Live Conflict Syrian Civil War

dBSPL

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Assad Regime is a paper tiger & very weak.

Iranian Militia's are in trouble after Israel dealt them a huge blow in Lebanon & Russia is too pre-occupied in Ukraine to go all in and help Assad like back in 2015-2020

This is like Taliban take over of Afghanistan all over again. Many Afghan citizens where like "whatever we ain't dying for this Western propped up Regime"

Same in Syria - many people are saying "we ain't gonna die for this Russian-Iranian backed barrel bombing captogon dealing monster"

You see things that are fake & propped up can only last so long. When the first cracks in the dam show it's only a matter of time before it completley breaks.

That's what we are witnessing here.
There is no state, it is an illusion created by Russia. What is there is the Russian staff and air force and the Iranian paramilitary force. As soon as this protective shell shows weakness, the regime lacks the capacity and popular base to sustain itself. Just as the life of the YPG depends on the USA, the life of the regime depends on Russia. However, both powers have to withdraw sooner or later.
 

Kartal1

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For anything sustainable to come out of this there has to be some level of training and education of the militia. Plus planning and keeping an eye open for opportunities. If they want to hold what they've taken they'll need manpower for that, which is only doable by recruiting training soldiers while strategist fortify their positions.

Also not to fo get they need armament even Shorad stuff etc to be able to repel what might be tossed at them.

If we assume beaucracy is sustained after one side leaves the other takes over. Then it's only the military aspect that needs to be secured.

Imo TSK could have moved a chunky of forces close our desired objective to put psychological pressure on PKK
HTS has no problems in these regards. There is a serious popular dissatisfaction, but Julani manages it well. The Interim Government and SNA are in worst shape and really need what you purpose. One of the biggest factors for this operation to go so smoothly is the newly trained HTS fighters by the military academy they established a couple years back.

I was just about to comment about the access of MANPADS the fighters in Idlib have, but yeah... just take a look a couple posts above.
 

Lool

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In european social media, the general interpretation is that RTE first offered Assad the hand of peace and then, when they refused to accept it, forced Assad to withdraw from Aleppo without losing a single soldier, even a meme about this has already become quite popular. Everyone, impartial or neutral, is trying to relate this operation to us, even though our official statements say exactly the opposite...
Honestly though, if anyone believes that Turkey isnt involved at some level in this operation then he is an idiot

From the planning to the EW systems that prevented contact between Regime's forces in Aleppo with that of Damascus to the green light to the SNA to fight the emerging PKK forces

It is true that Erdogan got back hundreds of square kilometers without losing a single soldier but if he spared only a few TB2s or Ankas, then the gains would be triple the current outcome and that is why I wanna curse at Erdo.... like.... triple the gains man.... it makes me wanna scream ffs

Turkish generals are probably the ones who planned for this operation and they probably chose one of the best timings ever. Therefore, saying that Erdogan/Turkey gained a lot without losing a single soldier is actually true

Hell, thx to the lots of armaments left behind by the Assad forces, Erdogan wont even have to spend a dime to resupply what the turkish-backed rebels spent. It is rumored that the HTS alone got 30+ tanks for free
 
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Kitra

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In european social media, the general interpretation is that RTE first offered Assad the hand of peace and then, when they refused to accept it, forced Assad to withdraw from Aleppo without losing a single soldier, even a meme about this has already become quite popular. Everyone, impartial or neutral, is trying to relate this operation to us, even though our official statements say exactly the opposite...
Don't listen to what politicians and diplomats say, look for what they do on the ground.

SNA is a fully controlled Turkish asset. They're an integral part of the operations from the beginning. Hence, there is litterally zero posibility that Turkey is not involved in this operation.

For the question of why we don't use our air power. That would mean a direct confrontation with Russian airforce, whom control our gas supply, nuclear power plant and big part of our export/import. we simply dont want to shoot down their aircrafts. the optics on late nigth Russian TV would be bad.

Hence, we have absolutely nothing to gain by making Russia an open enemy. Loosing a few mercenaries is an acceptable loss for Turkey in order to keep the gas flow. There are behind the scenes negotiations with the Russians. some info has already come out, like HTS stating that Russia is not the enemy or that Russia keeps a distance to Assad. Most likely, they will keep the naval port and a few airbases.

Furthermore, the HTS/SNA could not even take land faster even if they wished as evacuation reports are coming from Tel Rifat, Membic and all the way to Homs/Homa. so there is no need for airforce at this point.

As a side note, Turkish electronic warfare is fully active as there are reports that indicate SAA radio is complely down. Again, a clear sign that Turkey is active as HTS or SNA don't have EW capabilities.

The silence from USA and EU is also indicating that this is a american operation to support Israel by hindering Iranian influence in the region. Luckily, it also fits our goals so we participate. However, it is uncertain if we will gain anything east of the river but i suspect the F35 talks is part of the overall plans.

In the long run, this is all about China. USA has been boged down in iraq, Afganistan, Ukraine and Middle East for the last 20 years. Americans don't have anotjer 10 years to waste if they intend to be the top power in the next decade.
 

Agha Sher

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First reports of uprising in South Syria. Seems like a total collapse, Homs is being abandoned as well - the revolution could enter Damascus in the next 72 hours.
 

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Rooxbar

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They shouldn't overextend, there might be plans to make them spread thin for the Hannibal pincer move in the Cannae; the way they are not mounting any defence in the center is reminding me of that shit.
 

Saithan

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We don't even need any excuse to drop MAM on PKK so loitering them around looking would have spoiled the enemy enough.
 

dBSPL

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