TECHINT Turkey's Nuclear Weapons Development Projects

[No Name]

There is a country in the region that independently possesses these nuclear weapons of mass destruction and has the capability to use them independently, and this country has had this capability not now but probably for more than years. You won't find a politician or a journalist in the world who emphasizes how big a risk this country poses, it's not even mentioned in forums like this, but when someone says something about the 'balance of terror' against this risk, it's perceived as a declaration of intent, which is a result of very deliberate perception management.

Not Turkey but Turkiye, btw.

yes, you are right, there is a double standard, but without economic power, you can't do anything about it so best to shut up and not make a scene till you have the economic power to stand on your own two feet.

 

[Zafer]

yes, you are right, there is a double standard, but without economic power, you can't do anything about it so best to shut up and not make a scene till you have the economic power to stand on your own two feet.

You can't wait until you become totally independent in economy. Those who want to sanction you for having nukes will also be at loss trying to stand in your way. Especially when they are the actual threat towards you and you want to protect yourself from them. You need to bite the bullet and brave yourself into power. There is no soft way into it. We are near critical mass to tip over toward being a stand alone power.

 

[Angry Turk !!!]

Türkiye needs Nukes, stop arguing against it.

 

[Heartbang]

I personally think it is better to concentrate on economic grain rather than the military as a good economy is another form of deterrent.

Nukes are the only incorruptible form of legitimacy. Anything else can be subverted.

Good economy? You can gather a bunch of retards from r/wallstreetbets to "hold the stock" and wreck your monetary balance.
Functioning democracy? All it takes is a bunch of disgruntled oathkeepers to march into your legislation house and that's done for.
Cultural dominance? Nothing against a bunch of stuffy Gramsciist screenwriters who LOVE the sound their mouths make when they speak!

We are on the verge of a new world order that brings upon us two choices. Get nukes or get fucked.

 

[YeşilVatan]

Nukes are the only incorruptible form of legitimacy. Anything else can be subverted.

Good economy? You can gather a bunch of retards from r/wallstreetbets to "hold the stock" and wreck your monetary balance.
Functioning democracy? All it takes is a bunch of disgruntled oathkeepers to march into your legislation house and that's done for.
Cultural dominance? Nothing against a bunch of stuffy Gramsciist screenwriters who LOVE the sound their mouths make when they speak!

We are on the verge of a new world order that brings upon us two choices. Get nukes or get fucked.

Also; delivery systems. Nuclear submarines, ICBMs, Bomber planes, military bases.

 

[GoatsMilk]

Just over Syria we had america and russia threaten war against us, two nuclear powers. Isreal is at odds with us another nuclear power and the fanatical shia shia regime of iran wants nuclear weapons.

It would be negligent for Turkiye not to obtain such means.

The only issue is can they be obtained without being destroyed or ruined in the process. That's all that stops most of the world looking to obtain them.

I've said it before that the main reason Turkiye needs nuclear weapons is to deter Russia. Russia is the kind of country that doesnt need to obtain public sentiment and its people have little humanity, they could use a nuke at the click of the fingers. The Americans on the hand would have to go into absolute overdrive and for decades before they could convince their public to nuke Turkiye. Sometimes i wonder if the relentless dehumanisation of the Turks in the american media is a gradual move towards this.

 

[GoatsMilk]

And truth be told you can't sit and watch the americans support the PKK and not wonder if the americans intend to directly attack Turkiye one day. We already had Trump threaten Turkey directly, the military men saying that if we hit the ypg in syria that our troops would become legit targets. Then once Turkiye moved and the americans threats turned out to be bluffs, they made sure to hand over the ypg infested lands to Russia to stop Turkiye. While all this is happening with a daily properganda campaign conducted against Turkiye to dehumanise the entire Turkish race conducted by american and european media.

So we are being pushed into this. It would be negligent not to look into these things, because nothing else will keep the Americans honest. If Turkiye has the means to level the USA should they attack Turkiye, they won't dare do it.

Nuclear weapons is like the great equaliser for much smaller powers. It levels the playing field considerably.

 

[Agha Sher]

When you can reach US mainland then you're safe. For Turkiye this is around 8000km - effectively putting Boston, New York and Philly under fire.

 

[Afif]

When you can reach US mainland then you're safe. For Turkiye this is around 8000km - effectively putting Boston, New York and Philly under fire.

Just reaching US mainland would not be enough.

First and foremost, US has hundreds of GBI and AEGIS BMD interceptors which can shoot down ICBMs. And these numbers will only increase in the future.

So, Turkey will need effective delivery systems that can overcome US defenses.

Secondly, Turkey will need survivable second strike capability, which is more harder to develop.

 

[Agha Sher]

Just reaching US mainland would not be enough.

First and foremost, US has hundreds of GBI and AEGIS BMD interceptors which can shoot down ICBMs. And these numbers will only increase in the future.

So, Turkey will need effective delivery systems that can overcome US defenses.

Secondly, Turkey will need survivable second strike capability, which is more harder to develop.

Yes and no. Look at North Korea - they have 10 nukes and a very unreliable delivery system. However, since they could technically get lucky with striking US mainland, nobody can touch them.

 

[Heartbang]

First and foremost, US has hundreds of GBI and AEGIS BMD interceptors which can shoot down ICBMs.

GBI's work with 55% efficiency at the best of times thanks to Bush Jr. A single saturation attack will do them in.
AEGIS BMD is a much more competent system, but their coverage is limited to their station spots. They're good for watching one nuclear superpower, not all of them.

 

[Chocopie]

Hm, some people here are going MAD. Nuclear strike capabilities against USA? Ankara ain‘t Pyongyang! Turkey being part of NATO and Western bloc anyone?

If wanted Türkiye needs a regional nuclear deterrence against adversaries like Russia, Iran and Israel. That‘s about it IMO.

 

[Afif]

Yes and no. Look at North Korea - they have 10 nukes and a very unreliable delivery system. However, since they could technically get lucky with striking US mainland, nobody can touch them.

No body is touching them because they are doing nothing. if they invade South what you think is gonna happen?
What north Korea has is deterrence against invasion. given there is a little chance that, they can put American Mainland at risk US wont take the unnecessary risk to invade them. However, if they really try to do something aggressive, you will see how it will work out for them

GBI's work with 55% efficiency at the best of times thanks to Bush Jr. A single saturation attack will do them in.
AEGIS BMD is a much more competent system,

In articles, people all the time quote this 55% success rate which can be quite misleading.

In reality it is the sum of all tests. Obviously, the first prototypes which less advanced and less reliable.
however, US spent tens of billion since then. and the interception rate improved a lot.
Anyway, for now GBI is not set up to defend attack from the East.

AEGIS BMD is a much more competent system, but their coverage is limited to their station spots. They're good for watching one nuclear superpower, not all of them.

Not really, around a dozen AEGIS destroyers in Atlantic and another dozen in pacific will do the job.
And also, i am not talking about all nuclear powers striking US mainland in the same time, which is very unrealistic.

 

[Agha Sher]

Are they doing nothing?

1. They are regularly launching missiles over SK and Japan (key US allies with military bases)
2. They imprison, torture and kill US citizens at will
3. They frequently strike SK with artillery shells and rockets (incl killing South Koreans)
4. They supply all US enemies with military technology and weapons

What more do you want them to do?

 

[Afif]

Are they doing nothing?

1. They are regularly launching missiles over SK and Japan (key US allies with military bases)

missile test over the airspace of japan and South Korea is rare.

2. They imprison, torture and kill US citizens at will

Very minor incidents, and so does some other countries. which is definitely not a good reason for starting a war.

3. They frequently strike SK with artillery shells and rockets (incl killing South Koreans)

Again, minor stuff.

4. They supply all US enemies with military technology and weapons

So, does Iran. And on much greater level. did US invaded the Iranian mainland? And they are not even nuclear power. AS i said non of these good enough reasons to start an invasion.
Anyway, the thread is derailing.

 

[Agha Sher]

missile test over the airspace of japan and South Korea is rare.


Very minor incidents, and so does some other countries. which is definitely not a good reason for starting a war.

Again, minor stuff.

So, does Iran. And on much greater level. did US invaded the Iranian mainland? And they are not even nuclear power. AS i said non of these good enough reasons to start an invasion.
Anyway, the thread is derailing.

your definition of “rare” and “minor” is messed up

 

[Afif]

your definition of “rare” and “minor” is messed up

Nope, you are just overexaggerating things.

Why dont count up how many time north Korea fired missile over the mainland of japan or South?
Or how many US citizens North Koreans killed over the last decade?

 

[Heartbang]

In articles, people all the time quote this 55% success rate which can be quite misleading.

In reality it is the sum of all tests. Obviously, the first prototypes which less advanced and less reliable.
however, US spent tens of billion since then. and the interception rate improved a lot.
Anyway, for now GBI is not set up to defend attack from the East.

They spent billions to make more of them, so they could launch two per warhead.
On paper it is sound. Just like British decolonization plans

I stumbled upon this report on US missile defense prepared by Government Accountability Office. (https://www.gao.gov/assets/gao-11-555t.pdf) Here's what it says about the GMD(GBI) program:

GMD continues to deliver assets before testing has fully determined their capabilities and limitations. The Director, MDA testified on March 31, 2011 that he considers the GMD interceptors are essentially prototypes. In the urgency to deploy assets to meet the Presidential directive to field an initial capability by 2004, assets were built and deployed before developmental testing was completed. During the ongoing developmental testing, issues were found that led to a need for retrofits. GMD intercept tests conducted to date have already led to major hardware or software changes to the interceptors—not all of which have been verified through flight testing. In addition, manufacturing of a new variant called the Capability Enhancement II is well underway and more than half of those variants have already been delivered although their capability has not been validated through developmental flight tests. To date, the two flight tests utilizing this variant have both failed to intercept the target. According to MDA, as a result of the most recent failure in December 2010, deliveries of this variant have been halted.

In short, its a rush-job, and it doesn't work. Thanks Bush.

As for the Aegis BMD, I found this report (https://www.gao.gov/assets/gao-21-314.pdf) who had this to say about SM-3 BlockIIA's which are designed to shoot down ICBMs.

ICBM intercepts are more challenging than the IRBM intercepts for which the SM-3 IIA was originally designed. MDA’s most recent attempt to create a system for intercepting ICBMs, known as the Redesigned Kill Vehicle (RKV), re-used some parts from the SM-3 Block IIA. DOD cancelled the RKV before it could complete development after significant cost and schedule overruns and questions about the ability of the design to overcome specific performance risks. Parts re-used from the SM-3 Block IIA were implicated in some of the RKV’s performance shortfalls. Even so, planning for an anti-ICBM capability for the SM-3 Block IIA continued during and even after the RKV’s termination. Achieving such a capability will require surmounting several challenges. According to MDA, during the November 2020 flight test named FTM-44, the SM-3 Block IIA struck a simple ICBM target. This was not an operational test, however, and it was executed under highly favorable conditions. More development work is needed for the SM-3 Block IIA to support a layered homeland defense capability. MDA documents show that the agency now plans to develop and procure an upgraded version of the SM-3 Block IIA for the specific purpose of fulfilling the homeland defense mission.

So the effectiveness of this missile is also highly dubious. Also:

...However, the program only delivered 5 of 11 planned SM-3 Block IIA interceptors due to the need to investigate and remediate an anomaly with the interceptor’s thruster detected during flight test FTI-03. The first two SM-3 Block IIA interceptors that the program delivered for the year—a primary and spare—were necessary to complete the flight test FTM-44.

Not only they aren't certain of the effectiveness of the missile that they rely on for countering ICBM's, but they also DONT EVEN HAVE IT/CANT EVEN MAKE THE BLOODY THING.

Add this to the fact that the US AEGIS fleet being already stretched thin covering for Japan, SK and USA simultaneously, and the relief effort not coming until 2030's with DDG(X) because of US Navy's scuffed procurement practices (remember Independence-class LCS?) and you'll understand why the US right now is simply not capable of protecting itself and its allies from a coordinated ICBM strike from Russia and China.

Don't get high on American propaganda.

 

[Afif]

As for the Aegis BMD, I found this report (https://www.gao.gov/assets/gao-21-314.pdf) who had this to say about SM-3 BlockIIA's which are designed to shoot down ICBMs.

So the effectiveness of this missile is also highly dubious. Also:

Not really, the system still is in development, you dont expect its first test firing to be performed in unfavorable condition. Nor do you expect it to be the operational test firing.
But, needless to say the result was very promising.
It will take decade or so for SM 3 interceptors to become operational in meaningful numbers.

Not only they aren't certain of the effectiveness of the missile that they rely on for countering ICBM's, but they also DONT EVEN HAVE IT/CANT EVEN MAKE THE BLOODY THING.

No offense, but you cant really derived decisive conclusions about these high end strategic programs from unclassified documents.

Don't get high on American propaganda.

I am not.

 

[YeşilVatan]

Hm, some people here are going MAD. Nuclear strike capabilities against USA? Ankara ain‘t Pyongyang! Turkey being part of NATO and Western bloc anyone?

If wanted Türkiye needs a regional nuclear deterrence against adversaries like Russia, Iran and Israel. That‘s about it IMO.

A large part of Turkish public, which includes significant portion of the security apparatus, believe US has a secret agenda to deliberately target Turkish territorial integrity i.e. establish kurdistan. I don't believe things are that straightforward. No dark room conspiring. It's just that the small things converge on that outcome. Think tank analysts publish a report, a new crisis pops up, americans F. us over in another defence project... These things lead us to believe that US *will* try to break this country apart in the coming 10-20 years.

Turkey needs to be able to make it very, very, very costly to attack it directly. Then we pick apart their proxies.