Pakistan Economy Updates

[VCheng]

Here is a reality check. Most militaries and regimes globally are involved in some kind of militant promotion in some part of the globe. But, this is done as part of State policy.

But, the case with Pakistan is that individual players have started believing their own inner voice (which actually is nothing more than indoctrination) that what they are doing is in benefit of the State. At an individual level.

De-linking becomes all the more difficult when major individual players are involved in supporting recognised terrorst organisations.

if it was only the State, you could always change groups/tacts and the like. But, when your own citizens are involved in the fund raising, well...best of luck.

Given the above, it merely reinforces what I have said earlier: It is in Pakistan's national interests to implement the FATF plan for its own benefits.

 

[Saithan]

Saudi Arabia revives cash, oil support to Pakistan​

Riyadh to deposit $3B in Pakistan's central bank, give oil supplies worth $1.2B on deferred payments​

Aamir Latif |27.10.2021

​

KARACHI, Pakistan
Saudi Arabia has revived its financial support to Pakistan to prop up the South Asian country’s tottering economy.

Riyadh will immediately deposit $3 billion into the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) and provide oil supplies worth $1.2 billion on deferred payments, Pakistani officials confirmed late on Tuesday night.

“The Saudi Development Fund has generously announced for Pakistan an oil deferred payments facility of $1.2 bn/annum and a $3 bn deposit with SBP,” Energy Minister Hammad Azhar said on Twitter.

“This will help ease pressures on our trade & forex accounts as a result of global commodities price surge.”

The development came during Prime Minister Imran Khan’s three-day visit to Riyadh this week, who hailed Saudi Arabia for its consistent support to Islamabad.

“I want to thank HRH Prince Mohammad bin Salman for supporting Pak with $3 bn as deposit in Pak’s central bank & financing refined petroleum product with $1.2 bn,” he said on Twitter.

“KSA (Kingdom of Saudi Arabia) has always been there for Pak in our difficult times incl now when world confronts rising commodity prices.”

In 2018, Riyadh gave $3 billion in cash and a $3 billion oil facility to Pakistan to help shore up its depleted foreign exchange reserves.

However, Islamabad had to return $2 billion of the $3 billion as relations between the two allies deteriorated, mainly on the issue of the 2019 Kuala Lumpur Summit.

The summit, backed by countries including Malaysia and Turkey, was opposed by Saudi Arabia and the UAE, who viewed it as a threat to their grip on the Muslim world.
Pakistan, which was among the initial supporters of the meeting, was forced to pull out of the summit due to Riyadh’s concerns.

Saudi Arabia revives cash, oil support to Pakistan

Riyadh to deposit $3B in Pakistan's central bank, give oil supplies worth $1.2B on deferred payments - Anadolu Ajansı

www.aa.com.tr

 

[Lonewolf]

Saudi Arabia revives cash, oil support to Pakistan​

Riyadh to deposit $3B in Pakistan's central bank, give oil supplies worth $1.2B on deferred payments​

Aamir Latif |27.10.2021

​

KARACHI, Pakistan
Saudi Arabia has revived its financial support to Pakistan to prop up the South Asian country’s tottering economy.

Riyadh will immediately deposit $3 billion into the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) and provide oil supplies worth $1.2 billion on deferred payments, Pakistani officials confirmed late on Tuesday night.

“The Saudi Development Fund has generously announced for Pakistan an oil deferred payments facility of $1.2 bn/annum and a $3 bn deposit with SBP,” Energy Minister Hammad Azhar said on Twitter.

“This will help ease pressures on our trade & forex accounts as a result of global commodities price surge.”

The development came during Prime Minister Imran Khan’s three-day visit to Riyadh this week, who hailed Saudi Arabia for its consistent support to Islamabad.

“I want to thank HRH Prince Mohammad bin Salman for supporting Pak with $3 bn as deposit in Pak’s central bank & financing refined petroleum product with $1.2 bn,” he said on Twitter.

“KSA (Kingdom of Saudi Arabia) has always been there for Pak in our difficult times incl now when world confronts rising commodity prices.”

In 2018, Riyadh gave $3 billion in cash and a $3 billion oil facility to Pakistan to help shore up its depleted foreign exchange reserves.

However, Islamabad had to return $2 billion of the $3 billion as relations between the two allies deteriorated, mainly on the issue of the 2019 Kuala Lumpur Summit.

The summit, backed by countries including Malaysia and Turkey, was opposed by Saudi Arabia and the UAE, who viewed it as a threat to their grip on the Muslim world.
Pakistan, which was among the initial supporters of the meeting, was forced to pull out of the summit due to Riyadh’s concerns.

Saudi Arabia revives cash, oil support to Pakistan

Riyadh to deposit $3B in Pakistan's central bank, give oil supplies worth $1.2B on deferred payments - Anadolu Ajansı

www.aa.com.tr

If currency depreciation really helped that much then this wouldn't be required , cpec is quite successful ....


.....in setting up a debt trap .

@VCheng I wanna ask why the paki established keep planting many newbies on top position , like your nsa , your finance ministry ,these guys don't seem polished for their ministry , more into politics than duties . And Pakistan is huge country ,how come the bureaucracy detach from politics and keep the essential work on track like infra and market balance

 

[VCheng]

@VCheng I wanna ask why the paki established keep planting many newbies on top position , like your nsa , your finance ministry ,these guys don't seem polished for their ministry , more into politics than duties . And Pakistan is huge country ,how come the bureaucracy detach from politics and keep the essential work on track like infra and market balance

This is by design so that there can be no competence higher than relative to the military. We look only for half-wits, so that we can manipulate the other half in our way and in our own time, the rest of the world be damned. It works quite well, but only up to a point, which is the desired outcome. @Nilgiri and I have discussed this many times.

 

[Lonewolf]

This is by design so that there can be no competence higher than relative to the military. We look only for half-wits, so that we can manipulate the other half in our way and in our own time, the rest of the world be damned. It works quite well, but only up to a point, which is the desired outcome. @Nilgiri and I have discussed this many times.

Isn't it creating a huge problem ,not only on economic health but on the talent too , segregation among those blind followers and one with senses will increase , that's social divide of worst category ,where competent are minority

 

[Bilal Khan(Quwa)]

This is by design so that there can be no competence higher than relative to the military. We look only for half-wits, so that we can manipulate the other half in our way and in our own time, the rest of the world be damned. It works quite well, but only up to a point, which is the desired outcome. @Nilgiri and I have discussed this many times.

This is true. The country's best talent and most capable leaders are all abroad. We have Pakistani auditors with 30+ years of experience working on MNC, TNC and public sector books, but they're in Deloitte or PW&C, not in NAB. Likewise, we have PhD professors and R&D engineers working in US and UK aerospace, but not at SUPARCO or PAC. Unfortunately, these people don't tolerate half-day workweeks, 45-minute chai breaks, segregation between "officers" and "others" and mediocrity in product or output, so the Pakistani system rejects them. OTOH, Americans, British and even Indians are cultivating those Pakistanis into leaders.

 

[Lonewolf]

This is true. The country's best talent and most capable leaders are all abroad. We have Pakistani auditors with 30+ years of experience working on MNC, TNC and public sector books, but they're in Deloitte or PW&C, not in NAB. Likewise, we have PhD professors and R&D engineers working in US and UK aerospace, but not at SUPARCO or PAC. Unfortunately, these people don't tolerate half-day workweeks, 45-minute chai breaks, segregation between "officers" and "others" and mediocrity in product or output, so the Pakistani system rejects them. OTOH, Americans, British and even Indians are cultivating those Pakistanis into leaders.

Indians ??? I thought people across border are not allowed here , you mean non resident indian ??

 

[Nilgiri]

Indians ??? I thought people across border are not allowed here , you mean non resident indian ??

Yes Indians in western shores work alongside Pak counterparts in a lot of diverse fields.

 

[Nilgiri]

This is by design so that there can be no competence higher than relative to the military. We look only for half-wits, so that we can manipulate the other half in our way and in our own time, the rest of the world be damned. It works quite well, but only up to a point, which is the desired outcome. @Nilgiri and I have discussed this many times.

Another tweet that aged well:

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1453351651205652485

 

[VCheng]

Isn't it creating a huge problem ,not only on economic health but on the talent too , segregation among those blind followers and one with senses will increase , that's social divide of worst category ,where competent are minority

Is that a problem?

 

[VCheng]

This is true. The country's best talent and most capable leaders are all abroad. We have Pakistani auditors with 30+ years of experience working on MNC, TNC and public sector books, but they're in Deloitte or PW&C, not in NAB. Likewise, we have PhD professors and R&D engineers working in US and UK aerospace, but not at SUPARCO or PAC. Unfortunately, these people don't tolerate half-day workweeks, 45-minute chai breaks, segregation between "officers" and "others" and mediocrity in product or output, so the Pakistani system rejects them. OTOH, Americans, British and even Indians are cultivating those Pakistanis into leaders.

These are only some of the intended results by conscious design that is nourished with a lot of attention.

 

[Bilal Khan(Quwa)]

This. Shoaib Akhtar went through the exact experience of every competent Pakistani. What you see here is what happens in our institutions, armed forces, academia, political parties, and so on. If this is how you treat the subject matter experts, then, of course, you're not going to succeed. The stupidity at play was so overwhelming Shoaib Akhtar could only walk away. That, folks, is the story of competent Pakistanis in a nutshell. @Nilgiri @VCheng @Lonewolf

 

[Lonewolf]

This. Shoaib Akhtar went through the exact experience of every competent Pakistani. What you see here is what happens in our institutions, armed forces, academia, political parties, and so on. If this is how you treat the subject matter experts, then, of course, you're not going to succeed. The stupidity at play was so overwhelming Shoaib Akhtar could only walk away. That, folks, is the story of competent Pakistanis in a nutshell. @Nilgiri @VCheng @Lonewolf

From outside it seems like everytime political regime changes , a new identity is created , like die hard fans jumping over each other to prove themselves best fanboys in each arena of society , whitewashing all incompetence , using methods like mocking neighbours , tampering with facts etc .


When the next regime comes ,the previous ones as terrorist and corrupt .

Thus by each cycle , corruption actually increase

 

[Saithan]

*sigh* It's what Turkey has been turned into the past 10 years.

The only solution is having the smart people come on tv programs and tell the people of the situation, create an awareness and put it into words. They will probably end up getting killed for creating and formulating that awareness.

This goes for all countries with horrible leadership.

 

[Lonewolf]

*sigh* It's what Turkey has been turned into the past 10 years.

The only solution is having the smart people come on tv programs and tell the people of the situation, create an awareness and put it into words. They will probably end up getting killed for creating and formulating that awareness.

This goes for all countries with horrible leadership.

One common observation in case of all islamic nations , corrupt regime use religion as coverup for all f*ckup , isn't it worrying for u guys , as it will not only reduce your economic situation but also worsen social order and hate for religion will increase , which if create riots will further effect economy .

@Bilal Khan(Quwa) isn't same thing happening in case of TLP right now

 

[Bilal Khan(Quwa)]

One common observation in case of all islamic nations , corrupt regime use religion as coverup for all f*ckup , isn't it worrying for u guys , as it will not only reduce your economic situation but also worsen social order and hate for religion will increase , which if create riots will further effect economy .

@Bilal Khan(Quwa) isn't same thing happening in case of TLP right now

The issue with Pakistan is far simpler. Think of every institution, group, or even religious entity, and then remove the best people. That's the problem. Even in the West, you'll find hardworking Pakistanis across the spectrum. I'm actually religious myself. Yet, if I go to Pakistan and talk based on religion, I'll disappear. If I do it and talk as a sincere journalist, I'll disappear. If I do it as a sincere secular person, I'll disappear. If I do it as a sincere Christian or Hindu, I'll get lynched.

It's the same issue within the political class and armed forces. My father could have just sat around, shut up and rose to Air Commodore, but instead, he (along with a dozen others) had raised their views about structural injustice, and the result was they all prematurely retired (surrendering all of their perks) and left to the Gulf or West. Those individuals later went on to work for Boeing, LM, Texas Instruments, Microsoft, Ford Motors, or the MoDs of the UAE, Qatar, and Kuwait.

TLP is the byproduct. If you're left with the worst religious guys, you'll get TLPs. Likewise, if you're left with the worst secular guys, you'll get PPP and PML. Truth is, if you retained the high-caliber Pakistanis, the differences will remain, but it would never resort to violence and chaos. Ultimately, the corrupt (full stop) need to go, it's as simple as that. Unfortunately, removing them would require tough, very tough, decisions. Frankly, I don't have the stomach for it personally.

 

[Nilgiri]

This. Shoaib Akhtar went through the exact experience of every competent Pakistani. What you see here is what happens in our institutions, armed forces, academia, political parties, and so on. If this is how you treat the subject matter experts, then, of course, you're not going to succeed. The stupidity at play was so overwhelming Shoaib Akhtar could only walk away. That, folks, is the story of competent Pakistanis in a nutshell. @Nilgiri @VCheng @Lonewolf

Pity to see Shoaib treated like that....I remember that era of cricket (he was part of at his prime) quite fondly.
I distinctly remember rushing home from school, switching the telly on (or joining dad) and watching if sachin could handle shoaib on that day hehe....days like the 99 and 03 world cups iirc.

Pakistan was already spoiled for choice (in bowling) with folks like Akram and Younis. Some great cricketing memories for me all around.

===========================

Adding to what you already said:

Growing trust in a system is the hardest + time consuming thing to do....but it is worth it in the end.

Everyone wants a fair shake intrinsically and expect what they put in to a system, they will get out the same amount or more.

That is how trust is cultivated long term till it becomes 2nd nature. Accepting everyone as they are and getting on with true nation building (its really matter of bonds of trust in the end....forged and conveyed from one generation to next one).

Countries succeed at this to varying degrees for varying reasons.

If you do not have sufficient development of this more intangible (but extremely FELT) factor in society....you will see this corrupted individualism take root to fill the void. I say that as a proponent of individualism in many ways (but on the matter of rights and opportunity).....it can also take on an abused form if you let it.

Where people like this other fella feel over-protective and undermined by someone knowing lot more/ doing lot more/ proven about something.

They just ape all that they have seen earlier in the system at large...so all that is bad entrenches even more with time.

i.e Non-trust, untruth, immorality, irrationality and all of that as it weighs and transmits in various imperfect souls.

Competence becomes a threat to their position and status....and when it makes itself known anyway....the predictable abuse in whatever silly-walk format follows shortly.

Competence needs a larger system of trust to flourish otherwise its squandered in the toxic zero sum mentality of protecting every last thing you have in some entitled yet survivalist fashion each time.

Society being confident in its skin for many decades (even centuries) really is something taken for granted in more matured places.....it is not easy to genuinely develop at all.

 

[Nilgiri]

Back to business as usual....3 billion is like 3 tail-enders (picked by saudi cricket board, not PCB) to send out after wickets fell and see how they do...

SBP pumped $1.2 billion to defend rupee: WB | The Express Tribune

Says move comes after 8.1% depreciation against the dollar since June

tribune.com.pk

The team captain's recent musings were pointed out to me by @VCheng recently:

Rupee fall benefits expats’ families: Baqir

SBP governor’s comment termed ‘most irresponsible’.

www.dawn.com

Errmmmm....ok.

It is one of earlier convo on topic of competence being squelched in bottom layers....and incompetents pushed to top.

Takes a whole new dimension in Pakistan.

CPEC will fix it all! Just you wait and see.

 

[Bilal Khan(Quwa)]

Back to business as usual....3 billion is like 3 tail-enders (picked by saudi cricket board, not PCB) to send out after wickets fell and see how they do...

SBP pumped $1.2 billion to defend rupee: WB | The Express Tribune

Says move comes after 8.1% depreciation against the dollar since June

tribune.com.pk

The team captain's recent musings were pointed out to me by @VCheng recently:

Rupee fall benefits expats’ families: Baqir

SBP governor’s comment termed ‘most irresponsible’.

www.dawn.com

Errmmmm....ok.

It is one of earlier convo on topic of competence being squelched in bottom layers....and incompetents pushed to top.

Takes a whole new dimension in Pakistan.

CPEC will fix it all! Just you wait and see.

I remember co-authoring an internal think-tank paper with a couple of Pakistani economists 12 years back arguing how to solve the account deficit issues. Simply put, we had advocated for a market protection program that forces outside brands to manufacture domestically.

So, for example, if you're Toyota and want to sell cars and trucks in Pakistan, you need to source 51% of the car's value domestically. We know that some companies go 70-90% value sourcing in India, but we kept ours super flexible at 51%. You'd be surprised to know that even stupid things like interior trim and seating materials were being imported into Pakistan!

The rationale was that Pakistani cars service the local market without torpedoing our hard currency and, potentially, produce hard-currency gains by exporting cars to Central Asia. We then asked for combining this with a concerted investment in education and skill-building (without taking a dime from defence).

We laid out how to get the revenue for it. The idea was that sustained investment in education and snowballing market protection would result in an industry that can one day absorb more complex production work. Granted, it wasn't a tier-one economic policy paper. After all, you're talking about three 20-21-year olds who are just trying to complete their graduate degrees. But I swear to this day, the research, data analysis and other inputs of that paper is more thorough than the papers the Pakistani gov't and armed forces are making today. I will bet that this paper uses the term "regression analysis" more than an entire year's worth of GOP economy papers.

 

[Lonewolf]

I remember co-authoring an internal think-tank paper with a couple of Pakistani economists 12 years back arguing how to solve the account deficit issues. Simply put, we had advocated for a market protection program that forces outside brands to manufacture domestically.

So, for example, if you're Toyota and want to sell cars and trucks in Pakistan, you need to source 51% of the car's value domestically. We know that some companies go 70-90% value sourcing in India, but we kept ours super flexible at 51%. You'd be surprised to know that even stupid things like interior trim and seating materials were being imported into Pakistan!

The rationale was that Pakistani cars service the local market without torpedoing our hard currency and, potentially, produce hard-currency gains by exporting cars to Central Asia. We then asked for combining this with a concerted investment in education and skill-building (without taking a dime from defence).

We laid out how to get the revenue for it. The idea was that sustained investment in education and snowballing market protection would result in an industry that can one day absorb more complex production work. Granted, it wasn't a tier-one economic policy paper. After all, you're talking about three 20-21-year olds who are just trying to complete their graduate degrees. But I swear to this day, the research, data analysis and other inputs of that paper is more thorough than the papers the Pakistani gov't and armed forces are making today. I will bet that this paper uses the term "regression analysis" more than an entire year's worth of GOP economy papers.

Well isn't defence spending one of your major budget eater ,some independent think tanks said that your defence budget is understated , and pensions etc kept out to make it look small .

And defence spending if done in indigenous development and production can be really helpful .