Analysis PLA Taiwan Scenario questions

beijingwalker

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Taiwan TV street interview: How Taiwanese youth think about "2 years Mandatory Military Service law"

Replies are: It's useless, people will refuse to go to war anyway.
It's waste of time, it's just like a summer camp.
We'll just die if going to a war, there's zero chance we can win a war over mainland China.
Military training won't save our lives, and Taiwan's people are not united.

Question: If Taiwan goes to war with mainland China, would you like to join and fight?
Reply: Certainly not, I'll find a place to hide
We can fight but it's meaningless, we can never win.
No one likes to go to war...
Young people don't want to go to war and don't want to waste such a long time on military service
I won't, I don't want to die. Life is meant for more meaningful things.

In the end of the interview, the host shows the answers for the 5 quesions on board, the most chosen one is: "Come on, stop fooling around, what's the point for this conscription law when no one wants to fight and no one wants to go to war?"
 

Paro

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there should be a multi layered defense, ROC has been testing the Yun Feng long range cruise?? missile that reportedly able to reach Beijing.

the Taiwanese defense planners had already estimate that it needs at least 1200 anti ship missile to defeat an invasion fleet.

there's the hundreds of Hsiung Feng II's and III's which are optimized for to cover the narrow strait, that are road mobile and (some) I believe are placed inside bunkers deep inside Taiwan mountains.

some if these HF II's are reported to have an upgraded version able to hit target as far as 1200Km

and there are orders for a total of 400 new GL Harpoons otw

also part of the deal is the MGM-140 ATACMS quasi ballistic missile with 300KM range, able to hit PLA assembly point. 64 are reportedly ordered.

Taiwan's own air launched cruise missile will join the defense with the domestic Wan Chien ALCM could be used to hit enemy command and control sites, radars, airfields, fuel and food storage. Taiwan air force has an arsenal of over 50+ AGM-88 HARM anti radiation missile, which could be used against ships, consider ships radio emission and the RGM-84 air launched harpoons.

If Taiwan could manage to sink just 1/4th of the initial invasion fleet the chance of success of the PLA troops that will make landfall will exponentially drop. Consider many of Taiwan's beaches that the PLA could use as landfall (west side) site sit right next to built up urban area

View attachment 30734

The PLA will have a hard time advancing against an entrenched enemy. There's no guarantee that the PLA troops that make landfall could be resupplied with Taiwan kept lobbing missiles at transport ships behind them, which will likely carry their food, ammunition etc. The amount of bullets wasted in a urban set up is far higher than that used in an open terrain as Vietnam stats has shown us.


Ammunition consumption is five to ten times greater in urban envi-ronments than in field environments. (See Chapter 7 for more information.)

here's just a glimpse for the readers to comprehend how hard it is to execute an urban warfare.

this is Aleppo, a city in northwestern Syria
15481-khusruwiyah_mosque_and_aleppo%25252520%2525281%252529-20161214075543.jpg



size:190 km2
population: 1.8M

it took the SAA a brutal 4 years stalemate, in a house to house fighting, whilst having an army of (basically) angry civilians turned rebels.
mind to tell readers that the SAA had complete aerial supremacy over the rebels during the 4years long fight. an infinite amount of supply of artillery, men and machine. not to mention a relatively safe supply line into the city.

here case study#2
Mosul.jpg


City: Mosul
Size: 180 km2
Population: 2M

it took the might of approximately 100.000 Iraqi men, the non-stop 24/7 US+Allies aerial and artillery bombardment, tons of supply and above all an open supply line all the way from Baghdad to Mosul. it took the coalition 9 months+ to capture the entire city as well as it's surroundings.


now here's Taipei.
5cddaee0021b4c06d6337b93.jpg



Size: 1,140 km2
population: 2,646,204

both China and Taiwan knows that PLA only have like twice a year to do an amphibious landing in Taiwan?? otherwise the weather and current will not allow to do so.

not to mention you could only do that in some beachhead which is situated in the western flank of the island.
The Taiwanese would have ample time and preparations to detect and locate PLA massing point on the other side of the strait, the US will likely provide them with this. by that time they would have time to position it's missiles and long range artillery to basically turn your massing point into oblivion.

even if let's say the PLA manage to miraculously have enough transport ship to transport their troops, the PLA would still have to face losses from Taiwanese anti-ship missiles.
The Taiwan strait is like 180km wide, in peacetime you'll need hours to cross the strait, in wartime it'll took longer consider that you'd have to slow down to avoid minefields, etc. If you manage to land what's left of your troops in Taiwan beaches, you'll have to fight Taiwanese men in those beaches, which not even in the best of situation will take a day.

After you secured the beachhead, you'll somewhat have to do with your limited men on the island to face and subdue the entirety of the island as well as it's cities, where ROC troops are waiting in ambush. Urban warfare and mountainous terrain as I have pointed above greatly benefited the defender. China will have to devote a significant resources just trying to defend their lifeline (transport ships carrying war materials) all the while Taiwan kept targeting them from the continuous lobbing of missiles.

the situation that Taiwanese military faces in regard to the PLA is not as dire of that the Syrian rebels and ISIS against the SAA and coalition.


that city (Taipei) is just one you would have to conquer, there's a lot of mega urban settlement in Taiwan, like Taichung.

The odds that the PLA men will have to face is just simply ginormous. we're not even talking about if the US and Japan decide to intervene.
@Nilgiri

In October 2020 japan asked US Taiwan to share their operational plan and Intelligence on the Chinese invasion of Taiwan. The United States denied but the three countries decided to work on an alternate doctrine to prepare for an eventuality. Knowledgeable take on the issue is there is some tight Intelligence on a pandora's box shared between Taiwan and the US that they don't want to reveal to even their closest allies.

Since then the three countries have started sharing Intelligence and military excercises. Also, there is a high chance Five Eyes membership might expand in the next 2 years.

 

beijingwalker

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@Nilgiri

In October 2020 japan asked US Taiwan to share their operational plan and Intelligence on the Chinese invasion of Taiwan. The United States denied but the three countries decided to work on an alternate doctrine to prepare for an eventuality. Knowledgeable take on the issue is there is some tight Intelligence on a pandora's box shared between Taiwan and the US that they don't want to reveal to even their closest allies.

Since then the three countries have started sharing Intelligence and military excercises. Also, there is a high chance Five Eyes membership might expand in the next 2 years.

You will see, US bluffs a lot but still keeps buying Chinese products at record high, China is the only country which can keep US morbid economy afloat, fighting a war with China amount to US suicide. without US, all US lapdogs will scatter and run.
 

AlphaMike

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@Nilgiri

In October 2020 japan asked US Taiwan to share their operational plan and Intelligence on the Chinese invasion of Taiwan. The United States denied but the three countries decided to work on an alternate doctrine to prepare for an eventuality. Knowledgeable take on the issue is there is some tight Intelligence on a pandora's box shared between Taiwan and the US that they don't want to reveal to even their closest allies.

Since then the three countries have started sharing Intelligence and military excercises. Also, there is a high chance Five Eyes membership might expand in the next 2 years.

If this is true, this could complicate PLA endeavor in Taiwan.

Remember that Chinese media story on Taiwan invasion scenario not so long time ago?

They mention the invasion will started by a huge missile barrage targeting Taiwan defense in the island?

If Taiwan has early warning in the form of US+5 eyes intelligence of such attack, it will better prepared the island defender to start deploying decoys, disperse their troops and equipment, launch CAP etc.

China's missile might be accurate, but they need superior intelligence on the whereabouts of Taiwan missiles, troops concentration etc. All which need years to compile and would be rendered outdated when Taiwan decided to disperse those assets.
 

WidjojoNitisastro295

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Screenshot_20210914-095402_YouTube.jpg
A peek from Taiwanese politician of possible shelters in the city (Taipei likely).

 
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beijingwalker

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As long as Taiwan doesn't declare independence and foreign troops don't station in Taiwan, there'll be no war. PRC and ROC's economies are inseparably intertwined, espeically on Taiwan's part.
 

WidjojoNitisastro295

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PRC and ROC's economies are inseparably intertwined, espeically on Taiwan's part.
Global semiconductor supply will be fucked up too, bad for anyone in this world. Scarcity of semiconductor chip means skyrocketing prices of anything, because chips are needed for everything now.

That's why Taiwan is not just an island in Asia Pacific region.
 

beijingwalker

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Global semiconductor supply will be fucked up too, bad for anyone in this world. Scarcity of semiconductor chip means skyrocketing prices of anything, because chips are needed for everything now.

That's why Taiwan is not just an island in Asia Pacific region.
That's why I say it's only rhetorics, it's what US tries to put whatever heat on China, part of their containment game.
 

WidjojoNitisastro295

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That's why I say it's only rhetorics, it's what US tries to put whatever heat on China, part of their containment game.
Your government are the one that aggressive in this case. Just stay cool and enjoy the day, your economy will be great, why have to create such tensions that we see now?
 

beijingwalker

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Your government are the one that aggressive in this case. Just stay cool and enjoy the day, your economy will be great, why have to create such tensions that we see now?
China hasn't changed her position on border issues for 70 years and hasn't fired a single shot in 40 years, why this long quiet issue suddenly flares up in recent years? It's US trying to stir up trouble in this region.
 

WidjojoNitisastro295

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China hasn't changed her position on border issues for 70 years and hasn't fired a single shot in 40 years, why this long quiet issue suddenly flares up in recent years? It's US trying to stir up trouble in this region.
The establishment already enough to fulfill countries and people needs and that have to be protected. Imagine there is no strongmen protecting the establishment, you will take SCS and anything that you want.

That's why US and other countries that has balls needs to making donuts with their ships in SCS to show you that this sea is international water. Same as Taiwan, "you will fucked up the world if you doing your ambition about Taiwan".
 
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beijingwalker

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That's why US and other countries that has balls needs to making donuts with their ships in SCS to show you that this sea is international water. Same as Taiwan, "you will fucked up the world if you doing your ambition about Taiwan".
Xi said it himself that Chinese don't fight Chinese, as long as Taiwan doesn't change its name and foreign troops don't intervene, there will be no war.
 
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