Live Conflict Ukraine-Russia War

[Saithan]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1499253736958574593

Irpin a Ghost town

 

[TheInsider]

What do people think about the Russians moving to the next phase of their operation?

I would say the first strategic phase has been 80% successful. Some losses in Kiev and Kharkov, which they need to learn from. Heavy fighting in the Donbass, but they are breaking through now. And are closing the encirclement around the Ukrainian forces in the east. They have surrounded Kiev and Kharkov and the coast city beginning with M. Which they are assault soon. The next strategic phase will be completing the encirclement in the weak and destroying those Ukrainian forces, they linking up with Kiev and Kherson forces to create two lines east and west of the big river. The 3rd phase will be taking Odessa and linking up with the Russian bit in Moldova.

I have some question, why aren't the Ukrainians moving their special force and mountain troops from the west, why are they just chilling where they are? Are they protecting something?

This is a wrong take on. Russians aren't breaking through because this is not a war you can win by big breakthroughs. There are no contact lines, no battle lines etc. Ukrainians are fighting a hybrid guerilla and conventional war. There are no Ukrainian lines to decimate or breakthrough simple as that. Ukrainians are using cities as fortresses and small ambush units on the open fields. Those ambushes are meant to delay the invasion and cripple the logistics. This war is designed to bleed Russia. Visually proven Russian vehicle losses now stand over 500.

 

[Saithan]

What do people think about the Russians moving to the next phase of their operation?

I would say the first strategic phase has been 80% successful. Some losses in Kiev and Kharkov, which they need to learn from. Heavy fighting in the Donbass, but they are breaking through now. And are closing the encirclement around the Ukrainian forces in the east. They have surrounded Kiev and Kharkov and the coast city beginning with M. Which they are assault soon. The next strategic phase will be completing the encirclement in the weak and destroying those Ukrainian forces, they linking up with Kiev and Kherson forces to create two lines east and west of the big river. The 3rd phase will be taking Odessa and linking up with the Russian bit in Moldova.

I have some question, why aren't the Ukrainians moving their special force and mountain troops from the west, why are they just chilling where they are? Are they protecting something?

I guess there are too many Russian units all over the place and moving wastwards like doesn’t seem realistic as you’ll have enemies behind your lines that can do damage.

if Ukraine has regional defence force I hope they’re able to replenish and resupply and continue fighting, but I too think Ukraine needs to somehow rout the Russians, which seems to attack all over the place to cause disruption in any real attempt to rout, while the sheer numbers ensures some kind og advancement

 

[Saithan]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1499088162865524737

 

[SaR]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1499216990942158853

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1499185800172474371

 

[Anastasius]

This is a wrong take on. Russians aren't breaking through because this is not a war you can win by big breakthroughs. There are no contact lines, no battle lines etc. Ukrainians are fighting a hybrid guerilla and conventional war. There are no Ukrainian lines to decimate or breakthrough simple as that. Ukrainians are using cities as fortresses and small ambush units on the open fields. Those ambushes are meant to delay the invasion and cripple the logistics. This war is designed to bleed Russia. Visually proven Russian vehicle losses now stand over 500.

What he said. Russian supply lines are completely fucked. I'm still certain they can brute force this but they are paying a much higher price for it than they wanted to.

Right now Russia's strategy is to take the big cities and then use them as staging points. The problem is that they don't appear to control much of the territory between those cities, even having switched to a semi-Chechnya strategy. They'll probably go full Chechnya by the end.

Ironically enough the most effective forces on the Russian side thus far have been the separatist proxies, which I find hilarious. It'd be like the FSA in Syria outperforming the actual Turkish army.

 

[Lool]

What he said. Russian supply lines are completely fucked. I'm still certain they can brute force this but they are paying a much higher price for it than they wanted to.

Right now Russia's strategy is to take the big cities and then use them as staging points. The problem is that they don't appear to control much of the territory between those cities, even having switched to a semi-Chechnya strategy. They'll probably go full Chechnya by the end.

Ironically enough the most effective forces on the Russian side thus far have been the separatist proxies, which I find hilarious. It'd be like the FSA in Syria outperforming the actual Turkish army.

I agree
What you should also notice is that most of the Russian forcces in Ukraine are reservists; thus, the true actual, well-trained, force of Putin's army is still in Russia. It seems that Putin dont wanna lose the actual decent soldiers he has and instead is throwing out reservists, belarusian, and Chechen soldiers to go there and die


Putin will eventually win the Eastern side of Ukraine but it will be really EXPENSIVE

 

[McCool]

Russia does throw its elite and regular army into Ukraine and got decimated instead. We've seen 1st class weaponry issued to top of the line Russian unit like T-80BVM, T-90, Kamaz Typhoon, Tigr M with Arbalet RCW getting blown out all over Ukraine. Sometimes ago the Ukrainian's in Kharkiv even manages to seize AK-12 usually operated by Russian SOF. Whichh means this whole excuse that Russia is deliberately sending its conscripts instead of regular soldiers false.

This is the Russian army performing very badly in front of the world to see, that's it !!!!

 

[guest_07]

Assalamu'alaikum warahmatullahi wabarakatuh to Muslim.
Good day to Others.

I still remember how this tweeter
warned every civilian Kyiv
or anyone related
a day or a bit more,
before the invasion begun.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1495762382773420032

 

[tracer]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1499216990942158853

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1499185800172474371

What he said. Russian supply lines are completely fucked. I'm still certain they can brute force this but they are paying a much higher price for it than they wanted to.

Right now Russia's strategy is to take the big cities and then use them as staging points. The problem is that they don't appear to control much of the territory between those cities, even having switched to a semi-Chechnya strategy. They'll probably go full Chechnya by the end.

Ironically enough the most effective forces on the Russian side thus far have been the separatist proxies, which I find hilarious. It'd be like the FSA in Syria outperforming the actual Turkish army.

I agree
What you should also notice is that most of the Russian forcces in Ukraine are reservists; thus, the true actual, well-trained, force of Putin's army is still in Russia. It seems that Putin dont wanna lose the actual decent soldiers he has and instead is throwing out reservists, belarusian, and Chechen soldiers to go there and die


Putin will eventually win the Eastern side of Ukraine but it will be really EXPENSIVE

Russia does throw its elite and regular army into Ukraine and got decimated instead. We've seen 1st class weaponry issued to top of the line Russian unit like T-80BVM, T-90, Kamaz Typhoon, Tigr M with Arbalet RCW getting blown out all over Ukraine. Sometimes ago the Ukrainian's in Kharkiv even manages to seize AK-12 usually operated by Russian SOF. Whichh means this whole excuse that Russia is deliberately sending its conscripts instead of regular soldiers false.

This is the Russian army performing very badly in front of the world to see, that's it !!!!

This kind of all makes sense if strung together.

-Russia had an almost bay-of-pigs-esque intelligence fuckup where at least the higher echelons came to believe that all ukrainians would rise as one man and overthrow their government as soon as they show up.

-Russia does have "elite" units, and they are committed, but their numbers are relatively small. It's possible that they can't maintain a sizeable elite force and its equipment and they committed as much as they dared. Maybe as a "tip of the spear".

-The bulk of the forces (and especially logistics) are made up of reservist units with equipment that isn't well maintained (hence the tires) and with low morale. They are limited to road travel and they can't keep up with the other units.

-Communication between different arms of the russian forces is severely limited and they resort to using non-encrypted radio transmissions. So the ones making decisions are NCO's and low level officers close to the front lines, without operational awareness and coordination.

This feels just feels like an immense cockup that started long before the first unit crossed the border.

 

[Saithan]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1499281305019764741

Russian amph. Units waiting to launch attack.

Ukraine not having capability to hit these at sea is quite a problem.

 

[SaR]

This kind of all makes sense if strung together.

-Russia had an almost bay-of-pigs-esque intelligence fuckup where at least the higher echelons came to believe that all ukrainians would rise as one man and overthrow their government as soon as they show up.

-Russia does have "elite" units, and they are committed, but their numbers are relatively small. It's possible that they can't maintain a sizeable elite force and its equipment and they committed as much as they dared. Maybe as a "tip of the spear".

-The bulk of the forces (and especially logistics) are made up of reservist units with equipment that isn't well maintained (hence the tires) and with low morale. They are limited to road travel and they can't keep up with the other units.

-Communication between different arms of the russian forces is severely limited and they resort to using non-encrypted radio transmissions. So the ones making decisions are NCO's and low level officers close to the front lines, without operational awareness and coordination.

This feels just feels like an immense cockup that started long before the first unit crossed the border.

It is not to be me to analyze, there is a lot of great articles on this. I am write quick out of order comment.

Many issues were already showing from the previous regional conflicts but when actively followed news and looked from an technical aspect.

For example, Russian precision guided munitions (PGM) use in Syria, was limited because not just because of cost and but also technical limitations. There is sensor etc. limitations because Russian electronics industry stalled for various reasons, but main reasons being economic collapse, corruption and Russia have limited sources to find foreign alternatives, likely only source being China.

Russia previously sourced optics from France including according to news, including tech transfer. Before-Crimea Invasion.
Russia sought technical assistance for gimbal EO/IIR design from Hensoldt South Africa. Having issues with developing them.

Russia did use Orlan with joint operations along with artillery. Trainings in Russia also actively showed Orlans. Now why we are (not) seeing these UAVs in the current conflict. Possible explanations, as stated above sensor limitations. Using Orlan in high intensity conflict is not same as Syria or training.

UAV like Orlan is small that it cannot be seen by eye after certain distance. This could be an issue given. Lack of situational awareness. Such as Orlan not having ground tracking radar and fancy software interface.

These things may not get attention openly but tells a lot. Could be used to iterate other weaknesses. This is few examples. Pantsir performance in Libya was excused for not having network capabilities. Currently conflict debunked that. Not just network but system itself is bad.

Russia delivered Belurasian Mig29s to Libya. To deter TB2s. People would laugh at you for saying this before. Old Mig29s are not even ideal for ground attack roles. It would have to expose itself by flying low altitude. Kind of whats happening now.

 

[tomthebotfly]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1499281305019764741

Russian amph. Units waiting to launch attack.

Ukraine not having capability to hit these at sea is quite a problem.

They did have some anti ship missile land based systems, the Neptune I think was their name, however their small numbers might be the issue.

 

[Al Dakhil]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1499280330439725059

 

[SaR]

‘Game-changing’ drones helping Ukraine in battle for the skies

The Ukrainian military has been using “Punisher” drones that can target fuel storage, ammunition supplies and electronic warfare stations up to 30 miles behind

www.thetimes.co.uk

Could be first news on use of Ukrainian made drones

 

[SaR]

 

[SaR]

View attachment 40462

ATGM distance. God I wish

 

[Bogeyman]

Assalamu'alaikum warahmatullahi wabarakatuh to Muslim.
Good day to Others.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1499257376087674880

Foreign Minister Mevlüt Çavuşoğlu announced that Turkey had prevented 3 Russian warships from exiting the Black Sea.

Dışişleri Bakanı Çavuşoğlu: Yaptırımlara katılma eğilimimiz yok

Dışişleri Bakanı Mevlüt Çavuşoğlu, Türkiye'nin, Rusya'ya yönelik yaptırım kararlarını tek tek incelediğini belirterek, "Biz genel anlamda bu tür yaptırımlara ilkesel olarak katılmadık. Bu yaptırımlara da katılma eğilimimiz yok." dedi. - Anadolu Ajansı

www.aa.com.tr

 

[Isa Khan]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1499296094265696256

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1499303918907576321

 

[Al Dakhil]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1499302456492232704