Live Conflict Syrian Civil War

[Blackeyes90]

BIG: Massive Assad regime convoys reportedly withdraws from Hama city centre to Homs. Assad regime’s defence lines completely collapsed.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1862871078667682013

 

[dBSPL]

BIG: Massive Assad regime convoys reportedly withdraws from Hama city centre to Homs. Assad regime’s defence lines completely collapsed.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1862871078667682013

I think they'll hold Hama. Re-establishing defense line in Homs would not be re-organization but the regime's fight for survival. So I am a bit cautious about this news, let's see. Expanding up to this extent would also pose risks for the coordination of the lines, which is apparently one of the aims of such a deep withdrawal.

 

[Blackeyes90]

I think they'll hold Hama. Re-establishing defense line in Homs would not be re-organization but the regime's fight for survival. So I am a bit cautious about this news, let's see.

Could be. Still no news about Assad though. SAA moral must be all time low. So ı woudnt be surprised if they simply disintegrated.

 

[Ryder]

Could be. Still no news about Assad though. SAA moral must be all time low. So ı woudnt be surprised if they simply disintegrated.

Assad regime is on life support.

Has been for years.

 

[somegoodusername]

Assad forces may be in folly currently but they still have the number advantage on their side. HTS estimated to have around 20 thousand militants.

 

[Blackeyes90]

Huge news !if true !

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1862856756877046204

“Arab media reports that Russian troops are withdrawing from their base in Suqilabiya, to the Khmeimim airbase, in Syria.” The Russian Army is retreating in Syria? Russia’s army is cracking.

 

[dBSPL]

Assad forces may be in folly currently but they still have the number advantage on their side. HTS estimated to have around 20 thousand militants.

The Command of Military Operations was established with the participation of all rebel groups not just HTS (Russia's recent massacres of civilians have been a great motivator here). It is known that the number of trained militants actively participating in the operation is around 60,000, and videos from the field show that the level of equipment is widely good. The mobilisable manpower is probably more than double that, including the SNA.

 

[King_West]

The Command of Military Operations was established with the participation of all rebel groups not just HTS (Russia's recent massacres of civilians have been a great motivator here). It is known that the number of trained militants actively participating in the operation is around 60,000, and videos from the field show that the level of equipment is widely good. The mobilisable manpower is probably more than double that, including the SNA.

+ the numbers from opposition groups will rise a lot after liberating this much territory

 

[Blackeyes90]

CONFIRMED Syrian army withdraws from Hama en masse to Homs.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1862879185456206010

 

[uçuyorum]

Can anyone knowledgeable do a small summary of the situation so far?

 

[Afif]

Can anyone knowledgeable do a small summary of the situation so far?

@Kartal1 @Sanchez

i would also really appreciate that.

 

[Rooxbar]

If there's any sustainability here, the opposition forces will grow massively.

 

[Blackeyes90]

Rus Ordusu, Hama askeri havaalanından çekildi.
Russian Army retreated from Hava Airfield.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1862888450912915842

 

[Kartal1]

@Kartal1 @Sanchez

i would also really appreciate that.

Basically after Regime, HRE/PKK, Iranian militia and Russian attacks intensified to an unbearable level, after a long preparation the Fath Al-Mubeen operations room (consisting of HTS and units from the SNA deployed to Idlib) started an operation with the name "Deter the Aggression" with the aim (according to sources) of cleaning the western side of Aleppo from Regime and Iranian militia elements and prevent any further artillery and FPV drone attacks. Due to the fast collapse of the SAA they continued further and managed to advance deep into the city with just a couple of enclaves remaining. At the same time the Opposition forces attacked and captured different points that are on the M5 highway leading to Damascus and are currently pushing south towards Hama.

Not long after the Operation Deter the Aggression started, also another operation with the name "Dawn of Freedom" was started by the SNA in Operation Euphrates Shield area which aims at pushing south of Al-Bab and the opening of an alternative front aimed at Aleppo and Tal Rifat. Currently this new push also serves as a counter-measure for the Raqqa-Manbij-Aleppo PKK corridor that the PKK managed to establish due to the Regime transferring territories like the Kuwayris Airbase which is positioned just between Manbij and Aleppo.

The US is silent about the operation, Russia is bombing both the HTS controlled Idlib province and the SNA/Turkiye controlled areas in the north of Aleppo and the Iranians are threatening the forces participating in the operation including Turkiye. Turkiye is not directly involved in the operations.

Basically the situation looks more or less like this:

Orange: Regime and PKK joint control
Yellow: PKK control
Green: Opposition control
Blue: Newly gained territory by the Opposition

 

[Angry Turk !!!]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1862881584493334601

This is one example of what I mean when I say that the only thing that matters in this region is DEATH and DESTRUCTION. If you can give that in a good amount to your enemy, they will panic and all of a sudden come to talk...

 

[mehmed beg]

I am just waiting for the couple dozens Ukrainians to arrive with the long range drones to teach Moscovites a lesson.
It is coming to them. I am sure.
I heard that even primary school girls can ambush those sissies.

 

[Kartal1]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1862891873829847053

I am just waiting for the couple dozens Ukrainians to arrive with the long range drones to teach Moscovites a lesson.
It is coming to them. I am sure.
I heard that even primary school girls can ambush those sissies.

I have a version about the new "Shaheen" drone unit of the HTS

 

[Bosniak Revival]

Assad Regime is a paper tiger & very weak.

Iranian Militia's are in trouble after Israel dealt them a huge blow in Lebanon & Russia is too pre-occupied in Ukraine to go all in and help Assad like back in 2015-2020

This is like Taliban take over of Afghanistan all over again. Many Afghan citizens where like "whatever we ain't dying for this Western propped up Regime"

Same in Syria - many people are saying "we ain't gonna die for this Russian-Iranian backed barrel bombing captogon dealing monster"

You see things that are fake & propped up can only last so long. When the first cracks in the dam show it's only a matter of time before it completley breaks.

That's what we are witnessing here.

 

[dBSPL]

In european social media, the general interpretation is that RTE first offered Assad the hand of peace and then, when they refused to accept it, forced Assad to withdraw from Aleppo without losing a single soldier, even a meme about this has already become quite popular. Everyone, impartial or neutral, is trying to relate this operation to us, even though our official statements say exactly the opposite...

 

[Saithan]

For anything sustainable to come out of this there has to be some level of training and education of the militia. Plus planning and keeping an eye open for opportunities. If they want to hold what they've taken they'll need manpower for that, which is only doable by recruiting training soldiers while strategist fortify their positions.

Also not to fo get they need armament even Shorad stuff etc to be able to repel what might be tossed at them.

If we assume beaucracy is sustained after one side leaves the other takes over. Then it's only the military aspect that needs to be secured.

Imo TSK could have moved a chunky of forces close our desired objective to put psychological pressure on PKK