Live Conflict Ukraine-Russia War

[contricusc]

Let's just say I have a political preference, and that political preference basically requires all of those states to collapse and I have newfound respect for the fact that those groups you mentioned is doing the right thing to make this a reality.

I do not have any control over what's happening and who's doing it. But funnily enough, everything in that region is working to my liking.

If all those states collapse, there will be more wars, death, famine and misery for the people in the Middle East. If this is your political preference, you are very deranged.

 

[Gary]

If all those states collapse, there will be more wars, death, famine and misery for the people in the Middle East. If this is your political preference, you are very deranged.

They have two options going forward:

1. Get rid of Western influence and ideas VOLUNTARILY
2. OR faced destruction

==============================================================================================
anyways, German opposition is shifting its stance on German aid to Ukraine

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1805843685839388676

 

[Bogeyman]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1805853302615117956

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1805871255922327656

“Ukrainians are dying for Kazakhstan” Cameron is prank called by Vovan and Lexus and gets says some interesting things:
1) Nothing will change with the new government in UK for Ukraine 1:47
2) Americans and Germans are not doing enough and need convincing 3:02
3) The west would appreciate if Macron would calm down on the idea of sending troops 3:40
4) Cameron had dinner with Trump and talked about aid for Ukraine 5:23
5) Trump is unpredictable for them 6:28
6) No NATO invitation for Ukraine in the upcoming summit 7:18
7) Russian assets 9:16 8) Putin wants more, even Kazakhstan 10:57 9) Putin is upset about Armenia l, Russian power is waning 12:54

 

[UkroTurk]

Zgurets explained why the Russian Federation can actually deploy a new army in Ukraine


june 26, 2024, wednesday



Defense Express analyst Serhiy Zgurets commented on the probability of transferring additional forces of the Russian Federation to the Kharkiv direction He told about this on Espresso.
"Actually, there are nuances here. Two Ukrainian spokesmen said that one motorized infantry brigade from the 51st Army is being transferred to the Kharkiv direction. For the first time, the 51st Army is mentioned without details. The size of the army can be different, it can range from 20,000 to 50,000, but these are theoretical calculations. Because now, against the background of the Russians' desire to form new structures, all these units have a sufficiently limited number and limited armament," said Zgurets.

Now we enter from the fact that the Russians have about 170,000 personnel stretched along the front line. General reserves amount to 60-70 thousand, he noted. "The issue of the army is rather a process of forming new units, from which more or less ready units are actually emerging to plug holes on the front or to form some offensive capabilities. If this is a separate half-formed brigade, from the composition of the not yet formed 51st Army, which thrown in the Kharkiv direction, this just shows that the enemy's losses are such that he does not have time to form the declared armies and uses what is on the battlefield," Zgurets summarized.


Analysts of the American Institute for the Study of War analyzed the probability of Russia creating a new combined army to transfer forces to the Kharkiv direction.

 

[Afif]

And the biggest problem for China is its dependence on trade. An economy like China’s would quickly collapse when put under maritime blockade. China won’t be able to last very long if maritime trade is cut off, and the US can easily block all maritime trade to China in a war situation.

This assumption is incorrect. USA won't be able to cut off PRC easily while at the same time protecting their own routes. US joint force will have to fight their toughest since WW2. While I do think they will ultimately prevail given fight takes place within next 15 years, but that will come at a very very great cost.

 

[Gary]

Another town called Razodolovka taken by Russia, every day the Russian army advance

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1805980274359947341

 

[Gary]

This assumption is incorrect. USA won't be able to cut off PRC easily while at the same time protecting their own routes. US joint force will have to fight their toughest since WW2. While I do think they will ultimately prevail given fight takes place within next 15 years, but that will come at a very very great cost.

The US will be fighting inside the very jaws of Chinese A2/AD. A lot of their ships will burn.

Without those ships, their ability to supply their NATO ally in Europe and most (importantly) to enforce their order on top of the world will diminish.

 

[Spitfire9]

The US will be fighting inside the very jaws of Chinese A2/AD. A lot of their ships will burn.

Without those ships, their ability to supply their NATO ally in Europe and most (importantly) to enforce their order on top of the world will diminish.

You think that if the US loses some navy ships near Taiwan, Europe will be cut off from supplies across the Atlantic from America?

PS I don't understand how China would use air to air defences to sink warships.

 

[Gary]

"Freedom" and "Democracy" are such a weak and shallow ideology that people are (literally) dragged to fight for it.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1805987447290880009

 

[Afif]

You think that if the US loses some navy ships near Taiwan, Europe will be cut off from supplies across the Atlantic from America?

PS I don't understand how China would use air to air defences to sink warships.

He didn't say, air defence would sink ships.

One of the major cocnern for USN is to protect transatlantic cable network.

 

[Gary]

You think that if the US loses some navy ships near Taiwan, Europe will be cut off from supplies across the Atlantic from America?

PS I don't understand how China would use air to air defences to sink warships.

1. Not some, but a lot of ships will be destroyed

2. You're an ignorant. A2/AD stands for Anti Access/Area Denial. Everything that hampers military movement inside an area is A2/AD. That includes the many AShM missile batteries China employed in the SCS.

 

[RMZN]

Any information about how many "flight hours" Ukrainian/Russian FPV operators have on average?

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1805620845684965429

 

[Soldier30]

An episode of an attack by a Ukrainian armored group, consisting of a T-64 tank and a BMP-2, on Russian positions, the location of the filming is not reported, the video has been shortened. The Ukrainian group, using the factor of surprise and high speed, tried to take the Russian position. As a result of the battle, the T-64 tank was hit by Russian artillery, perhaps it was a strike from an FPV drone; judging by the video, the tank’s crew abandoned the combat vehicle. The BMP-2 continued the attack and began landing troops, but the landing force was hit by an ammunition drop from a drone.

 

[Bogeyman]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1806023109939806524

North Korea to deploy engineer units in Ukraine.

 

[Spitfire9]

1. Not some, but a lot of ships will be destroyed

2. You're an ignorant. A2/AD stands for Anti Access/Area Denial. Everything that hampers military movement inside an area is A2/AD. That includes the many AShM missile batteries China employed in the SCS.

Indeed, I was ignorant of the acronym A2/AD. My apologies for that.

 

[Spitfire9]

He didn't say, air defence would sink ships.

One of the major cocnern for USN is to protect transatlantic cable network.

I can understand that.

 

[Gary]

Oh yeah btw, dear Ukraine lots of love of love here from Gary

It seems your ally, Israel, is on its way to once again rob you of your desperately needed artillery shells and patriot missiles.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1806007261724131612

 

[contricusc]

This assumption is incorrect. USA won't be able to cut off PRC easily while at the same time protecting their own routes. US joint force will have to fight their toughest since WW2. While I do think they will ultimately prevail given fight takes place within next 15 years, but that will come at a very very great cost.

It would be very easy for the US to cut China’s maritime trade routes, because it doesn’t have to do it in China’s proximity.

Oil supplies from the Middle East could be cut at source or through threats on the exporting countries.

All trade from the Indian Ocean can be cut through the Straits of Malacca or in Indonesian waters, far away from China.

Iron ore and coal imports from Australia will be cut off as Australia is a US ally. Brazil could be forced to cut iron ore exports as well through the threat of sanctions or the large bulk carriers simply arrested.

With little effort and far from China’s shores, the US can cut its access to oil and iron ore, two vital components for China’s economy without which it cannot function properly. If food imports are also strained, and this could also be easily done since the largest sources of Chinese food imports are the US and Brazil, the Chinese population could eventually starve and revolt.

The dependence on trade from far away countries and the ability of the US navy to control the oceans makes China extremely vulnerable to any US maritime blockade. That’s why I think the Chinese will not attack Taiwan in the near future.

 

[Afif]

It would be very easy for the US to cut China’s maritime trade routes, because it doesn’t have to do it in China’s proximity.

Oil supplies from the Middle East could be cut at source or through threats on the exporting countries.

All trade from the Indian Ocean can be cut through the Straits of Malacca or in Indonesian waters, far away from China.

Iron ore and coal imports from Australia will be cut off as Australia is a US ally. Brazil could be forced to cut iron ore exports as well through the threat of sanctions or the large bulk carriers simply arrested.

With little effort and far from China’s shores, the US can cut its access to oil and iron ore, two vital components for China’s economy without which it cannot function properly. If food imports are also strained, and this could also be easily done since the largest sources of Chinese food imports are the US and Brazil, the Chinese population could eventually starve and revolt.

The dependence on trade from far away countries and the ability of the US navy to control the oceans makes China extremely vulnerable to any US maritime blockade. That’s why I think the Chinese will not attack Taiwan in the near future.

Ah, you seems to think Chinese navy can't sail.

 

[Relic]

Oh yeah btw, dear Ukraine lots of love of love here from Gary

It seems your ally, Israel, is on its way to once again rob you of your desperately needed artillery shells and patriot missiles.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1806007261724131612

Israel is in the process of retiring all of their Patriot Batteries. They've fully switched their air defense to Iron Dome, David's Sling, Arrow-3 and they are working on Iron Beam. Israel's HAWK and Patriot Battries have been / are in the process of being moved into reserve and will eventually be sold off all together.

The United States will not be focused on sending Israel PAC-2 and / or PAC-3 Patriot interceptors. Rather, they will be sending them missiles for their other systems.

Ukraine very much is the priority for Patriot missiles right now. Germany and the United States are building 500 PAC-2 and PAC-3 missiles every year at moment and they are in the process of increasing that number to 650 missiles per year by the end of 2025. Meanwhile, Japan is now building PAC-2 missiles under license, at an undisclosed rate (I've seen 200-300 per year suggested) which will be used to backfill U.S. inventories in the same way South Korea backfills U.S. 155mm artillery shell inventories.

With 7 Patriot Batteries now committed to Ukraine, there will be no shortage of PAC-2 and / PAC-3 missiles in the near future. They just received another 100 missiles from a collection of European countries, followed by a seperate delivery from Spain . Meanwhile, the U.S. has been sending them by the dozens for quite some time.

Understand that Patriot will only be used going forward for the following, due to Ukraine's ever increasing tier 2 and Tier 3 air defense, plenty capable of taking down drones and cruise missiles.

1. Cruise missiles used in saturation attacks that overwhelm other systems and threaten the critical civilian / military infrastructure that Patriot is defending

2. Ballistic missiles that travel too fast and / or attack from trajectories that other western donated air defense systems can't handle.

3. To ambush Russian fighter / bomber aircraft thaylt stray inside Patriot's envelope.