Pakistan-India Conflict (2025)

[Nilgiri]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1921851243305017718

Just compiling here. Not sure if true or not.

From highly regarded OSINT fellow, TIFWIW:

 

[Nilgiri]

We just want to see proof of even 1% of this being done in reverse to India after all the "Indian AFBs destroyed, S400 destroyed" official claims....and then the "oh we have to wait for other people's space programs to give us sat intel...trust me bro, wait!" and then...a deflating sound at end.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1921933390443421811

 

[Nilgiri]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1921963306694123934

 

[Rajendra Chola]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1921963306694123934

Pakistanis in PDF are taking celebratory lap like Shahid Afridi.

 

[Nilgiri]

Some claims of recent strikes appear to have been exaggerated

Today we're looking at more satellite imagery from recent strikes between India and Pakistan. India showed that some claims of damage to airfields was doctored pictures and recent imagery shows no effect from the recent waves of strikes. While the ceasefire holds for now, the two sides continue to exchange threats.

 

[Zapper]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1921603692567867785

That's an Atar-9 Engine used in PAF’s Mirage III/V found among the debris

 

[Zapper]

https://www.nation.com.pk/29-Dec-20...efficiency-competition-parade-held-at-karachi

 

[Sanchez]

View attachment 75068

View attachment 75069

https://www.nation.com.pk/29-Dec-20...efficiency-competition-parade-held-at-karachi

I don't get it.

 

[Zapper]

Imagery released by a Chinese firm suggests damage at a structure within India's Adampur Airbase - a site targeted by Pakistan, however when cross-referenced with older imagery the damage predates current incidents & is visible in March 2025 as well

Damien Symon

 

[Zapper]

A doctored, manipulated image of Jammu Airport is being circulated to falsely imply damage on site, however recent visuals confirm no such destruction, infact, the tampered image predates May 09–10, 2025

 

[Nilgiri]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1921792394510381272

 

[Zapper]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1921509299680883074

Ignorance at it's peak if anyone actually believes PAF didn't use their F-16s'

and this was the original article from NYT where this statement was said by a pakistani official

Reluctant at First, Trump Officials Intervened in South Asia as Nuclear Fears Grew​

After Vice President JD Vance suggested that the conflict between India and Pakistan was not America’s problem, the Trump administration grew concerned that it could spiral out of control.

Students created portraits of Prime Minister Narendra Modi and President Trump to celebrate the cease-fire.Credit...Rajanish Kakade/Associated Press

By David E. SangerJulian E. Barnes and Maggie Haberman

David E. Sanger and Julian E. Barnes reported from Washington, and Maggie Haberman from New York.
May 10, 2025

As a conflict between India and Pakistan escalated, Vice President JD Vance told Fox News on Thursday that it was “fundamentally none of our business.” The United States could counsel both sides to back away, he suggested, but this was not America’s fight.

Yet within 24 hours, Mr. Vance and Marco Rubio, in his first week in the dual role of national security adviser and secretary of state, found themselves plunged into the details. The reason was the same one that prompted Bill Clinton in 1999 to deal with another major conflict between the two longtime enemies: fear that it might quickly go nuclear.

What drove Mr. Vance and Mr. Rubio into action was evidence that the Pakistani and Indian Air Forces had begun to engage in serious dogfights, and that Pakistan had sent 300 to 400 drones into Indian territory to probe its air defenses. But the most significant causes for concern came late Friday, when explosions hit the Nur Khan air base in Rawalpindi, Pakistan, the garrison city adjacent to Islamabad.

The base is a key installation, one of the central transport hubs for Pakistan’s military and the home to the air refueling capability that would keep Pakistani fighters aloft. But it is also just a short distance from the headquarters of Pakistan’s Strategic Plans Division, which oversees and protects the country’s nuclear arsenal, now believed to include about 170 or more warheads. The warheads themselves are presumed to be spread around the country.

The intense fighting broke out between India and Pakistan after 26 people, mostly Hindu tourists, were killed in a terrorist attack on April 22 in Kashmir, a border region claimed by both nations. On Saturday morning, President Trump announced that the two countries had agreed to a cease-fire.

One former American official long familiar with Pakistan’s nuclear program noted on Saturday that Pakistan’s deepest fear is of its nuclear command authority being decapitated. The missile strike on Nur Khan could have been interpreted, the former official said, as a warning that India could do just that.

It is unclear whether there was American intelligence pointing to a rapid, and perhaps nuclear, escalation of the conflict. At least in public, the only piece of obvious nuclear signaling came from Pakistan. Local media reported that Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif had summoned a meeting of the National Command Authority — the small group that makes decisions about how and when to make use of nuclear weapons.
Image

People watch a television in a restaurant as Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif of Pakistan addressed the nation.Credit...Aamir Qureshi/Agence France-Presse — Getty Images
Established in 2000, the body is nominally chaired by the prime minister and includes senior civilian ministers and military chiefs. In reality, the driving force behind the group is the army chief, Gen. Syed Asim Munir.

But Pakistan’s defense minister, Khawaja Muhammad Asif, denied that the group ever met. Speaking on Pakistani television on Saturday before the cease-fire was announced, he acknowledged the existence of the nuclear option but said, “We should treat it as a very distant possibility; we shouldn’t even discuss it.”

It was being discussed at the Pentagon, and by Friday morning, the White House had clearly made the determination that a few public statements and some calls to officials in Islamabad and Delhi were not sufficient. Interventions by Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates had little effect.

During his interview with Fox News, Mr. Vance had also said that “we’re concerned about any time nuclear powers collide and have a major conflict.” He added that “what we can do is encourage these folks to deescalate a little bit.”

According to one person familiar with the unfolding events who was not authorized to speak publicly about them, serious concerns developed in the administration after that interview that the conflict was at risk of spiraling out of control.


The pace of strikes and counterstrikes was picking up. While India had initially focused on what it called “known terror camps” linked to Lashkar-e-Taiba, a militant group blamed for the April attack, it was now targeting Pakistani military bases.

The Trump administration was also concerned that messages to de-escalate were not reaching top officials on either side.

So U.S. officials decided that Mr. Vance, who had returned a couple weeks earlier from a trip to India with his wife, Usha, whose parents are Indian immigrants, should call Prime Minister Narendra Modi directly. His message was that the United States had assessed there was a high probability of a dramatic escalation of violence that could tip into full-scale war.

By the American account, Mr. Vance pressed Mr. Modi to consider alternatives to continued strikes, including a potential off-ramp that U.S. officials thought would prove acceptable to the Pakistanis. Mr. Modi listened but did not commit to any of the ideas.

Mr. Rubio, according to the State Department, talked with General Munir, a conversation made easier by his new role as national security adviser. Over the past quarter-century, the White House has often served, if quietly, as a direct channel to the Pakistani army, the country’s most powerful institution.

Mr. Rubio also called Pakistan’s foreign minister, Ishaq Dar, and India’s nationalistic external affairs minister, S. Jaishankar, whom he had met on Jan. 22 in Washington.

It is not clear how persuasive he was, at least initially.
Image

Indian police personnel inspected the debris of an unidentified projectile on the outskirts of Jalandhar on Saturday.Credit...Shammi Mehra/Agence France-Presse — Getty Images
The State Department did not hold a press briefing on Saturday about the content of those calls, instead issuing bare-bones descriptions of the conversations that gave no sense of the dynamic between Mr. Rubio and the South Asian leaders. But the constant stream of calls from Friday evening into early Saturday appeared to lay a foundation for the cease-fire.

A senior Pakistani intelligence official who was not authorized to comment publicly about the negotiations credited the involvement of the Americans over the last 48 hours, and in particular Mr. Rubio’s intervention, for sealing the accord. But as of Saturday night, there were reports that cross-border firing was continuing.

Mr. Sharif, the prime minister, made a point of focusing on the American president’s role. “We thank President Trump for his leadership and proactive role for peace in the region,” he wrote on X. “Pakistan appreciates the United States for facilitating this outcome, which we have accepted in the interest of regional peace and stability.”

India, in contrast, did not acknowledge any U.S. involvement.

It is far from clear that the cease-fire will hold, or that the damage done may not trigger more retribution. Pakistan brought down five Indian planes, by some Pakistani accounts. (The Indian side has not commented on its losses.)

Pakistani intelligence, the senior official said, assessed that India was trying to bait Islamabad into going beyond a defensive response. India wanted Pakistan to use its own F-16 fighter jets in a retaliatory attack so they could try to shoot one down, the official said. The jets were sold by the United States because Pakistan is still officially considered a “major non-NATO ally,” a status President George W. Bush bestowed on the country in the months after the Sept. 11 attacks.

The senior Pakistani intelligence officer said the American intervention was needed to pull the two sides back from the brink of war.

“The last move came from the president,” the official said

https://www.nytimes.com/2025/05/10/us/politics/trump-india-pakistan-nuclear.html

 

[Zapper]

India hit this assuming it was a regular weapons storage facility

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1922021540683518149

 

[Zapper]

Interesting to see a pro-pak/turkish account post this

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1920967526550294812

 

[Costin1984]

Surely India could show off all of its Rafales lined up like ducklings In a row if noon was shot down.

 

[TR_123456]

Surely India could show off all of its Rafales lined up like ducklings In a row if noon was shot down.

Governments/people in that part of the world(all countries) are insecure and have inferiority complexes.
If we lose soldiers,fighter jets ships or whatever we just acknowledge it and move on but they feel inferior if they lose equipment/soldiers etc.
There is nothing to do about it.
Lets just wait for @Nilgiri and @Afif to finish their research,then we'll know what really happened.

 

[Costin1984]

Governments/people in that part of the world(all countries) are insecure and have inferiority complexes.
If we lose soldiers,fighter jets ships or whatever we just acknowledge it and move on but they feel inferior if they lose equipment/soldiers etc.
There is nothing to do about it.
Lets just wait for @Nilgiri and @Afif to finish their research,then we'll know what really happened.

It pains me to say it ,but I'm sure that some Rafales were lost,they would have come out with proof if this wasn't the case.
Hopefully, they've learned something after this.

 

[Nilgiri]

Governments/people in that part of the world(all countries) are insecure and have inferiority complexes.
If we lose soldiers,fighter jets ships or whatever we just acknowledge it and move on but they feel inferior if they lose equipment/soldiers etc.
There is nothing to do about it.
Lets just wait for @Nilgiri and @Afif to finish their research,then we'll know what really happened.

It is important to realise that India has not denied it took losses in the air.

The conflict window will have to wrap up and debrief given to degree its done.

This is the strategy India has long followed....ever since all kind of huff and puff done in various media (international or local) after operation searchlight in 1971 in East Pakistan.

i.e I read pretty much every single NYT article during those 9 months after march and then the 1 year after december too.

As to when the debrief is done and what can be gleamed objectively....and just how much NYT got wrong in the end (as to use as some golden standard of its time back then.....now its much worse today).

We understand smaller "edgier" countries need to live more on the transient fumes "of current moment" lot more.

But large countries like India and China follow a very non-Israeli/non-western approach to letting the conflict window end first.

Then people can say these countries have objectively lied with x,y, z denial etc (like say the very different accounts of what PRC losses versus Vietnam in 79 and PRC losses versus USSR in 69 etc).....but only then.

It is not done in interim and short term window.

It is unfortunate that Indian media is copy pasting in catch up way with western media hoohah BS....along with own sentimentality BS in its context.

 

[TR_123456]

It is important to realise that India has not denied it took losses in the air.

The conflict window will have to wrap up and debrief given to degree its done.

This is the strategy India has long followed....ever since all kind of huff and puff done in various media (international or local) after operation searchlight in 1971 in East Pakistan.

i.e I read pretty much every single NYT article during those 9 months after march and then the 1 year after december too.

As to when the debrief is done and what can be gleamed objectively....and just how much NYT got wrong in the end (as to use as some golden standard of its time back then.....now its much worse today).

We understand smaller "edgier" countries need to live more on the transient fumes "of current moment" lot more.

But large countries like India and China follow a very non-Israeli/non-western approach to letting the conflict window end first.

Then people can say these countries have objectively lied with x,y, z denial etc (like say the very different accounts of what PRC losses versus Vietnam in 79 and PRC losses versus USSR in 69 etc).....but only then.

It is not done in interim and short term window.

It is unfortunate that Indian media is copy pasting in catch up way with western media hoohah BS....along with own sentimentality BS in its context.

NYT as in New York Times?
I dont trust anything coming from that news paper/site.
I'll wait for you guys(you and @Afif ) to tell us what really happened on both sides.

 

[Costin1984]

It is important to realise that India has not denied it took losses in the air.

The conflict window will have to wrap up and debrief given to degree its done.

This is the strategy India has long followed....ever since all kind of huff and puff done in various media (international or local) after operation searchlight in 1971 in East Pakistan.

i.e I read pretty much every single NYT article during those 9 months after march and then the 1 year after december too.

As to when the debrief is done and what can be gleamed objectively....and just how much NYT got wrong in the end (as to use as some golden standard of its time back then.....now its much worse today).

We understand smaller "edgier" countries need to live more on the transient fumes "of current moment" lot more.

But large countries like India and China follow a very non-Israeli/non-western approach to letting the conflict window end first.

Then people can say these countries have objectively lied with x,y, z denial etc (like say the very different accounts of what PRC losses versus Vietnam in 79 and PRC losses versus USSR in 69 etc).....but only then.

It is not done in interim and short term window.

It is unfortunate that Indian media is copy pasting in catch up way with western media hoohah BS....along with own sentimentality BS in its context.

I understand that in the grand scheme of things loosing a few fighter jets isn't a big issue for a country like India,but....if your tip of the lance is 36 Rafales and you've lost 1 ,or 2,or 3,against Pakistan armed with Chinese fighter jets( not even China itself)....it matters!
Now ,if this is a loss due to the whole ecosystem (fighter jets,AWACS,EW,pilot skill,satellite support, etc),or just missile,fighter jets capability....this IS the most interesting part to find out.