Live Conflict Ukraine-Russia War

[Relic]

Some updates on aid that Western countries have commited to deliver to Ukraine in 2025. This list is not entirely comprehensive or exhaustive, but it gives an initial indication of support levels that have been made public thus far.

The G7 will provide Ukraine with a $50 Billion usd loan in 2025. The money will be delivered in increments throughout the year and is largely earmarked to pay the personnel costs (salaries, recruitment, training, medical expenses, etc) of the Ukrainian military.

German military aid to Ukraine in 2025 will amount to $4.12 Billion usd. Germany, thus far, has announced that they will deliver the following during 2025:

- 2 Patriot Air Defense Launchers
- 6 IRIS-T SLM Air Defense Systems
- 7 IRIS-T SLS Air Defense Systems
- 13 Gepard Air Defense Systems
- 2 Skynex Air Defense Systems
- 4 Diehl Kenetic Air Defense Systems
- IRIS-T SLM / SLS Missiles
- Skynex Ammunition
- Diehl Kenetic Ammunition
- Gepard Air Defense Systems
- 25 Marder IFVs + ammo
- 9 Boxer IFVs
- 277 FFG MRAPs
- 22 Leopard 1A5 MBTs + ammo
- 54 RCH-155 Howitzers
- 19 Panzerhaubitze 2000 Howitzers
14- Zuzana 2 Howitzers
- 200,000 155mm Artillery Shells
- 120,00 122mm Artillery Shells
- 3,400 HF-1 Strike Drones
- 122 VECTOR Recon Drones
- 361 SONGBIRD Recon Drones
- 200 RQ-35 Heidrun Recon Drones
- 108,000 40mm rounds of Ammo
- 995 MK 556 Assault Rifles
- 189 CR 308 Rifles
- 80 HLR 338 Sniper Rifles
- 1.2 Million Rounds of Ammo
- 3420 PARM Anti-Tank Mines
- 11,000 Anti-Tank Weapons
- 40 Drone Detection Systems
- 11 Anti-drone Jammers and Sensors
- 6 Sea King Multitole Helicopters
- 9 Bergepanzer 2 Recovery Vehicles
- 2 Alhmann Mine Clearing Vehicles
- Explosive Ordinance Clearing Material
- 223 Border Protection Vehicles
- 1660 Combat Helmets
- 668 Lazer Range Finders
- 4 AMPS Helicopter Protection Systems
- 11 Communications Jammers
- 10 SurveilSPIRE Recon Systems
- 10,000 Safety Glasses
- 30 Gereon RCS Remote Vehicles
- 20 ZETROs Refrigerator Trucks
- 1 8x6 Truck with 7 Roll Off Containers
- 2 Tractors and 4 Trailers
- Winter Clothing
- Medical Equipment
- Dental Equipment

British military aid to Ukraine in 2025 will amount to $3.7 Billion usd. Britain has, thus far, announced that they will deliver the following in 2025:

- 15 Gravehawk Air Defense Systems
- Air Defense RADARS
- Stormshadow Cruise Missiles
- ASRAAM Air Defense Missiles
- 550 Martlet Air Defense Missiles
- Kamikaze Drones
- Recon Drones
- Sea Drones
- 155mm Artillery Rounds
- 150 155mm Artillery Barrels
- 153 Small Boats
- 1000 Drone Countermeasure Systems
- Small Arms Ammunition
- Air Defense Decoys
- Training Through Operation Interflex
- Pilot Training (BAE HAWK)

French military aid for Ukraine in 2025 will again be an undisclosed figure but is rumored to be approximately $3 Billion usd. France, thus far, has announced that they will deliver the following in 2025:

- 6-12 Mirage 2000-5 Fighter Jets
- Mistral Air Defense Systems
- Aster 15 Missiles (SAMP/T)
- Aster 30 Missiles (SAMP/T)
- SCALP Cruise Missiles
- AASM Air Guided Munitions
- Matra Magic 2 Air-to-Air Missiles
- MICA Air-to-Air Missiles
- 18 CAESAR Howitzers
- 18 AMX10-RC Light Tanks
- 128 VAB APCs
- 155mm Artillery Shells
- Pilot Training (Mirage 2000-5)

Norwegian military aid for Ukraine in 2025 will be $2 Billion usd. Norway, thus far, has announced that they will deliver the following in 2025:

- NASAMS Air Defense Systems Upgrades
3 ARTHUR Counter-Battery RADARS
- Naval Mine Detection / Clearing Equipment
- Cash For Czech Led Artillery Shell Purchases
- $45 Million usd For Danish Led Ukrainian Domestic Arms Purchases
- Cash For Romania To Help Pay For The Patriot Air Defense System They Transferred To Ukraine

Danish military aid for Ukraine in 2025 has not yet been announced in dollar value, however, thus far they have announced that they will deliver the following in 2025:

- 40 CV9035 MKIIIC (funded jointly with Sweden)
- 80 BMP-2 IFVs (Purchased from Czechia)
- Funding for the maintenance of Ukrainian F-16s
- $183 million usd to purchase undisclosed weapons from the Ukrainian defense industry

Canadian military aid for Ukraine in 2025 will be at least $640 million usd. Canada, thus far, has announced that they will deliver the following in 2025:

- Roshel Senator APCs
- 60 LAV 2.0 APCs
- 64 LAV-2 Coyote Recon Vehicles
- CRV7 Rockets and Rocket Motors
- 240 Skyranger Multi-use Drones
- 155mm Artillery Shells
- Small Arms
- Small Ammo
- Winter Equipment
- F-16 Pilot Training in Montreal
- $200 Million usd Cash For The Czech Artillery Shell Purchases
- $100 Miillion Cash For Danish Led Ukrainian Domestic Arms Purchases
- Training of Ukrainian Soldiers as Part of Operation UNIFIER

Italian military aid for Ukraine in 2025 will be $2-$3 Billion usd. Italy has, thus far, not announced what they will deliver to Ukraine in 2025 outside of the following:

Australian military aid for Ukraine in 2025 has not yet been disclosed. Australia, thus far, has announced that they will deliver the following in 2025:

- 49 M1A1 Abrams MBTs

Dutch military aid for Ukraine in 2025 will be $3.75 Billion usd. The Netherlands has, thus far, announced that they will deliver the following 2025:

- Leopard 1A5 MBTs (funded jointly with Germany and Denmark )
- 14 Leopard A4 MBTs (funded jointly with Germany and Denmark )
- 35 CV9035NL IFVs (funded jointly with Sweden and Denmark )

Swedish military aid for Ukraine in 2025 will be $2.3 Billion usd. Sweden has, thus far, not announced what they will deliver to Ukraine in 2025 outside of the following:

- 35 CV90NL (funded jointly with Denmark and The Netherlands )
- 40 CV90 MKIIIC (funded jointly with Denmark)
- Cash For The Czech Artillery Shell Purchases
- Cash For Danish Led Ukrainian Domestic Arms Purchases

Additional other countries continue to be heavily in supplying military aid to Ukraine, however, most keep their donations private. Poland , Bulgaria , Latvia , Estonia , Lithuania , Romania , Portugal , Greece , Belgium , Croatia , Cyprus , Iceland , Finland , Czechia , Ireland , Japan , Luxembourg , Montenegro , New Zealand , North Macedonia , Pakistan , Slovenia , Spain and Turkey are among the countries that will send military aid to Ukraine either directly or indirectly.

Then there becomes the great mystery that is the USA under the Trump Presidency. As it stands, Trump still has $3.8 Billion usd of Presidential Drawdown Authority funding left. His administration can choose to give Ukraine those supplies, or withhold them. It seems at this point like they may be willing to continue to support Ukraine, but with additional demands from the Ukrainians in return for the aid. We'll know a lot more over the coming 3-4 months.

 

[Spitfire9]

Footage of a Ukrainian T-64 tank being pursued by Russian FPV drones has been published. The video was filmed in the Donbass near the settlement of Velyka Novosilka. The tank is equipped with a Ukrainian version of drone protection, in the form of a "barbecue" made of mesh. The Ukrainian tank was attacked by two Russian drones. The first drone struck the tank's turret, but the tank continued moving. The second drone struck the engine and transmission part of the tank, after which the tank lost its speed and a fire started inside.

I do not question that Russia is gaining ground in Ukraine. Same for destroying Ukrainian armour, artillery, rocket launchers, missile launchers, fighter aircraft etc

What would stop that? The only way I see of stopping Russia attacking Ukraine is through a breakdown of Russia's financial system and economy. I don't see Putin stopping hammering away at Ukraine until the Russian government runs out of funds or credit with which to prosecute the war. I see him wrecking the banks with forced future bad loans to companies making arms, using citizens' bank savings eg turning them into enforced war bonds, stopping payments to government suppliers, precipitating the bankruptcy of many, stopping payments to government employees etc. I think that he will ruin the country's finances and industry and citizens before he gives up.

An insight into what has really been going on during the war...

Moscow has been stealthily pursuing a dual-track strategy to fund its mounting war costs. One track consists of the highly scrutinized defense budget, which analysts have routinely deemed “surprisingly resilient.” The second track—largely overlooked until now—consists of a low-profile, off-budget financing scheme that appears equal in size to the defense budget. Under legislation enacted on the second day of the full-scale invasion, the Kremlin has been compelling Russian banks to extend preferential loans to war-related businesses on terms set by the state. Since mid-2022, this off-budget financing scheme has helped drive an unprecedented $415 billion surge in overall corporate borrowing. This report estimates that $210 to $250 billion of this surge consists of compulsory, preferential bank loans extended to defense contractors—many with poor credit—to help pay for war-related goods and services.

Moscow now faces a dilemma: the longer it puts off a ceasefire, the greater the risk that credit events—such as corporate and bank bailouts—uncontrollably arise and weaken Moscow’s negotiating leverage.

https://navigatingrussia.substack.com/p ... n-war-debt

If true, this revelation is extremely bad news as far as Russia is concerned. It reveals that Russia cannot afford to fight this war as it has done. It has led its economy and financial system towards collapse (and is still doing so). For that reason I would hope that Ukraine will not accept a ceasefire but grit its teeth and keep up the fight until Russia unravels and is forced to give up the fight.

 

[Relic]

A new air defense commitment for Ukraine has been announced by Britain and has been co-developed by Denmark .

In 2025 Britain will deliver 15 "Gravehawk" SHORAD Air defense systems to Ukraine. Ukraine quietly tested the first two systems in September, successfully intercepting Russian cruise missiles and drones. The exact timeline for the delivery of all 15 systems has not been given, however, Keir Starmer confirmed that they will arrive throughout 2025.

The Gravehawk uses the same SupaCat chassis that Britain previously used to create several ad hoc Air defense systems for Ukraine. It will be paired with reconfigured Brimstone missile launchers and can be configured to fire both the British made AIM-132 ASRAAM air-to-air missile and the Soviet made Wympel R-73 air-to-air missile that Ukraine, Poland, Czech Republic and others have stockpiles of. The R-73 is the primary missile used for Ukraine's remaining fleet of 9K33 OSA SAM Systems. The dual firing configuration of the Gravehawk will allow Ukraine maximum flexibility in missile usage and it can be reconfigured in the field. The system will have an effective range of 10-15 kms and again, is capable of intercepting both Russian cruise missiles and drones. This system is not designed to intercept ballistic missiles or hypersonic missiles. That remains the job of Ukraine's Patriot and SAMP/T systems.

Ukraine's air defense will continue to tighten in 2025. The following air defense systems and missiles / rockets will arrive in Ukraine throughout 2025:

- 15 Gravehawk AD Systems
- 6 IRIS-T SLM AD Systems
- 7 IRIS-T SLS AD Systems
- 2 Patriot AD Launchers
- 13 Gepard AD Systems
- 4 Diehl AD Systems
- 2 Skynex AD Systems
- Mistral AD Systems
- RBS 70NG AD Systems
- RBS 70NG AD Systems
- Patriot PAC 2/3 AD Missiles
- Aster 15 /30 AD Missiles
- 650 Martlet AD Rockets
- IRIS-T SLM / SLS Missiles
- AIM-132 ASRAAM AD Missiles
- AIM-9M/L AD Missiles
- AIM-9X AD Missiles
- AIM-120 AMRAAM AD Missiles
- R-73 AD Missiles
- Stinger AD Missiles

Ukraine war briefing: Gravehawk revealed as new air defence system pledged by Starmer

British-Danish platform uses air-to-air missiles, but fired from the ground; another Russian fuel depot burns. What we know on day 1,059

www.theguardian.com

United Kingdom and Denmark Deliver 15 Gravehawk Air Defense Systems to Ukraine for 2025

United Kingdom and Denmark Deliver 15 Gravehawk Air Defense Systems to Ukraine for 2025

armyrecognition.com

 

[Huelague]

Some updates on aid that Western countries have commited to deliver to Ukraine in 2025. This list is not entirely comprehensive or exhaustive, but it gives an initial indication of support levels that have been made public thus far.

The G7 will provide Ukraine with a $50 Billion usd loan in 2025. The money will be delivered in increments throughout the year and is largely earmarked to pay the personnel costs (salaries, recruitment, training, medical expenses, etc) of the Ukrainian military.

German military aid to Ukraine in 2025 will amount to $4.12 Billion usd. Germany, thus far, has announced that they will deliver the following during 2025:

- 2 Patriot Air Defense Launchers
- 6 IRIS-T SLM Air Defense Systems
- 7 IRIS-T SLS Air Defense Systems
- 13 Gepard Air Defense Systems
- 2 Skynex Air Defense Systems
- 4 Diehl Kenetic Air Defense Systems
- IRIS-T SLM / SLS Missiles
- Skynex Ammunition
- Diehl Kenetic Ammunition
- Gepard Air Defense Systems
- 25 Marder IFVs + ammo
- 9 Boxer IFVs
- 277 FFG MRAPs
- 22 Leopard 1A5 MBTs + ammo
- 54 RCH-155 Howitzers
- 19 Panzerhaubitze 2000 Howitzers
14- Zuzana 2 Howitzers
- 200,000 155mm Artillery Shells
- 120,00 122mm Artillery Shells
- 3,400 HF-1 Strike Drones
- 122 VECTOR Recon Drones
- 361 SONGBIRD Recon Drones
- 200 RQ-35 Heidrun Recon Drones
- 108,000 40mm rounds of Ammo
- 995 MK 556 Assault Rifles
- 189 CR 308 Rifles
- 80 HLR 338 Sniper Rifles
- 1.2 Million Rounds of Ammo
- 3420 PARM Anti-Tank Mines
- 11,000 Anti-Tank Weapons
- 40 Drone Detection Systems
- 11 Anti-drone Jammers and Sensors
- 6 Sea King Multitole Helicopters
- 9 Bergepanzer 2 Recovery Vehicles
- 2 Alhmann Mine Clearing Vehicles
- Explosive Ordinance Clearing Material
- 223 Border Protection Vehicles
- 1660 Combat Helmets
- 668 Lazer Range Finders
- 4 AMPS Helicopter Protection Systems
- 11 Communications Jammers
- 10 SurveilSPIRE Recon Systems
- 10,000 Safety Glasses
- 30 Gereon RCS Remote Vehicles
- 20 ZETROs Refrigerator Trucks
- 1 8x6 Truck with 7 Roll Off Containers
- 2 Tractors and 4 Trailers
- Winter Clothing
- Medical Equipment
- Dental Equipment

British military aid to Ukraine in 2025 will amount to $3.7 Billion usd. Britain has, thus far, announced that they will deliver the following in 2025:

- 15 Gravehawk Air Defense Systems
- Air Defense RADARS
- Stormshadow Cruise Missiles
- ASRAAM Air Defense Missiles
- 550 Martlet Air Defense Missiles
- Kamikaze Drones
- Recon Drones
- Sea Drones
- 155mm Artillery Rounds
- 150 155mm Artillery Barrels
- 153 Small Boats
- 1000 Drone Countermeasure Systems
- Small Arms Ammunition
- Air Defense Decoys
- Training Through Operation Interflex
- Pilot Training (BAE HAWK)

French military aid for Ukraine in 2025 will again be an undisclosed figure but is rumored to be approximately $3 Billion usd. France, thus far, has announced that they will deliver the following in 2025:

- 6-12 Mirage 2000-5 Fighter Jets
- Mistral Air Defense Systems
- Aster 15 Missiles (SAMP/T)
- Aster 30 Missiles (SAMP/T)
- SCALP Cruise Missiles
- AASM Air Guided Munitions
- Matra Magic 2 Air-to-Air Missiles
- MICA Air-to-Air Missiles
- 18 CAESAR Howitzers
- 18 AMX10-RC Light Tanks
- 128 VAB APCs
- 155mm Artillery Shells
- Pilot Training (Mirage 2000-5)

Norwegian military aid for Ukraine in 2025 will be $2 Billion usd. Norway, thus far, has announced that they will deliver the following in 2025:

- NASAMS Air Defense Systems Upgrades
3 ARTHUR Counter-Battery RADARS
- Naval Mine Detection / Clearing Equipment
- Cash For Czech Led Artillery Shell Purchases
- $45 Million usd For Danish Led Ukrainian Domestic Arms Purchases
- Cash For Romania To Help Pay For The Patriot Air Defense System They Transferred To Ukraine

Danish military aid for Ukraine in 2025 has not yet been announced in dollar value, however, thus far they have announced that they will deliver the following in 2025:

- 40 CV9035 MKIIIC (funded jointly with Sweden)
- 80 BMP-2 IFVs (Purchased from Czechia)
- Funding for the maintenance of Ukrainian F-16s
- $183 million usd to purchase undisclosed weapons from the Ukrainian defense industry

Canadian military aid for Ukraine in 2025 will be at least $640 million usd. Canada, thus far, has announced that they will deliver the following in 2025:

- Roshel Senator APCs
- 60 LAV 2.0 APCs
- 64 LAV-2 Coyote Recon Vehicles
- CRV7 Rockets and Rocket Motors
- 240 Skyranger Multi-use Drones
- 155mm Artillery Shells
- Small Arms
- Small Ammo
- Winter Equipment
- F-16 Pilot Training in Montreal
- $200 Million usd Cash For The Czech Artillery Shell Purchases
- $100 Miillion Cash For Danish Led Ukrainian Domestic Arms Purchases
- Training of Ukrainian Soldiers as Part of Operation UNIFIER

Italian military aid for Ukraine in 2025 will be $2-$3 Billion usd. Italy has, thus far, not announced what they will deliver to Ukraine in 2025 outside of the following:

Australian military aid for Ukraine in 2025 has not yet been disclosed. Australia, thus far, has announced that they will deliver the following in 2025:

- 49 M1A1 Abrams MBTs

Dutch military aid for Ukraine in 2025 will be $3.75 Billion usd. The Netherlands has, thus far, announced that they will deliver the following 2025:

- Leopard 1A5 MBTs (funded jointly with Germany and Denmark )
- 14 Leopard A4 MBTs (funded jointly with Germany and Denmark )
- 35 CV9035NL IFVs (funded jointly with Sweden and Denmark )

Swedish military aid for Ukraine in 2025 will be $2.3 Billion usd. Sweden has, thus far, not announced what they will deliver to Ukraine in 2025 outside of the following:

- 35 CV90NL (funded jointly with Denmark and The Netherlands )
- 40 CV90 MKIIIC (funded jointly with Denmark)
- Cash For The Czech Artillery Shell Purchases
- Cash For Danish Led Ukrainian Domestic Arms Purchases

Additional other countries continue to be heavily in supplying military aid to Ukraine, however, most keep their donations private. Poland , Bulgaria , Latvia , Estonia , Lithuania , Romania , Portugal , Greece , Belgium , Croatia , Cyprus , Iceland , Finland , Czechia , Ireland , Japan , Luxembourg , Montenegro , New Zealand , North Macedonia , Pakistan , Slovenia , Spain and Turkey are among the countries that will send military aid to Ukraine either directly or indirectly.

Then there becomes the great mystery that is the USA under the Trump Presidency. As it stands, Trump still has $3.8 Billion usd of Presidential Drawdown Authority funding left. His administration can choose to give Ukraine those supplies, or withhold them. It seems at this point like they may be willing to continue to support Ukraine, but with additional demands from the Ukrainians in return for the aid. We'll know a lot more over the coming 3-4 months.

Germany (chancellor Scholz), has no indent to aid Ukraine!

 

[Huelague]

After all of our tax money will be vanished, Blackrock will make the real deals.

 

[Relic]

Germany (chancellor Scholz), has no indent to aid Ukraine!

The aid will be sent. $4 Billion worth of military aid Germany intends to send in 2025 has already been contracted, ordered and much of it is already in production. After February the politics will settle down and they will carry on with deliveries.

In an absolute worst case scenario, Ukraine could use $4 Billion usd from the $50 Billion usd loan they're receiving in 2025 and they could reimburse Germany for all the equipment that has been contracted, which would essentially serve as the equivalent of Ukraine purchasing the equipment on their own.

Regardless, I don't think it comes to that. The provisional budget that was approved will go on to contain the mulitary aid money earmarked for Ukraine. Like all other Western governements, the arms industry lobbies and incentivizes the German Government HARD. There is no way that companies such as Rheinmetall and FFG are not going to get their money.