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Live Conflict Ukraine-Russia War
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Gary
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Here Are The Options For The EU's Initiative To Restock Ukraine With Fighter Jets (Updated)
A few EU countries still have jets similar to ones that Ukraine flies, which would allow them to be rushed into combat.
BY JOSEPH TREVITHICK FEBRUARY 27, 2022JOSEPH TREVITHICK View Joseph Trevithick's Articles
@FranticGoat
In a major development with regards to the conflict in Ukraine, a top European Union official says that the bloc is now working to facilitate the delivery of fighter jets to the country as it continues to resist a full-on Russian invasion. Additional combat aircraft could be especially valuable for the Ukrainians, who have been able to prevent Russian from gaining air superiority, so far, but have suffered losses over the course of the fighting. You can get fully up to speed on the latest news on the conflict in our most recent rolling coverage here.
Josep Borrell, a Spanish politician currently serving as the High Representative of the European Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy and as Vice-President of the European Commission, announced earlier today that the bloc would provide funding for Ukraine to purchase fighter jets from unspecified member states. While he did not identify what types of aircraft might be headed to Ukraine in the near future, he did indicate that they would be ones that the Ukrainian Air Force already operates, which would help get them into combat faster. This is just one part of a larger military assistance package valued at 450 million Euros, or just over $501 million at the rate of conversion at the time of writing.
The Ukrainian Air Force's fighter fleets consist of a mixture of Soviet-designed MiG-29 Fulcrums and Su-27 Flankers, as you can read more about here. No country within the European Union operates Su-27s.
This would suggest that the transfer of MiG-29s has been a central topic of discussion. Poland, Slovakia, and Bulgaria all still fly Fulcrum variants, which could be transferred and put into service very quickly. While the Bulgarian jets have seen some modest improvements since the fall of the Soviet Union, the Polish and Slovakian jets have been significantly upgraded.
Other EU member states previously flew MiG-29s and may still have some in storage, but how long it might take to get them operational again would likely make them less attractive options. Still, they could possibly serve as spares resources, especially seeing that a number of Ukrainian MiG-29s which may have been unflyable, got destroyed in a Russian strike.
Poland, Slovakia, and Bulgaria have the additional benefit of being NATO members who are in the process of replacing their MiG-29 fleets. However, Poland is due to get the first of its new F-35A Joint Strike Fighters until 2024, while Slovakia and Bulgaria are set to begin receiving their new F-16C/Ds in 2023 and 2025, respectively.
At the same time, those countries could mitigate any national security risks from losing the air defense capabilities offered by these jets by asking other NATO members to help guard their airspace in the interim. Countries from the alliance already provide this added defensive capacity to the Baltic States of Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania, which do not have any combat jets of their own, as well as in the Black Sea region. Beyond that, American fighters, as well as those from other NATO nations, are already flying enhanced patrols along the alliance's eastern flank as a part of buildup in response to the conflict in Ukraine. At the same time, this might also mean there will be a need to remove certain sensitive NATO-standard gear from these jets before they could be turned over to Ukraine.
Romania and Croatia, which are also NATO members, fly older, deeply upgraded MiG-21 variants that might be on the table, which could still be formidable adversaries in aerial combat. Ukraine does not currently fly the MiG-21 operationally, but companies in the country perform depot maintenance on them for other countries. This would still seem less likely than the transfer of MiG-29s. The same goes for Poland's aging fleet of Su-22 swing-wing combat jets, though these types might become more attractive if the conflict grinds on.
USAF
A Romanian MiG-21 Lancer.
GOJANOVIC123456789/WIKIMEDIA COMMONS
A Croatian MiG-21.
Borrell may have been using a more generic form of the term "fighter jets" and the European Union could be looking to supply Ukraine with other combat jets, as well. Bulgaria still flies Su-25 Frogfoot ground attack aircraft, another type that is also currently in Ukrainian service and is relevant to the conflict.
VIA BULGARIAN AIR FORCE
A Bulgarian Su-25 Frogfoot.
This is all in addition to a growing array of weapons and other military aid that various European countries, as well as the United States, have delivered or are planning to in the future. This has included a shipment of air-to-air missiles for Ukraine's existing fighter jets, according to the country's armed forces.
Regardless of what specific types of aircraft the European Union is looking at transferring now, any additional and relatively modern combat jets are likely to be welcome additions to the Ukrainian Air Force's fleets, which have suffered significant losses already in the past four days. This includes some Ukrainian aircraft that have been destroyed in missile strikes on various bases.
I spotted what I’m pretty sure are two Ukrainian fighter jets heading northeast toward Kyiv and then back in the southwesterly direction from which they came. This was one of them. (Could this be the ghost? Does the ghost exist?) Everyone wants to know). pic.twitter.com/zU4IN4QDzx
— Christopher Miller (@ChristopherJM) February 25, 2022
Ukrainian fighters, as well as ground-based air defenses, have shot down a number of Russian aircraft, too. This is what gave birth to the urban legend about a Ukrainian super ace, dubbed the Ghost of Kyiv, that you can read more about here.
Ukrainian fighters, together with other elements of the country's air force, such as Turkish-made TB2 armed drones, and air defenders on the ground, have been critical for preventing Russian forces from achieving air superiority. This is a remarkable feat. As an example of these efforts, earlier today, a video emerged that reported shows a TB2 destroyed Russian Buk-series mobile surface-to-air missile systems.RussianSU-25 in the area of Kherson taking a direct hit by the missile of a Ukrainian MANPADS (Man-portable air-defense system).
via WarLeaks @jpg2t785 #Ukraine pic.twitter.com/02IzvOrswi
— Felix Woessner (@FeWoessner) February 26, 2022
Байрактари в роботі. Наші оператори ювелірно криють колони ворожих військ. Знищено російський БУК в районі Малина Житомирської області.
Бійтеся, вороги! Не буде вам спокою на нашій землі!https://t.co/P5fCPeWTB8 pic.twitter.com/dH2UEUbKST
— ВОЇНИ УКРАЇНИ(@ArmedForcesUkr) February 27, 2022
Preventing Russian forces from gaining control of the skies also gives Ukrainian aircraft, including the TB2s, the opportunity to try to destroy convoys carrying badly needed supplies to units in the field and provide close air support, as well as engage other kinds of ground targets. All of this, together, can only help hamper the Russian military's ability to provide air support to friendly forces, move with greater freedom on the ground inside Ukraine, and otherwise operate effectively.
All told, the Ukrainian Air Force has a need for more combat jets now. That demand will only grow as Russian forces continue to push along multiple axes in northern, eastern, and southern Ukraine, including around the capital Kyiv.- Ukrainian army: tuk-tuk.
- Russian army: who's here?
- Ukrainian army: your ticket to home#StopRussianAggression #Ukraine #Bayraktar pic.twitter.com/FNSZs0gyrn
— ANTONOV Company
If these additional European jets are to have an impact on the conflict, Ukraine needs them as soon as possible.
UPDATED: 7:05 PM EST —
Alexandre Krauss, a policy advisor to members of Renew Europe, a "pro-European political group in the European Parliament," has written on Twitter these jets, whatever they might be, will be "flying in Ukraine [sic] skies within the hour." He did not elaborate further on what type of jets would be included in the Europe Union's military air package or who would be flying them in Ukrainian skies shortly.
Separately, The Washington Post's Michael Birnbaum says that a European diplomat told him that Ukraine was set to receive Russian-made jets from Bulgaria, Slovakia, and Poland. This further points to the impending delivery of MiG-29s, as well as possibly Su-25s, just as The War Zone had laid out.
It's not clear how much training Ukrainian pilots might need to fly any of these aircraft. Polish and Slovakian pilots reportedly needed significant additional instruction to learn how to operate their upgraded MiG-29s. At the same time, much of that could cover more advanced systems that Ukraine's aviators won't necessarily need to know in order to get the aircraft into the fight, if they haven't been removed prior to delivery in the first place.
We will update this story as more information becomes available.
Here Are The Options For The EU's Initiative To Restock Ukraine With Fighter Jets (Updated)
A few EU countries still have jets similar to ones that Ukraine flies, which would allow them to be rushed into combat.
www.thedrive.com
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Can anyone explain the long and short term consequences of this
And also
And also
Khan Kubrat
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There is a big danger for Western nations to ban countries from SWIFT. Setting bad precedent and terrible for credibility.
If they ban Russia today, imagine who they can ban tomorrow. If they don't agree with India's decisions for example, they can ban Indian banks. This is going to provide alot of ammunition for nations to diversify away from SWIFT and develeop own systems. China already has an alternative, I bet it is about to get a huge boost. Believe me, many emerging nations are looking at these developments at alarm. The West just wants to bully everyone, but it will haunt them
If they ban Russia today, imagine who they can ban tomorrow. If they don't agree with India's decisions for example, they can ban Indian banks. This is going to provide alot of ammunition for nations to diversify away from SWIFT and develeop own systems. China already has an alternative, I bet it is about to get a huge boost. Believe me, many emerging nations are looking at these developments at alarm. The West just wants to bully everyone, but it will haunt them
Gary
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Ukraine (and the world) has 3 months advanced warning on the impending Russian invasion and the Ukrainian general staff would have known that the Russians are after the TB-2s and would already planned for the survival of those assets..
Me personally sees nothing to be surprised here
Me personally sees nothing to be surprised here
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The bottom line is russian military is acting like a third world army because russia is a corrupt third world country.very interesting and long read again, most informative i have read in a long time.
Why Russia will lose this war?
Much of the "realist" discourse is about accepting Putin's victory, cuz it's *guaranteed*. But how do we know it is?
I'll argue that analysts 1) overrate Russian army 2) underrate Ukrainian one 3) misunderstand Russian strategy & political goals
Consider a timely paper on Russian army by Bismarck Analysis. It's good & informative. It's correct on its land-based and artillery-centric character. It's also correct that Minister of Defence Serdyukov greatly increased army's efficiency in 2007-2012. But it's still misleading
Yes, Minister Serdyukov indeed reformed the army. He increased its efficiency, fought with corrupt and crony armament producers improving the army supplies. As a result he became extremely unpopular, made tons of powerful enemies and was ousted in 2012 losing his power and status
His successor Shoygu knew better than that. Now who's Shoygu? Shoygu is the *only* single Russian minister who uninterruptedly worked in government since 1991, since the very beginning of Russian Federation. He worked for all presidents, all prime ministers avoided all purges
What does it mean? It means he's a cunning political entrepreneur, great in court politics, publicity, image. You survive every single administration by maxing your political survival. And to max it you need to minimise animosity. So you never object to powerful interest groups
Serdyukov fought with interest groups and was destroyed. Shoygu was smarter than that. He launched a PR campaign presenting himself as the "saviour" from the Serdyukov's legacy. Whatever his predecessor did, was dismantled. Media cheered, people cheered, interest groups cheered
That's a very, very typical problem. Efficiency-maxing requires ruthlessness in dealing with established elites and interest groups. Meanwhile court-politics-maxing requires pondering to them and not making enemies. Serdyukov was maxing efficiency, Shoygu - court politics
There was another issue. Shoygu is ethnic Tuvan. In such a country as Russia minority member can hardly become the supreme leader. People don't perceive him as ethnic Russian (see his palace) which means he's not dangerous for the leader and you can safely delegate him the army
Shoygy not only purged Serdyukov's appointees, pondered to old military establishment, stopped arguing with army suppliers about the equipment cost and quality. He also pondered to numerous feel-good-lies regarding the Russian big strategy. Let's consider the army vs navy problem
Army vs navy had been a traditional dilemma of European powers for centuries. As a rule, you couldn't support both first class army and first class navy, you had to choose. Some powers ignored this to their demise - like 17-18th cc France. Others were more rational, like Prussia
We kinda forgot it but in the 17th c principality of Brandenburg centered in Berlin tried to play into a "global maritime power". They built a navy, established colonies in Caribbean and Africa (red). Super costly, super hubris, super stupid. Consumed tons of resources in vain
In 18th c. they reconsidered. They sold their colonies, dismantled the navy and started land-maxing. They correctly realised that if they suppress their hubris and minimise the navy (to zero), they can land-max and build the first class army. Which would then unify Germany
So. Land-maxing requires minimising the naval ambition. Does Russia minimise its naval ambition? No. It feels obliged to maintain as much Soviet naval legacy as possible. Keep old ships afloat, build new ones, maintain and expand infrastructure for the ocean navy
Here is another dilemma. Regional fleets can be effectively used in land wars. For example, Russia declared "navy manoeuvres" and then attacked Ukraine from the sea. That's cheap and effective. But keeping a regional fleet doesn't sound sexy. It's efficiency-maxing, not PR-maxing
And Russia is PR-maxing. Putin declared that the share of new ships should reach 70% by 2027. Old Soviet ships are becoming obsolete, Russia's building new ones. BUT. Major Soviet shipyards are located in Ukraine. So now Russia expands shipyard infrastructure to reach this goal
Soviet naval legacy is a curse of Russian military. USSR could afford ocean fleets with carrier strike group. Russia can't. But abandoning Soviet ambitions would require suppressing their own hubris (impossible). So they strive to maintain it. Ergo: they can't and won't land-max
How does it reflect on this war? First, Russian invading force is small. It has LOTS of artillery ofc. But it's not numerous enough to win. Pro-Russian analysts compare their advance with Barbarossa. But unlike Wehrmacht in 1941 Russian invaders have only *ONE ECHELON OF TROUPS*
How is a Blitzkrieg organised? By echelons. First echelon is moving forward as fast as they can. Ofc this means that lots of defenders will be left in their rear. But then the second echelon comes, then third, etc. They finish defenders, occupy territory, control the supply lines
If Russia launched a proper Barbarossa-style Blitzkrieg that would happen now - first, second, third echelons. But the second echelon didn't come. It never existed. Why? First, Russia's *not* landmaxing and thus doesn't have so much resources and infrastructure for the land war
Secondly, launching several echelons would require long arduous preparation. You need to mobilise them, move to the borders, quarter, maintain and supply. It's not that easy. It's a hard job that should have been done well in advance to wage a Blitzkrieg. And it hadn't been done
Why Russia didn't prepare a proper Blitzkrieg? And now we come for the third and main reason. Blitzkrieg is a war strategy. Blitzkrieg is how you break & suppress the enemy who's actually fighting. Russia didn't plan it because it didn't plan a war. It planned a Special Operation
Ofc partially that's just modern discourse. After WWII traditional understanding of sovereignty as of legal right of sovereign rulers to wage offensive war died. As a result modern states never admit they're waging wars. They're waging "pacifications", "counterterrorism", etc
Consider how all the War Departments and Ministries over the world were renamed into "Defence" in late 1940s. Everyone's defending, nobody's attacking. Why does the fighting happen then? Well, because of criminals - "bandits", "terrorists", "jihadees" or as now in Ukraine "Nazis"
Modern world abolished the distinction between the enemy and the criminal, a key idea of the Roman Law. Powers do wage wars, but to do so they need to criminalise and dehumanise their enemies. Hence, all the "terrorist" discourse. In a sense Putin is going with the flow
But on a deeper level Putin is absolutely correct. His declaration of "special operation" in Ukraine is sincere, because he didn't expect the war. He doesn't know how to do wars. For all of his life he's been organising and launching the special operations
First, as a KGB officer. Then, as St Petersburg city councillor for foreign affairs (= illegally selling Soviet warehouse stuff to the West). In 1990s he closely worked with the criminal world and he did it successfully. Here you see him with a thief-in-law, Grandpa Hassan
Btw that's how Putin's pal Grandpa Hassan is celebrating with his close circle. It gives some idea of Putin's business partners and associates
Putin worked with violent entrepreneurs used to killing. But. He had always had the upper hand. Federal and regional governments were very much stronger than these criminal bosses who were very much replaceable. Everyone of them had dozens of henchmen who wanted to take his place
Putin waged special operations when he had much stronger position than these criminals. And he got used to that. Later Yeltsin chose him as a successor and in this capacity Putin launched a bunch of special operations to consolidate power. Again with full support of higher ups
Yeah, Putin played badass even before becoming a President. But it was easy to play a badass when he was backed up by then President and the entire apparatus of
Kremlin. Huge power, no risk, no accountability
Later he initiated conflicts each time his had to boost his popularity and tough image. Chechnya, Georgia, Syria. But neither of this was a war. Every conflict was a Special operation waged:
1) for political goals
2) against small force which had no chance to win against Russia
Putin fought only with small countries. Chechnya - 1 million people, Georgia - 4. Syria had more, but he fought with rebels, with no proper training or armaments. Also "counterterrorist" discourse allowed Russians to simply level entire cities to the ground with no consequences
Every time Putin needed to confirm his alpha status he would devastate some little country with a Special Operation. They didn't require proper preparation because they bore no existential risk to Russia or to him. Like, the fuck they're gonna do? No risk = no need to bother
Putin decided to repeat this little trick again. Hence, not that numerous army of invasion, only one echelon of advance, etc. But Ukraine is much bigger - it has 44 million people. What was Putin thinking? Apparently he was expecting zero resistance from the Ukrainian army
Putin had a good reason to believe so. Indeed, in 2014 Russian regulars ("ихтамнеты" = "there aren't any of them there") easily destroyed Ukrainian forces in Debaltsevo and Ilovaysk. He saw that Ukrainian army is weak and he can easily route them simply sending Russian regulars
Strategically speaking Putin fucked up. He defeated Ukraine, inflicted pain and humiliation. Anyone with an IQ above the room temperature knew the war is not over and Russians would strike again. But - Putin didn't finish Ukraine back then. He thought he'd always have a chance
What happened next was quite predictable. Inflicting a painful but not critical defeat on your enemy is risky. Yeah, they kinda became weaker. But the balance of power within them changed. Court politics maxing interest groups lost and efficiency maxing upstarts get a chance
Formula of institutional evolution = scare + don't finish them. Napoleon smashed Prussians at Jena-Auerstedt, didn't finish them. Prussia evolved. Commodore Perry scared Japanese in 1853, but the US spiralled into Civil War and left them alone. Japan evolved
Nothing motivates as hard as an existential threat. First, Ukrainians admitted the truth:
«I'll be frank. Today we have no army. Now we can assemble a group of 5 thousand capable soldiers max [out of 125 on paper]"
- reported minister of defence in 2014
I'll make a pause, gonna resume in an hour or so. To be continued soon
In 2014 Ukrainian equipment was awful. Almost 100% vehicle and ammunition were 25+ year old Soviet stocks. Moreover, most of it just expired. Like vehicles existed on paper but were never checked or used since 1991. Their radiators, accumulators all rotten and unrepairable
FSB colonel who led pro-Russian insurgency in 2014 admitted it created problem for him, too. He wanted to restock from the Ukrainian military warehouses, but that stuff just didn't work. Like they took 28 anti-tank missiles and fired them all during Nikolaevka battle. None worked
Judging by the interviews with insurgents who were disappointed to find that rockets, shells, grenades taken from Ukrainian warehouses were 99% dysfunctional (ofc, they were 25+ years old) it's not surprising Ukraine lost to Russia in 2014. It's surprising they could fight at all
Even the ancient soviet radio machines didn't work. Ukrainian soldiers had to communicate with SMS and since network was often awful they had to throw their mobile phones up in air in a hope may be it will catch radio signal few meters over the ground
That's how Ukrainian army looked back then. No wonder it was immediately crushed by Russian regulars in Debaltsevo and Ilovaysk and Putin had every reason to believe that resistance will be broken the moment he launches his regular army en masse
A lot has changed. First, Ukraine has had six drafts. Men were drafted and sent to Donbass. Then most demobilised and returned to civilian life. This Donbass contingent was around 60 thousand soldiers and constantly rotated. So now Ukraine has 400 000+ veterans of Donbass war
Many of them were in combat. Thus Ukraine has huge number of veterans with combat experience. Probably more than Russia. Yes, Russia has been fighting in Syria. It never published the size of its force but it's estimated to be 2-3 thousand. Most Russian soldiers have not seen war
Furthermore, combat they've seen is different. Russian soldiers are used to fighting only when they total superiority. In Syria they would just level cities to the ground with bombers. Meanwhile, Ukrainian soldiers have fought only against far stronger and better equipped enemy
Equipment-wise this war took Ukrainian army half-resupplied. It developed many innovative weaponry of its own, but almost none of it was produced on large scale. In most cases soldiers have only few prototypes of new, Ukrainian-produced weaponry
Ukraine ordered 48 Turkish Bayraktars TB2 drones. That's not bad - more than twice what Azerbaijan had in Karabakh. But only 12 of them got to the troops by now. Ukraine is also developing new, stronger drone Bayraktar Akinci together with Turks, but it's too late for this war
However, Ukrainians got a number (unpublished) of American-produced Javelins and M141 Bunker Defeat Munition, & British-Swedish produced MBT LAWs. Together with Ukrainian produced anti-tank weaponry such as «Stugna-P», RK-3 "Corsar" and «Barrier» it helps to fight Russian tanks
Ukrainian troops hadn't received many new tanks by the time Putin attacked. But they got new armoured vehicles, such as domestic-produced Cossack-2 with Turkish produced Aselsan fighting modules and a number of American armoured vehicles, humvees, etc
Finally, Ukraine created a new type of troops - the troops of territorial defence, whose number is estimated in 60 000. It's a copy of the Polish troop type. These are civilians who get military training and can be mobilised in a day to fight only in their own town and region
Why? Well, that's pretty obvious. If Russia made a proper Blitzkrieg with several echelons of attack, Ukraine would lose anyway. But Russia didn't. And Ukrainians bet that they wouldn't. First - it's costly and difficult for a state security regime which isn't landmaxing
Second, Putin expected Ukrainian army to run away or surrender in the first day. Like most of foreign observers expected. Now they're of course changing the narrative, but if you look at their posts few days ago they didn't believe that Ukrainians would make any real resistance
So Putin attacked with only one echelon. Troops pushed forward leaving many non-destroyed Ukrainian regulars and levy behind. In a proper Blitzkrieg a second and third echelon would have come to finish Ukrainian defenders. But they didn't. These additional echelons didn't exist
Which immediately created the supply and replenishment problem. The first echelon pushed forward. It needs a supply in ammo, in fuel and well, in people. But these supply convoys are being attacked by the regulars and territorial defence troops left behind
By those few Bayraktars Ukraine got
And reportedly by the levy whom the government just distributed guns. These people would be unable to stand against the Russian columns but they can attack convoys. Consider that Ukraine has many veterans with combat experience among civilians
Strelkov, who led pro-Russian insurgency in 2014 confirms this version in his telegram. Supply columns are being destroyed because there's no second echelon
Putin is apparently concerned. In the video of 25 Feb he called for Ukrainian military to do a coup d'erat. He wouldn't need it if his plan worked in the first place
What does it mean? Putin's plan didn't work. Cuz he didn't plan for war. He never fought a war and has no idea how to fight them. He has been always doing Special Operations and this is a Special Operation, too. They should have just run away or surrender, but they keep fighting
The defeat in this operation will inflict enormous consequences for Putin and his regime. They are unlikely to survive this defeat. Meanwhile, it's unlikely that Putin wins by the same methods
It's not that Russian morale is low, it's rather that it depends on how hard the war is.Most Russian troops would be enthusiastic or wouldn't mind against a small foreign vacation with fun and adventures. Fighting a hard long war with real possibility of death is another matter
Now my laptop died and wouldn't turn on again, so typing from phone
Morale of Russian troops is widely overestimated. According to sociological studies the main motivation to enlist is usually to get an apartment. They are usually young men from underprivileged background with no real prospects in life. That's a chance to get a housing from state
Now if you are dead, you can't get a housing. Perhaps those already in Ukraine have little choice but the very fact that resistance continues, war is bloody and casualties are real would hugely demotivate those back at home. Expect no enthusiasm to go there on Russian side
What Putin can do?
1. Start destroying infrastructure (done)
2. Blockade cities (done)
3. Simply level cities with bombers and artillery like in Chechnya or Syria (may be)
The first two would inflict humanitarian catastrophe and as he hopes break the will
Third one is more problematic. Unlike Chechnya or Syria where you could easily justify the open genocide with "fighting jihadees" which is a fair play in the "war on terror", here it would be more difficult and actually might draw the NATO response. Still, I can't exclude this
So my prognosis is: if the fight continues and victory is not achieved Russian ability and willingness to fight will be disappearing quickly. Putin doesn't have a choice but many of his subordinates do
Even in case when Russia doesn't technically lose and some source of armistice/agreement is achieved, Ukraine already won. Why? Many describe this conflict as kinetic. Bullshit. Human conflicts or interactions are not kinetic. They are mythological and run by myths
Money is a myth. It exists only because we believe so. Power is a myth. Nation is a myth. Institutions are purely mythological. Consider the story of the burning of Moscow in 1572. Ivan the Terrible divided his country to Zemschina (land) and Oprichnina (taken apart)
Oprichnina was under his personal rule. Oprichniks - his forces - launched terror campaign against Zemschina. They slaughtered entire noble houses, massacred cities, killed enormous number of commoners facing no resistance. Why? Were they strong and brave? No. Because if the myth
Russian people existed within a myth of Orthodox monarchy. Ofc there would be individuals who would go against the Orthodox Tsar. But it was impossible to organise a resistance against him. Thus resistance would be individuals and easily crushed by organised Oprichnik forces
Oprichniks became very brave and badass. Because mythology of the Russian people prohibited 99% of them to resist these security forces. So with the time they decided they are really cool.
In 1572 when Crimean Khan attacked Moscow Oprichnik forces went to face him
Kinetically speaking they had overwhelming superiority. Guns, cannons, much heavier armor or weaponry. Their defense and firepower was very much stronger. But they were routed in one day simply by arrows. Because they were used to fight people whose myth prohibited to resist them
Within the Muscovite mythology Oprichniks were invincible untouchable demigods, as hands of Orthodox Tsar, who's kinda living God. But when facing foreign enemy they left this mythological space. And entered a new space where they are just people and can get arrow in the face
They were not used to getting arrows in the face. The very realisation they are not demigods but mortals shocked them. They ran away dropping their armor, guns and cannons. Moscow was burnt to the ground despite having total "kinetic" and technological superiority
So. Power is mythological. Russian state security are gods within their own mythological space where they represent the god like state. But what they found that Ukrainians left this mythological space. Thus Russian state security has no power there.
They are just mortals
And finally. The very fact of resistance against so much superior enemy very much empowers the Ukrainian mythology. It's enormous mythos building we are witnessing. The very phenomenon of war is inconceivable without taking into account mythological dimension
Consider Venice. When Napoleon came they surrendered without a shot. Very smart, saved lives, saved the city. It's just killed the mythos of Venice. People lived but the Republic died. It was never restored and is unlikely to be restored again
Theorists of war of the bygone age understood it. Clausewitz pointed out that it's important not only if you lost independence but *how* you lost it. If you submitted without a fight, you saved lives. But you killed your mythos. You'll be digested by the conqueror
But if you lost after the brutal and bloody fight your mythos is alive. The memory of the last battle will live through the ages. It will shape the mythological space your descendants live in and they'll attempt to restore independence at the first opportunity. End of thread
We have similar problems in Turkey where capable generals were sacked because they lacked loyalty to certain politicians, we should take this as an important lesson!
M
Ukrainian soldier with Turkish made enchanced helmet
Gary
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Assalamu'alaikum warahmatullahi wabarakatuh to Muslim.
Good day to Others.
Respect to Ukrainian.
Good day to Others.
Respect to Ukrainian.
E
Their survival isn't the only thing. Even though it had years to do it, Russia still hasn't developed the ability to counter them.
Glass🚬
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forced bool lel
www.reuters.com
Russian c.bank orders block on foreign clients' bids to sell Russian securities - document
Russia's central bank has ordered professional stock market participants to suspend the execution of all orders by foreign legal entities and individuals to sell Russian securities from Monday morning, an internal document showed.
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Russian central bank hikes rate to 20% in emergency move, tells firms to sell FX
The Russian central bank raised its key interest rate to 20% from 9.5% on Monday in an emergency move, and authorities told export-focused companies to sell foreign currency as the rouble tumbled to record lows.
Hexciter
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The Russia-Ukraine War: Latest News
Full coverage of Russia's invasion of Ukraine, from The Wall Street Journal
Feb 27, 2022 at 11:43 pm ETUkraine Says It Used Turkish-Made Drones to Hit Russian Targets
By Brett Forrest and Jared Malsin
A Bayraktar TB2 drone in Mykolaiv, southern Ukraine, in June 2021.NINA LIASHONOKUKRINFORM/ZUMA PRESS
Ukraine’s air force confirmed two strikes on Russian targets by Turkish-made drones, evidence that Kyiv is using the drones effectively against Moscow’s invading forces.
The chief of Ukraine’s air force, Lt. Gen. Mykola Oleshchuk, called the Bayraktar TB2 drones “life-giving” in a Facebook post.
A video posted on Twitter by the Ukrainian Embassy in Ankara showed a convoy of more than a dozen vehicles consumed by a fireball and a plume of smoke. The embassy tweeted two more videos taken out the window of a moving vehicle showing the charred wreckage of military vehicles.
The Ukrainian air force confirmed that one of these videos depicted the result of a TB2 strike in the town of Chornobaivka, in southern Ukraine, an area that has experienced serious fighting over the past couple of days.
“Never a rose without a thorn,” the embassy wrote in one of the tweets. “Russian invaders have to put up with Bayraktar TB2s.”
The embassy called the strike “divine justice” for a Russian airstrike that killed 34 Turkish soldiers in Syria on this date two years ago.
Ukraine began receiving shipments of the Turkish-made drones in 2019 and has been using their high-powered cameras to view the battlefield and laser-correct artillery strikes. The TB2 can stay aloft for 24 hours, with an altitude ceiling of roughly 25,000 feet. A remote pilot can fly the drone from as far away as 185 miles, weather permitting.
Ukraine Says It Used Turkish-Made Drones to Hit Russian Targets
Ukraine’s air force confirmed two strikes on Russian targets by Turkish-made drones, evidence that Kyiv is using the drones effectively against Moscow’s invading forces. The chief of Ukraine’s air force, Lt. Gen. Mykola Oleshchuk, called the Bayraktar TB2 drones “life-giving” in a Facebook post. A
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Ukrainian civilians are now stealing Russian equipments left behind 
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Glass🚬
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ye they stagnated,
this will also have again consequences for their defense industry btw
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There are many young and Ukranian in Denmark who chooses to go back and fight.
mulj
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Small break while this fake negotations are on, so l want to say regardless of war outcome Turkiye should preserve bussiness relations with russia and try to avoid being any spearhead of NATO diplomatic and economic hostilities towards them. Or put the price tag for that which will meet your national interests before any significant and meaningful hostile move.
Gary
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