Live Conflict Ukraine-Russia War

[Maximilien Robespierre]

Another ruzzian junk boat "bite the dust".
One of newest "high tech" ruzzian military ship successfully intercept french SCALP missile by hugging it

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1721596165534233056

aftermath

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1721596455285121327

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1721599985374900673

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1721601955972182021

best army in the world that can't even defend Its own naval base...

 

[blackjack]

Current plan.

1. Establish and hold a land bridge to Crimea - accomplished

2. Invade and dismantle the Donbass defensive system - in progress

3. Chase them from Donbass across the open steppe, across the left bank, and isolate them as they disperse - will commence after spring according to many analysts

4. Force a 2nd battle for Kiev - end of 2024

5. Move into the right bank of Ukraine - 2025

More or less this is the plan for the MOD and General Staff which Shoigu himself confirmed, the SMO was projected to achieve its goals in 2025

As the winter campaign to damage the electrification stations goes on - it will be less likely the average citizen of Ukraine will keep supporting fighting on unfavorable terms, and thus far we have not seen an insurgency in the south, so we have no reason to believe there will be much resistance once the Ukrainian military collapses in the donbass

Afzalov by the way was appointed as commander of the VKS for this precise campaign, after Surovikin, was promoted, or relieved (depending on what version you believe)

I do believe that what I called for, will be implemented by the VKS, not necessarily wide spread destruction of civilians as we see in Gaza

But certainly, harsh measures to begin maneuver warfare against Ukrainian defenses, as Ukraine transitions into a stationary defense, and begins rebuilding its defenses after the collapse of the Kramatorsk agglomeration, and the Seversk cauldron

They will build new defenses, in the spirit of our own departed Surovikin

Lacking the concrete of Donetsk, you will see greater reliance on trench diggers, mining vehicles, and ATGM, as well as sector wide artillery in the spirit of WW1

The only problem for them, is that Russia will have what they did not before- aviation, and a commander which understands combined warfare from aviation perspective, he was of course an Aerospace officer, not an army general like Surovikin

Noone in the VKS liked to be under Armageddon, even if you don't read about it, the greatest insult was to have the Air and Space forces under some infantry officer

Notice even the VKS operations have improved from perspective of data integration (A50U + S400)

(30 + planes downed in one week) so after the f-16s lose their hype with the atacms, himars and western tanks what else will push the hype back to ukraine?

 

[Bogeyman]

funny that is coming from you eh

I do not claim that the video I shared is 100% accurate. Nor do I have to agree with the comment of the person who shared the video. I shared a rumor about an incident. Everything else is your opinion. Your opinion is none of my business. Everyone draws their own conclusion.

I am not taking sides in the Ukrainian war. I don't have to hold it.

 

[blackjack]

cope

You sure showed me.

 

[Ecderha]

best army in the world that can't even defend Its own naval base...

On ruzzian main media there were documentary video and also ruzzian generals keep saying that Crimea is the MOST and Best military defended place in World.
ruzzian keep repeated that EVEN bird can NOT pass there without ruzzian defense did not allow it

But world keep seeing that all missiles Ukraine or West keep hitting ruzzian military target with Very Accuracy and making all ruzzian military junks to became wreck for the Scrap yards.

The most funny thing is that ruzzian media keep lie own citizens that ruzzian air defense destroyed all enemy targets
You can not believe how brutally ruzzian media LIE. It is 10/10 retarded thing

 

[Maximilien Robespierre]

On ruzzian main media there were documentary video and also ruzzian generals keep saying that Crimea is the MOST and Best military defended place in World.
ruzzian keep repeated that EVEN bird can NOT pass there without ruzzian defense did not allow it

But world keep seeing that all missiles Ukraine or West keep hitting ruzzian military target with Very Accuracy and making all ruzzian military junks to became wreck for the Scrap yards.

The most funny thing is that ruzzian media keep lie own citizens that ruzzian air defense destroyed all enemy targets
You can not believe how brutally ruzzian media LIE. It is 10/10 retarded thing

Losing naval assets in a land war, Im pretty sure Turkish Navy could steamroll the russian navy in black sea.

 

[contricusc]

4. Force a 2nd battle for Kiev - end of 2024

5. Move into the right bank of Ukraine - 2025

Before thinking about Kyiv again, they need to take Avdiivka first. The question is, can they do it without depleting all the ground offensive capabilities? So far, the losses on the Avdiivka offensive have been huge, with very little to show for.

 

[blackjack]

with very little to show for.

is that what you think?

These are western sources and General Zaluzhyny talking about their depletion of their manpower. I guess Russia owes Palestine a favor in terms of US spending more

 

[Maximilien Robespierre]

is that what you think?
View attachment 62660
View attachment 62661
View attachment 62662
View attachment 62663
View attachment 62664
These are western sources and General Zaluzhyny talking about their depletion of their manpower. I guess Russia owes Palestine a favor in terms of US spending more

2 weeks

 

[Ryder]

Even if the offensive goes slow or not as planned.

Ukraine is just making it more fustrating for Russia by constantly bombing airfields, supply lines, hqs and ammo depots.

 

[Relic]

At least in the short term, Ukraine has a lack of skilled / highly trained soldiers available to use all of the sophisticated equipment that the West is sending them. Attrition has hit the Ukrainians hard, as it has the Russians, however, unlike Russia, Ukraine doesn't have an unlimited stream of manpower that they're willing to feed into the meat grinder for minimal and pyrhic successes. As such, it's going to take some time for Ukraine, with help from the West, to train up their forces. That doesn't mean they can't keep significantly degrading the Russian military in the meantime, however.

Ukraine is set to have a military budget of approximately $150 Billion usd in 2024. They will, eventually, get $60 Billion additional usd from USA. The EU is set to give them an additional $30 Billion usd throughout 2024, while countries such as Britain, Canada and Australia will combine to donate an additional $15 Billion usd. Meanwhile, Ukraine's own military spending will reach $42 Billion usd in 2024, which means that while Ukraine is in need of regenerating it's combat manpower, they have no lack of funds to commit to the war effort. In fact, they'll have 40% more money to spend in 2024 than they did in 2023.

With all the money they could ask for, but a lack of manpower, Ukraine will increasingly switch its tactics in 2024, using long range strike capabilities that are coming online, to inflict maximum damage on the Russian effort in Ukraine, from the relative safety of range. The long range approach will feature new and different weapons for the Russians to consistently contend with, as they attempt to advance.

1. JASSM and Taurus cruise missiles: With the arrival of F-16s to Ukraine's arsenal, they'll get fresh stockpiles of cruise missiles from USA and Germany . While volumes will not likely exceed 200 or so, the missiles will continue to be used strategically, targeting Russian ammunition depots, command and control centers, air defense systems and costly assets that the Russians lack significant quantities of. With ranges between 350-500km, Ukraine will be able to continue striking all Russian targets in Ukraine and occupied Crimea.

2. JDAMs: The arrival of the F-16 will not only increase the capility of Ukraine's HAARM missiles of destroying Russian air defense systems from range, but it will also allow Ukraine to use JDAMs much more consistently, as the F-16 is a launch platform that JDAMs were intended to be launched from. USA has plenty of JDAMS for 500lb, 1000lb and 2000lb bombs, which will be used range, to strike Russian forward positions and inflict mass casualties at the front.

3. GLSDB: As has recently been disclosed, Boeing is finally ready to start shipping the long awaited, ground launched GLSB, in significant quantities. The project was delayed as they developed a new launch vehicle for the weapon system, but they should start appearing in Ukraine soon. With a range of 150km, GLSDB is yet another weapon that can hit targets from a long way away, and it's relatively cheap to produce in significant quantities.

4. ATACMS: It took USA a long time to decide to send the older model, shorter ranged ATAM missiles, but they proved immediately effective in the large scale destruction of Russian helicopter squadrons in Berdyansk and Luhansk. ATAM was the pre-cursor for the longer range ATACMS rockets, which have deep strike capability out to 300km. Like JASSM and Taurus, don't expect Ukraine to get large quantities of ATACMS, with maybe 100 or so of the strategic weapons making their way to Ukraine in 2024.

5. Switchblade 600 Drones: Aerovironment shipped Ukraine hundreds of their Switchblade 300 model anti-personnel drones in 2023. The American made drones proved effective and the desire to bring the Switchblade 600 model into the theater became a reality. USA subsequently ordered a large batch of the drones for Ukraine and they're set to arrive throughout 2024. With 90km of range, and a warhead capable of destroying all Russian armored vehicles, Switchblade 600 will significantly outrange Russia's Lancet drones, providing Ukraine with a similar capability to that if what the Russians have been using so effectively. A lot of Russian armor and artillery is going to get chewed up upon Switchblade 600 being introduced in significant quantities.

6. Ukrainian domestic projects: Whether it is their own long range missiles such as HRIM 2, or their analog of the the Shahed Kamikaze drone, look for Ukraine to use cheap, effective means of destroying expensive Russian assets from afar. Ukraine claims their new drone has a range of 1000km and has entered mass production. There is also a feeling that Russia's air defense inside of Ukraine has been, and can continue to be compromised, which means that Russian targets inside of Ukraine could be highly vulnerable to waive attacks.

Expect 2024 to be the year of ranged weapons in Ukraine. The Ukrainians will use a sizable portion of their budget to drive the cost of this war up substantially for the Russians, while simultaneously allowing the manpower of their forces to be regenerated and re-trained.

 

[Maximilien Robespierre]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1721153921383608569

Reason of death cringe ass larper patch

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1720529981351108774

Avdiivka hell for russians

 

[chibiyabi]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1721153921383608569

Reason of death cringe ass larper patch

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1720529981351108774

Avdiivka hell for russians

there are so many reasons why avdiivka never fell to russian since 2014. what happens to day just a confirmation..

 

[Gary]

​

Some important numbers here

North Korea sends Putin tons of ammo. Europe can’t do the same for Ukraine

Pyongyang beats the EU in supplying shells to the guns in Ukraine.

www.politico.eu

North Korea sends Putin tons of ammo. Europe can’t do the same for Ukraine​

Pyongyang beats the EU in supplying shells to the guns in Ukraine.

Russia's President Vladimir Putin and North Korea's leader Kim Jong Un | Pool photo by Mikhail Metzel via AFP/Getty Images

In the race to arm allies, North Korea has beaten the EU to a million artillery shells.

Despite pledging to support Ukraine with a million rounds of ammunition within a year to help it beat back Russia’s invasion, the EU’s weapons manufacturers are nowhere near the kind of output needed to hit that target by March.

"I'm also very worried about the production of ammunition," Estonia's Prime Minister Kaja Kallas, who first proposed the target, said on the sidelines of last week's EU leaders summit. "The promise that we have given to Ukraine to deliver 1 million artillery rounds ... this is behind."


Meanwhile, North Korea is shipping vast amounts of ammunition to Russia; a South Korean lawmaker reckons Pyongyang has already sent a million shells. South Korea's National Intelligence Service told lawmakers at a closed-door parliamentary audit on Wednesday that North Korea had made at least 10 arms transfers to Russia since August. The EU on Friday condemned reports of shipments from North Korea to Russia.

“North Korea runs a war economy which we don’t,” said Trevor Taylor from the Royal United Services Institute for Defence and Security Studies (RUSI) in London. “But whether the ammunition they are supplying is at the standard of reliability and safety that the Europeans would adhere to is another question.”

The European Commission has delivered 223,800 artillery shells to Ukraine since May 31 under a reimbursement scheme for countries that agreed to dispatch their inventories to Kyiv.

Lithuania’s Foreign Minister Gabrielius Landsbergis tweeted recently that deliveries from EU countries are at around 300,000.

The ramp-up to significantly boost supply is happening very slowly.

Last month, France’s Armed Forces Minister Sébastien Lecornu said France would be able to send, as of 2024, some 3,000 rounds of critical 155 millimeter ammunition to Kyiv each month — up from 1,000 currently — due to defense contractors like Nexter and Eurenco upping production.

However, that would still amount to only 36,000 rounds a year from France.

An official tabulation of German military aid to Ukraine also paints a dire picture: 27,500 155mm rounds planned or in execution for delivery, and fewer than 19,000 155mm explosive shells as well as an unspecified (but almost certainly significantly smaller) amount of 155mm precision-guided ammunition already delivered — just a fraction of what Ukraine needs every month.

“The 1-million-round ammunition target remains an important political goal,” said Peter Stano, a spokesperson for the Commission, adding that ministers would have a chance to return to the goal at a meeting in Brussels on November 14.

The European Commission has delivered 223,800 artillery shells to Ukraine since May 31 | Anatolii Stepanov/AFP via Getty Images
One promising signal is that seven EU countries have ordered ammunition through the European Defence Agency’s (EDA) new fast-track joint procurement program.

“Industry will always tell you it’s never enough, but money is coming in,” said Lucie Béraud-Sudreau from the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute. “We’re always facing the time lag issue. Governments need to make budgets and then there’s another year until contracts are issued.”

Ukraine blasts Russia​

Despite the lagging deliveries, Ukraine has for the first time pulled ahead of Russia in how many shells it's firing per day.


At the start of the invasion, Moscow’s army was firing 63,000 shells a day at Ukrainian forces compared to just 4,000 coming the other way. But as of October, the tables have turned, with Ukraine launching 9,000 per day against Russia’s 7,000, the Ukrainian armed forces said.

The North Korea deliveries could help Moscow regain the upper hand, adding to its own prodigious production.

“The Russians still carry first place in the world in the production of shells per month – 125,000,” said Petro Chernyk, a Ukrainian military analyst, adding that the United States will only ramp up to 80,000 per month by 2025.

Ukraine's allies are trying to add new production. Ukraine’s minister of strategic industries, Oleksandr Kamyshin, admitted in an interview with POLITICO that harnessing all existing global capacity would be “not enough” to keep Kyiv’s forces supplied with ammunition.

German defense giant Rheinmetall bought Expal Systems, a Spanish ammunition and armament manufacturer, in August. The purchase was aimed at boosting Rheinmetall’s munitions output — in particular of mortar and artillery shells and propellant.

In October, the company announced two orders for artillery ammunition: one for “tens of thousands” of 155mm rounds earmarked for Ukraine, another for over 150,000 155mm artillery shells, manufactured by Expal.


But only some tens of thousands will make their way to Ukraine by the end of this year, according to Rheinmetall, with the rest slated for arrival next year.

Ukraine has also signed a deal with Poland's PGZ to manufacture 125mm shells for tanks in Poland.

In response, Kyiv is looking to produce more ammunition at home.

In September, Germany’s Federal Cartel Office gave the go-ahead to a joint venture between Rheinmetall and state-owned Ukrainian Defense Industry.

One reason the million-rounds target is so far from being hit is that EU countries — at the insistence of Internal Market Commissioner Thierry Breton, Germany and France — wouldn't agree to include ammunition produced outside the EU.

If they can't access non-EU factories, defense executives say they need long-term contracts to justify investment in new manufacturing lines.

Fighting old wars​

The failure to respond to the Ukraine war with a rapid production surge is due in part to a security architecture dating back to the Cold War.

Western military planners imagined that a war with the USSR would last just weeks before nuclear weapons were deployed, meaning there was no expectation of the kind of prolonged World War I-style grind now seen in Ukraine.

When Western powers did go to war, they also fought very different conflicts than what's now happening in Ukraine. The U.K. military action in Northern Ireland, French interventions in Western Africa, or the U.S.-backed invasions of Afghanistan and Iraq bear little resemblance to the artillery-heavy Russia-Ukraine war.

The U.K. military action in Northern Ireland, French interventions in Western Africa, or the U.S.-backed invasions of Afghanistan and Iraq bear little resemblance to the artillery-heavy Russia-Ukraine war | Anatolii Stepanov/AFP via Getty Images


With downward pressure on defense spending prevalent across NATO’s European members, and ministries cautious of the costs associated with maintaining warehouses full of shells that need to be regularly replaced, spending on munitions tumbled, said Taylor from RUSI.
To make matters worse, many Western armies run on different weapons systems, increasing costs. The EDA’s joint procurement program applies to four 155mm firing platforms — France’s Caesar, Poland’s Krab, Germany’s Panzerhaubitze 2000 and Slovakia’s Zuzana.
The head of NATO’s military committee, Dutch Admiral Rob Bauer, wants countries to consolidate technology, telling Reuters that the cost of making a simple artillery shell has gone from €2,000 before Russia’s attack on Ukraine to €8,000 today as demand booms.

Bauer said there are at least 14 different kinds of 155mm ammunition, and as countries ramp up defense spending it makes sense to standardize design.

All of this comes on top of the headaches posed by training staff, funding new factories and red tape.

“There are too many people, perhaps in governments if not in ministries of defense, who think you can boost weapons production like you can boost bicycle production,” said Taylor. “That’s just not the case.”

Veronika Melkozerova reported from Kyiv.

 

[Relic]

​

Some important numbers here

North Korea sends Putin tons of ammo. Europe can’t do the same for Ukraine

Pyongyang beats the EU in supplying shells to the guns in Ukraine.

www.politico.eu

North Korea sends Putin tons of ammo. Europe can’t do the same for Ukraine​

Pyongyang beats the EU in supplying shells to the guns in Ukraine.

Russia's President Vladimir Putin and North Korea's leader Kim Jong Un | Pool photo by Mikhail Metzel via AFP/Getty Images

In the race to arm allies, North Korea has beaten the EU to a million artillery shells.

Despite pledging to support Ukraine with a million rounds of ammunition within a year to help it beat back Russia’s invasion, the EU’s weapons manufacturers are nowhere near the kind of output needed to hit that target by March.

"I'm also very worried about the production of ammunition," Estonia's Prime Minister Kaja Kallas, who first proposed the target, said on the sidelines of last week's EU leaders summit. "The promise that we have given to Ukraine to deliver 1 million artillery rounds ... this is behind."


Meanwhile, North Korea is shipping vast amounts of ammunition to Russia; a South Korean lawmaker reckons Pyongyang has already sent a million shells. South Korea's National Intelligence Service told lawmakers at a closed-door parliamentary audit on Wednesday that North Korea had made at least 10 arms transfers to Russia since August. The EU on Friday condemned reports of shipments from North Korea to Russia.

“North Korea runs a war economy which we don’t,” said Trevor Taylor from the Royal United Services Institute for Defence and Security Studies (RUSI) in London. “But whether the ammunition they are supplying is at the standard of reliability and safety that the Europeans would adhere to is another question.”

The European Commission has delivered 223,800 artillery shells to Ukraine since May 31 under a reimbursement scheme for countries that agreed to dispatch their inventories to Kyiv.

Lithuania’s Foreign Minister Gabrielius Landsbergis tweeted recently that deliveries from EU countries are at around 300,000.

The ramp-up to significantly boost supply is happening very slowly.

Last month, France’s Armed Forces Minister Sébastien Lecornu said France would be able to send, as of 2024, some 3,000 rounds of critical 155 millimeter ammunition to Kyiv each month — up from 1,000 currently — due to defense contractors like Nexter and Eurenco upping production.

However, that would still amount to only 36,000 rounds a year from France.

An official tabulation of German military aid to Ukraine also paints a dire picture: 27,500 155mm rounds planned or in execution for delivery, and fewer than 19,000 155mm explosive shells as well as an unspecified (but almost certainly significantly smaller) amount of 155mm precision-guided ammunition already delivered — just a fraction of what Ukraine needs every month.

“The 1-million-round ammunition target remains an important political goal,” said Peter Stano, a spokesperson for the Commission, adding that ministers would have a chance to return to the goal at a meeting in Brussels on November 14.

The European Commission has delivered 223,800 artillery shells to Ukraine since May 31 | Anatolii Stepanov/AFP via Getty Images
One promising signal is that seven EU countries have ordered ammunition through the European Defence Agency’s (EDA) new fast-track joint procurement program.

“Industry will always tell you it’s never enough, but money is coming in,” said Lucie Béraud-Sudreau from the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute. “We’re always facing the time lag issue. Governments need to make budgets and then there’s another year until contracts are issued.”

Ukraine blasts Russia​

Despite the lagging deliveries, Ukraine has for the first time pulled ahead of Russia in how many shells it's firing per day.


At the start of the invasion, Moscow’s army was firing 63,000 shells a day at Ukrainian forces compared to just 4,000 coming the other way. But as of October, the tables have turned, with Ukraine launching 9,000 per day against Russia’s 7,000, the Ukrainian armed forces said.

The North Korea deliveries could help Moscow regain the upper hand, adding to its own prodigious production.

“The Russians still carry first place in the world in the production of shells per month – 125,000,” said Petro Chernyk, a Ukrainian military analyst, adding that the United States will only ramp up to 80,000 per month by 2025.

Ukraine's allies are trying to add new production. Ukraine’s minister of strategic industries, Oleksandr Kamyshin, admitted in an interview with POLITICO that harnessing all existing global capacity would be “not enough” to keep Kyiv’s forces supplied with ammunition.

German defense giant Rheinmetall bought Expal Systems, a Spanish ammunition and armament manufacturer, in August. The purchase was aimed at boosting Rheinmetall’s munitions output — in particular of mortar and artillery shells and propellant.

In October, the company announced two orders for artillery ammunition: one for “tens of thousands” of 155mm rounds earmarked for Ukraine, another for over 150,000 155mm artillery shells, manufactured by Expal.


But only some tens of thousands will make their way to Ukraine by the end of this year, according to Rheinmetall, with the rest slated for arrival next year.

Ukraine has also signed a deal with Poland's PGZ to manufacture 125mm shells for tanks in Poland.

In response, Kyiv is looking to produce more ammunition at home.

In September, Germany’s Federal Cartel Office gave the go-ahead to a joint venture between Rheinmetall and state-owned Ukrainian Defense Industry.

One reason the million-rounds target is so far from being hit is that EU countries — at the insistence of Internal Market Commissioner Thierry Breton, Germany and France — wouldn't agree to include ammunition produced outside the EU.

If they can't access non-EU factories, defense executives say they need long-term contracts to justify investment in new manufacturing lines.

Fighting old wars​

The failure to respond to the Ukraine war with a rapid production surge is due in part to a security architecture dating back to the Cold War.

Western military planners imagined that a war with the USSR would last just weeks before nuclear weapons were deployed, meaning there was no expectation of the kind of prolonged World War I-style grind now seen in Ukraine.

When Western powers did go to war, they also fought very different conflicts than what's now happening in Ukraine. The U.K. military action in Northern Ireland, French interventions in Western Africa, or the U.S.-backed invasions of Afghanistan and Iraq bear little resemblance to the artillery-heavy Russia-Ukraine war.

The U.K. military action in Northern Ireland, French interventions in Western Africa, or the U.S.-backed invasions of Afghanistan and Iraq bear little resemblance to the artillery-heavy Russia-Ukraine war | Anatolii Stepanov/AFP via Getty Images


With downward pressure on defense spending prevalent across NATO’s European members, and ministries cautious of the costs associated with maintaining warehouses full of shells that need to be regularly replaced, spending on munitions tumbled, said Taylor from RUSI.
To make matters worse, many Western armies run on different weapons systems, increasing costs. The EDA’s joint procurement program applies to four 155mm firing platforms — France’s Caesar, Poland’s Krab, Germany’s Panzerhaubitze 2000 and Slovakia’s Zuzana.
The head of NATO’s military committee, Dutch Admiral Rob Bauer, wants countries to consolidate technology, telling Reuters that the cost of making a simple artillery shell has gone from €2,000 before Russia’s attack on Ukraine to €8,000 today as demand booms.

Bauer said there are at least 14 different kinds of 155mm ammunition, and as countries ramp up defense spending it makes sense to standardize design.

All of this comes on top of the headaches posed by training staff, funding new factories and red tape.

“There are too many people, perhaps in governments if not in ministries of defense, who think you can boost weapons production like you can boost bicycle production,” said Taylor. “That’s just not the case.”

Veronika Melkozerova reported from Kyiv.

They key to this article is the following.

1. Russia produces 125,000 shells per month, enough for them to maintain a 4000 shell per day rate, assuming none of that ammunition is destroyed before it gets to the front. As we've seen in this war, that rarely happens.

2. Russia is actually firing fewer shells per day than Ukraine, after tearing through their stockpiles earlier in the war. The reason they have to rely on North Korea for so many shells is because they've so thoroughly exhausted their exisiting domestic supplies.

Why is all this important? The entire Russian military is built around the idea of artillery advancement. The fact that they've burned through many of their stockpiles and are now having to rely on countries such North Korea, bodes well for Ukraine, because the Russian supply is not sustainable.

As I've mentioned previously, between domestic production, deliveries from USA and deliveries from Europe, Ukraine will be able to sustain a rate of fire between 2000-3000 shells per day long term, while Russia will be able to sustain a rate of 4000-6000 shells per day. That's why it remains imperative that Ukraine prioritize quality over quantity. They possess the better, more accurate artillery systems and shells. They have to focus on maximizing the damage their artillery can do.

Furthermore, USA should lobby South Korea to transfer them another 1 million 155mm shells, so they can transfer 1 million of their own to Ukraine, in order to match the shells sent to Russia by North Korea. If North Korea is going to support Russia, it only makes sense for South Korea to support their American allies in undermining the North Korean effort.

Regardless, as I mentioned in my earlier post, Ukraine has to focus on the adoption and execution of other long range forms of warfare. Russia has had the artillery advantage since the outset. Ukraine has to focus on the use of drones to target Russians artillery pieces, and swarm Russian armor, cruise missiles / ATACMS to destroy ammunition depots and JDAMs / GLSDB to help with deep deeper strike options.

 

[Gary]

Syrski seems not that brilliant

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1720814139600232737

 

[Gary]

1500 tanks is a lot, but more impressive is if it's the T-90M. Not the T-62/55

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1721414855704691132

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1721415923620548679

 

[Azeri441]

1500 tanks is a lot, but more impressive is if it's the T-90M. Not the T-62/55

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1721414855704691132

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1721415923620548679

LOL, Russia was producing around 100 tanks before the war, no country, even in wartime, in modern times, can produce 1000+ tanks per year, unless manufacturing means just slightly refurbishing old stockpiles to driveable condition. It is estimated Russia is producing at maximum 250 tanks which include deep modernization of T-72 and T-80s, and very few of actually brand new T-90Ms

 

[Gary]

LOL, Russia was producing around 100 tanks before the war, no country, even in wartime, in modern times, can produce 1000+ tanks per year, unless manufacturing means just slightly refurbishing old stockpiles to driveable condition. It is estimated Russia is producing at maximum 250 tanks which include deep modernization of T-72 and T-80s, and very few of actually brand new T-90Ms

Maybe he's bullshitting, but I'm not underestimating Russia either

Kurganmashzavod is maintaining its estimate of delivering +600 vehicles this year. Incl. Approximately 250-350 BMPs, BMDs, and BTRs, including BTR-RDs

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1721727834861814115

While Uralvagonzavod and Omsktransmash have delivered around 500 tanks this year, with a maximum potential of reaching 600 units by December

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1719943241385001365

 

[Gary]

4. Force a 2nd battle for Kiev - end of 2024
5. Move into the right bank of Ukraine - 2025

At this point of the war, no one can dream of massive advances and gaining large swathes of land anymore, not Ukraine and not Russia, that train passed last year.

Considering that Zelensky has a maximalist goal (the retaking of the entirety of Ukraine all the way to the 1991 border and looking at the very successful use of the defensive line (Surovikin line) to stop any advance, it's only logical that any future Russian offensive action is in the sole aim to expand the defensive line even further, not necessarily about gaining more towns and populations, but merely to increase the line in which Ukrainian soldiers must cross. Thereby exhausting them in the long run.

For example, If Avdiivka and its coke factory fell, that means more land, trenches and fortifications for Ukraine to cross in 2024, 2025 ...and so on.

More or less this is the plan for the MOD and General Staff which Shoigu himself confirmed, the SMO was projected to achieve its goals in 2025

As the winter campaign to damage the electrification stations goes on - it will be less likely the average citizen of Ukraine will keep supporting fighting on unfavorable terms, and thus far we have not seen an insurgency in the south, so we have no reason to believe there will be much resistance once the Ukrainian military collapses in the donbass

Afzalov by the way was appointed as commander of the VKS for this precise campaign, after Surovikin, was promoted, or relieved (depending on what version you believe)

The only problem for them, is that Russia will have what they did not before- aviation, and a commander which understands combined warfare from aviation perspective, he was of course an Aerospace officer, not an army general like Surovikin

Noone in the VKS liked to be under Armageddon, even if you don't read about it, the greatest insult was to have the Air and Space forces under some infantry officer

Notice even the VKS operations have improved from perspective of data integration (A50U + S400)

(30 + planes downed in one week) so after the f-16s lose their hype with the atacms, himars and western tanks what else will push the hype back to ukraine?

The VKS has not been the decisive force in this war even after nearly 2 years of fighting. But there's some noted improvement on their techniques. Its going to be a race between the VKS being able to do a proper air campaign with Ukrainian's learning curves in mastering NATO-supplied F-16. Not that F-16 will necessarily win the war in the air, but at least there will be increased headache when they come operational.