Live Conflict Ukraine-Russia War

[Perun]

What weapons does it actually need to be effective? Do we know if they have a set counteroffensive date and the right amount of bodies? Ukraine wants a lot of things but demands are difficult if the West is trying to produce what they can for them without it constantly getting destroyed by Russians.
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(Edit: Don't care about location through ad only there for business travel than actual location residence)

They have already received and used such weapons already, I am assuming it's a production problem for the West for not giving more

Please could you post link for this posts

 

[blackjack]

Please could you post link for this posts

Log in to create account sinodefense forum, Ukraine war thread all tam posts. Not allowed to post other forum links

 

[UkroTurk]

Gratefully security of Ukraine is not in the N.Koreans' hands. Ukraine does not figh just for its independence, The country also fights against militarist communism. Sacred war of humanity.

 

[Perun]

Log in to create account sinodefense forum, Ukraine war thread all tam posts. Not allowed to post other forum links

Thanks

 

[SilverMachine]

Contric, you don't seem to get this. You're talking in "should"s again, and there's zero disagreement on my end.

Ukraine "should" be free of Russia. They just won't be, because geopolitics is a thing and they've been dealt a shit hand in that respect. No, they're not being allowed into NATO anytime soon (ever), not because it's inconceivable they can clean up their corruption problem and go a while as a peaceful European-contributing country (they likely can), rather because Russia won't ever stand for Ukraine being in NATO and that's the path of least resistance we've all agreed to over the decades. Russia gets their buffer zone, don't fuck around in Ukraine trying to tempt them over to the west - all pre-Obama leaders understood this.

Look, I'm of half the mind that we *should* have started WWIII over Ukraine and immediately had US/European troops on the ground in Ukraine fighting Russians. If we actually stand for what we say we do, "WWII changed things and you can't just go around invading countries anymore!", that's what should happen, morally.

But stuff doesn't work that way, morality doesn't come into it, and therefore we're hypocrites and unwilling to step up to the plate and fight them directly. It's not "right", it's just how things have to be assuming you're not wanting to start stacking bodies by the millions.

You like to say things like "Ukraine should have the last word on Ukraine". It's admirable. It just doesn't mean shit when said Ukrainians left to have said last word on things number in at about 3. At a point here its "talk to Russia or die" when you boil it right down. Things are getting worse over there by the day, they're not going to prevail in this thing in any military or territorial-integrity sense. Better to save some of Ukraine than get ground all the way down and have to give up even more of it inevitably.

Even Zelensky's tone by now is basically just "we hope to get bailed out with further western intervention as a miracle", that's what his 'victory plan' looks like. The help isn't coming. His generals have voiced as much, and Zelensky ousted the top one for giving a sober assessment of their situation months ago.

 

[FiReFTW]

Don't even bother with that guy I stopped responding to him a while ago, he is just someone who got screwed over by some Russian or Russians and had deep hate for Russia so he is blinded.

The fact is (undisputedly) that Ukraine is a corrupt and primitive country, same as Russia, after all it was part of Russia not long ago, or USSR whatever you prefer.
It's basically the same it had the same system for decades.

The ONLY and I mean ONLY reason the west is even supporting Ukraine is because they want to inflict as much damage possible to Russia, nothing else.

 

[Spitfire9]

The ONLY and I mean ONLY reason the west is even supporting Ukraine is because they want to inflict as much damage possible to Russia, nothing else.

You are wrong to speak with such simplicity and certainty. It may be the case that the US sees the Russian attack on Ukraine as an opportunity to weaken Russia. To ascribe this motive to all western countries supporting Ukraine while presenting nothing to support that view is deeply unconvincing.

 

[SilverMachine]

I don't agree with the "nothing else" part, Fire, there's actual legitimate sympathy for Ukraine in the west, we're not helping them *just* to wear down Putin's machine. But it's certainly a part of it, for sure.

But yeah, it's definitely always been in Russia's circle of interest, at least the last century or two after it was Polish & Swedish. It's no surprise at all that Ukraine was the red line for them as far as American influence, everyone knew that. Putin's both in the wrong here and the whole thing was inevitable, just like the outcome will be in a year or two with Ukraine half the size it was beforehand.

 

[FiReFTW]

You are wrong to speak with such simplicity and certainty. It may be the case that the US sees the Russian attack on Ukraine as an opportunity to weaken Russia. To ascribe this motive to all western countries supporting Ukraine while presenting nothing to support that view is deeply unconvincing.

Ok you are right, not everyone sees it this way but the majority does.

 

[Anastasius]

You seem to think Ukraine is somewhere far away (like Canada is for Russia), ... or from the Kremlin.

It seems the main point of disagreement between you and SilverMachine is that he thinks Russia being pressed even slightly more on Ukraine means they will unleash the nuclear option and go all out. It's a "red line" for them. You seem to disagree and think that Russia is more cowardly than they project.

I personally think that Russia doesn't actually give as much of a f**k about Ukraine as they pretend to and their interests there are primarily a) economical and b) trying to save face. They probably will back down if NATO throws down the glove and dares them to bring it on but who the hell knows.

 

[blackjack]

With how fast the pace is going with the front lines looking like they are collapsing. Anyone have a guess estimate on when the Russians will reach the Dnieper river with their new pace?

 

[contricusc]

It seems the main point of disagreement between you and SilverMachine is that he thinks Russia being pressed even slightly more on Ukraine means they will unleash the nuclear option and go all out. It's a "red line" for them. You seem to disagree and think that Russia is more cowardly than they project.

I personally think that Russia doesn't actually give as much of a f**k about Ukraine as they pretend to and their interests there are primarily a) economical and b) trying to save face. They probably will back down if NATO throws down the glove and dares them to bring it on but who the hell knows.

Yes, you summed it up well. I think that Russia would give up on Ukraine if pressured hard enough, but so far even the economic sanctions have not been implemented seriously, and they were designed in a way to keep Russia afloat and able to fight.

 

[Iskander]

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With how fast the pace is going with the front lines looking like they are collapsing. Anyone have a guess estimate on when the Russians will reach the Dnieper river with their new pace?

“New pace of Russians”?

Well what can I say? Everything is in sight. This is a real blitzkrieg. Germans compared to Russians are just stupid children

Oh yes, the Dnieper... They will come, of course. By the end of this century

 

[blackjack]

“New pace of Russians”?

Well what can I say? Everything is in sight. This is a real blitzkrieg. Germans compared to Russians are just stupid children

Oh yes, the Dnieper... They will come, of course. By the end of this century

Hope it doesn't take a century for Ukraine for their next counteroffensive to get the right amount of manpower they need. I heard their last 2 incursions to russia didn't seem to go so well

 

[SilverMachine]

Yes, you summed it up well. I think that Russia would give up on Ukraine if pressured hard enough, but so far even the economic sanctions have not been implemented seriously, and they were designed in a way to keep Russia afloat and able to fight.

Why would they 'give up on Ukraine'? They consider it theirs, or at least in their zone of interest politically, geographically, culturally, historically, strategically. They're not going to give up on it any more than Ukraine's going to, doesn't matter what's written on a piece of paper as 'international law'.

The other guy brought nukes into the equation and sure that's a *possibility*, it's not even quite what I'm getting at here though. Even a conventional hot war with Russia is something Putin & Co are well aware the west wants no part of (even though, yes, the west would win that showdown, duh). They're not going to 'give up on' Ukraine for the simple reason that they've called our bluff, they know we don't have the stomach or will for a fight like that anymore. Certainly not over a little place like Ukraine that, let's be honest, about 3 years ago Average Joe/Jane American or Brit or whatever basically just thought of as "Russia-lite" anyway. All of those former-Soviet states blend together for the normies, and every western leader's damn well cognisant of the fact their population has no appetite whatsoever for sending their sons over there to teach Big Meanie Russia a lesson on good international etiquette. Or be responsible with providing stuff to rain hellfire down on Russian cities with.

Hence the needle-thread of "we'll send you cash & goodwill & weapons to a point, if you can survive then great, but we're not guaranteeing it by really kicking into high gear to stomp them out".

It's about all you can do, and it's obviously not going to be enough. Sucks, but better than the alternative, that's the western calculation. "If Putin's dumb enough to go into Poland then obviously it's fucking on, but Ukraine's a pretty unique situation not rising to that bar. Best of luck, homies, here's some boom-booms we can spare, just don't do anything stupid with them."

 

[blackjack]

Pretty hard to believe the nuke option but it would have been believable if the Ukrainians were close to pushing the Russians out of Ukraine.

The funny part I realized about this thread is one pro-ukraine user says we are not giving Ukraine enough while another pro-ukraine user likes to posts all the goods and equipment Ukraine gets. @contricusc @Relic you two want to say something to each other and the rest of us just to clear up any confusion?

 

[Spitfire9]

Why would they 'give up on Ukraine'? They consider it theirs, or at least in their zone of interest politically, geographically, culturally, historically, strategically. They're not going to give up on it any more than Ukraine's going to, doesn't matter what's written on a piece of paper as 'international law'.

The people who hold power in the nominally democratic republic of Russia have no interest in the wishes of the people of the country. So yes, I think that Russia will continue trying to subjugate Ukraine and its people until forced to stop. I don't think that will be due to western military aid.

I think severe economic problems are heading Russia's way. Exactly what state the Russian economy is in cannot be known for sure since the data are either no longer published by the government or cannot be trusted. Two pieces of data that cannot be concealed and can be trusted are the exchange rate and the central bank interest rate. Both of those look bad. I expect the ruble to weaken further and the central bank interest rate to be raised further, squeezing company profitability and depressing investment.

If Russia decides to stop attacking its neighbour, I think it will be due to acute economic problems forcing it to shelve its failed Blitzkrieg, to be wheeled out another time - assuming Ukraine has not joined a defence pact including the US or EU.

 

[Relic]

Pretty hard to believe the nuke option but it would have been believable if the Ukrainians were close to pushing the Russians out of Ukraine.

The funny part I realized about this thread is one pro-ukraine user says we are not giving Ukraine enough while another pro-ukraine user likes to posts all the goods and equipment Ukraine gets. @contricusc @Relic you two want to say something to each other and the rest of us just to clear up any confusion?

Lol, you're mischaracterizing my opinion. Never have I said that Ukraine has received enough material to win this war. But I'm making the correct observation that Ukraine IS receiving enough aid to not lose the war any time soon, while the Russian Army's vaunted Soviet stockpile is dwindling at a pace exponentially faster than they can replace it at.

Remember that the Western goal is to ensure than Ukraine remains an independent (and Western leaning) country, while simultaneously destroying Russia's offensive combat capabilities for a generation.

The West is incredibly frustrating, but they're doing exactly what they need to to make this war insanely costly for Russia.

 

[Ryder]

The thing with the peace deal in 2022 March that was rejected.

It was basically Ukraine capitulating to Russia.

Its logical nobody would accept such a treaty. Even if Boris Johnson did not visit the terms and conditions were way too deluded for Ukraine to accept because its even much worse than 2014 and 2015.

Russia's peace treaties have always been capitulation or complete surrender. Its logical for Ukraine to reject it even if it comes at a high cost with the war constantly stalemating.

Even if Russia is gaining ground. Russia has not been getting rapid gains but small gains with enormous costs.

This war is all about who is going to break first then quit.

 

[contricusc]

Why would they 'give up on Ukraine'? They consider it theirs, or at least in their zone of interest politically, geographically, culturally, historically, strategically.

They would give up on Ukraine if the alternative would be the disintegration of Russia and complete collapse of the regime.

If the West applied economic sanctions in a meaningful way, coupled with more help for Ukraine including capabilities to strike deep inside Russia (Especially against economic targets), and also arm some rebelions in Russian republics with large demographic minorities like Dagestan or Ingushetia, the Russian regime would be unable to sustain the war on multiple fronts while having a collapsing economy.

Some retarded politicians in the West would say this is a dangerous scenario because Russia would go nuclear, so they try to avoid it, while the reality is that this is an ideal scenario where the Russian regime would come to the negotiating table and withdraw from Ukraine in order to avoid its collapse.

Unfortunately the West is run by politicians even more cowardly than Putin, which is something really shameful.

Even a conventional hot war with Russia is something Putin & Co are well aware the west wants no part of (even though, yes, the west would win that showdown, duh). They're not going to 'give up on' Ukraine for the simple reason that they've called our bluff, they know we don't have the stomach or will for a fight like that anymore.

It is all about the incompetence and cowardly nature of Western leaders, it has nothing to do with having or not having the will to fight. Russia could have easily been defeated even without NATO engaging them directly, simply by applying real economic pressure, giving more lethal help to Ukraine and funding rebellions inside Russia.

Ukrainians and Russian minorities who hate the regime would have done the fighting for the West if given enough support. And the Russian economy would have collapsed if it were put under real sanctions, not the jokes currently imposed on them.

Certainly not over a little place like Ukraine that, let's be honest, about 3 years ago Average Joe/Jane American or Brit or whatever basically just thought of as "Russia-lite" anyway. All of those former-Soviet states blend together for the normies, and every western leader's damn well cognisant of the fact their population has no appetite whatsoever for sending their sons over there to teach Big Meanie Russia a lesson on good international etiquette. Or be responsible with providing stuff to rain hellfire down on Russian cities with.

This is because Western leaders are no better than the regular normies who can’t point their own country on a map. They are unable to form a coherent strategy to defeat Russia, not because they lack the means, but because they lack the will and the intellect.

It's about all you can do, and it's obviously not going to be enough. Sucks, but better than the alternative, that's the western calculation. "If Putin's dumb enough to go into Poland then obviously it's fucking on, but Ukraine's a pretty unique situation not rising to that bar. Best of luck, homies, here's some boom-booms we can spare, just don't do anything stupid with them."

No, it is not “about all you can do”. It is what the treacherous Western leaders are willing to do for a country they encouraged to decouple from Russia and take the risks associated with that.

The insanity is so high that they care more about energy prices than they do about a war in the heart of Europe. They even continue to talk about nonsensical issues like climate change when there is a big hot war in the middle of Europe… How much more delusional these people can be?