With the front being the way it is we have not seen this much movement since 2022. This phase of the war looks like the early phase of the war after the bait and switch with the peace deal but before Ukraine had managed to finish mobilization. The difference now is there is no way Ukraine can mobilize to fix their problems.
I'd thought I take the opportunity to discuss a general picture of how things might go in a more detailed manner than I have before and discuss the maneuver warfare question.
When armies collapse it doesn't happen all of the sudden. It is a slow process which culminates in the army being able to give ineffectual resistance. Ukraine is in the process of collapsing right now but they are still able to give some resistance which results in Russian Casualties and means Russia can't simply do whatever they want whenever they want. I think this is going to result in a situation not too unlike Avdeevka/Bakhmut/Soledar where Ukrainians can't retreat and eventually get bottled up into cities. We have seen that song and dance before so I won't discuss that too much.
This will be a hard fight that is probably going to take at least a month or so. There will still be movement in the south and it may even be quick and impressive but I think this will eventually turn into the main show.
But once that is done and some of the other defensive lines in the south are taken Ukraine will be much more open to attack. If reports about the situation west of Avdeevka are true Ukraine is having trouble having infantry even construct basic trenches because they keep getting harassed by drones.
Taking one part of a line invalidates the rest of the line unless it has another line bisecting it that prevents the Russians from moving horizontally. This lines definitely make things take longer.
Which brings up something I think might happen as this war develops. Ukrainians without fortifications will be extremely vulnerable out in the open. The obvious thing to do and what Ukrainians have done in the past is retreat to cities and use them as Ersatz fortifications. This will eventually leave Russia with a decision to make once it starts getting to places like Dnipro, Poltava and Kharkov. Does Russia spend a lot time and resources taking those cities or do they bypass them. I am leaning towards Russia eventually bypassing those cities and leaving a small amount of troops surrounding the city and slowly destroy the Ukrainian defenders over time rather than stopping to take the city and then keep going.
I think Russia will do this because they want to maximize the pressure they put on Ukraine. The slower they move the more time Ukraine has to train up troops and try and build new defensives.
Which brings me into the question of is Maneuver war still possible? My answer to that is yes but probably not in the WW2 Germans surrounding everyone in a blitzkrieg manner. Driving a narrow line through enemy territory is a bad idea. The problem is simply that the more you drive a deep but narrow line into the enemy the more and more you open yourself up to enemy fire. Perimeter minimization comes into play here.
If that is true why had Russia had such a hard time implementing it? This is the impetuous that made me write this. The reason Russia has had so much trouble in the Donbass is because it is incredibly Urban. This is what made it possible for Ukraine to build fortifications. Look at the Donbas and how many cities it has. Once Russia breaks out of the Donbas it will be much easier to just drive north and capture everything. There will be hardly any cities in the way. It will also help that Ukraine will be degraded to all hell by the time Russia gets there.
Also the past few months they have been dropping heavy FABs in demolishing buildings and the reports of destroyed Ukrainians SAMs from Russia have to be true because you need 10km altitudes to drop 40-50km range glide bombs whenever you want.
fundraising initiative to purchase 10,000 drones for Ukraine has surpassed its goal in a matter of days. They wound up raising more than 5.4 million Euros, and will instead purchase 13,300 drones, which will be transferred into Ukrainian military service.
