.

It's not the Islamic flavor that makes Pan-Islamists undesirable (to the establishment), but the fact that they're an independent breed. In that sense, they're structurally similar to the old-school secular groups that used to exist in Pakistan pre-1978. The establishment can't wrangle them, so it fights them.

It's ironic, but of the people who 'disappear' in Pakistan, true-blooded seculars and the Pan-Islamists make up the majority. That should tell us something. I don't know if they'll ever catch on. These 'true blooded' types had never caught on in Pakistan or elsewhere. Secular or Pan-Islamic, they expect way too much from their societies.

I understand that. There are still further uneasy combinations involved. Pakistan has evolved into a very complicated society for its population size.

This explain the dissonance at PDF to large degree....the large repetitive threads against KSA, UAE (Gulfies etc), while over-celebrating China (and other more "Asian continental" alliances)....and indulging all the related sycophancies for this...

....but it is KSA that now actually fronted the 3 billion emergency forex....with whatever understandings it involves with Pakistan's power centres.

Whereas China remains quite wary on this matter (short term immediate needs and reliability)....and keeps everything (seemingly) long-term approach as possible. Given Pakistan itself internally is not consolidated to degree they would prefer for that (among other things they prefer at large)....and they see no need to delve into that I feel.


The "general" population is actually too entangled in just getting by day to day to worry about anything else. Iron Brother gets a pass because the narrative is directed towards painting the IMF as the evil bank inflicting all the pain, without any introspection as to why the situation is heading towards where it must. That is also why TLP is being built up to create the next monster to scare everyone into supporting the officially blessed setup in the next selection cycle once the present one is dismantled to defuse the explosive pressures rising right now.

I agree. Well general population I meant online variety with some means and buffer to talk about such things online :p .

It seems to me they are either mostly blinded by certain things, oblivious to them....or resigned. They build up a fantasy regarding countries like China and do not proceed to challenge or call them out (or their own logic on it) on very brazen discrepancies regarding it.

This is repeated with other countries too as well....but China just happens to be the most glaring one in view now with these fiscal problems....and its IMF and KSA etc involved in them.....but not the dragon "strangely"...

That refusal to do so (by this large noisy crowd that assert whatever ideology w.r.t Pakistan patriotism/nationalism).... runs contrary to consistency and rationality.
 

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I agree. Well general population I meant online variety with some means and buffer to talk about such things online :p .


This segment of the "general' population, particularly at the cesspool forum where scum has risen to the top, is best described by the famous song lines:

"Clowns to the left of me, jokers to the right!"

Need I say anymore? :D
 

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This segment of the "general' population, particularly at the cesspool forum where scum has risen to the top, is best described by the famous song lines:

"Clowns to the left of me, jokers to the right!"

Need I say anymore? :D

Yeah I have just looked into other gatherings since....relative non-cesspool ones....since I have formed an understanding cesspools exist for every country online....somewhat inevitably to the larger contexts involved.

But even in these other gatherings ....no one really is asking these questions when the hammer and nail present itself so readily....people much more educated and rational.

Maybe they are just resigned to it...

Folks like Hoodbhoy and Shuja Nawaz can't be carrying this stuff alone (especially given they intellectually must prioritise to scale the vertical side of the argument).....a few torch bearers model is just going to get ignored and snuffed out....

Something needs to spark even among the relative well-to-do that have rationality within them, its not such a small % as one might think (at least in my opinion).

The hammer and nail construction and edifice must take shape beyond them.

Pakistan presents quite conundrum to me.....I mean look at just these two articles I posted....from express tribune.

It shows one large advantage (i.e measure of alignment to a fundamental truth) that Pakistan does have over number of countries (of which I count mightier ones like PRC even)....ready to harness and develop if actioned properly and wisely (but this needs other advantages truth columns for it to support itself and grow).

But looking at this one single solitary pillar (without support and thus no real roof).....the fact the deep problems are aired out in quite some detail if you read it.....shows again what potential is there to question and reform and renew (and then mount the charge on the bastille later when proper)....but only if enough contrarian challengers shape up in some bulk in those with means to do so....to build the further pillars and then the steady roof.

This is the core problem I see in Pakistan.
 

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Folks like Hoodbhoy and Shuja Nawaz can't be carrying this stuff alone (especially given they intellectually must prioritise to scale the vertical side of the argument).....a few torch bearers model is just going to get ignored and snuffed out....

Such folks are definitely on the way out, the percentage is now simply too low to sustain itself.

Pakistan is a conundrum only to those who do not understand it. To me, everything happening there is the product of conscious choices by design. The results are equally inevitable, and very predictable.

(Pity that even this forum, better as it is, could not resist muddying its own waters with some cross-contamination despite the known sewage in the source, a fact that is my continuing conundrum here. :D)
 

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