Live Conflict Ukraine-Russia War

[FiReFTW]

What has happened? Russia decided to attack Ukraine, expecting Ukraine to fold in a few days by the Red army taking Kiev. Unexpectedly that did not happen. A large number of countries then decided to support Ukraine by supplying it with weapons. Many countries that supplied weapons to Ukraine forbade Ukraine to use them to strike at targets in Russia, such as military bases used to strike Ukraine.

Tell me, are North Korea and Iran supplying weapons to Russia with the proviso that they must not be used to strike at military bases within Ukraine? I don't think so.

What Ukraine is asking is for permission to use the weapons it has to undermine Russia's ability to attack it by hitting at the source of those attacks inside Russia. In my view it is logical and legal for a country under attack to try to reduce the incidence of attacks it suffers by striking at their source.

Escalation: the ultimate escalation is to replace a state of peace with a state of war, as Russia has done.

Ukraine does not have nuclear weapons so obviously no, but you don't want to play with someone who does have, the most nuclear weapons in the world, I mean how st*pid can you get... even zelensky said Ukraine has no interest in going after russian territory or attacking russian territory a while ago, now suddenly lone and behold he changes his mind, i wonder why.

 

[contricusc]

Ukraine does not have nuclear weapons so obviously no, but you don't want to play with someone who does have, the most nuclear weapons in the world, I mean how st*pid can you get... even zelensky said Ukraine has no interest in going after russian territory or attacking russian territory a while ago, now suddenly lone and behold he changes his mind, i wonder why.

You seem to be very concerned about the escalation made by Western nations, but you always forget that the only real escalation was made by Russia when it invaded.

Russia can easily deescalate the conflict anytime it wants to, not through nuclear weapons, but by withdrawing from Ukraine and making peace.

If Russia is concerned that NATO tanks will be at the gates of Moscow, it can simply withdraw from Ukraine now and there will be peace again, and nobody will bomb or invade Russia. Pretty simple and cheap solution. It doesn’t cost them money or soldiers.

As long as Russia is in Ukraine, NATO should escalate as much as it wants, because Russia always has the “cheat card” of ending the conflict whenever it has had enough, by withdrawing from Ukraine.

 

[Relic]

USA announced some of it's current production numbers for some the most important munitions it sends to Ukraine. They are as follows...

155mm artillery shells
Current production rates
Per month: 40,000
Per year: 480,000

2025 target production rates
Per month: 80,000
Per year: 960,000

GMLRS
Current production rates
Per month: 833-1167
Per year: 9,986-14,004

2025 target production rates
Per month: 1167
Per year: 14,004

Javelin
Current production rates
Per month: 175-200
Per year: 2100-2400

2025 target production rates
Per month: 250
Per year: 3000

AIM-9X
Current production rates
Per month: 116-137
Per year: 1392-1644

2025 target production rates
Per month: 208
Per year: 2500

PAC-3 Patriot Missile
Current production rates
Per month: 42
Per year: 504

2015 target production rates
Per month: 46
Per year: 552

Fact Sheet on Efforts of Ukraine Defense Contact Group – National Armaments Directors

Focused on accelerating capability deliveries to Ukraine by synchronizing international procurement, production, and sustainment efforts, the National Armaments Directors under the auspices of the

www.defense.gov

 

[TheInsider]

Artillery shells have a long way to catch up to the Russian production levels but combined NATO production should be close to the Russian level. This is also proof that air-defense missiles can't win the war in the long run against cruise and ballistic missiles. 500 Patriot PAC-3 is not enough. Russian total cruise and ballistic missile production should be at least double that amount. Chinese have automated factories to produce cruise missiles. I wouldn't be surprised if the Chinese can produce a thousand cruise missiles per month. It is a lost cause.

 

[contricusc]

Artillery shells have a long way to catch up to the Russian production levels but combined NATO production should be close to the Russian level. This is also proof that air-defense missiles can't win the war in the long run against cruise and ballistic missiles. 500 Patriot PAC-3 is not enough. Russian total cruise and ballistic missile production should be at least double that amount. Chinese have automated factories to produce cruise missiles. I wouldn't be surprised if the Chinese can produce a thousand cruise missiles per month. It is a lost cause.

Air-defense is a losing game. Expensive and ineffective. If you want to win against cruise and ballistic missiles, you need to overpower thier launch platforms and destroy the enemy’s ability to strike. Now add the cheap drones into the equation, and air-defense is even less effective, as it gets saturated by cheap drone waves.

 

[Soldier30]

An episode of an attempt to break through a Ukrainian armored group, into the territory of the Kursk region of Russia, in the Glushkovsky district. To overcome anti-tank obstacles, an IMR-2 engineering vehicle of Soviet manufacture is used. The main purpose of the IMR-2: creating column routes in difficult-to-pass places for the advancement of troops, the Soviet army began using the IMR-2 in 1982. Now it is used by Russia and Ukraine. The advance of the Ukrainian armored group was stopped, the video shows the explosion of one of the IMR-2 engineering vehicles of the group.

 

[Soldier30]

Episode of the march throw of the Russian armored group, storming the mine "Yuzhnodonbasskaya №3", this is the Ukrainian division of the Ukrainian army on the Ugledarsky direction. Previously, Russian aviation worked on the mine with FAB bombs and artillery, you can see it in the video. The composition of the armored group, presumably BMP-2 and BMP-3. The group broke through, but one of the BMPs hit a mine, the crew abandoned the combat vehicle. During the march throw, the group was worked by Ukrainian long-range artillery from the Bogatyr area.

 

[Ryder]

Nato/Western weapon systems also have their fair share of duds like the Russians.

Lots of thinking and going back to the drawing board.

 

[Relic]

Artillery shells have a long way to catch up to the Russian production levels but combined NATO production should be close to the Russian level. This is also proof that air-defense missiles can't win the war in the long run against cruise and ballistic missiles. 500 Patriot PAC-3 is not enough. Russian total cruise and ballistic missile production should be at least double that amount. Chinese have automated factories to produce cruise missiles. I wouldn't be surprised if the Chinese can produce a thousand cruise missiles per month. It is a lost cause.

A couple things I disagree with here.

1. The West doesn't have to match Russia's production of 155mm artillery shells. In fact, they don't really have to even come close. What they do need to reach is a level in which Ukraine can fire 3000'ish 155mm shells per day, supplemented by 105mm, 122mm and 152mm artillery shells. 155mm shells and the systems that fire them (M109, M777, Panzerhaubitze 2000, CAESAR, Archer, etc) are of higher quality, greater range and better accuracy than the overwhelming majority of the Russian systems they oppose. What Ukraine needs is a steady flow of domestically built Bohdanas, supplemented by the various Western systems. That will be enough to hammer Russian armor as advances and significantly outrange most of Russia's systems.

2. People misunderstand what PAC 2 and PAC 3 Patriot missiles are actually use for. Along with ASTER 30 missiles fired by the tier 1 SAMP-T systems donated by France and Italy, Patriot missiles are saved to intercept Russian balistic missiles that other systems can't handle. Specifically, they are used near Kyiv, Lviv and Kharkiv and important Ukrainian military installations. Patriot missiles are not fired unless Ukraine is trying to intercept Iskanders, Kinhzals or the odd cruise missile that slips through the layers of other systems. For that reason, Ukraine doesn't need thousands of PAC 2, PAC 3 and ASTER 30 missiles per year. They need enough to ensure that their key cities and military facilities are well protected from balistic missiles strikes.

Shahed drones and Russian cruise missiles can be handled by a combination of multiple systems. IRIS-T, NASAMS, HAWK, Gepard, Crotale, FrankenSAM (RIM-7), Martlett, Avenger (Stinger), Vampire and even Soviet systems such as BUK, KUB, Strela-10 etc. Those systems can be further helped by the MiG-29s, SU-27s and F-16s flying air cover and operating as airborne air defense... What most people don't realize is that the majority of IRIS-T, NASAMS, etc have not even arrived in Ukraine yet. Their air defense is only going to stiffen in 2025 and beyond. Patriot is only part of that equation. There are much more cost effective systems for intercepting the majority of Russia's projectiles than Patriot. That said, USA isn't the only one building them. PAC 2 GEM-T are built in Germany as well and Mitsubishi is going to build them under license in Japan .

Air defense is just one part of the process. The destruction of Russian launch sites near the border will help Ukraine create greater buffer zones.

 

[Relic]

USA officials have mentioned that they will announce a substantial new military aid package for Ukraine before the end of September. They haven't specified if it will come from PDA or USAI, but with $5.8 Billion usd worth of PDA remaining + approximately $3.0 billion leftover from previous counting errors, I'd look for a package from PDA worth around $2.5 Billion usd.

Here is what I would like to see sent in a new PDA package...

100 Bradley IFVs
100 Stryker APCs
200 M113 APCs
200 MRAPS
18 M109A6 howitzers
10 Avenger Air Defense Systems
JASSM Cruise Missiles
JDAMS
HAARM Missiles
AIM-120C AMRAAMs
AIM-9M/X Sidewinders
RIM-7 Missiles
HAWK Missiles
Stinger Missiles
Hydra-70 Rockets
155mm Artillery Shells
105mm Artillery Shells
GMLRS
TOW Missiles
Javelin Anti-Armor Systems
AT4 Anti-Armor Rockets
Assault Rifles
Small Arms Ammunition

Ukraine currently has tens of thousands of new troops training across Europe and in Ukraine proper. They are in significant need of a substantial resupply of armor, artillery, missiles and ATGMs to equip new brigades. Furthermore, a signicant number of JASSM cruise missiles and JDAMS would increase the lethality of F-16s, increasing their long and medium range strike capacity.

 

[Soldier30]

An episode of the evacuation of a Russian tank, presumably a T-55A, near the village of Vodyanoy. It is unknown what kind of combat vehicle is conducting the evacuation. It is possible that it is also a T-55 tank with a dismantled gun, or a VT-55A tracked tractor created on the basis of a T-55 tank. At the time of the evacuation, Ukrainian artillery is actively working. The evacuation of equipment was carried out by a Russian serviceman with the call sign "Petrovich", as reported, he has carried out about 30 evacuations of damaged equipment.

 

[Soldier30]

Episode of the breakthrough of the Russian airborne assault unit of the 106th Tula Airborne Division on the BMD-2, to the village of Snagost, Kursk region of Russia. The video was filmed on September 9, 2024, at that time, the village was controlled by the Ukrainian army. The BMD-2 was not alone, six BMDs, three tanks and several infantry fighting vehicles were used. The column of military equipment advanced from the village of Kornevo, towards the village of Snagost, passing through the checkpoints of the Ukrainian army, the column divided into three parts and entered the village of Snagost. For three days, the units held a circular defense, waiting for the main forces to arrive. Presumably, this is not the first group to enter the village.

 

[Deliorman]

What is Air Defense doing?

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1836270948246261860

 

[Soldier30]

Episode with the evacuation of a Ukrainian 1A3 "Marder" BMP of German manufacture by a Russian BREM-1 repair and recovery vehicle. The video was presumably filmed in the Kursk region of Russia. The 1A3 "Marder" BMP is equipped with a homemade protection against drones, in the form of a small "barbecue" on the turret.

 

[Soldier30]

A powerful fire and explosions have broken out at the Russian 107th arsenal of the Main Missile and Artillery Directorate in the Tver Region. The video shows what is believed to be footage of a fire, although this has not yet been officially confirmed. Recently, the ammunition depot in Toropets has been the target of attacks by Ukrainian drones several times. Unofficially, the fire was caused by fallen debris from a Ukrainian drone. The 107th arsenal was used to store various ammunition, including 122-mm rockets for the Grad MLRS and 82-mm artillery mines, and there may have been missiles as well. It is worth noting that the construction of the 107th arsenal in 2018 was overseen by Deputy Minister of Defense of Russia, General of the Army Dmitry Bulgakov. At that time, Dmitry Bulgakov said that an arsenal for storing missiles and ammunition that meets the highest world standards would be put into operation in Toropets. Currently, General of the Army Dmitry Bulgakov has been detained in a criminal case of corruption. According to the latest information, the Governor of the Tver Region Igor Rudenya has decided to partially evacuate the population from the city of Toropets, where work is underway to extinguish a fire and repel an attack by drones. The administration of the Toropets Municipal District announced an evacuation to the city of Zapadnaya Dvina by bus. A hotline for local residents on evacuation issues has been opened.

 

[Relic]

More footage of the drone strike on the ammunition depot at Toropets, the most significant strike on an ammunition depot of the war to this point. The 107th arsenal held more than 30,000 tons of ammunition, missiles, bombs, rockets and artillery shells. Ukraine devastated it with a drone strike. It's expected to explode and burn for many, many hours...

One can only hope that the people in the region have to evacuate and are displaced for a long period of time. Couldn't happen to worse people than the ardent supporters of Putin's war.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1836270948246261860

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1836264666592383070

 

[Soldier30]

Ukrainian media reported on the use of the Admiral-Avianosets UAV, a carrier of FPV drones, by the Russian army, this was confirmed by Russian sources. The Admiral UAV delivers an FPV drone to the combat zone, the UAV also functions as a communications repeater. The use of UAV carriers allows increasing the range of FPV drones from 15 to 40 km, in addition, the patrol time of the territory increases and the effectiveness of electronic warfare decreases.

 

[Relic]

Germany announced the delivery of an extensive new military aid package for Ukraine. As is always the case, Germany only announces deliveries after they've been made. The German aid package consists of the following...

- 3 Gepard Air Defense Systems
- 2 TRML-4D Air Defense RADARS
- 22 Leopard 1A5 MBTs
- 22 MRAPs
- 5 Bandvagn 206 APCs
- 6 WISENT-1 Mine Clearing Tanks
- 3 BEAVER Bridge Laying Tanks
- 1 DACHS Engineering Vehicle
- 1 Warthog Command Vehicle
- 112 All Terrain Vehicles
- 8 Zetros Tankers
- 61,000 155mm Artillery Shells
- 10 MG3 Machine Guns
- 1 million rounds of ammunition
- 30 Vector Reconnaissance Drones
- 20 Heidrun Reconnaissance Drones
- 12 Songbird Reconnaissance Drones
- 20 Sea Drones
- 6 Hornet XR Drones
- 16 Ground Surveillance RADARS
- 2 AMPS Self-Protection Systems
- Explosive Ordinance and Materials
- 2 Border Protection Vehicles

Military support for Ukraine | Federal Government

War in Ukraine: This list provides an overview of Germany’s lethal and non-lethal military support for Ukraine.

www.bundesregierung.de

 

[Relic]

USA Congress is preparing legislation that will extend by 1 year the authority of the U.S. Government to provide $7.0 Billion usd in Presidential Drawdown Authority for Ukraine. That $7.0 Billion in funding is set to expire in 11 days, however, when the bill passes that approval authority will continue until October, 2025.

What makes PDA so powerful is that weapons drawn from exisiting U.S. inventories are valued in depreciated fashion, rather than at present value. For example, instead of a Bradley Infantry Fighting Vehicle being valued at the current $4.4 million usd price tag USA pays for the latest model, the variant being sent to Ukraine is valued at an estimated depreciated value of $1.0 million usd. That means using PDA USA can send 4.5 Bradleys to Ukraine for the same price as it costs them to procure a new unit.

https://www.reuters.com/world/us/us-congress-nears-agreement-extending-expiring-ukraine-aid-sources-say-2024-09-19/

 

[Relic]

The first batch of 60 Gepard Air Defense Systems that USA purchased from Jordan apparently arrived in Ukraine in 2024, with an additional, undisclosed number of units arriving monthly. The total value of the U.S. purchase from Jordan was $110 million usd.

Germany has committed 67 Gepard Air Defense Systems and USA has purchased the other 60 units from Jordan. Of those 127 units, approximately half have been delivered with the remainder expected to arrive in country throughout the rest of 2024 and 2025.

Gepard is an extremely important system for Ukraine because it's an ideal system for intercepting Russian Shahed Drones in a cost effective manner. Every Gepard system strategically placed enables Ukraine to save an IRIS-T, HAWK, Crotale, Stinger, Martlett, ASRAAM, AIM-7, RIM-7, AIM-9 or AMRAAM air defense missile for a more important target such as a cruise missile. The ability to place multiple Gepard systems in each Ukrainian city and around each military installation, greatly strengthens Ukraine's depth of air defense.