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Paro

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If India is supporting Russia , then such supports also comes with negotiation . Hope you remember in Dec 2021 , Putin came to India for just 6 hours , what you think he has discussed in 6 hours
Something everyone missed you hit the nail.


And also the timing India canceled the drone deal. It waited until the day before to do so. And the drone deal just wasnt the drones, it included comms equipment very essential if quad navies had to operate in sync.

There was meeting in which Russia and India agreed to something in the background, obviously India was promised something worthwhile in return for its silence and risking newfound quad.
 
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Nilgiri

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Most of you guys rebuffed me when I told you that India won't be spared from CAATSA...with the ongoing Russian invasion of Ukraine, the US government is going to be even tougher on India.

Nope. There will be no "toughness" from US on India.....especially before they get tough on Germany and EU for financing Russia to this large degree over the last 30 years first....and whatever they have done themselves.

To make ACTUAL deployed amends on that for the next 30 years or however long to push Russia back into its 90s square one status.

Then to do the same to PRC by same logic for whats in the backlog there: HK and Uighurs (forget Tibet for now even).


Germany is literally bankrolling this invasion as we speak (buying nord stream et al original gas)....10's of billions of dollars to russia.....and giving 5000 helmets to ukraine (and that too indirectly by poland).

This will be made amply clear to them (US) if they do not already understand it....there will be no tolerance of selective unfairness.

Fix own house and those close to yours before you look at much further away ones.

This will all come to bear later if need be when CAATSA profile is negotiated again.....since we are definitely not in any collective security arrangement with US, nor had something of scale invested into like the F-35 program..... and we hold them at arms length on many matters of leverage from past experience memory.

US very well knows this....it is why they were making a "CAATSA" waiver push in bipartisan way in their congress for India in first place. The contours of that might possibly change now....but it will not be made to be any infliction or sanction. Lets get that straight.
 

Rajendra Chola

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The 3 billion also had centrixs communication equipment for Indian navy front-line ships. It was kind of hidden inside the sealed deal. It was very important to coordinate with the quad navy.

I don't know if such under the accounts deal could.be done with US which has pretty good oversight on over the deal commercial deals.
 

OverTheHorizon

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Most of you guys rebuffed me when I told you that India won't be spared from CAATSA...with the ongoing Russian invasion of Ukraine, the US government is going to be even tougher on India.
I think the US realizes that the dynamics of India-Russia and India-US are very complicated and has a lot of historical baggage. The reality is the world is such that none of these three countries can corner the other one anymore. Throw China into the mix and things get even more complicated. Look at the game of thrones plays here:
- India needs the US and the west/allies to counter China, though India-China trade seems to be only partially affected. Frankly, India is heavily dependent on the US and EU for its manufacturing and software exports ,and overall economic growth.
- Russia needs India (and China) to withstand the sanctions onslaught, especially in trade and energy. We will be back to trade with India in rupees and China in Yuan to work around the sanctions.
- The US and allies need India to be a reliable defense partner so they can police the Indian Ocean better, and especially muzzle into India's lucrative position at the Malacca straits. The US also needs India to buy a ton of its energy production. India has now become one of the largest importers of US energy supplies.
Plus one only has to look at the number of US Defense companies setting up shop in India directly like Boeing India ETC, Sikorski India or through major JVs (Tata-LockheedMartin, Tata-Boeing etc.) that CAATSA is not going to be applied on India. The US will not look at India through the prism of India-Russia ties unless Russia does something extremely dangerous - like what Hitler did with his territorial ambitions. Russia is not there yet. Despite all the noise, the Russians still have limited objectives in the Ukraine. As long as the US and the West are confident that they can bring Russia to its knees through long term sanctions, for which they need India's help - because India can turn around and just import Russian eneregy in bulk to offset any losses as Indian companies generate large amounts of oil and gas in Russian Fareast and other regions. Remember India also has red lines just like China or Russia has. Indians do not go around advertising these red lines but I am sure they are being communicated in diplomatic meetings in a polite way.
Right now, the US and its western allies does not need Indian help to economically cripple Russia but do need India's help to become a bulwark against China. Given this balancing act, the CAATSA card is unlikely to be played.
Turkey is a different ball game. It has no leverage in global affairs like India has. And the US does not need Turkey for pretty much anything. So the costs for the US in imposing the CAATSA on Turkey is next to nothing. But the costs for the US in imposing CAATSA against India are massive. That is the difference.
 

Gessler

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Nope. There will be no "toughness" from US on India.....especially before they get tough on Germany and EU for financing Russia to this large degree over the last 30 years first....and whatever they have done themselves.

To make ACTUAL deployed amends on that for the next 30 years or however long to push Russia back into its 90s square one status.

Then to do the same to PRC by same logic for whats in the backlog there: HK and Uighurs (forget Tibet for now even).


Germany is literally bankrolling this invasion as we speak (buying nord stream et al original gas)....10's of billions of dollars to russia.....and giving 5000 helmets to ukraine (and that too indirectly by poland).

This will be made amply clear to them (US) if they do not already understand it....there will be no tolerance of selective unfairness.

Fix own house and those close to yours before you look at much further away ones.

This will all come to bear later if need be when CAATSA profile is negotiated again.....since we are definitely not in any collective security arrangement with US, nor had something of scale invested into like the F-35 program..... and we hold them at arms length on many matters of leverage from past experience memory.

US very well knows this....it is why they were making a "CAATSA" waiver push in bipartisan way in their congress for India in first place. The contours of that might possibly change now....but it will not be made to be any infliction or sanction. Lets get that straight.

Most of you guys rebuffed me when I told you that India won't be spared from CAATSA...with the ongoing Russian invasion of Ukraine, the US government is going to be even tougher on India.

What I'm taking away from statements made from official figures so far is that they're being very measured & calculated wrt India. Yes, the immediate crisis is Russia and this will last the next few news cycles, so focus is there right now. But there's no indication that the larger aim of Asia Pivot has changed - as doing so would compromise the US' own security interests...the worst that Russia can do at this point will only compromise Europe.


We'll see how the situation develops but one thing is for clear - India will have some problems when it comes to paying Russia for deals due to the latter's financial isolation. But then again, several creative payment methods were developed between these two parties in the decades since 1971.

As of the Predator/Guardian put on hold...right now I'm looking at two possibilities, in the order listed:

1) Excessive cost - the deal was under negotiation for a long time and the price proved to be a sticking point on previous occasions as well.
2) Hedge against possible sanctions.
 

Nilgiri

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What I'm taking away from statements made from official figures so far is that they're being very measured & calculated wrt India. Yes, the immediate crisis is Russia and this will last the next few news cycles, so focus is there right now. But there's no indication that the larger aim of Asia Pivot has changed - as doing so would compromise the US' own security interests...the worst that Russia can do at this point will only compromise Europe.


We'll see how the situation develops but one thing is for clear - India will have some problems when it comes to paying Russia for deals due to the latter's financial isolation. But then again, several creative payment methods were developed between these two parties in the decades since 1971.

As of the Predator/Guardian put on hold...right now I'm looking at two possibilities, in the order listed:

1) Excessive cost - the deal was under negotiation for a long time and the price proved to be a sticking point on previous occasions as well.
2) Hedge against possible sanctions.

Bro trust me, what the DC swamp fellas say at the slick highest level (5%) is very different to the instruction and operating norms of the inner layers (the 95%) which are always on the look for maximising their leverage....and who do most of the actual policy working groups with other countries.

They are going to get some concessions from India on some stuff, make no mistake.

It is not about the principle of the matter that the 5% blah about....its the 95%'s grind for transactional leverage.

India will negotiate hard on this stuff from their end too.

Russia is not a small entity in the world...this stuff is going to shift some things from the overall 2010 - 2020 decade equilibrium.

It is not cause for alarm though...India won the staring contest on our nuclear weapon capability....for a number of reasons that intersected after 9/11.

There will be an understanding with plenty of hedging via France and Israel again if need be.
 

Gessler

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Latest news:

India-US Deal For 30 Armed Predator Drones At Advanced Stages: Report​

India and the United States have intensified the discussions and increased the number of such drones to be sold to India from 10 to 30 - 10 each for navy, air force and army. These state-of-the-art Predator drones, which have no match currently, are to be manufactured by General Atomics.


Washington: The discussions on the sale of 30 Predator armed drones by the US to India, the first to a non-NATO ally, at an estimated cost of USD 3 billion are at an advanced stage, multiple sources have confirmed.

The major defence deal was announced under the previous Trump administration during the visit of Prime Minister Narendra Modi to the White House in 2017. Thereafter, the two countries have intensified the discussions and increased the number of such drones to be sold to India from 10 to 30 - 10 each for navy, air force and army.

Governmental sources told news agency PTI that the Predator/MQ9B acquisition program of 30 aircraft is at an advanced stage of discussion between the Indian and US governments.

"It is a capability that operationalises the Major Defence Partner status that has been worked on for several years through the various foundational agreements and India's insertion into the MTCR. India will be the first non-NATO partner to receive this capability,"
the sources told news agency PTI.

These state-of-the-art drones, which currently have no match in the defence industry, are to be manufactured by General Atomics.

The sources told Press Trust of India, who spoke on condition of anonymity, denied having any knowledge of the deal being put on the back-burner by India.

While the process has been slow, mainly due to the bureaucracy in the two countries, the Indian armed forces have leased two surveillance Predators from General Atomics. These drones have emerged as a valuable surveillance asset for conducting reconnaissance of India's maritime and land borders with China and Pakistan, the sources said.

They said they have been receiving very good feedback from India in this regard.

According to governmental sources, six years of negotiations between the two governments at the highest levels have taken place. As an exception, the US government had cleared the offering of this armed capability to the first non-NATO ally. The defence procurement board of India's Ministry of Defence had met on this and cleared it late last year.

The next step is receiving a letter of request, another governmental source told PTI.

These drones have the ability to carry out long-range precision air strikes. They will add to India's growing inventory of US-made military equipment that includes attack helicopters, submarine-hunting aircraft and assault rifles.


@Nilgiri

So here's how I'm reading this so far...the news about the hold was sort of a 'pre-emptive feeler' sent out as a hedge against sanctions, to see if situation changes. So far it appears the answer was No.
 

crixus

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Latest news:


India-US Deal For 30 Armed Predator Drones At Advanced Stages: Report​

India and the United States have intensified the discussions and increased the number of such drones to be sold to India from 10 to 30 - 10 each for navy, air force and army. These state-of-the-art Predator drones, which have no match currently, are to be manufactured by General Atomics.


Washington: The discussions on the sale of 30 Predator armed drones by the US to India, the first to a non-NATO ally, at an estimated cost of USD 3 billion are at an advanced stage, multiple sources have confirmed.

The major defence deal was announced under the previous Trump administration during the visit of Prime Minister Narendra Modi to the White House in 2017. Thereafter, the two countries have intensified the discussions and increased the number of such drones to be sold to India from 10 to 30 - 10 each for navy, air force and army.

Governmental sources told news agency PTI that the Predator/MQ9B acquisition program of 30 aircraft is at an advanced stage of discussion between the Indian and US governments.

"It is a capability that operationalises the Major Defence Partner status that has been worked on for several years through the various foundational agreements and India's insertion into the MTCR. India will be the first non-NATO partner to receive this capability,"
the sources told news agency PTI.

These state-of-the-art drones, which currently have no match in the defence industry, are to be manufactured by General Atomics.

The sources told Press Trust of India, who spoke on condition of anonymity, denied having any knowledge of the deal being put on the back-burner by India.

While the process has been slow, mainly due to the bureaucracy in the two countries, the Indian armed forces have leased two surveillance Predators from General Atomics. These drones have emerged as a valuable surveillance asset for conducting reconnaissance of India's maritime and land borders with China and Pakistan, the sources said.

They said they have been receiving very good feedback from India in this regard.

According to governmental sources, six years of negotiations between the two governments at the highest levels have taken place. As an exception, the US government had cleared the offering of this armed capability to the first non-NATO ally. The defence procurement board of India's Ministry of Defence had met on this and cleared it late last year.

The next step is receiving a letter of request, another governmental source told PTI.

These drones have the ability to carry out long-range precision air strikes. They will add to India's growing inventory of US-made military equipment that includes attack helicopters, submarine-hunting aircraft and assault rifles.


@Nilgiri

So here's how I'm reading this so far...the news about the hold was sort of a 'pre-emptive feeler' sent out as a hedge against sanctions, to see if situation changes. So far it appears the answer was No.
Seems like if the deal is still on then , then they are just testing the water and gauging the reaction from US . And babus of MEA in soth block seems to be on calls whole days .

The diplomatic navition through this situation is nothing less then passing through a mine field
 

OverTheHorizon

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I see some likelihoods:
1. Most likely the calling off of Predators narrative was planted in the press by Indian intelligence agencies for whatever reason.
2. Some internal lobby like DRDO wanted to sabotage the deal and deliberately released the story, potentially at the urging of Russians (remember, even though this at first looks far fetched, India's internal organizations have had long strategic and secretive dealings with Russian defense companies for decades and it is quite possible that Russia has Indian defense people on its payroll). The second one is dangerous, as this would be an act of treason and, ideally, those responsible would have to go to jail (and possibly be executed, as in India, the sentence for treason is capital punishment). So, this development is unlikely.
3. The question is has something new happened like Russia or Israel or France decided to share some key drone technologies that the DRDO could not develop for ages and therefore are now more confident that their product even though would be inferior to the Predator would not be that much inferior for the US drones to be paid a $100 million per piece cost. Such quick developments are unlikely as well. ToT deals are negotiated over years and are not something that happens just like that.

To me, Russia is the key player here and possibly have something to do with these leaked stories . Russia has tremendous defense leverage with India, what with S400 and the Philippines Brahmos deals pending, and the long term massive assistance on nuclear, SSN and SSBN technologies. India is the only country Russia has provided its lethal Akula SSNs to. So, Russia has a tremendous incentive now to extract some payment from India when it is facing the wrath of the US and the West. The very thing that the US Government has not received any official communique from India, at least to me, points to the fact that India's intelligence agencies , at Russia's prodding and without the knowledge of the Indian Government, planted these stories. Very interesting development for sure. Will be keenly watching how the Modi government saves face with the US :)
 

Nilgiri

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@HTurk see what I mean?

literally bankrolling this invasion


Any hypocrite lip from anyone in the west..... we go....uh talk to your own WAY bigger mess first....and prove that stuff before any tough guy flexing crap on others.

We pay Russia literal pennies for each dollar West gives and gave to them.

This is using purely just the western argument on this matter to begin with.

They know perfectly well their own rapsheet on larger hypocrisy past it....they will not flex on us, it is not the cold war anymore.
 

Ryder

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I think the US realizes that the dynamics of India-Russia and India-US are very complicated and has a lot of historical baggage. The reality is the world is such that none of these three countries can corner the other one anymore. Throw China into the mix and things get even more complicated. Look at the game of thrones plays here:
- India needs the US and the west/allies to counter China, though India-China trade seems to be only partially affected. Frankly, India is heavily dependent on the US and EU for its manufacturing and software exports ,and overall economic growth.
- Russia needs India (and China) to withstand the sanctions onslaught, especially in trade and energy. We will be back to trade with India in rupees and China in Yuan to work around the sanctions.
- The US and allies need India to be a reliable defense partner so they can police the Indian Ocean better, and especially muzzle into India's lucrative position at the Malacca straits. The US also needs India to buy a ton of its energy production. India has now become one of the largest importers of US energy supplies.
Plus one only has to look at the number of US Defense companies setting up shop in India directly like Boeing India ETC, Sikorski India or through major JVs (Tata-LockheedMartin, Tata-Boeing etc.) that CAATSA is not going to be applied on India. The US will not look at India through the prism of India-Russia ties unless Russia does something extremely dangerous - like what Hitler did with his territorial ambitions. Russia is not there yet. Despite all the noise, the Russians still have limited objectives in the Ukraine. As long as the US and the West are confident that they can bring Russia to its knees through long term sanctions, for which they need India's help - because India can turn around and just import Russian eneregy in bulk to offset any losses as Indian companies generate large amounts of oil and gas in Russian Fareast and other regions. Remember India also has red lines just like China or Russia has. Indians do not go around advertising these red lines but I am sure they are being communicated in diplomatic meetings in a polite way.
Right now, the US and its western allies does not need Indian help to economically cripple Russia but do need India's help to become a bulwark against China. Given this balancing act, the CAATSA card is unlikely to be played.
Turkey is a different ball game. It has no leverage in global affairs like India has. And the US does not need Turkey for pretty much anything. So the costs for the US in imposing the CAATSA on Turkey is next to nothing. But the costs for the US in imposing CAATSA against India are massive. That is the difference.

A BIG LOL

Turkey is a regional power whose clout can be felt in the middle east, balkans, caucasus, north africa and central asia.

Turkey's geopolitical geography make it an important strategic country for both west and east.

We also have a rising defence industry and natos second biggest army.
 

HTurk

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@HTurk see what I mean?




Any hypocrite lip from anyone in the west..... we go....uh talk to your own WAY bigger mess first....and prove that stuff before any tough guy flexing crap on others.

We pay Russia literal pennies for each dollar West gives and gave to them.

This is using purely just the western argument on this matter to begin with.

They know perfectly well their own rapsheet on larger hypocrisy past it....they will not flex on us, it is not the cold war anymore.
Well, you're interpreting the reality your way which I understand but I kindly disagree with your point of view here.

Acquiring Russian military hardware at this point is akin to declaring war on the (white) West. The Europeans will perceive this kind of transaction as a betrayal of the highest order and they most definitely will act accordingly.

Generally speaking, India has neither the means nor the sheer power to withstand Western pressure. It's a country that is pretty much isolated in its proximate neighborhood (just like Turkey) and is heavily dependent on global strategic partnerships.

The threat of cooperation with China on the other hand is totally unrealistic and simply bluffing. One, China will never ditch Pakistan for you. Islamabad is a safe bet for Beijing. Two, it's a country that's physically occupying Indian territory just like Pakistan, according to the official Indian stance. Three, you have a vast and influential diaspora in Western democracies which will prevent you from forming a deep relationship with China on a strategic level.

You're either misjudging the situation or you're not fully aware of how extremely dependent the Europeans are on Russian energy imports.

It's Winter in Europe right now and they simply have no other choice than importing gas from Russia. The reason for the accelerated volume of imported energy is the fear that Russia could cut off the supply at a moment's notice.
 

Nilgiri

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Well, you're interpreting the reality your way which I understand but I kindly disagree with your point of view here.

We can agree to disagree, its no biggie.


Acquiring Russian military hardware at this point is akin to declaring war on the (white) West. The Europeans will perceive this kind of transaction as a betrayal of the highest order and they most definitely will act accordingly.

You are telling me that money that goes to the tsar + boyars suddenly doesn't matter in the end if its non-military in original intent?

Interesting. (you know how finance flows + diversions work in the end?)

The west should surely apply that principle on Iran, North Korea, Cuba, Venezuela (in just recent history) as validation of that concept then?

Why the larger economic sanction on them when its just a "military export/import" angle of it?

Or is it indeed a case of all money is the same green colour in the end (no matter what you are buying) given authoritarian regime ease to turn it into whatever threat capacity?

The West knows this btw (it has illustrated it knows this several times in severe ways...in fact several times with just China alone).

It is why you will get to see what happens for yourself.


Generally speaking, India has neither the means nor the sheer power to withstand Western pressure. It's a country that is pretty much isolated in its proximate neighborhood (just like Turkey) and is heavily dependent on global strategic partnerships.

Yeah they kept telling us that after each nuclear test we did..... ouch we succumbed! :D

Then NASA comes crawling to us years later for c-c-c-c-can we cooperate a bit on rockets and satellites a bit? (On the very technology we delivered for those nukes in the first place)......saying Pretty please!.... :D

You seem to assume this is our first rodeo with the White house cowboys and DC swamp jerks (and all manner of their little poodles in Europe) and any of its "pressure" hypocrisy (that it gets away with lot more with smaller, weaker and esp non-nuclear countries).



Let me tell you the story of one especially nasty genuinely racist US president w.r.t India....since it concerns the lowest point of US - India relations to understand the overall reference the elephant remembers regarding the bald eagle.

This racist literally ignored a telegram from his own consulate in Dhaka (regarding the atrocities and genocide mounting up there)....because he had made up his mind he wanted to maintain a good relationship with the fascist thugs perpetrating it.

He (apparently) couldn't upset the switcheroo he was doing on top of that....throwing Taiwan under the bus at the time. Classy guy I know right?

This racist instead send a full CBG to the bay of bengal to threaten us.....when we were hosting refugees in the millions (with horrific stories to share of what they saw happening that they fled from).

Blood we spilled with our Bong brothers to achieve their liberation....from an ongoing genocide US was now complicit in....because of its degenerate president at the time especially.

This same place that you now give a one line "should be a military powerhouse and its the "brightest future in all of South Asia"....all without a basic understanding of the core numbers....forget the core context.

That president in his case got some form of karma soon after, having to resign his presidency or face impeachment (on a different domestic matter)....his role on the far more disturbing stuff of scale like Bangladesh....underlooked into (again hypocritically and ignorantly).

The point was we ignored his BS, gave him a good middle finger and dealt with his precious little ally alongside the Bangladeshis....and the Bangladeshis have their freedom now beause of it.

A testament to not giving a shit about extreme hypocrisy and degeneracy when it shows up from the West (or anyone else) and simply doing what is right.

Like I said, not our first rodeo (and you assume to think it is and the west doesnt know it itself deep down in the places that matter).

=====================================================

Look I know you and lot of Turks are upset about the US:

a) being in collective security arrangement with you
b) hosting warheads at incirlik
c) yet supports PKK/YPG in whatever way on your south due to the Syria situation

While we (or at least I) wish you the best on dealing with that reality....That is simply not the contours of the reality and pressure they can employ with India.

With the rough equivalents....they tried and they failed and they learned....with a nuclear test swan song to boot.

End of.

They start any of this crap (hypothetically for argument sake)..... we can go all the way back to them employing the services of a Mr. Halder of ostplan fame....even giving him a medal. ...brushing off all the blood he had on his hands.

Even the holocaust doesn't matter enough in the end you see to the lust the DC Swamp has for certain things.

There is TONS more where this comes from.....these are just examples in a larger larger web of it.

You seem to think none of this extreme hypocrisy backlog matters or can be used against the US if they start any sermon on the matter.

When it already has been....multiple times....in the mundane negotiation rooms.

You just need to be big enough and firm enough and know how to handle their talking heads they trot out. Go right to the gut punch where it lasts....they do remember those you see....and slither away and send someone better that knows what they are on about.

Its already been done, you just dont know much about it. That's not on me, thats on you.

The threat of cooperation with China on the other hand is totally unrealistic and simply bluffing. One, China will never ditch Pakistan for you. Islamabad is a safe bet for Beijing. Two, it's a country that's physically occupying Indian territory just like Pakistan, according to the official Indian stance. Three, you have a vast and influential diaspora in Western democracies which will prevent you from forming a deep relationship with China on a strategic level.

I don't understand what you mean here? Who brought up anything regarding a "threat of cooperation with China"?

Yes we will cooperate with China, the Republic of China (Taiwan) that is...... on several things going forward.

The other "China".....we are going through a bad relation phase (that might be quite a while)....so I dunno what you are going on about here.

India has not made any such threat to cooperate with PRC lol....much less any "strategic level".

That is one of the most ridiculous things I have heard all day....and its been quite a lot of it so far let me tell you.



You're either misjudging the situation or you're not fully aware of how extremely dependent the Europeans are on Russian energy imports.

If Europe didnt handle Russia for 30 years regarding this well....that again is on them, not us.

The difference between France and Germany's energy policy should be enough to show a deep cleave in approach. One had much more common sense....the other finds itself reliant on Russia by its own doing.

Not even building a basic LNG port to hedge knowing it would be using much more gas soon as it turned of the BAD BAD BAD nuclear plants (that France absolutely loves having in its case).

The money all goes to the tsar and boyars in the end....to use what they want on the military threat and assets.

Priority and scale.....the West has bankrolled whats going on in Ukraine far far far more magnitudes than we have.

Undoing that damage is for them to demonstrate first (for the next 20 - 30 years) before starting the hypocrite lip with anyone else (much less India).

If they want to flex on anyone past themselves and prove any principle on it, they can also do so in the priority ladder with PRC....given they are no. 2 (so far) on bankrolling to Russia.
 
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The US and UK have committed to coordinate the implementation of their respective Indo-Pacific strategies, with a focus on enhancing ties with India, Downing Street has said.

US-UK.jpg

At "high-level consultations" on the Indo-Pacific held earlier this week, officials from both governments resolved to broaden and deepen their alignment and cooperation on and in the region. The meeting, one of many being undertaken amid the ongoing Russia-Ukraine crisis, also assessed the preparations to meet the "challenge of systemic competition with China".

"In the coming months, the US and the UK will work together to invest in partnerships with the Pacific Islands; to support the centrality of ASEAN [Association of Southeast Asian Nations] and to advance concrete cooperation with ASEAN and its member states; and to enhance ties with India," reads the joint statement from the consultations released on Friday.

"US and UK officials committed to coordinate implementation of the US Indo-Pacific Strategy and the UK's Indo-Pacific tilt, as set out in its Integrated Review... They agreed to pursue positive economic engagement in the Indo-Pacific, including through supporting just green transitions as part of the Clean Green Initiative and Build Back Better World agendas; to collaborate on critical and emerging technologies; to ensure economic security; and to oppose economic coercion," it read.

The US delegation for the talks on Monday and Tuesday was led by Indo-Pacific Coordinator Kurt Campbell and included representatives from the Department of State, Department of Defense, and National Security Council. The UK delegation was led by Deputy National Security Advisor David Quarrey and included representatives from across the British government.

"Officials from both governments resolved to broaden and deepen their alignment and cooperation on and in the region. They welcomed growing coordination among allies and partners across the Atlantic and the Pacific," the joint statement notes. "In particular, they noted unprecedented commitments from Indo-Pacific countries - including Japan, Australia, the Republic of Korea, New Zealand, and Singapore - to support Ukraine and to impose costs on Russia for its brutal and unprovoked attack. They also noted that these steps come at a time when the US, UK and European partners are enhancing their engagement with the Indo-Pacific and preparing to meet the challenge of systemic competition with China," it adds.

Both sides have agreed to inaugurate a "continuing dialogue" on the Indo-Pacific, to be led in the US government by the National Security Council and the Department of State and in the UK by the National Security Secretariat and the Foreign, Commonwealth, and Development Office (FCDO).

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The development comes days after UK Foreign Secretary Liz Truss told the UK Parliament's Foreign Affairs Committee (FAC) that the way forward is for a closer economic and defence relationship with India, to counter India's dependence on Russia.

"I think the issue for India is there is some level of dependence on Russia, both in terms of its defence relationships but also in terms of its economic relationships. And I think the way forward is for a closer economic and defence relationship with India. Both by the United Kingdom and also our like-minded allies," the minister said.

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Rahul Roy-Chaudhury, Senior Fellow for South Asia at the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) in London, believes this marks an "ambitious UK step-change towards India's defence industry". "India's defence sector has been highlighted by the ongoing war in Ukraine, on which there is a significant diplomatic divergence between the UK and India," Roy-Chaudhury said in his address at a State Bank of India (SBI) and Federation of Indian Chambers of Commerce and Industry (FICCI) conclave in London this week.

"India's diplomatic position is largely a result of its strategic dependence on Russia for arms denied to it by the west. Russia is India's dominant, although declining source of arms supplies, accounting for over half of total arms imports," he noted.

According to the strategic expert, there can be no real mutual trust or a true comprehensive strategic partnership between India and the UK without defence industrial cooperation and partnership.

"UK Foreign Secretary Liz Truss' recent statement indicates political intent to work closely with India's defence industries to reduce its dependence on Russia in the wake of the Ukraine war. This comes at a time of prospective strains on Russian arms deliveries to India in the wake of western sanctions. But, it needs UK Plc to deliver amidst challenging circumstances," he noted.


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My Comment: As expected, the American & British policies for the Indo-Pacific are more or less mirror images of each other, indicating a high degree of coordination at the strategic level. The broad consensus across both countries appears to be toward trying to ween India away from dependence on Russian arms imports and not a change or strategic shift away from India's role in the INDOPAC, and certainly not to punish India for its neutral stand on the Ukraine situation. That indicates a high level of understanding regarding India's ties with the Russian state...no doubt a result of better diplomatic communication & strategic coordination.

The stuff like tanks, aircraft & tactical missiles are easy enough to substitute with Western alternatives given the right strategic directives...however, the depth of cooperation with Russian industry goes into realms where international cooperation with a Non-NPT country would be frowned upon - such as nuclear submarine technology sharing & imparting of know-how/know-why. There are very hard limitations with regard to what the West (except France) can offer India in this strategic sphere so that's unlikely to change.

So I believe that at its worst, the cooperation with Russia will 'go underground' - not unlike the relationship between Russia & South Korea and the former's help with the latter's strategic missile programs. As the US/UK know this is not an area where they can readily offer any alternative avenues - but at the same time its a strategically sound decision to allow India to develop a full spectrum of deterrence i.e. SSBNs (and the means of protecting them i.e. SSNs) which in turn will allow them to adopt a stronger anti-China stand - they are likely to turn a blind eye.
 

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An excerpt from Talking Point with Professor Rajan Menon, Director of the Grand Strategy Programme at Defense Priorities, Spitzer Professor of International Relations Emeritus, City College New York, Senior Research Fellow at the Saltzman Institute of War and Peace Studies at Columbia University, Co-author of 'Ukraine in Conflict: The Unwinding of the Post–Cold War Order' and Richard Rossow, Senior Fellow and Wadhwani Chair in U.S.-India Policy Studies at the Centre for Strategic and International Studies in conversation with StratNews Global Associate Editor Amitabh P. Revi.

 

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TOKYO -- Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida is set to announce a plan to invest 5 trillion yen ($42 billion) in India over five years when he visits the country on Saturday, Nikkei has learned.

Kishida is due to reveal the public-private funding during an economic forum. He is expected to pledge growth in direct investment in terms of value, as well as an increase in Japanese companies expanding into India.

Kishida is also poised to agree to an approximately 300 billion yen loan during his meeting with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi. In addition, an energy cooperation document concerning carbon reduction is expected to be signed.

The 5 trillion yen goal tops the 3.5 trillion yen in investment and financing over five years that then-Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe announced during his 2014 visit to India. Tokyo is currently supporting India's urban infrastructure development as well as a high-speed railway based on Japan's shinkansen bullet train technology.

During Saturday's public-private forum, Kishida is also expected to express his support to further infrastructure development in India with the goal of drawing Japanese companies to build factories within the border.

India represents the first leg of Kishida's three-day tour. He is scheduled to arrive in Cambodia on Sunday to meet with Prime Minister Hun Sen.

Japan and India are party to the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue, a security framework known as the Quad that includes the U.S. and Australia. Cambodia serves as this year's chair of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations.

Kishida plans to confirm the strengthening of security arrangements with Russia's invasion of Ukraine in mind.

In 2020, Japan and India signed an acquisition and cross-servicing agreement, which allows for reciprocal provisions of food, fuel and other supplies between the Indian army and Japan's Self-Defense Forces. Kishida and Modi are to reaffirm that they will push that deal forward.

Kishida and Modi are expected to agree to convene a two-plus-two meeting between the two countries diplomatic and defense chiefs at an early date.

In Cambodia, Kishida is due to announce economic cooperation from Japan with the purpose of strengthening relations with ASEAN.

This will be Kishida's first overseas trip as prime minister since he traveled to Great Britain in November.
 

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