Well, could you please explain it for us who are interested? I really was out of touch on IS-K. Thought by and large they were done. Had no idea what was going on behind public eyes.
Let's start with the fact that IS is an international organization. They have many branches and supporters around the world. Just as the tradition of Al-Qaeda, IS is a global organization.
We know about ISIS and what was their situation in Iraq and Syria. According to sources they had more than 100.000 terrorists including tens of thousands of foreign fighters from all around the world. Many of these fighters are from countries that experienced totalitarian regimes, oppression against the Muslim communities and that helped ISIS sheikhs proliferate this malign ideology and gain support in such countries like the ex USSR States for example. We know that some of the major nationality groups of the foreign fighters in regions where Islamic State Caucasus Province (ISCP/IS-C) and ISKP have access to are Russian, Tajik, Uzbek, Turkish and less from countries like Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan or Turkmenistan. IS media is playing a crucial role for this as they are spreading propaganda in many of these languages breaking the language barrier.
ISKP, ISCP and Wilayah Turkiya have the biggest share regarding recruitment in the region. The loose border policy among the Turkic countries, the ease of visa conditions among the Turkic countries and Russia is helping a lot for easy migration. In the case of Turkiye we know that illegal migration is a serious problem and there are millions of illegal Afghans and Pakistanis in Turkiye next to the number of residents with citizenships from Central Asian countries. Many of those who are migrating freely have relationship with the relevant branches of IS and many who don't have relationship with IS will be contacted in the countries where they migrated, will be recruited and tasked, waiting for the right moment as lone wolves.
The core cadres of the IS terrorists in these countries is consisted by fighters that returned from Syria. After the IS fall in Iraq and Syria the fighters that had to retreat had to find a new base and what better place than Afghanistan. Remote areas, complicated security environment, access to countries like Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan and Tajikistan (the motherlands of many foreign fighters), access to countries like Pakistan, business opportunities (kidnaping), basically a country that waited to be conquered with thousands of possible followers from the region due to poverty, lack of education, lack of State authority and lack of life opportunities. Not only that, but the base for this project was already put with the existing old school ISKP core that consisted of Taliban, Al-Qaeda and whatever other filth comes to your mind at that time. All this scum came together and formed the ISKP. We are talking about weapons, money, trust, respect, hearts and minds, all that is needed to succeed. After these fighters formed the ISKP, after some ups and downs the ISKP slowly, but surely expanded and is currently present in if not all then the most of Afghanistan's provinces. Of course there's no way to succeed without the generous support of the IS-Central and the cooperation with other terrorist organizations from neighbouring countries in recruitment, logistical support and fundraising.
With the developments in recent years we witnessed how the center of IS moved to Afghanistan and the Sahel. The two major branches are ISKP and ISWAP. Both branches are successful in their way, but when we talk about global success and expansion we should note ISKP. ISKP's success in Afghanistan is thanks to small cells operating in non-permissive environment. Trough the last couple of years they are losing power in Afghanistan, but the brand is managing to expand abroad due to the factors that we listed above. The situation is very similar to how analysts explain Al-Qaeda in Lebanon which is not very recognized inside the country, but turned out it became a regional player and even a global brand recognized even in Pakistan. Currently ISKP (Afghanistan) is controlling terrorist cells in all its neighbouring countries, the EU, Russia, Turkiye, the Maldives and it is said that they play a major role in the reviving of the Islamic State India branch. ISKP claimed attacks in India in 2022 and currently the Indian special services are watching closely their activities. Clear example of the ISKP activities in India is an Indian national captured in Afghanistan this month, earlier traveled to Tajikistan not able to answer questions about the reason for his visit.
We already start to understand the reason behind ISKP's expansions to neighbouring countries, but how they reach Russia, the EU, where is the main logistics center? This is very unfortunate for me to say, but the main logistical center that is supporting their activities in this region is Turkiye. After the lack of success of Wilayah Turkiya ISKP took command of the IS activities in Turkiye. Turkiye is a hub where the ease for both illegal and legal migration from all over the world and mainly Afghanistan, Pakistan, Caucasus (north and south), Central Asia makes it perfect for growing such activities. Turkiye is in the center of procuring false documents, transferring of fighters and acquiring weapons and explosives for terrorist attacks. This is the place where all of the branches come together and cooperate face to face. I am 90% sure, but can't prove that the majority of people that took place in terrorism activities in Russia and the EU and which are of Turkic or Tajik descent at some point resided in Turkiye and they were either under ISKP/Wilayah Turkiya protection or were recruited in Turkiye and later tasked and sent wherever is needed. I wouldn't be shocked if the people involved in the terrorist attack in the Crocus City Hall also at some point resided in Turkiye. The situation is so serious that in 2023 ISKP set up a camp in a farm in Istanbul with the aim of training and dispatching terrorist to the US. Yes, to the US! Tens of terrorist attacks by ISKP are prevented yearly in Turkiye and intelligence supplied by the Turkish National Intelligence Organization helps with the prevention of terrorist attacks all over the world. Tens if not hundreds of people are deported yearly which have connections with IS. Together with these deportations, some are judged according to the law, biometric data and intelligence is gathered and shared with partner intelligence services all around the world. Even if that's the case this is simply not enough and the latest attacks are proving this point. Do you know what hurts me the most? It hurts me that the Turkish legal system is so flawed that we capture the terrorists, then the judges are releasing them and after years of "sleep" they return and hit. And we are talking about people of which some are with a criminal background or partner intelligence service already gave a report on them pointing out the danger.
Why ISKP is targeting Russia? Because Russia targeted IS all around the world. Even if IS branches are given big autonomy everything is controlled by the IS central and whatever happens in one part of the world can influence events in other part of the world. Russia targeted IS in Syria, they targeted IS in the Caucasus, they try to impose a sense of fear in the Central Asian countries bordering Afghanistan, trying everything possible to impose a stance where the border security of these countries is tied to the possible presence of Russian troops, they develop close relationship with the Taliban (ISKP biggest opponents in Afghanistan) and last, but not least the Russians made IS furious due to their involvement in Africa (Wagner). IS anti-Russia propaganda was always there, but it took a different level after the Taliban took control over Afghanistan. ISKP even attacked the Russian Embassy in Kabul in 2022. Since then both A'maq and local branches media from India to the Sahel pushed anti-Russian propaganda. And now after the focus of IS propaganda are the activities of IS in Africa, the Russians are in the spotlights more than ever. Or maybe we have to say "in the crosshairs" as target of priority number 1. IS wants to punish Russia and who can punish Russia better than the ISCP in coordination with ISKP? Due to the fact that ISKP is currently the global brand of IS they are receiving support from all around the world, even from the Sahel and the Maldives as I mentioned earlier. They try and try and try until they managed to hit at last. Earlier ISKP managed to hit in Pakistan, Iran, Turkiye and the latest before the attack in Moscow was an attack in Kandahar that took the life of at least 30 people. Who were they going to hit too? They were in preparation to hit the Parliament of Sweden before 2 of their fighters (Afghans) were arrested in Germany. They were going to hit targets in Turkiye before the local elections if not for MIT and the Turkish Police. What I am trying to explain with this is that ISKP don't have any limitations. They are the global brand of the Islamic State. They expand in foreign countries thousands of kilometers away from Afghanistan and attack whoever they think deserves punishment. Yesterday it was Russia, tomorrow it may be France, the Netherlands or China. They attack Turkiye because it is a secular country, Russia because of their fight against IS, the Talibans because of their close relationship with Russia, China because of their treatment of the Uyghurs, Sweden because burning the Holy Quran is legal, France because of their role in Africa, Netherlands just because they are infidels and we can continue with the lists for hours. ISKP is like an aggressive cancer that metastasize no matter the distance or direction and I am not sure how are we going to stop it from spreading taking in account the current environment in all the regions it exists and their problems.
Some people think that this came from nothing. No, it didn't came from nothing. There were many developments that led to this outcome including the overstretching of the Russian FSB due to the war with Ukraine. There were numerous cases from Russia pointing at rise of IS activity from 2023. There were numerous cases in Turkiye pointing at extreme level of organization of ISKP in Turkiye including Russian citizens (mainly Chechens). Also funny claims about that IS don't target Israel while in January this year Israeli security services captured 2 IS terrorists in Jerusalem planning an attack and in 2022 two IS terrorists opened fire at civilians at a bus stop in Hadera, killing 2 and injuring 12.
ISKP is very dangerous. Apart from IS central media structure ISKP media is covering developments in English, French, Somali, Swahili, Pashto, Urdu, Turkish, Spanish, Azerbaijani, Hausa, Bengali, Hindi, Farsi, Uzbek, Tajik, Russian, Dhivehi, Kurdish, Albanian and Tagalog languages. I think this is enough of a sign about what scale we are talking about.
