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Gessler

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An article was published in the Australian Financial Review (AFR) by Andrew Tillett, following up on the recently-concluded Virtual Summit between the Prime Ministers of India & Australia (which was incidentally right after PM Modi's in-person summit with the Japanese PM Kishida). It talks about an impending 'deployment' of Indian spy planes (journalist-speak for P-8I maritime patrol aircraft) to Australia.


And also this piece preceding it:


ENadT.jpg


As the articles are behind a paywall, I'm only going to reproduce bits & pieces, and often paraphrasing:

"The types of exercises we’ve done with the Indians in the past have been pretty light on, but this would be a step-up in terms of complexity. This is where we were 15 years ago with Japan: fairly uncomplicated maritime surveillance, then it becomes co-ordinating ships and aircraft at sea. Exercises are ladder of complexity and this is the first step being climbed." - Peter Jennings of ASPI

Two examples of the previous exercises Mr. Jennings is alluding to:



AVvXsEjV3Lmwv51qNg-7QjGWwb1SXDJemuv0YdoPs7SluL8VBIQPwBXMmFXypHYawFPoPFp-KIKyokkeDt_k12DjJ0DP5ubhi36Ytyy4Rl2iWVwf92w9ndVlmdIzJ9dEvC7eGjlJja1YYfK6PuOyEeaAcAfSGoFKW1BMjspry7D_9vydxC23mS25T9UeNa4A=w1200-h630-p-k-no-nu

Anti-Submarine Warfare (ASW) Exercise Sea Dragon 2022 - Involving ASW & AAR assets from the US, Canada, India, South Korea, Australia & Japan

And from the second AFR article, this piece:

"After several years of Australia and India stepping up the tempo of joint military exercises, the leaders also announced an Indian maritime patrol aircraft would be deployed to Australia sometime soon as part of strengthening collaboration on maritime issues.

It’s unclear where the aircraft will be based but it is expected that Australian aircraft will also pay a reciprocal visit to India, as the leaders spoke about the need to keep open critical regional maritime corridors..."

The two articles draw a lot from the joint statements issued via official channels, though the joint statement did not actually mention any specifics of an aircraft deployment:


The important part under the 'Defence & Security Cooperation' section goes:

"Leaders underscored the importance of reciprocal access arrangements in facilitating deeper operational defence cooperation and its contribution towards free and open critical regional maritime corridors."

+++++​

I'm not entirely clear regarding the nature of the Indian P-8's visit. Though the line in the second article about it being 'based' as opposed to the reciprocal Australian aircraft's 'visit' is interesting, but I don't know if that is anything substantial to go on. But what I can tell you is that India has been wanting to operate aircraft out of Australia's Cocos Islands (also known as Keeling Islands) for quite some time.


This interest is documented in publications as well...



The 'reciprocal' part may come in with regard to Australia's access to operate from Indian facilities on the Andaman & Nicobar islands, or perhaps even the new ones coming up on the Mauritius' Agalega island being developed for the Indian Navy, which seems tailored for operations of P-8 or other large aircraft:


While I'd wait & see regarding what kind of 'deployment' AFR is talking about (because it could simply be another joint exercise), but as a closing note, I'd say that in addition to building Domain Awareness underwater (such as through 'Fish Hook' SOSUS/IUSS), its also important for QUAD nations to extend that cooperation into Surface, Air & Space domains in order to build & maintain a full spectrum of surveillance & domain-awareness capabilities against PLAN activities in the Indo-Pacific, which would only be growing by leaps & bounds in the coming years & decades.

@Nilgiri @Cabatli_53 @T-123456 @Paro
 

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An article was published in the Australian Financial Review (AFR) by Andrew Tillett, following up on the recently-concluded Virtual Summit between the Prime Ministers of India & Australia (which was incidentally right after PM Modi's in-person summit with the Japanese PM Kishida). It talks about an impending 'deployment' of Indian spy planes (journalist-speak for P-8I maritime patrol aircraft) to Australia.


And also this piece preceding it:


View attachment 41475

As the articles are behind a paywall, I'm only going to reproduce bits & pieces, and often paraphrasing:

"The types of exercises we’ve done with the Indians in the past have been pretty light on, but this would be a step-up in terms of complexity. This is where we were 15 years ago with Japan: fairly uncomplicated maritime surveillance, then it becomes co-ordinating ships and aircraft at sea. Exercises are ladder of complexity and this is the first step being climbed." - Peter Jennings of ASPI

Two examples of the previous exercises Mr. Jennings is alluding to:



AVvXsEjV3Lmwv51qNg-7QjGWwb1SXDJemuv0YdoPs7SluL8VBIQPwBXMmFXypHYawFPoPFp-KIKyokkeDt_k12DjJ0DP5ubhi36Ytyy4Rl2iWVwf92w9ndVlmdIzJ9dEvC7eGjlJja1YYfK6PuOyEeaAcAfSGoFKW1BMjspry7D_9vydxC23mS25T9UeNa4A=w1200-h630-p-k-no-nu

Anti-Submarine Warfare (ASW) Exercise Sea Dragon 2022 - Involving ASW & AAR assets from the US, Canada, India, South Korea, Australia & Japan

And from the second AFR article, this piece:

"After several years of Australia and India stepping up the tempo of joint military exercises, the leaders also announced an Indian maritime patrol aircraft would be deployed to Australia sometime soon as part of strengthening collaboration on maritime issues.

It’s unclear where the aircraft will be based but it is expected that Australian aircraft will also pay a reciprocal visit to India, as the leaders spoke about the need to keep open critical regional maritime corridors..."

The two articles draw a lot from the joint statements issued via official channels, though the joint statement did not actually mention any specifics of an aircraft deployment:


The important part under the 'Defence & Security Cooperation' section goes:

"Leaders underscored the importance of reciprocal access arrangements in facilitating deeper operational defence cooperation and its contribution towards free and open critical regional maritime corridors."

+++++​

I'm not entirely clear regarding the nature of the Indian P-8's visit. Though the line in the second article about it being 'based' as opposed to the reciprocal Australian aircraft's 'visit' is interesting, but I don't know if that is anything substantial to go on. But what I can tell you is that India has been wanting to operate aircraft out of Australia's Cocos Islands (also known as Keeling Islands) for quite some time.


This interest is documented in publications as well...



The 'reciprocal' part may come in with regard to Australia's access to operate from Indian facilities on the Andaman & Nicobar islands, or perhaps even the new ones coming up on the Mauritius' Agalega island being developed for the Indian Navy, which seems tailored for operations of P-8 or other large aircraft:


While I'd wait & see regarding what kind of 'deployment' AFR is talking about (because it could simply be another joint exercise), but as a closing note, I'd say that in addition to building Domain Awareness underwater (such as through 'Fish Hook' SOSUS/IUSS), its also important for QUAD nations to extend that cooperation into Surface, Air & Space domains in order to build & maintain a full spectrum of surveillance & domain-awareness capabilities against PLAN activities in the Indo-Pacific, which would only be growing by leaps & bounds in the coming years & decades.

@Nilgiri @Cabatli_53 @T-123456 @Paro

Wonder if India and US will eventually cooperate on diego garcia basing too by way of Quad.
 

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As India and the United States hold the 4th 2+2 ministerial summit, Shekhar Gupta reads into the statements from the American and Indian officials. What do the statements & conferences tell us about China, Russia, Ukraine and the future of ties between the two countries. In episode 979 of #CutTheClutter, we also talk about the shift of India's policy from Soviets to Americans.

 

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Footage from the February exercise:


More from the same:


The Ground Self-Defense Force held Dharma Guardian 21 from February 27th (Sun) to March 10th (Thursday), 4th year of Reiwa. It was
Through this exercise, it is possible to improve the GSDF's counter-terrorism capability and further strengthen cooperation between the Japanese and Indian Army
 

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Very sad. RIP Abe-San.

Om shanti, shanti, shanti...

India especially lost a great personal ally in this tragic premature way:

 

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Synopsis

The CAATSA sword has been hanging over the US-India relationship ever since India went for the Russian S-400 missile defence system. While it passed the House, the amendment must still clear the Senate to be truly meaningful.


Washington: Keeping complex geopolitics of the day in mind, the US House of Representatives recommended a waiver for India from punitive US sanctions that could potentially be imposed on New Delhi for buying Russian defence equipment.

The waiver was part of an amendment on strengthening US-India defence relations proposed by Indian American Congressman Ro Khanna. The House voted on Thursday to pass the amendment considered to be an important signal. Working assiduously behind the scenes, Khanna managed to gather bipartisan support for the measure, making its passage almost certain.

The amendment essentially argues that a strong US-India defence partnership is critical in light of increasing threats in the Indo-Pacific and that US sanctions would be counter productive at this time.

A waiver for India under Countering America’s Adversaries Through Sanctions Act (CAATSA) is in the “best interests” of the US since India needs to maintain its Russian weapon systems as it faces “immediate and serious” threats from China along the border, the amendment said. Khanna termed his amendment “historic,” calling it a “huge” marker in bilateral relations.


Indian diplomats watching the process called the vote “significant” and appreciated Khanna’s willingness to stick his neck out for the India relationship. “Getting one chamber on record with a vote against sanctions is important,” one analyst said.

The amendment is attached to the National Defence Authorisation Act (NDAA) for 2023, an annual legislation that funds the vast US defence budget. While it passed the House, the amendment must still clear the Senate to be truly meaningful. Although Khanna is confident the amendment will survive the Senate, it’s not a guarantee given the stance of a few key senators on domestic developments in India.

Interestingly, the US Congress already granted the State Department the requisite authority to waive CAATSA sanctions back in 2019, giving the executive branch flexibility in the matter. But the Joe Biden administration is yet to make a decision on the India case. It seems the Biden team prefers to let sleeping dogs lie instead of highlighting an issue that could prove politically difficult in light of Russia’s war against Ukraine and India’s stand on the ongoing conflict.

The CAATSA sword has been hanging over the US-India relationship ever since India went for the Russian S-400 missile defence system. Khanna’s amendment urges the Biden Administration to take a position, grant a waiver and remove the uncertainty surrounding the matter.
 

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Usa will be demanding something in return.

"Look we did not sanction you now owe us something"
 

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Usa will be demanding something in return.

"Look we did not sanction you now owe us something"

That era is over for India (w.r.t US).

We saw the last bits of it (geopolitical bargaining and pressure) in the 1990s (esp in clinton era and also bush sr and jr in decade after) when world was transitioning into post-cold war and India was quite economically weak and had all kind of problems going on top of that that allowed exploitation of this kind of "India is just another country to push around" approach.

The nuclear testing, rise of China, War on Terror, India's own economic growth and military + geopolitical reach.... all have changed the contours for how US approaches things.

India has a surety for itself it didnt have before.

Simply the chart is established with the US of where you want relations to head/develop....what the likely results will be of every decision in the decision tree. If the US wants to throw away X to accomplish Y.... it is already made clear to them basically. There is no favours for my favours in this (in a grey area), its all mapped out already and there is strategic fora for this to happen regularly.
 

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INFRUS brought up around 12 minute mark

14 minute mark also, hypothetical additional indian nuclear testing in future? @Rajaraja Chola @crixus @Paro @Gessler et al.

it is also all through the (Ashley Tellis) paper provided here that I archived for now in IND nuclear weapons thread:


Quote on page 256:

Instead, through a deliberate policy shift analogous to that of Bush’s nuclear agreement with India but at much lower political cost, it could encourage another U.S. ally—France—to offer India such collaboration with explicit American support.

The resulting agreement between India, France, and the United States (INFRUS) would not only go some distance in placating Paris for the shabby manner in which Washington helped to abort the previous Franco-Australian agreement for submarine construction, but it would also help India to avail of the superb French naval nuclear propulsion technology to build up its own sea-based deterrent (as well as its nuclear attack submarine force). What Washington would do most of all in such a hypothetical INFRUS compact is to endorse and midwife an Indo-French arrangement. Such an agreement, of course, could be concluded independently between Paris and New Delhi, but it is rather unlikely that France would pursue such a deal in the face of either U.S. reluctance or opposition. Consequently, the most sensible approach to aid India in building an effective naval nuclear reactor would be to develop a trilateral mechanism that first discusses the nature of Indian requirements and, thereafter, develops a plan of action that the United States could endorse even if it does not itself contribute any particular nuclear technology. The threats that will be posed by China’s growing nuclear capabilities to India’s strategic reserves are likely to be significant enough in the coming years to warrant the exploration of such ambitious solutions—if the common U.S., French, and Indian goal of preventing Beijing’s hegemony in Asia and globally is to be realized.
 

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INFRUS brought up around 12 minute mark

14 minute mark also, hypothetical additional indian nuclear testing in future? @Rajaraja Chola @crixus @Paro @Gessler et al.

it is also all through the (Ashley Tellis) paper provided here that I archived for now in IND nuclear weapons thread:

I think we had a discussion on this before. But one more Indian testing is unavoidable. It's coming, either in 1 year or 15 years. That testing is very very essential for our partial NFU policy.

Whether we like it or not, lots of questions have been bought up reg '98 testing. Privately believe he is part of Indian bureaucratic lobby who wants to do one more testing with real Megaton warheads. No simulation can replace actual testing (me being test engineer is just a side note ;) )

However with the world economy tanking, and indian economy not so rosy, next few years is not an ideal time for Nuke testing.
 

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