Analysis QUAD Joint Statement & Fact Sheet: A Few Pointers

Gessler

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The official release of the Joint Statement from the first in-person summit of Quad leaders (US, India, Australia & Japan) can be found here:


And the subsequent fact sheet here:


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What follows is purely my analysis of the developments.

Firstly, there seems to be an effort to edge out the poorly-performing Chinese vaccines from the Indo-Pacific region, with the QUAD pledging to donate over 1.2 billion vaccines - mostly manufactured in India.

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Moving to the more interesting topics which will outlast the pandemic, specially under the "Critical & Emerging Technologies" domain:​

"We have established cooperation on critical and emerging technologies, to ensure the way in which technology is designed, developed, governed, and used is shaped by our shared values and respect for universal human rights."

Everything flows from that above line from the Joint Statement, carefully crafted to exclude China without naming it. The most critical elements seem to be an effort to not let China set the standards for the new & emerging techs that will shape global economy for decades to come. Such as:

  • "In partnership with industry, we are advancing the deployment of secure, open, and transparent 5G and beyond-5G networks, and working with a range of partners to foster innovation and promote trustworthy vendors and approaches such as Open-RAN."

  • "With respect to the development of technical standards, we will establish sector-specific contact groups to promote an open, inclusive, private-sector-led, multi-stakeholder, and consensus-based approach. We will also coordinate and cooperate in multilateral standardization organizations such as the International Telecommunication Union."

  • "We are mapping the supply chain of critical technologies and materials, including semiconductors, and affirm our positive commitment to resilient, diverse, and secure supply chains of critical technologies, recognizing the importance of government support measures and policies that are transparent and market-oriented."

  • "We are also launching today Quad Principles on Technology Design, Development, Governance, and Use that we hope will guide not only the region but the world towards responsible, open, high-standards innovation."

The Trump-era policy of excluding China from global 5G networks seems to be carried forward, among so much more.

Further points from the Fact Sheet that expand on these:

  • Establish Technical Standards Contact Groups: The Quad will establish contact groups on Advanced Communications and Artificial Intelligence focusing on standards-development activities as well as foundational pre-standardization research.

  • Launch a Semiconductor Supply Chain Initiative: Quad partners will launch a joint initiative to map capacity, identify vulnerabilities, and bolster supply-chain security for semiconductors and their vital components. This initiative will help ensure Quad partners support a diverse and competitive market that produces the secure critical technologies essential for digital economies globally.

  • Support 5G Deployment and Diversification: To support the critical role of Quad governments in fostering and promoting a diverse, resilient, and secure telecommunications ecosystem, the Quad has launched a Track 1.5 industry dialogue on Open RAN deployment and adoption, coordinated by the Open RAN Policy Coalition. Quad partners will jointly facilitate enabling environments for 5G diversification, including with efforts related to testing and test facilities.

On that last point: it will also have to include laying of submarine communication cables, and maintaining & protecting them from hostile action.

There are also elements designed to counter the Belt & Road, but looks like the focus is on Tech right now and creating China-independent supply chains. I always thought QUAD would progress toward a larger geo-economic containment of China, designed to seek isolation of (and insulation from), the Communist government, and is not simply a Maritime security grouping. The moves are in that direction. I can't help but see some elements of the infamous "Rockefeller Trilateral" Commission between US, Europe & Japan formed in the 70s...except now its Quadrilateral, and led by Governments rather than private individuals.

Another point of note in the joint statement is that India (by extension of it being a 'joint statement') seems to have adopted the policy of demanding complete de-nuclearization of North Korea. I'm not entirely aware of what the Indian stand was before this - but its interesting nonetheless, considering both India & DPRK are Nuclear states that are non-signatory to the NPT. Though India enjoys most of the benefits of being a signatory, courtesy the '123 Agreement' of 2005 aka the Indo-US Nuclear Deal, plus all the benefits of being a Nuclear Suppliers Group member despite again being a non-member (thanks to Chinese policy).

The statement in question:
"We reaffirm our commitment to the complete denuclearization of North Korea in accordance with United Nations Security Council resolutions, and also confirm the necessity of immediate resolution of the issue of Japanese abductees. We urge North Korea to abide by its UN obligations, refrain from provocations. We also call on North Korea to engage in substantive dialogue."
 
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Merzifonlu

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Hummm.

As far as I understand, these QUAD will enter a full on techno-economic war with China.
 

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