Live Conflict Ukraine-Russia War

Relic

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Let's take a deep dive into how many artillery shells Ukraine 🇺🇦 can reasonably expect to get procure / produce in 2024. I'm going to use extremely realistic, well sourced numbers for the sake accuracy in this exercise.

USA 🇺🇸: The Americans are currently ramping up production of 155mm artillery shells and recently they hit 28,000 per month production, doubling their pre-war production. Their stated target for Q1 2024 is 36,000 shells per month, growing to 60,000 shells per month by Q4 and 100,000 shells per month by the conclusion of 2025. Given that they'll produce between 36,000-60,000 shells per month in 2024 and they still have surplus shells in their exisiting inventory, I expect the Americans to maintain a rate of roughly 50,000 shells per month to Ukraine, throughout the 2024 calendar year.

Furthermore, USA also sends Ukraine thr bulk of their 105mm artillery shells. We have a much smaller indication of how many 105mm shells USA produces, but they have been sending Ukraine largest batches of 105mm shells. I think that will continue, but in smaller quantities. I expect the Americans to continue to send about 10,000 105mm shells per month in 2024.

Total for Ukraine in 2024
600,000 155mm shells
120,000 105mm shells

Germany 🇩🇪: Expect Germany to be the second largest exporter of 155mm artillery shells to Ukraine in 2024. The Germans have signed deals with both Rheinmetall and recently purchased Expal (in Spain) to produce 200,000 shells for Ukraine in 2024. They signed another contract with an undisclosed French company (believed to be Nexter) to provide Ukraine a further 36,000 155mm artillery shells in 2024.

On the 105mm artillery shell front, we don't have much information on German production, therefore, I will not speculate.

Total for Ukraine in 2024
236,000 155mm shells

Britain 🇬🇧: The British are also ramping up artillery shell production and have signed several contracts with defense giant BAE to produce additional 155mm artillery shells for Ukraine as well as to replenish British stocks. Based on the contracts signed, I expect British production to be about 20,000 shells per month in 2024, with half those shells produced going to Ukraine.

Britain also produces 105mm shells but production levels are fairly low. We're talking 3000-5000 shells per month, most of which will be sent to Ukraine. Let's call that 3000 shells per month.

Total for Ukraine in 2024
120,000 155mm shells
36,000 105mm shells

France 🇫🇷: French President Macron recently stated that France will increase monthly deliveries of 155mm artillery shells to Ukraine to 3000 shells per month in 2024. France is working in cooperation with Australia to produce these shells. Meanwhile, France is negotiating with Saudi Arabia to purchase back an undisclosed quantity of CAESAR howitzers and associated artillery shells. We don't know how many shells could be involved in this deal, therefore, I won't speculate.

Total for Ukraine in 2024
36,000 155mm shells

Czech Republic 🇨🇿 Bulgaria 🇧🇬 Poland 🇵🇱: The Czechs remain the largest producer of Soviet caliber (122mm and 152mm) artillery shells in Europe, outside of Russia, and a key source of shells for Ukraine. The Czechs also produce 155mm shells in meaningful quantities and they will continue to make their way to Ukraine as well.

Poland 🇵🇱 also produces both Soviet and Western caliber shells and their new government has signalled their desire to keep arms streaming into Ukraine.

Bulgaria 🇧🇬 remains a key producer of 152mm and 122mm Soviet caliber shells. They've been key to Ukraine's Soviet era guns continuing to fire throughout the conflict. USA is continuing to pay Bulgaria to max produce shells for Ukraine and will do so again in 2024.

Total for Ukraine in 2024
120,000 155mm
60,000 122mm
60,000 152mm

Finland 🇫🇮 Sweden 🇸🇪 Norway 🇳🇴 Denmark 🇩🇰: Recently the Finns announced that they'll triple artillery shell production in 2024. They make both 152mm and 155mm shells that Ukraine covets. Expect numbers in the 50,000 shells range for Ukraine in 2024.

Sweden also produces 155mm artillery shells in significant quantities. Saab is in the process of expanding production to 400,000 shells per year in 2025. Expect that number to be roughly 300,000 shells in 2024, with at least 5000 of those shells being sent to Ukraine each month, with roughly 100,000 being sent for the year.

Denmark and Norway don't produce artillery shells in large quantities both both countries have noted that they also open to helping fund purchases of shells feom third party producers. Expect them both to find a way to procure shells for Ukraine.

Total for Ukraine in 2024
100,000 155mm shells
50,00 152mm shells

South Korea 🇰🇷: The South Koreans are one of the world's largest producers of artillery shells and they have enormous quantities stockpiled because of their enduring conflict with North Korea. In 2023 the South Koreans sent USA 500,000 shells to backfill American inventories. With the value of shells reaching upwards of $8000 each for 155mm shells, look for South Korea to sell third parties shells to backfill their inventories, allowing them to further deplete their own stocks by sending shells to Ukraine. The South Korean Parliament requires this work around because their constitution does not allow for weapons to be sent directly to war zones. With North Korea openly supplying Russia, however, expect South Korea to continue helping their allies supply Ukraine. Antony Blinken was recently in South Korea and it was noted that one of the topics that he and his South Korean counterpart discussed was the further procurement of artillery shells from South Korea.

Total for Ukraine in 2024
250,000 155mm shells

Ukraine 🇺🇦: Domestic production of artillery shells has begun in Ukraine and continues to ramp up domestically (as well as at facilities abroad). Speculation is that Ukraine will look to produce roughly 10,000 caliber shells per month in 122mm, 152mm and 155mm specs. It's hard to see Ukraine being able to produce more than these numbers at this point, however, the number will still be meaningful overall.

Total for Ukraine in 2024
40,000 155mm shells
40,000 152mm shells
40,000 122mm shells

All other suppliers: it's really difficult to project what third party countries might sell ammunition to Ukraine directly or indirectly. Pakistan 🇵🇰 , Morocco 🇲🇦, Serbia 🇷🇸, Croatia 🇭🇷 and Turkey 🇹🇷 are examples of countries that have sent weapons (including artillery shells) to Ukraine in 2022 and 2023. Often these weapons are purchased quietly by USA, Britain and EU countries. Furthermore, countries such as Canada 🇨🇦, The Netherlands 🇳🇱, Italy 🇮🇹, Spain 🇪🇸, Greece 🇬🇷 and the Baltic countries produce small to mid size quantities of artillery shells. Some of these shells will make it to Ukraine, but it's hard to predict in what quantities.

Total for Ukraine in 2024
100,000 mixed shells

Total aggregate of artillery shells for Ukraine in 2024.

USA 🇺🇸 : 720,000
South Korea: 250,000
Germany 🇩🇪 : 236,000
Czech Republic 🇨🇿, Poland 🇵🇱, Bulgaria 🇧🇬: 240,000
Britain 🇬🇧: 156,000
Finland 🇫🇮, Sweden 🇸🇪, Norway 🇳🇴, Denmark 🇩🇰: 150,000
Ukraine (domestic) 🇺🇦: 120,000
All other sources: 100,000
France 🇫🇷 , Australia 🇦🇺: 36,000

Total artillery shells for Ukraine in 2024: 1,500,000-1,750,000. The range accounts for the possibility that South Korea doesn't provide additional shells to Ukraine in 2024. It also accounts for the potential that countries such as Saudi Arabia and Oman agree to sell significant quantities of artillery shells to foreign buyers working on Ukraine's behalf.
 

Relic

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Yesterday I watch a video shot in Andriivka where Russian infantry could just walk through the open field without having to worry about artillery shelling.

There is no doubt that Ukraine is conserving artillery shells on some sections of the front. That's especially true in areas that have been defending with Soviet era 122mm and 152mm guns. There is an extreme shell shortage at the front, especially when it comes to those types of shells. The Ukrainians are prioritizing using FPV drones, grenades and ATGMs right now to dispatch Russian armor. They're being forced to engage Russian infantry as they approach Ukrainian lines, rather than from afar, using artillery shells. There simply aren't enough available for Ukraine to continue firing them with impunity. We're back into a phase similar to Bahkmut, especially in Avdiivka. Ukraine has inflicted horrendous casualties on the Russians during their advancement, but, eventually, continuing to pour scarce resources into defending strategically unimportant towns and small cities, provides diminishing returns. If you're not longer killing Russians at immense ratio differentials and destroying scores of armor, it's probably worth it to conserve ammunition, tactically withdraw / retreat to the next line of prepared defenses and live to fight another day.

Ukraine is not in a position where they can go toe-to-toe with the Russians for months on end in multiple locations and not expect to face ammunition shortages, personnel attrition and diminishing returns. At times they're going to have to get land to the Russians, re-set minefields, regroup troops and re-supply them. It's the only way you can successfully defend against a force that is willing to accept such high body count and material loss to achieve their objective.
 

contricusc

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A ten minutes compilation of hate that was spewed on Russian TV, with English subtitles.
 

Gary

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I see nothing very different than the average Israeli politician, but the West are generally fine with Israel while going completely nuts when Russia comes out with something less radical.
 

Spitfire9

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Russia upped the Democracy game by having a female presidential nominee for the first time. Your move Ukraine.

I think it is useful to Putin to have an opposition candidate extremely unlikely to threaten his prospects of re-election. It legitimises the process. No need to imprison or to kill her (unlike Navalny).
 

Gary

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I think it is useful to Putin to have an opposition candidate extremely unlikely to threaten his prospects of re-election. It legitimises the process. No need to imprison or to kill her (unlike Navalny).

Well, we need to pay attention to the polls, in a democracy anything is possible. Remember how Trump trolled his way to the presidency back then?
Although to be fair, the success of Russian defense this summer would likely give Putin a lot of preference among the voters.
 

Relic

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Significant news out of Japan🇯🇵. The Japanese Government is set to change their military export laws to allow them to send items to their allies. Japan has agreed to send "dozens" of PAC 3 Patriot Missiles to USA🇺🇸 to backfill their own inventories, freeing the Americans up to aggressively deplete their own stockpiles to restock Ukraine ahead of winter. Japan also builds their own PAC 3 missiles under agreement with Raytheon.

 

Rooxbar

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ow4cuwhn154c1.jpeg
 

Relic

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Clearly the way it is going, it will stop.
The "urgency" is fabricated for political reasons. USA 🇺🇸 still has $4.4 Billion usd worth of Presidential Drawdown Authority they can send Ukraine. They could literally do the following.

December: Additional $400 Million usd weapons package for Ukraine (on top of the previous two packages they've sent this month).

January: Additional $1 Billion usd weapons package for Ukraine

February: Additional $1Billion usd weapons package for Ukraine

March: Additional $1 Billion weapons package for Ukraine

April: Additional $1 Billion weapons package for Ukraine

The only money that is running low is internal funding for USA to order replacement items to backfill what they send Ukraine. There is no shortage of authorized funding to send items to Ukraine. They'll simply have to wait for supplemental funding to replace those items in their inventories.
 

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