Interesting thread and discussion... I am going to be as frank as possible in my responses.
Erdogan brand of politics is very politics-first...almost to exclusion of everything else.
Maybe early on he figured he wouldn't be in power this long, because there was great window for him to put in good long term reforms + cultivate/expand the related institutions for Turkish economy (when it was doing well in 2000s) and that would have set great bedrock for Turkey in 2010 decade and this new decade.
The second thing he did was the foreign policy sphere, he should have focused on a few items of high significance to Turkey and rationalise the best alliance he can organise for those....both to harness and deploy concretely.
Instead because of more short-term oriented politics game, he got hands into too many pies at same time...now its a big mess and I frankly do not see easy way for Turkey to extricate and consolidate here.
The thing helping Turkey though (past the Erdogan or any other politician follies) is it has solid sound basis on lot of things that it did fairly well to organise+setup under Ataturk and then further build up on during the cold war era for the basic economic institutional bulk and knowledge base.
This has soundly not been done for Pakistan in any appreciable way. That is the big difference.
Pakistan's big fundamental problem is one that has grown and set in for nearly 50 years now.
There is near unchallenge-able power concentrated in the military-driven "deep state" especially after results with wars with India in 65 and then 71.
This has put the whole psychology (of those in position to be and direct the "elite" both inherited and cultivated with time) on one of largely paranoid survival mode given the Giant neighbour complex....one it has an active sizeable and fundamental
populated territory dispute too...and element of a historical animosity construct intermeshing with the root-identity in various ways too.
A worthy hypothetical parallel may be situation in North America today if say:
a) USA didnt fully liberate itself from British in 1775 - 1783 in their first revolution and situation downstream is not clean break and thus inherits major animosity
-and/or-
b) CSA managed to win the civil war (or achieve its main objectives) and there are two countries downstream inheriting a former union construct tarred by a later partition and all the animosity and likely territory disputes that entails.
On another forum I already brought up a few times as well....what would it have looked like in modern terms if the 100 years war (between England and France over all kind of territories on mainland France given the major fundamental inheritor/succession disputes essentially caused by William I originally being a Norman duke).....was fought today. That would in my opinion (given the brutality and duration of this war) take on hue and stripe much more violent and intense than anything India and Pakistan can really entail....but anyway I digress given the lapse of time and larger philosophical thought and sustenance on the idea of war and humanity in the world from then to today.
What I would like to summarise is that Pakistan has hemmed and cocooned itself into (imo) a very destructive (to itself) way of having a nation-state (and maybe grown too accustomed/dependent on it), though one maybe cannot blame its predicament too much on itself....maybe any country in same set of inherited/created circumstances (in early-mid 20th century where this was all set into major motion) faces the same...but that is another subject.
In my estimation, Pakistan has to likely have to have a major rethink on the goals and objectives of existing as a country. Then and only then will it really commit to building institutions in enough number and intensity to long term gestate the knowledge base needed to compete economically in the 21st century to develop and enrich enough of its people.
Otherwise everything (or at least too much) just gets siphoned off to the psychology of holding the fort at any cost..and enriching the cabal that can sell and sustain this narrative the most among enough of the larger mass of people....in such a way that alternatives are often silenced.
I can name you 3 - 4 Pakistani people on certain forum we know, that get silenced there when they bring up their personal strife (with evidence) with this cabal...be it business dealings or land/housing development projects. I have seen the urdu conversations myself.
This situation is simply too detrimental to any country...without fixing it, it cannot steer itself, it gets steered by others...whomever can assuage this cabal with "protection" and "access" to certain things geopolitically and militarily for say a chunk of 10 , 20 or however many years promised. The longer term rational impact on its larger people does not really enter the negotiation and discussion on these at all.
Yes, but it requires Pakistan to be truly independent in its approach. Only with that is there a genuine pragmatism developed with core (and rational+sustainable) interests put first to guide a country to better more secure future that will truly mesh with worthy alliances in good faith/brotherhood etc.
But right now there is a large dissonance in what it wants to do/claim and the actual psychology that has been developed by its elite/power centres inside. I do not see it going away in my lifetime....and possibly this whole century.
China benefits lot more than Pakistan tbh.
Pakistan doggedly refuses to develop and invest into two things: knowledge + realised production.
Largely because these two things run somewhat antithetical to concept of a power-cabal having large diktat and micro-control over such things....because you have to be bold enough to have enough leverages developed among other power/development/narrative centres.
This is precisely why Pakistan does not invest nearly anything into fixed capital to the rate and duration needed to breakout into better tiers of modern economy. That is like the first basic step (to gain the capital needed then to better invest into knowledge base for more) and its just not being done. Someone is too scared of doing this and all kind of excuses and political musical chairs and bickering are done instead.
PTI under PMIK have done very little reform past what the cabal simply transmitted as basic minimum now to stay afloat (in reactionary way from the earlier mistakes under PMLN admin, which did its reactionary stuff to the PPP admin, which did so for musharraf era and so on)....and keep the larger patron model (now PRC filling it) undisturbed because it is simplest to organise, preserve and guarantee said cabal.
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There is lot more to respond to in everyones posts later. Will get back to it later.
@Saiyan0321 @Joe Shearer
