Live Conflict Syria Civil War

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If the U.S.-Israeli side thinks they can hug HTS now (in order to sideline Assad first), to squeeze them later with the help of YPG, by a media onslaught of suddenly remembering HTS' past, I'm not that sure that plan is going to work.
I think HTS taking Syria is lesser evil for Israel.

Past year Israel was fighting the entire Shia axis:

* Hamas, although are Sunnis, openly joined the Shia axis (they were getting weapons from Iran, money, their leaders constantly visited Iran).
* Hezbollah, which launched tens of thousands rockets at northern Israel.
* Houthis, which imposed naval blockade on Eilat port and launched drones and ballistic missiles.
* Iraqi Shia militias which lunched drones against Israel.
* Iran itself which armed and financed all of them and also directly attacked Israel twice with ballistic missiles.

The weakening of Hezbollah in 1 year war with Israel was one of main reasons of current rebel success.

If rebels take Syria Hezbollah will be isolated and will never restore back to its power. Will rebels attack Israel after liberating Syria? I doubt. Golan heights is good buffer zone. Attacking Israel with short range rockets from Syria is useless. Long range rockets can be detected and destroyed and I doubt that anyone will give them such rockets. Plus I dont think that anyone in Syria is interested in war now.
 

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"...in the event of a forced relocation from Tartus, Syria, today (December 4) we tracked a new mission of a US Navy Northrop Grumman MQ-4C (reg. 169660 – c/s BLACKCAT5) over the Eastern Mediterranean.

The drone patrolled the entire eastern coastline, from Syria to Israel, without conducting any specific orbits.

Notably, yesterday (December 3) we also tracked a BLACKCAT mission, which instead focused on Libya, particularly the eastern part, where the port of Tobruk is located—a potential destination for the Russian fleet should they leave Syria."
 

Rooxbar

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I think HTS taking Syria is lesser evil for Israel.

Past year Israel was fighting the entire Shia axis:

* Hamas, although are Sunnis, openly joined the Shia axis (they were getting weapons from Iran, money, their leaders constantly visited Iran).
* Hezbollah, which launched tens of thousands rockets at northern Israel.
* Houthis, which imposed naval blockade on Eilat port and launched drones and ballistic missiles.
* Iraqi Shia militias which lunched drones against Israel.
* Iran itself which armed and financed all of them and also directly attacked Israel twice with ballistic missiles.

The weakening of Hezbollah in 1 year war with Israel was one of main reasons of current rebel success.

If rebels take Syria Hezbollah will be isolated and will never restore back to its power. Will rebels attack Israel after liberating Syria? I doubt. Golan heights is good buffer zone. Attacking Israel with short range rockets from Syria is useless. Long range rockets can be detected and destroyed and I doubt that anyone will give them such rockets. Plus I dont think that anyone in Syria is interested in war now.
I very much doubt this is what Israelis have in mind for the long-term; their best bet is a fragmented Syria with an Alawite enclave around Damascus and a Kurdish region in line with the 'alliance of the periphery'.
 

dBSPL

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Ghazali back on Twitter. He has some good analyses, those who are interested can take a look, especially the last thing he wrote is impossible to disagree with. From now on, it is a ' herro or merro' situation.


"In the 2011 revolution, the opposition, which controlled most of the country, saw what the failure to overthrow Assad cost us in the long run with Astana. Likewise, they now see how the Russian-Regime bloc's abandonment of Idlib in the Spring shield reflects on them in the long run. We should not make the mistake that the opposition made 12 years ago, nor the mistake that the regime made 4 years ago. This time a direct checkmate must be played. By cutting the Deir ez-Zor direction, the Baath's trade with the YPG should also be cut off so that it cannot get fuel. The opposition forces should march directly to Damascus. "

"Otherwise, in a possible change of conjuncture, they will not even leave Idlib, let alone the places we took this time. So they took that bait once. After this hour, no one will sit and wait in sochi or elsewhere. At the end of this, opposition will either topple them or be driven to failure."

syria.JPG
 

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I very much doubt this is what Israelis have in mind for the long-term; their best bet is a fragmented Syria with an Alawite enclave around Damascus and a Kurdish region in line with the 'alliance of the periphery'.
I think the realistic Israeli plan would be:
  • A non-kurdish dominated SDF around the Raqqa - Dayr ez Zor axis. Official US guarantee for them.
  • Turkey bogged down by the more PKK elements along the northern border.
  • Friendly Alawite regime along the coast, like Lebanese christians. Cultural identity centered around modernity and level of westernization.
  • Whoever holds Damascus-Aleppo line being at least neutral towards Israel, or very weak.
  • Hezbollah to Hashd route cut off.
Which means Israel will pursue:
  • SDF operation to capture the entire Iraqi border in case of regime collapse. This will be done under anti-ISIS pretenses. I also expect this to be relatively bloodless in case of regime collapse.
  • Normalization with HTS if Jolani signals non-aggression. He seems to be doing just that.
  • Covert support to PKK-YPG. They already achieve this by directing US decision makers, but any Turkish operation would send this into an overdrive. Expect Our Kurdish Allies(TM) BS to reach heights never before seen.
  • Deposing Assad and breaking the power of Iran completely, and Russia partially in the region. Russia may be a valuable contributor to a non-Iran aligned Alawite statelet along the coast. That region has all the noteworthy things (military infrastructure) Russians want from Syria.
 

Sanchez

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If the U.S.-Israeli side thinks they can hug HTS now (in order to sideline Assad first), to squeeze them later with the help of YPG, by a media onslaught of suddenly remembering HTS' past, I'm not that sure that plan is going to work.
I don't the people really care about jihadist terror angle anymore so agreed. ISIS is dead, new guys promise reconciliation. Wouldn't work.
 

dBSPL

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After Aleppo, with the Hama circular, HTS has actually announced that it will first withdraw from urban centers immadiatly, leave the administration to civilians and finally dissolve itself. No other terrorist organization in the world cannot do this. Because this is a tendency against the nature of terrorism. At this point, there are really few 'Syria experts' in our country who can read the transformation of HTS correctly.

While the regime and the SDF (i.e. PKK) are engaged in systematic depopulation and oppression of the population through torture and arbitrary arrests in the areas they captured through military operations, the first thing the organizations under the umbrella of the opposition forces do is to release the prisoners in the torture centers and dungeons they have captured. The opposition forces are greeted with joyful demonstrations in every town and city they enter. There is not the slightest resistance, not even in Hama, where opposition forces entered for the first time. And thousands of opposition prisoners are released from regime prisons with general amnesties. Civil servants in Hama continue to work, all churches are open, bakeries in Idlib are working for Aleppo, asphalt machines are repairing roads, and the people are reuniting after years.

I think it is time for those who are sensitive to the issue in our country, especially those who want the Syrian refugees to return home, to understand the conditions that will enable these conditions to be created and therefore what the 'majority' of the Syrian people, half of whom are refugees, really want.

For years, some so called experts in Turkiye has tried to convince that an elite minority in Syria, supported in some places with superimposed secterians from Afghanistan, Pakistans, Iran etc, is the legitimate regime in Syria, without seeing the nearly 10 million Syrians who have become refugees, without seeing the seas of refugee camps in Idlib, without seeing the lives rotting in the dungeons of the regime, without talking about the 600,000 civilians killed, or half of country sold to pkk... They even tried to make us forget that even most of terrorism problem we are experiencing is largely the fault of this regime and its collaborators who approach with a sense of revenge. But now, the spear no longer fits in the sack. Now this segment needs to shut up a bit and make some self-criticism. As a country, we should not miss the window of opportunity this time that may arise in developing conditions at this point.
 

Huelague

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"The dwarves delved too greedily and too deep. You know what they awoke in the darkness of Khazad-dum... shadow and flame..."

Perfect
Is there any Türk on that planet that don’t know and like Lord of the rings?
 

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Following the last National Security Council meeting of the year, a 5-article declaration was published. The declaration, which emphasized the developments in Syria, included the message that terrorist organizations would never be allowed to pass, and that all threats to national security and the public would be eliminated in source. In addition to terrorist organizations, the declaration includes clear statements regarding the ceasefire in Lebanon, and Israel's agression. There are also messages about the Ukrainian war and the Azerbaijan-Armenia peace-process. I'm too lazy to translate the entire text, but here are some of the statements in the section regarding Syria:

It was underlined that it is important to take the necessary measures to prevent the recent developments in Syria from harming the life and property security of civilians.

It was stated that the regime has once again shown that it must compromise with its own people and the legitimate opposition, that our country has always given strong support to the preservation of Syria's territorial integrity and unity and is ready to provide all necessary contributions, and it was emphasized that terrorist organizations that try to take advantage of the instability will never be allowed to pass, and that all kinds of threats to our national security and our people will be eliminated in source.
 

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With the rebel take-over of Syria, Turkiye is also entering dangerous waters. Turkiye would likely want to move its military closer to Israel to liberate Palestine at some point. entering this game will put Turkiye directly face to face with the west.
 

Khagan1923

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With the rebel take-over of Syria, Turkiye is also entering dangerous waters. Turkiye would likely want to move its military closer to Israel to liberate Palestine at some point. entering this game will put Turkiye directly face to face with the west.
Erdogan trying anything like that will lead to him leaving that seat faster than anything else before. Don't know where you guys get this idea that the Turkish people have any interested in bleeding in any sort of way for palestine. The only reason Türkiye has even any interest in Syria is because the pkk is active there.

Türkiye fighting a war for palestine is nothing but the hallucination of islamists and non-turks who have a Turk-fetish.
 

Agha Sher

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Erdogan trying anything like that will lead to him leaving that seat faster than anything else before. Don't know where you guys get this idea that the Turkish people have any interested in bleeding in any sort of way for palestine. The only reason Türkiye has even any interest in Syria is because the pkk is active there.

Türkiye fighting a war for palestine is nothing but the hallucination of islamists and non-turks who have a Turk-fetish.

Without a doubt Turkiye will seek to create a strong ally out of the new Syrian state. Doing so, would mean to also protect them against Israeli strikes and to rebuild their army, navy and air force. Turkiye and Israels interest's are bound to clash
 

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After Aleppo, with the Hama circular, HTS has actually announced that it will first withdraw from urban centers immadiatly, leave the administration to civilians and finally dissolve itself. No other terrorist organization in the world cannot do this. Because this is a tendency against the nature of terrorism. At this point, there are really few 'Syria experts' in our country who can read the transformation of HTS correctly.

While the regime and the SDF (i.e. PKK) are engaged in systematic depopulation and oppression of the population through torture and arbitrary arrests in the areas they captured through military operations, the first thing the organizations under the umbrella of the opposition forces do is to release the prisoners in the torture centers and dungeons they have captured. The opposition forces are greeted with joyful demonstrations in every town and city they enter. There is not the slightest resistance, not even in Hama, where opposition forces entered for the first time. And thousands of opposition prisoners are released from regime prisons with general amnesties. Civil servants in Hama continue to work, all churches are open, bakeries in Idlib are working for Aleppo, asphalt machines are repairing roads, and the people are reuniting after years.

I think it is time for those who are sensitive to the issue in our country, especially those who want the Syrian refugees to return home, to understand the conditions that will enable these conditions to be created and therefore what the 'majority' of the Syrian people, half of whom are refugees, really want.

For years, some so called experts in Turkiye has tried to convince that an elite minority in Syria, supported in some places with superimposed secterians from Afghanistan, Pakistans, Iran etc, is the legitimate regime in Syria, without seeing the nearly 10 million Syrians who have become refugees, without seeing the seas of refugee camps in Idlib, without seeing the lives rotting in the dungeons of the regime, without talking about the 600,000 civilians killed, or half of country sold to pkk... They even tried to make us forget that even most of terrorism problem we are experiencing is largely the fault of this regime and its collaborators who approach with a sense of revenge. But now, the spear no longer fits in the sack. Now this segment needs to shut up a bit and make some self-criticism. As a country, we should not miss the window of opportunity this time that may arise in developing conditions at this point.

you are leading us to disaster with your short sightedness we are falling right into PKK-US-israel's plan we must stop attacking assad and start talking to him immediately. syrian national army is our ally not HTS their members flip-flop between HTS and PKK. if we keep attacking and weakening assad we are paving the way for davut koridor and connecting PKK to mediternia few month ago admiral cihat yayci warn us about that

images

F9FFN1kWwAAEAJd.jpg


americans always wanted to connect PKK in syria to mediterania but we stop them at afrien and other opration now they want to create alternative route. assad in Damascus has 3 front to worry about in the north the rebels in the south israel and the north east PKK. you can see americans occupies area in the south of Syria if PKK attack from north east and israel attack from south west they can connect to that pocket the Americans are holding and establesh a davut koridor and connect PKK to mediterania hence fix all of their logistical problem


here is what we must do

1) let assad have homs while rebels have hama these are stronghold hama guarantee that assad wont be able to lunch any attakc north while homs guarantee that rebels wont able to attack to Damascus the area between need to ne patrolled jointly by turkey and russia we must put ourselves between assad and the rebels and guarantee peace between them
2) we must garantee russians that the rebles wont attack their naval base and we have no intation of ejecting their navy from syria in exchange they should guarantee they wont bring more troops threating rebels

ss.JPG


3) we should move with northren route to blocked PKK reaching mediterania but first we must take the manbij then raqqa turn them to stronghold and supply depo then rush to iraqi border this however will surely bring iranians displesure but that is the problem for another time

the way politicians in Washington behaving as if in next few years there wont be a state called Syria they want rebels and assad destroy syria then declear kurdistan. we must do this and put an end to this before trump's
pro-PKK government gets in
 

Huelague

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After fall of Hama rebels will easily take Rastan-Talbise-Houla area I marked on map. Then only Homs remains connecting Alawite coast to Damascus and Daraa. Losing Homs means losing everything for Assad.

View attachment 72500
If Syria fall to opposition Party, Israel should give back Golan high and make a peace agreement with Syria.
 

Huelague

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you are leading us to disaster with your short sightedness we are falling right into PKK-US-israel's plan we must stop attacking assad and start talking to him immediately. syrian national army is our ally not HTS their members flip-flop between HTS and PKK. if we keep attacking and weakening assad we are paving the way for davut koridor and connecting PKK to mediternia few month ago admiral cihat yayci warn us about that

images

F9FFN1kWwAAEAJd.jpg


americans always wanted to connect PKK in syria to mediterania but we stop them at afrien and other opration now they want to create alternative route. assad in Damascus has 3 front to worry about in the north the rebels in the south israel and the north east PKK. you can see americans occupies area in the south of Syria if PKK attack from north east and israel attack from south west they can connect to that pocket the Americans are holding and establesh a davut koridor and connect PKK to mediterania hence fix all of their logistical problem


here is what we must do

1) let assad have homs while rebels have hama these are stronghold hama guarantee that assad wont be able to lunch any attakc north while homs guarantee that rebels wont able to attack to Damascus the area between need to ne patrolled jointly by turkey and russia we must put ourselves between assad and the rebels and guarantee peace between them
2) we must garantee russians that the rebles wont attack their naval base and we have no intation of ejecting their navy from syria in exchange they should guarantee they wont bring more troops threating rebels

View attachment 72502

3) we should move with northren route to blocked PKK reaching mediterania but first we must take the manbij then raqqa turn them to stronghold and supply depo then rush to iraqi border this however will surely bring iranians displesure but that is the problem for another time

the way politicians in Washington behaving as if in next few years there wont be a state called Syria they want rebels and assad destroy syria then declear kurdistan. we must do this and put an end to this before trump's
pro-PKK government gets in
You are really suspicious 🤔
 

Asena_great

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You are really suspicious 🤔
go ahead keep attacking Assad and weaken him soon you will see Israel knockings the door from the south while PKK from north they will connect in middle where American are. 3-4 month ago admiral cihat yayci warn this may happen watch the video that i have uploaded
 

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