Turkey’s Air Force Is Obsolete, Warns New Study

[Vergennes]

Turkey’s air force is becoming obsolete, according to a new Turkish study.

“Turkey and the Turkish Air Force’s air warfare capabilities face a serious test over the next 10 to 20 years,” writes Can Kasapoglu, director of the security and defense program at Turkish think tank EDAM, who authored the report.

Kasapoglu describes the weakness of Turkish airpower as a “techno-generation problem.” The Turkish Air Force’s fourth-generation F-16s and third-generation F-4s – which are essentially Cold War aircraft – are reaching the end of their lifespans. Turkish plans to replace them with 100 fifth-generation F-35A stealth fighters have collapsed after Turkey was kicked out of the F-35 program amid U.S. anger over Turkey’s purchase of Russian S-400 anti-aircraft missiles. Meanwhile, Turkey’s rivals – including Greece and Israel – are receiving F-35s, or generation 4.5 fighters like France’s Rafale.

“If an intermediate solution is not found, Turkish air power will fall behind world trends,” Kasapoglu warns.

The report suggests that giving up the F-35 in favor of S-400 missiles was a bad bargain. “Turkey’s defense planning and national security requirements, are not suitable for a SAM-intensive force structure. The S-400 strategic SAM system, which has just entered the inventory of the Turkish Armed Forces, will not perform at the desired level due to the shortcomings in the network-centered architecture.”

Nor are armed drones a substitute for the F-35. Turkey has garnered a reputation as a drone power after Turkey-made TB2 and Israeli-made Harop drones decimated Armenian troops and armored vehicles during the 2020 Nagorno-Karabakh War. But EDAM rejects the idea that drones can substitute for advanced manned aircraft. “Although there is a potential for change within the scope of artificial intelligence and algorithmic warfare, air warfare parameters are still shaped around manned platforms.”

That leaves the TF-X project to develop a homegrown fifth-generation stealth fighter by 2029. But problems finding a suitable engine from overseas manufacturers “may extend the time needed to enter the inventory,” noted EDAM.

It’s not just Turkey’s air force that will feel the loss of the F-35. The loss jeopardizes the Turkish Navy’s plans for an amphibious assault ship – essentially a light aircraft carrier — equipped with short-takeoff and vertical landing F-35Bs, according to EDAM.

The study also warns of Turkish weakness in air and missiles defense. Turkish forces in northern Syria have been bombed by Syrian and Russian aircraft, while United Arab Emirates jets reportedly struck a Turkish airbase in Libya in 2020 after Turkish forces intervened in the Libyan civil war. “The air defense of the Turkish Armed Forces’ forward-deployed combat elements and cross-border bases is becoming an increasingly serious requirement in the lessons learned from the Libyan and Syrian experience,” says EDAM.

Turkey is also surrounded by nations with ballistic missiles, including Syria, Armenia, Iran and Russia. Even here, losing the F-35 is a problem: the stealth jet and its advanced sensors could play a vital role in missile defense, both as an interceptor and by conducting strikes against missile launchers, the study says.

The report makes clear that Turkey has only one real solution to maintain its airpower. “Turkey should return to its priority as the F-35 program. The mentioned policy advice is of great importance both for the combat capabilities of the Turkish Air Force and for the technological and economic gains and employment capacity of the Turkish defense industry.”

Turkey’s Air Force Is Obsolete, Warns New Study

America won't sell F-35 stealth fighters to Turkey. Can Turkey find a replacement?

www.forbes.com

What do members think ?

 

[Deliorman]

The article is right that Turkey’s Air Force is turning into a laughing stock which won’t be able to compete with its enemies anymore.

Yet Turkey would have never received the F-35s no matter what anyway... the S-400s were just a dumb excuse to kick Turkey out of the program. The Pentagon and all the Israeli, Greek, Armenian and Arab lobbies will never allow that to ever happen.

 

[Tsenal]

Aselsan's GaN Aesa radar for F-16 will be ready by 2022. There will likely be a major modernization program for Turkish F-16's.

 

[Raptor]

Imo Turkey should not place all cards on TFX,needs backup.
For example india would develop AMCA
If it does not becomes a good platform or does not even materialize
Then we would already have backup of tejas mk2 and TEDBF(ORCA as being airforce version)
Turkey should aim for another backup combat aircraft program or else purchase from òther countries.
This is why KAI went with a backup of initial version as downgraded stealth

 

[Quasar]

author has some points but he also ignores the major ones as well. Our air force does not only consist of F 16s or F 4s . when you are evaluating an air forece your assement should also take in to account the force multipliers and many other factors as well for instance peace eagle AEW&C or the re-fueling planes or Land, Air Sea based EW systems or what sort of pods you have or Özgür project F 16 modernization i.e Turkish Viper or your traning infrastructure like Antolian Eagle or your logistic infrastructure, weapon sockpiles, numbers locations and sizes of your airports and ı afraid I never heard a single word from any of these topics. I SEE NO REASON TO NOT SURVIVE TILL 2028 the year of MMU....... as a conclusion we are not in danger we are the danger

 

[Ryder]

Greeks believe all the Turkish pilots are Pakistanis

As if Pakistanis are bad pilots they are pretty good actually even better than overrated Greek pilots.

 

[TR_123456]

Turkey’s air force is becoming obsolete, according to a new Turkish study.

“Turkey and the Turkish Air Force’s air warfare capabilities face a serious test over the next 10 to 20 years,” writes Can Kasapoglu, director of the security and defense program at Turkish think tank EDAM, who authored the report.

Kasapoglu describes the weakness of Turkish airpower as a “techno-generation problem.” The Turkish Air Force’s fourth-generation F-16s and third-generation F-4s – which are essentially Cold War aircraft – are reaching the end of their lifespans. Turkish plans to replace them with 100 fifth-generation F-35A stealth fighters have collapsed after Turkey was kicked out of the F-35 program amid U.S. anger over Turkey’s purchase of Russian S-400 anti-aircraft missiles. Meanwhile, Turkey’s rivals – including Greece and Israel – are receiving F-35s, or generation 4.5 fighters like France’s Rafale.

“If an intermediate solution is not found, Turkish air power will fall behind world trends,” Kasapoglu warns.

The report suggests that giving up the F-35 in favor of S-400 missiles was a bad bargain. “Turkey’s defense planning and national security requirements, are not suitable for a SAM-intensive force structure. The S-400 strategic SAM system, which has just entered the inventory of the Turkish Armed Forces, will not perform at the desired level due to the shortcomings in the network-centered architecture.”

Nor are armed drones a substitute for the F-35. Turkey has garnered a reputation as a drone power after Turkey-made TB2 and Israeli-made Harop drones decimated Armenian troops and armored vehicles during the 2020 Nagorno-Karabakh War. But EDAM rejects the idea that drones can substitute for advanced manned aircraft. “Although there is a potential for change within the scope of artificial intelligence and algorithmic warfare, air warfare parameters are still shaped around manned platforms.”

That leaves the TF-X project to develop a homegrown fifth-generation stealth fighter by 2029. But problems finding a suitable engine from overseas manufacturers “may extend the time needed to enter the inventory,” noted EDAM.

It’s not just Turkey’s air force that will feel the loss of the F-35. The loss jeopardizes the Turkish Navy’s plans for an amphibious assault ship – essentially a light aircraft carrier — equipped with short-takeoff and vertical landing F-35Bs, according to EDAM.

The study also warns of Turkish weakness in air and missiles defense. Turkish forces in northern Syria have been bombed by Syrian and Russian aircraft, while United Arab Emirates jets reportedly struck a Turkish airbase in Libya in 2020 after Turkish forces intervened in the Libyan civil war. “The air defense of the Turkish Armed Forces’ forward-deployed combat elements and cross-border bases is becoming an increasingly serious requirement in the lessons learned from the Libyan and Syrian experience,” says EDAM.

Turkey is also surrounded by nations with ballistic missiles, including Syria, Armenia, Iran and Russia. Even here, losing the F-35 is a problem: the stealth jet and its advanced sensors could play a vital role in missile defense, both as an interceptor and by conducting strikes against missile launchers, the study says.

The report makes clear that Turkey has only one real solution to maintain its airpower. “Turkey should return to its priority as the F-35 program. The mentioned policy advice is of great importance both for the combat capabilities of the Turkish Air Force and for the technological and economic gains and employment capacity of the Turkish defense industry.”

Turkey’s Air Force Is Obsolete, Warns New Study

America won't sell F-35 stealth fighters to Turkey. Can Turkey find a replacement?

www.forbes.com

What do members think ?

What we have will be sufficient enough for the next 10 to 15 years and by then,first the Hürjet and later the TFX will be in our inventory.
He calls the Air and missile defense as weak,Hisar A,O,O+,S-400 and the almost ready Siper are more then enough.
Our neighbours have BM's but lack the rest,no real danger there.
As for Russia,why would Russia risk war with a NATO(article 5) country?
This guy doesnt know what he is talking about.

 

[TR_123456]

Greeks believe all the Turkish pilots are Pakistanis

As if Pakistanis are bad pilots they pretty good actually even better than overrated Greek pilots.

They are top three in the world(wish we had some).

 

[Cabatli_TR]

• F16 Özgür avionic + structural upgrade program
• Hürjet light fighter aircraft
• TfX 5th generation aircraft program
• 3 different 4+Mach A2A missile program
• Various type of AG munition and cruise missile programs
• 3 AESA radar program for different platforms
• Aksungur long endurance naval drone + Akinci long endurance bomber drone
• 2 unmanned fighter drone and 1 wingman drone program
• Hisar-A+, O+, Rf, U(100km), Siper(~150km) and anti-ballistic missile defence programs and Land based Gokdoğan missiles
• Land based long range and very long range radar programs

How can the inventory of a country developing all these items will be obsolete, while developing all of them simultaneously? Some of these programs came to end of their development period and we will see their roll-out or delivery ceremonies.

 

[Oublious]

And the person who write about it is Turkish, wher the fak do you live?

 

[KKF 2.0]

"Turkey and the Turkish Air Force’s air warfare capabilities face a serious test over the next 10 to 20 years"

Literally every single airforce in Europe is facing this 'test'.

 

[mulj]

IF MIUS enters the inventory in 2025 not that turkish air force is obselite, it suddenly becomes most potent one in region.

 

[Merzifonlu]

If our air force were based solely on f-16s and f-4 planes, the person who wrote it would be right. But a paradigm shift is happening right now. We are getting ready to wage air wars on air combat drones.

We only had an engine problem, as an obstacle before us, it no longer a problem. Even if the TFX and Hürjet are not in service, we will have a deadly air force if we consider the modernized F-16 aircraft integrated into loyal wingman drones and air combat drones.

Because our entire AESA&drone&missile set will be ready.

 

[Merzifonlu]

When it comes to ballistic missile defense and the sensors on the F-35, there is an unashamed hypocrisy here!

If you are going to do ballistic missile defense, you must have a Anti Balistic Missile System in addition to the integrated sensor network.

As far as I remember, let alone the THAAD System, even a normal Patriot System was offered an exorbitant price. President Trump has even admitted it, not just me.

At this point, we can set up that integrated sensor network cheaper on Akıncı and Aksungur drones. Also we have already started the Siper&GUMS Anti Ballistic Missile Program.

 

[Philip the Arab]

IF MIUS enters the inventory in 2025 not that turkish air force is obselite, it suddenly becomes most potent one in region.

Israel will always be the best in the region in my opinion.

 

[mulj]

Israel will always be the best in the region in my opinion.

Yes, as long as usa provides, but with this artificail operated assets, they will simply loose in numbers, in long run they will face the same with conventional airframes.

 

[Sinan]

This made me remember all those articles about how The post-coup purge crippled TUAF.

​

Yet, TuAF opened the curtains for Afrin Operation with 100+ Aircraft on the air simultaneously. Also, listening to experts, i feel like abandoning the F-35 program might be the best thing ever happened to our Airforce.

 

[Deliorman]

This made me remember all those articles about how The post-coup purge crippled TUAF.

​

Yet, TuAF opened the curtains for Afrin Operation with 100+ Aircraft on the air simultaneously. Also, listening to experts, i feel like abandoning the F-35 program might be the best thing ever happened to our Airforce.

Come on bro, don’t tell me that this video doesn’t make your heart beat faster like in the good old days.

The F-35 is like the girl you loved with all of your heart and who knew how to make you lose your mind... but who cheated on you. You hate her, you try to always tell yourself how much better you are without her, what a bitch she was... but deep inside yourself you know that you are addicted to her.

Yaktın beni Ameriga...

 

[bsruzm]

The article is right that Turkey’s Air Force is turning into a laughing stock

I don't think Greek decision makers are laughing =)

 

[Nilgiri]

Turkey is in process of developing, growing and refining some potent ecosystems. It has developed lot of good capacities and capabilities already.

I do not see it going "obsolete", there might be some diminishment (readiness of squadrons etc) during transition change into next generations of aircraft given sanction regimes and Turkish push for autarky there in response.....but obsolete is very extreme word to use.

There will also anyway naturally be some cross-over of any gap (and affected deterrence) by larger commensurate capacities in other service branches (army, Navy) w.r.t likely state-based concrete (i.e professional military) threats.

It certainly will not become obsolete anyway in the most likeliest frequent uses/scenarios in Turkey's neighbourhood (generally non-state or state proxies).