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https://www.ft.com/content/3c3d1600-1001-4239-9f97-c65ec94e8ac5
Turkey has made a big discovery of natural gas in the Black Sea, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan claimed, as he hailed the find as a historic step for the country’s troubled economy and its energy security. Mr Erdogan said that exploration by Turkey’s state-owned petroleum company had found 320bn cubic metres of gas — the largest in the country’s history. He said that he hoped that production would begin as soon as 2023. “As a country that has suffered problems for years as a result of our dependence on foreign energy sources, I believe that we can now look to the future with greater confidence,” Mr Erdogan said. He added that Ankara would also accelerate its efforts to find gas in the eastern Mediterranean, where it is embroiled in a bitter dispute with Greece and Cyprus over sharing of hydrocarbon resources. Analysts responded to the announcement with caution but said the size of the provisional find would be significant if it proved to be commercially viable. “This is an estimate based on just a discovery well that will need to be confirmed by further drilling of appraisal wells,” said Ashley Sherman at Wood Mackenzie. “But it is still likely Turkey’s largest ever discovery by some margin, and the largest ever in the Black Sea. That has potentially huge implications for Turkey’s energy supplies and the narrative around the deepwater potential of the Black Sea.” Jonathan Lamb at Wood & Company said having production up and running within three years seemed very optimistic, with the Black Sea lacking in widely developed energy infrastructure. “I suspect five years is the best you can hope for,” Mr Lamb said. “They may be able to attract an international oil major as they have essentially a captive market for the gas sales, but the tone around this discovery is very nationalistic so I suspect they may try to go it alone.” Recommended The FT ViewThe editorial board Defusing tensions in the eastern Mediterranean Energy imports are the most important component of Turkey’s chronic current account deficit, which has been a persistent source of financial instability for the country over the past decade. Last year, its energy import bill stood at $41bn. Its suppliers include Russia, Iran and Azerbaijan as well as Qatar and the US. The size of the field, if confirmed, would be about 40 per cent as large as Egypt’s supergiant Zohr field that was discovered in the eastern Mediterranean in 2015. Berat Albayrak, Turkey’s finance minister and Mr Erdogan’s son-in-law, said the find would enable Turkey to eliminate its current account deficit. The announcement came as Mr Albayrak and other policymakers have struggled to combat mounting concern about the health of the country’s economy, with the lira hitting a series of record lows against the dollar in August. The currency had rallied as much as 3 per cent in recent days after Mr Erdogan hinted at “good news” and media reports suggested an energy find as large as 800bn cubic metres. The lira ended the day down 0.7 per cent after the president spoke. Sinem Adar, a researcher at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs in Berlin, said that Turkey’s leadership was deeply committed to efforts to make the country less reliant on energy imports. But she said that the timing of the announcement and the hype around it appeared to partly stem from the need to create some “excitement” to distract from economic problems. She added that it also seemed to be an effort to bolster the reputation of Mr Albayrak, who was given a prominent role in the live coverage. “He has been on the spot due to the devaluation [of the lira],” Ms Adar said. “So partially I think it’s about repairing his image.”
https://www.ft.com/content/3c3d1600-1001-4239-9f97-c65ec94e8ac5
Turkey has made a big discovery of natural gas in the Black Sea, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan claimed, as he hailed the find as a historic step for the country’s troubled economy and its energy security. Mr Erdogan said that exploration by Turkey’s state-owned petroleum company had found 320bn cubic metres of gas — the largest in the country’s history. He said that he hoped that production would begin as soon as 2023. “As a country that has suffered problems for years as a result of our dependence on foreign energy sources, I believe that we can now look to the future with greater confidence,” Mr Erdogan said. He added that Ankara would also accelerate its efforts to find gas in the eastern Mediterranean, where it is embroiled in a bitter dispute with Greece and Cyprus over sharing of hydrocarbon resources. Analysts responded to the announcement with caution but said the size of the provisional find would be significant if it proved to be commercially viable. “This is an estimate based on just a discovery well that will need to be confirmed by further drilling of appraisal wells,” said Ashley Sherman at Wood Mackenzie. “But it is still likely Turkey’s largest ever discovery by some margin, and the largest ever in the Black Sea. That has potentially huge implications for Turkey’s energy supplies and the narrative around the deepwater potential of the Black Sea.” Jonathan Lamb at Wood & Company said having production up and running within three years seemed very optimistic, with the Black Sea lacking in widely developed energy infrastructure. “I suspect five years is the best you can hope for,” Mr Lamb said. “They may be able to attract an international oil major as they have essentially a captive market for the gas sales, but the tone around this discovery is very nationalistic so I suspect they may try to go it alone.” Recommended The FT ViewThe editorial board Defusing tensions in the eastern Mediterranean Energy imports are the most important component of Turkey’s chronic current account deficit, which has been a persistent source of financial instability for the country over the past decade. Last year, its energy import bill stood at $41bn. Its suppliers include Russia, Iran and Azerbaijan as well as Qatar and the US. The size of the field, if confirmed, would be about 40 per cent as large as Egypt’s supergiant Zohr field that was discovered in the eastern Mediterranean in 2015. Berat Albayrak, Turkey’s finance minister and Mr Erdogan’s son-in-law, said the find would enable Turkey to eliminate its current account deficit. The announcement came as Mr Albayrak and other policymakers have struggled to combat mounting concern about the health of the country’s economy, with the lira hitting a series of record lows against the dollar in August. The currency had rallied as much as 3 per cent in recent days after Mr Erdogan hinted at “good news” and media reports suggested an energy find as large as 800bn cubic metres. The lira ended the day down 0.7 per cent after the president spoke. Sinem Adar, a researcher at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs in Berlin, said that Turkey’s leadership was deeply committed to efforts to make the country less reliant on energy imports. But she said that the timing of the announcement and the hype around it appeared to partly stem from the need to create some “excitement” to distract from economic problems. She added that it also seemed to be an effort to bolster the reputation of Mr Albayrak, who was given a prominent role in the live coverage. “He has been on the spot due to the devaluation [of the lira],” Ms Adar said. “So partially I think it’s about repairing his image.”
