TR UAV/UCAV Programs | Anka - series | Kızılelma | TB - series

[boredaf]

That would be Anka 4.

Probably, yeah. Unless they want to go for something more like a fighter and less like a stealth bomber.

 

[boredaf]

It has to be a bomber,ever seen a fighter in that shape/form(triangle,nothing stickig out)?

Only China's J-36 while flying so far. That's something else, of course. What I meant was unless they want to make Anka-4 a fighter instead of a bomber. Imagine a bomb truck drone built around a single TF35K with massive internal weapon bays. But, a bigger Anka-3 that could carry more payload would obviously be great.

 

[KhanOfEurasia]

Turkey's 2045 Strategic Air Power: Intercontinental Deterrence (Part 1)​

In the face of potential threats to national interests at distances of 3,000-10,000 km, possessing intercontinental strike capability is no longer a ‘nice-to-have’ but a ‘must-have’ strategic necessity in today's world.

This article examines Turkey's strategic air power capabilities, which it will develop by 2045, particularly in the context of intercontinental bombing capabilities. Turkey's growing strategic influence over Africa, the Middle East and the Balkans necessitates the projection of long-range deterrent power. Leadership in unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) technology, the evolutionary development of the ANKA family of platforms and domestic engine production capacity play a critical role in achieving this strategic goal.

Introduction: The New Geopolitical Reality​

The economic and technological advances achieved by the Republic of Turkey between 2025 and 2045 are accelerating its transformation from a regional power to a global actor. In particular, infrastructure investments in Africa, diplomatic weight in the Middle East (strategic partnerships with the Gulf Cooperation Council) and historical ties in the Balkans give Turkey a sphere of influence spanning three continents.
This expanding strategic depth necessitates a reassessment of traditional military deterrence paradigms. In the face of potential threats to national interests at distances of 3,000-10,000 km, possessing intercontinental strike capability is no longer a ‘nice-to-have’ but a ‘must-have’ strategic necessity in today's world.

Turkey's 2045 Strategic Air Power: Intercontinental Deterrence (Part 1) | Strategic Research Center | STRASAM.ORG ®

The author examines Turkey's strategic air power capacity to be developed by 2045, particularly in the context of intercontinental bombing capabilities, and anticipates that it will possess intercontinental deterrence capabilities.

strasam.org

 

[TR_123456]

Only China's J-36 while flying so far. That's something else, of course. What I meant was unless they want to make Anka-4 a fighter instead of a bomber. Imagine a bomb truck drone built around a single TF35K with massive internal weapon bays. But, a bigger Anka-3 that could carry more payload would obviously be great.

Why not a twin TF35K engine bigger drone with a dozen of Gazap's?

 

[boredaf]

Why not a twin TF35K engine bigger drone with a dozen of Gazap's?

At that point we are going even beyond B-2 with the power mate. Although, we might want to strip the afterburner to lose some weight and not make it a target with the extra heat at any rate. And since Gazap is more or less like a MK84, a drone like that would probably carry dozens of that.

 

[KhanOfEurasia]

Turkey's 2045 Strategic Air Power: Intercontinental Deterrence (Part 2)​

By 2045, Turkey's economic presence in Africa is expected to be worth approximately $200+ billion (construction, energy, mining, telecommunications). This presence is not under military protection from Turkey's perspective. France's declining influence (military bases in former colonies are closing in the 2030s), China's economic weight but military absence, and the US's selective interest are creating a power vacuum in Turkey's areas of interest in Africa. Turkey's intercontinental strike capability could solidify its role as a ‘security guarantor’ to fill this vacuum.

Economic Sustainability: Cost-Benefit Analysis​

Cost of Traditional Power Projection​

Turkey's traditional power projection model, as of 2025, is costly and diplomatically dependent. For example, use of an F-16 fleet in an African crisis scenario:

• Air-to-Air Refuelling: Requires a minimum of 2x KC-135 tanker aircraft for distances over 3,000+ km. Each tanker flight: £50,000/hour × 8 hours = £400,000
• Overflight Permits: Diplomatic permission from countries such as Libya, Chad, Sudan (usually 48-72 hour delay)
• Pilot Risk: 8,000+ km round trip, 12+ hour flight, pilot fatigue and loss risk
• Operational Cost: 4x F-16 + 2x Tanker + logistics = ~$2.5 million/operation
• Political Cost: Approval of NATO allies, dependence on US spare parts support

Total Cost (per operation): $2.5-3 million + political dependence

ANKA-5 Alternative Model​

Intercontinental UAV platform dramatically reduces these costs:

• In-flight refuelling: Unnecessary (10,000 km autonomous range)
• Overflight Permits: Use of international airspace at 45,000+ ft altitude (diplomatic independence)
• Pilot Risk: Zero (unmanned platform)
• Operational Cost: 2x ANKA-5 × $8,000/hour × 18 hours = $288,000
• Political Cost: Zero (fully autonomous decision-making)

Total Cost (per operation): $300,000 + full strategic autonomy
Cost Reduction: 90%+ savings + political independence

20-Year Return on Investment (ROI)​

ANKA-5 platform development and production cost:
R&D & Development (2035-2040):
├─ Prototype: £800 million
├─ Test programme: £400 million
├─ Certification: £200 million
└─ TOTAL: £1.4 billion
Production Cost (2040-2045):
├─ 20 ANKA-5 units × $150 million = $3 billion
├─ Ground control stations: $200 million
├─ Training & simulation: $100 million
└─ TOTAL: $3.3 billion
EXTENDED TOTAL (2035-2045): $4.7 billion
20-year operational assessment (2045-2065):
Expected Number of Operations:
├─ Africa: 50 operations
├─ Middle East: 30 operations
├─ Balkans: 20 operations
└─ TOTAL: 100 operations
Traditional Model Cost:
100 operations × $2.5M = $250 million
ANKA-5 Model Cost:
├─ Initial investment: $4.7 billion
├─ 100 operations: $30 million
├─ 20 years of maintenance: $500 million
└─ TOTAL: $5.23 billion
DIFFERENCE: Seemingly $5 billion more expensive, but strategic benefits:
Political independence: PRICELESS
Zero pilot loss: PRICELESS
Deterrent effect: 500+ crises averted
Technological leadership: $10+ billion in exports
National security guarantee: PRICELESS
REAL ROI: Infinite

Geopolitical Outcomes: Reshaping the Balance of Power​

Turkey's Rising Role in Africa​

By 2045, Turkey's economic presence in Africa will be worth over $200 billion (construction, energy, mining, telecommunications). This presence currently lacks adequate military protection. France's declining influence (military bases in former colonies closing in the 2030s), China's economic weight but military absence, and the US's selective interest are creating a power vacuum.
Turkey's intercontinental strike capability solidifies its role as a ‘security guarantor’ that will fill this void. Specifically:

Sahel Region (Mali, Burkina Faso, Niger):​

• Turkish UAV bases (opened in Niger in 2032)
• ANKA-5s can reach the Sahel within 5 hours from Istanbul
• Deterrence against terrorist organisations such as JNIM (Jamaat Nusrat al-Islam wal-Mujahideen)

East Africa (Somalia, Kenya, Ethiopia):​

• Turkish military base in Somalia (Mogadishu, since 2017)
• ANKA-5s strategic strikes against Al-Shabaab
• Protection of Red Sea-Indian Ocean trade

Central Africa (Chad, Cameroon, GAC):​

• Turkish hydroelectric projects (15+ dams)
• ANKA-5s rapid response to local instability
• Military counterbalance to China's economic influence

Power to Establish Balance in the Middle East​

The geopolitics of the Middle East in 2045 will be shaped around three major power blocs:

1. Iran Axis: Iran-Iraq-Syria-Hezbollah (Shiite crescent)
2. Arab Bloc: Saudi Arabia-UAE-Egypt (Sunni alliance)
3. Turkey Model: Neo-Ottoman influence (Turkey-Qatar-Libya-Somalia)

The ANKA-5 platform enables Turkey to be the ‘swing power’ in this equation:

Message to Iran:​

• Turkey can reach strategic facilities in Tehran from a distance of 4,500 km if necessary
• This limits Iran's support for the PKK/YPG in Syria
• ‘Strategic balance’ is achieved

Offer to the Arab Bloc:​

• Turkey's intercontinental strike capability offers ‘umbrella security’ to Arab countries
• Alternative security guarantor to the US against the Iranian threat
• Gulf countries show interest in purchasing ANKA-5 drones (export diplomacy)

Balance for Israel:​

• While not breaking Israel's nuclear monopoly, it provides conventional deterrence
• Turkey's ‘table power’ increases in the Palestinian issue
• Turkey's mediation weight increases for a two-state solution

Consolidation of Turkish Influence in the Balkans​

Due to the EU's ‘enlargement fatigue’ (post-2028), the Balkans have once again become an area of interest for Turkey. The Turkish diaspora in Bosnia and Herzegovina, Albania, North Macedonia and Kosovo (3+ million) forms a strategic link.
The presence of ANKA-5s serves two geopolitical functions:
Deterrence against Serbian aggression: Potential Serbian attacks on Kosovo and Bosnia are deterred by Turkey's capacity to ‘reach Belgrade within 12 hours.’ This prevents a repeat of the Srebrenica trauma of the 1990s.
Security Alternative to the EU: Turkey offers Balkan countries a ‘Turkish security umbrella while they wait for EU membership.’ This creates a new model that supports soft power with hard power.

Technology Export and Diplomatic Tool​

ANKA-5 Export Model​

Turkey's TB2 Bayraktar success (2020-2030, sold to 30+ countries) sets a precedent for ANKA-5. However, as intercontinental bombardment capability is sensitive technology, a selective export strategy is applied:

Tier-1 Export (Full Version):​

• Azerbaijan: Strategic ally, deterrence against Armenia ($500M, 4 units)
• Pakistan: Second-strike capability against India ($600M, 4 units)
• Qatar: Against the Iranian threat, Turkish base present ($800M, 6 units)

Tier-2 Export (Limited Version):​

• Malaysia, Indonesia: Against China in the South China Sea ($400M each, 3 units each)
• Morocco, Algeria: Against Sahel terrorism ($350M each, 2 units each)

Tier-3 Export (Technology Transfer):​

• Saudi Arabia: Joint production, technology transfer ($2B agreement)
• UAE: Licensed production rights ($1.5B)

Total Export Potential (2045-2055): $8-12 billion Diplomatic Leverage Instrument
ANKA-5 is not just a military vehicle, it is a diplomatic bargaining chip:

Example Scenario 1: UN Security Council Vote​

• Turkey offers ‘ANKA-5 technology sharing’ to African countries before the vote on recognising the Palestinian state
• 15 African countries vote in favour of Turkey
• Result: Diplomatic goal achieved

Example Scenario 2: Energy Corridor Agreement​

• Turkmenistan requests security guarantees for the Turkmenistan-Azerbaijan-Turkey natural gas pipeline
• Turkey commits to ‘pipeline protection’ with ANKA-5
• The agreement is signed, and Turkey becomes an energy hub

Ethical and Legal Dimension: International Norm Creation​

Autonomous Weapons Systems Debate​

The UN Convention on Conventional Weapons (CCW) introduced regulations on Lethal Autonomous Weapons Systems (LAWS) in the 2030s. Turkey is a leading participant in these regulations.
ANKA-5's Level 5 autonomy is designed in accordance with the principle of ‘meaningful human control’:

• Strategic Target Selection: Human (General Staff approval)
• Tactical Execution: AI (autonomous navigation, target recognition)
• Firing Decision: Conditional human approval (manual for critical targets)
• Fail-safe: ‘Fallback’ protocol when communication is lost

This model positions Turkey as a ‘responsible user of autonomous weapons,’ shaping international norms.

Jus ad Bellum (Law of Recourse to War)​

Intercontinental strike capability brings the ‘pre-emptive strike’ debate to the fore. Turkey's official doctrine:

Scope of Legitimate Defence:​

• Direct threat to Turkish citizens
• Attack on Turkish assets in Africa/Middle East
• Request from allied countries (Azerbaijan, Qatar, TRNC)

Pre-emptive Strike Restrictions:​

• ‘Clear and present danger’ criterion
• Compliance with Article 51 of the UN Charter
• Not a violation of international law, but legitimate defence

By transparently sharing this doctrine, Turkey creates an image of a ‘responsible power’.

Scenario Analysis: Potential Crisis Management in 2045​

Crisis Alpha: Coup Threat in Chad​

Date: 15 August 2045
Situation: Attempted military coup in Chad. Turkey's $8 billion dam project is in jeopardy. 200 Turkish engineers are taken hostage.

Traditional Intervention (2025 model):​

• Diplomatic initiative: 48 hours lost
• F-16 deployment: 72 hours of preparation
• Overflight permissions: 24-hour delay
• Operation: 7 days later
• Result: Hostage crisis deepened, project cancelled

ANKA-5 Intervention (2045 model):​

• T+0: Intelligence: Coup detected
• T+2 hours: 2x ANKA-5 took off from Ankara
• T+8 hours: In Chad airspace, coup leader's base detected
• T+8:30: Command centre struck with operator approval (4x SOM-J)
• T+9: Coup leaders surrendered, hostages freed
• T+14: ANKA-5s returned to Ankara
• Result: Crisis resolved in 14 hours, Turkish prestige enhanced

Strategic Lesson: Speed = Deterrence. The presence of ANKA-5 prevents future coup attempts.

Crisis Beta: Bab el-Mandeb Blockade​

Date: 3 March 2046
Situation: New Houthi leader announced targeting Turkish LNG tankers. 2 Turkish tankers attacked (1 damaged).

Traditional Intervention:​

• Naval Deployment/Force Projection: 2 weeks
• International coalition: 1 month
• Result: Economic loss $500M+

ANKA-5 Intervention:​

• T+0: Intelligence: Houthi UAV production facilities identified (Sana'a, Yemen)
• T+4 hours: 4x ANKA-5 took off from Diyarbakır
• T+10 hours: 8 production facilities hit (16x SOM-J)
• T+10:30: SIGINT: Houthi communications: ‘We surrender’
• T+24: Yemeni government apologised, offered compensation
• Result: Bab el-Mandeb secure again within 24 hours

Strategic Lesson: Deterrence must be established before a crisis begins. The presence of ANKA-5 reduces the likelihood of future attacks by 90%.

Result: Turkey's Strategic Vision for 2045​

Turkey's vision for 2045 is not just economic growth, but secure growth. Economic assets worth over $500 billion across three continents can only be sustained with reliable military protection.
Intercontinental bombardment capability is the insurance for this protection. The ANKA-5 platform provides Turkey with three strategic gains:
Deterrence: The ‘cost’ of attacking Turkish interests becomes very high.
Autonomy: Diplomatic and military independence, freedom of national decision-making.
Prestige: Technological leadership, exports, diplomatic weight.
By 2045, Turkey will be not just a regional power, but the ‘strategic protector of three continents’. ANKA-5 is the symbol of this vision.

Turkey's 2045 Strategic Air Power: Intercontinental Deterrence (Part 2) | Strategic Research Center | STRASAM.ORG ®

The author argues that new security concepts can be implemented in the context of Turkey's progress in unmanned aerial vehicles, explaining with calculations and examples that Turkey must build its 2045 Strategic Air Power: Intercontinental Deterrence (Part 2).

strasam.org