India Quad Archive

[Gary]

Will Joe Biden Fail the 'Pakistan Test'?

The United States continues to consider Pakistan a “major non-NATO ally,” a status bestowed upon only seventeen countries that facilitates military trade and cooperation. In reality, however, Pakistan has acted as anything but.

nationalinterest.org

Would like to discuss the above article with any interested/willing members.

I feel it is a good enough launching point for what are member's thoughts, projections and analysis (if you have any at this point) for US-India (geopolitical) ties this year and say the 1st biden (4 year) term at large...w.r.t the context of a 4 year Trump term and earlier 8 year Obama term etc.

Please keep the discussion as focused as possible...any criticism of any country is to be directed at political establishment only etc (just like the article does)...and not the people at large. Thanks.

Saiyan seems to detect something is afoot:




IMO, the broad early priority contours (for India) with Biden admin this year for FATF coming up (February and whatever the next date after that is if say grey listing continues at the Feb meeting, since February is quite early tbh) will be whether US is serious to pressure Malaysia (they can do so like has been shown with GCC earlier) govt on well-deserved (IMO) FATF blacklisting....like the article's author also highlights.

Given clearly Indian diplomacy alone did not/could not achieve this (at least so far in time/effort alloted) w.r.t Malaysia in the last meeting (october?) even under non-Mahathir admin (though again it might have been a case of insufficient time, discussion and negotiations etc at that juncture)

This can be presented (by Indian MEA) as an avenue (for Biden admin) to help dissipate any attrition (in relations) that stems from S-400 sanctions Biden admin is already strongly insinuating will arrive soon. I will give Biden admin major kudos over the Trump admin if they achieve this...it of course remains to be seen.

It will also coordinate handily with increased presence the Biden Admin wants to level up in AFG theatre. (Though this cooperation can be done separately by India if FATF is a no-go).

It can be looked at as a changed geopolitical headwind (w.r.t trump tenure/inertia) for India to orient w.r.t keeping strong strategic bipartisan + stable cooperation with US going in that if there is less "Quad"/"Pompeo" kind of stuff (due to S-400 issue surfacing again now)

US likely ramping + persisting a (larger + impactful) deployment there suits India's interests lot more (compared to Trump admin), it will not need to factor in for this decade some vaguer notion of skeletal "Blackwater" help to ANA and Afghan govt.

So India can be smart to use any S-400 sanctions (and any other planned friction points) as a silver lining...given the Biden admin would very likely be most receptive to this looking at some of the names+legacies in the cabinet (esp Blinken).

I give another potential silver lining for India on this S-400 matter here too (at bottom of post, though the context is different):

https://defencehub.live/threads/indian-tedbf-–-sneak-peek.4564/#post-47823

I don't get the impression at all that Biden admin wants to take the relationship backwards in any way...so there is thus scope for shifting marbles from one cup to another since both sides now have a number of these arrayed in table between them.

All the downstream verbal accoutrements (in official statements, media dissemination etc) and tolerable scope for these for next 4 years etc... can also be pre-planned and organised in say first half of this year by US state dept and Indian MEA if they both are attuned to all of this (Which I think is likely ever since the Bush + MMS admins nuclear deal etc.)

Would like to hear any of your thoughts/comments if you feel like sharing them.

@Paro @Joe Shearer @Kartal1 @VCheng @Milspec @#comcom @Madokafc @Zapper @Jackdaws et al.

Pakistan is still major non Nato ally? Just realized. I thought the US disavowed Pakistan not so long ago..

 

[Nilgiri]

It all depends on Kabul. My guess is Trump pushed the Afghan admin to accept a deal with the Taliban. How anyone in his right mind can make a deal with the Taliban and expect them to keep their end of the bargain deserves its own thesis in stupidity - the Bible for that would "Art of the Deal".

Biden will revisit the deal and it will collapse. Pak is going to be disappointed.

Honestly it was not a solely Trump decision...the AFG war has really dragged on for lot of US public, so it was a natural bipartisan populist platform developing from even Bush2 era (and really grew under Obama era)...that would inevitably come to the fore against the establishment+MIC+media narrative.

It is exact reason why Bernie pushed the closure of such wars as well (which would have necessitated the exact same peace overtures with Taliban by the deep state agents willing to manage that)....or is he an "art of the deal" "moron" too?

You have to look beyond personalities w.r.t executive branch otherwise that will dragnet spectacle a whole host of presidents (in truly awful ways) once you get past the media cover and favouritism.

In fact I doubt even 1% of people out there both in the US and outside it can truly name the last reasonable president that actually understood (and faithfully implemented) what the scope/role of the presidency even was.

It will likely astonish most how far back you would have to go....because very few even study this...and excessively rely on conventional media larping which builds up into some conventional wisdom narrative over time too (in often frankly illogical way).

Anyway Trump simply didnt have any political favours and grooming (from MIC related institutions+donors etc) coming in...but he was still managed by the deep state anyway as far as the pacing (while they worked to undermine and get rid of him altogether)

In any case, I will give more on this later (as it related to Indian side, strategy and geopolitics w.r.t hostile region angle specifically) in a more appropriate thread . This one I'd like to steer to peoples opinions on the Biden admin for next 4 years...for both the region but at large too.

Well Pakistan has still advantage nonetheless,they would receive US aid if US troops stay and probably more weaponry or even upgraded f16s and not to forget Pakistan could blackmail US for its advantage.
The US troops are stuck into abyss

It is extremely unlikely CSF or military aid will be opened and resumed by US to Pakistan to the level it initially was. Biden might open a trickle (for basic logistics but nothing for counter-terrorism operation cooperation which was the big bulk under Bush and Obama...since US no longer requires or trusts Pakistan with this).

Even that (logistics payment support trickle if it happens) will be more than compensated (w.r.t Indian strategy) in the drawn out American presence in AFG.

Several key positions have been or are in the process of being filled by US military commanders that were field ranks during the duplicitous nature of Pakistan at the border....but now they are flag ranks. ....continuing the trend that happened under late-Obama and then Trump admin. Biden is not going to upset that advisory and planning pressure trend in any big way.

There will be no significant weapons or upgrades for this very reason too.

Another 1000+ page multi-thread-stronk hot air waste at certain forum speculating and whining and dreaming about it (and even the whiz-kid stuff of "done deal" just wait and see!)... the funny part was how it (dreams + fondness and fawning over old sugar daddy) upset their new sugar daddy. You stirr plefuh amelican ovuh us?

Pakistan is still major non Nato ally? Just realized. I thought the US disavowed Pakistan not so long ago..

It is just for nominal sake now.... North Korea still has democratic republic in its name too. This was writing in the wall from events from about 2004 - 2012 w.r.t Pakistan's hand in the border stuff + haqqani + direct "good" talibunny etc. (that many majors, colonels et al that are now brig gens+ et al lived through and remeber), and the OBL doozie on top.

 

[Nilgiri]

F-15EX is a beast of a fighter. Even better on-paper specs than un-upgraded Su-30MKI.

However, it will never be procured. Logistics, bases, training, etc. have already been setup for Rafale.

Lot of this is diplomatic symbolism.

US knows very well our position and fiscal pressures.

 

[Joe Shearer]

It all depends on Kabul. My guess is Trump pushed the Afghan admin to accept a deal with the Taliban. How anyone in his right mind can make a deal with the Taliban and expect them to keep their end of the bargain deserves its own thesis in stupidity - the Bible for that would "Art of the Deal".

Biden will revisit the deal and it will collapse. Pak is going to be disappointed.

Pakistan is not going to be disappointed, because Pakistan is never disappointed. That is where Indian analysis and observation fails totally; Indian analysts expect somebody whom they oppose to behave in ways that they wish would happen.

Two points, and it is best left at that:

1. The Pakistani establishment has its own narrative, and, using a combination of their iron grip on their country's vision and imagination, they ensure that the outside reality is always converted into a most favourable environment for the country, engineered, needless to add, by that very same establishment. Loyal citizens should therefore be grateful; citizens who are not grateful are automatically classified, in this way, as disloyal. The paradigms that the Indian establishment in the making set for itself and the country did not emerge from thin air; imitation, they say, is the sincerest form of flattery, and that itself speaks loudly and clearly for the prospects of peace in the sub-continent.
2. The Pakistani establishment also has a moral compass that is reflexive; at all times, it points to itself. When it suited the situation, they were hostile to Afghanistan. When Khalq and Parcham went on a murdering spree, there was a visible tremor in the attitude; when the Russians walked in, that tremor became an overwhelming urge to action. That action consisted of other people killing the Russians, while the Pakistanis repeatedly reminded those other people that they, and nobody else, had organised things to create this mise en place. This continues; soon, the regime that they and only one or two others had sought to legitimise was abandoned under the pressure of American strategic bombing. More: the Russians became a source of military supplies.
   
   One can multiply these instances. Sometimes the feeling grows that the country may have its national anthem, but the establishment, that so clearly acts in its own interest and against the country's interest should have its own anthem. Might I suggest The Vicar of Bray?

 

[Nilgiri]

First Indo-US combat drill of Biden era in Rajasthan next week | India News - Times of India

India News: India and the US are all set to kick off a major combat exercise in Rajasthan next week, in the first such bilateral wargame after the Biden administr

timesofindia.indiatimes.com

 

[xizhimen]

I guess all is fair in love, war and containing the rise of China.

Funny thing is, all of them, every single of them has China their biggest trading partner. How ironic, lol..

 

[Nilgiri]

Funny thing is, all of them, every single of them has China their biggest trading partner. How ironic, lol..

Japan was China's biggest trading partner during WW2

How ironic. Though I wouldn't add a lol....that's more a beijingwalker thing. Are you him?

 

[xizhimen]

These are the biggest U.S. trade partners

• China – $636 billion.
• Canada – $582.4 billion.
• Mexico – $557 billion.
• Japan – $204.2 billion.
• Germany – $171.2 billion.
• South Korea – $119.4 billion.
• United Kingdom – $109.4 billion.
• France – $82.5 billion.

List of the largest trading partners of Japan
1. China $ 296.807 billion
2. ASEAN $ 208.492 billion
3. United States $ 206.633 billion



The largest trading partners of Australia

Rank	Country/District	Exports	Imports	Total Trade	Trade Balance
1	China​	136,287	78,321	214,672	57,966
2	Japan​	58,796	26,967	81,276	31,829
3	European Union​	13,001	47,573	60,574	-34,572
4	United States​	12,943	31,603	44,546	−18,660

 

[xizhimen]

Japan was China's biggest trading partner during WW2.

How ironic. Though I wouldn't add a lol....that's more a beijingwalker thing. Are you him?

Yes, I lost my password of my Xizhimen account, which is my mostly used name in all forums, since then I sticked to Beijingwalker account applied by a friend in PDF, the user's name Beijingwalker is never used in other forums.

 

[Nilgiri]

Yes, I lost my password of my Xizhimen account, which is my mostly used name in all forums, since then I sticked to Beijingwalker account applied by a friend in PDF, the user's name Beijingwalker is never used in other forums.

Literally says beijingwalker joined in 2011, 1 year before xizhimen (2012) at PDF.

It is very clear why you went with "xizhimen" account about 1 year later...with just 641 posts...and only posting when beijingwalker account was clearly banned.

The concise limited dates of posts all illustrate this.

In one example thread, you can even see xizhimen start to post: https://tinyurl.com/y6hrlyl7

Then beijingwalker posts in same thread few days later (after getting unbanned) and then xizhimen next posting date range is like a year later (when beijingwalker gets banned again)

Here's another example: https://tinyurl.com/y4nzjxfl

So spare me (yet another) cringe-story about making it "first" and "losing the pw" (since you clearly "re-acquired" the pw for xizhimen at distinct times w.r.t beijingwalker ban periods).

i.e It was clearly a multi-account for beijingwalker account bans.

I am giving you a thread ban (for a month) for this continued lying and dishonesty.

If you were just open about who you were (esp given so many of us use our main PDF names) given your past agenda (since many here knows you as beijingwalker given near 40k posts there - a huge amount directed in foul ways against India, Turkey, US, West etc), you could have avoided all of this from my end and some others (first detected by the exact same cross-posting).

You could have simply taken whatever on the chin (due to your behaviour and posting history at PDF), and start with some basic level of honesty here...rather than deception and cover-up and then a fake "whoopsie" when you get exposed.

It is thus very clear why you went with "xizhimen" here when joining, and why you still continue to post foul posts at PDF as beijingwalker (making use of the very lax rules there for PRC folks).

Yet you curate the bulk of that for here with the "xizhimen" and comply and say stuff like "slander" and "propaganda" whatever w.r.t western, turkish and indian media.

You honestly expected to hold all sides of this without anyone noticing and and calling you out on it? You still do not see the slightest bit of hypocrisy on this from your end?

C'mon with your disgusting IQ rants at PDF and other vicious attacks against my country and country people (and Turkey as well and whomever else catches your fancy when they dont comply with your nonsense), you ought to have done lot better and smarter don't you think?

Or are you some exception to your own rule..."lol".

Why do you continue to think people were born yesterday and not see through your curated larping "here"...and troll games and worse "there"?

I have edited some of the recent posts in here as I got unreasonable (given all the abuse you have levelled against my country, Turkey and whichever others that were suitable for your foul troll games on PDF) and exceeded past what I should have said instead.

I will still defend your right to free speech and presence (on this forum) and I will refrain from describing what I think of you anymore (I leave that to rest to decide) since you have come clean on your main identity finally....and that you follow the rules within here pretty much to a T.

I do so even with your deception+agenda+dishonesty here and your continuing bile against India on PDF (now that Turks have all left and Turkey isn't worth the time for your game there)....because this forum is indeed a fresh start and level playing field for all (with or without an agenda is their business and choice)

But you are advised for last time to think twice about starting or participating in threads about India, especially on this subforum, given your agenda (on PDF and wherever else you are) and hypocritical curation approach here....thinking and assuming that will pass muster...when we can see what you continue to think past it on PDF.

Which was clearly the whole thing you thought you could avoid by using "xizhimen"...and figured no one will notice....tsk tsk. Anyway continue your posts as you see fit as you would like...but take this on board too.

 

[VCheng]

I don't get the impression at all that Biden admin wants to take the relationship backwards in any way...so there is thus scope for shifting marbles from one cup to another since both sides now have a number of these arrayed in table between them.

To summarize, Pakistan will remain desperate to remain relevant, but US policy will no longer afford it the leeway to remain so. In other words, more of the same with no major changes.

 

[Joe Shearer]

To summarize, Pakistan will remain desperate to remain relevant, but US policy will no longer afford it the leeway to remain so. In other words, more of the same with no major changes.

Absolutely. Plus ca change plus c'est la meme chose.

 

[Nilgiri]

w.r.t:

THE LONGER TELEGRAM: Toward a new American China strategy

https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/content-series/atlantic-council-strategy-paper-series/the-longer-telegram/?utm_source=politico&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=strategy_paper_series A good long read for those interested on the subject @Kartal1 @T-123456 et al.

defencehub.live

and this take/summary on it (w.r.t India):

Would like to hear all your views and comments

@VCheng @Paro @Joe Shearer et al.

 

[Nilgiri]

I'll add my comments a bit later, just want to hear any others first.

 

[VCheng]

I'll add my comments a bit later, just want to hear any others first.

I am trying to listen to the half hour video 9!) in bits as I find time.

 

[Nilgiri]

Soft warning (0 pts since its first time) issued to @Farooq Rashid Butt and thread ban of 1 month for attempt at circumventing forum rules by using his own blog article and attacking whole country w.r.t "terrorism".

As for the point you were trying to make (which you are free to explore in your own subforum or another thread but appropriately).....Pakistan's role is increasingly commensurate to the 20 billion dollars it is capable of saving a year (just one third of its import per year)....and the growing track record of its foreign diplomacy antics.

It is clear what PRC itself sees w.r.t Pakistan in that it will not level/support any charge against India that Pakistan establishment squawks about from time to time and presents "dossiers" on.

Very different to the internationally recognised and proven (and accepted by Pakistani govt) terror attack on Bombay that shapes the larger discourse in the world (w.r.t Pakistan) along with such things as the OBL raid, haqqani network and FATF.

So it is best you introspect with the same standard on your own establishment. Notice how I don't label entire country?

 

[Paro]

w.r.t:

THE LONGER TELEGRAM: Toward a new American China strategy

https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/content-series/atlantic-council-strategy-paper-series/the-longer-telegram/?utm_source=politico&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=strategy_paper_series A good long read for those interested on the subject @Kartal1 @T-123456 et al.

defencehub.live

and this take/summary on it (w.r.t India):

Would like to hear all your views and comments

@VCheng @Paro @Joe Shearer et al.

@Zapper @Milspec @Jackdaws @Saiyan0321 @Raptor

 

[Milspec]

@Zapper @Milspec @Jackdaws @Saiyan0321 @Raptor

Watched the Video yesterday, intended to read the paper over the weekend. thanks

 

[Nilgiri]

 

[Joe Shearer]

w.r.t:

THE LONGER TELEGRAM: Toward a new American China strategy

https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/content-series/atlantic-council-strategy-paper-series/the-longer-telegram/?utm_source=politico&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=strategy_paper_series A good long read for those interested on the subject @Kartal1 @T-123456 et al.

defencehub.live

and this take/summary on it (w.r.t India):

Would like to hear all your views and comments

@VCheng @Paro @Joe Shearer et al.

My views are sadly constrained by my fixed belief that democracy in India is at present in the throes of a gradual, creeping coup d'etat.
The government has lied consistently about the extent of the damage to Indian interests caused by China's new-found bellicosity. They have also displayed not the slightest hesitation in getting responsible military and civilian administrative leaders to issue ambiguous statements that seem to support the government's narrative that nothing has been lost, that the situation is under control, that the two sides are equally poised and only when both agree on terms that are equal will the situation be resolved.
It has also demonstrated without any ambiguity that India has not the slightest influence over China's actions, and India's leadership also has neither the intelligence nor the resolve to pursue the issue.
Under the circumstances, it is difficult to see what the government can possibly do, that will make a difference.