Exercises or war? Allied resolve of Belarus and the Russian Federation
Russian service DW, January 19, 2022, 10:58
Belarus and Russia are preparing new exercises Allied resolve
In February, exercises of the armed forces of the Republic of Belarus and Russia will be held on Belarusian territory. What are countries preparing for?
In the Mozyr district of the Gomel region, local residents noticed the Russian military on the morning of January 18, the forest roads were blocked by barriers, and entry to them is possible with passes. Previously, military equipment on railway platforms was seen near Minsk, in Slutsk and Gomel.
Thus began preparations for the joint military exercises of Belarus and Russia called Allied Resolve. The ruler of Belarus Alexander Lukashenko on Monday heard a report on the concept of the exercises of the armed forces and announced that they would be held in February on the southern and western borders of the country.
Russian troops in Belarus
Alexander Lukashenko spoke about the planned joint exercises on December 29 last year at a meeting with Vladimir Putin. By this time, Russia had already deployed about 100,000 troops to the border with Ukraine.
Official Kiev and Western leaders fear that Moscow is preparing for a new invasion of Ukraine. Russia denies such intentions, demanding "security guarantees", including refusal to admit Ukraine to NATO.
Against this background, Alexander Lukashenko, discussing the plan for future exercises, said that the military contingent of Ukraine is allegedly building up near the borders of Belarus and the concentration of "national guard units of radical nationalists, which is even worse than NATO servicemen."
The Security Service of Ukraine immediately reacted to this statement, calling it "manipulative and provocative."
The exercises will be held from February 10 to 20, their purpose is to work out the tasks of suppressing and repelling external aggression, as well as countering terrorism. Until this date, a sudden check of combat readiness will be carried out - that is, the redeployment and creation of groupings of troops. Five training grounds and four military airfields will be used on the territory of Belarus.
The first echelon with vehicles and heavy equipment, according to the press service of the Ministry of Defense of Belarus, has already arrived in the country, and in the near future the Russian military will go to the area where the tasks will be carried out.
In turn, Russian Deputy Defense Minister Alexander Fomin, at a briefing for foreign military attaches on January 18, said that two divisions of S-400 air defense systems, one division of Pantsir-S systems and twelve Su-35 aircraft would be transferred from Russia to Belarus for exercises.
Exercises or war?
To a direct question whether there will be a war, Belarusian military analyst Yegor Lebedok replied that the forces assembled on Belarusian territory are not enough to start it, but they are enough, if we take the entire grouping of Russian troops around Ukraine.
Therefore, in his opinion, there will most likely be some kind of armed conflict, but it is not clear when. "Everyone asks questions about the war, but the problem must be taken more broadly," Lebedok notes.
Russia, he says, feels that it is strategically lagging behind the West. Over the past seven years, it has become clear that it was not possible to disorganize NATO, and now this military bloc has rejected Putin's demand to return to the configuration of 1997, which preceded the expansion of the alliance's borders at the expense of the countries of the former socialist camp. That is why, according to the analyst, "the logical thought arose, whether to attack while you are still strong."
And in Belarus, the conflict is escalating and the population is preparing for it. On Monday, Deputy Chief of the General Staff of Belarus, Chief of the Main Operations Directorate Pavel Muraveiko said that the Polish military is performing provocative tasks on the western border - "Wishing to demonstrate its need for Europe, Poland is moving as many military personnel as possible there."
Such rhetoric, Lebedok continues, only increases the atmosphere of anxiety, but in reality Belarus does not exist as a military-political factor - Russia is working out its plans here, using the operational space.
The Belarusian state does not need this, but Alexander Lukashenko can ultimately count on reducing pressure from Russia - this is how he will pay off Vladimir Putin for support.
There are no forces for war, there is a hybrid conflict
Belarusian military observer Alexander Alesin, in turn, notes that according to the canons of military art, the advantage of the attacker should be in the proportion of 3:1 or 4:1. And if 120,000 military personnel are concentrated near the borders on the Ukrainian side, then Russia needs 500,000 soldiers, and this is more than the Russian land army.
The nature of the equipment that arrived in Belarus, such as the S-400 systems or the Pantsir-S systems, nevertheless indicates the development of defensive battles.
Russia, according to the expert, understands the West's reaction to its actions, so its task is to wear down its opponents on purpose. If there is a blow, it will be of a hybrid nature - and not at all where the Russian army shows military activity.
A war is unlikely, Alesin believes, but there will be some kind of conflict in order to continue to exhaust Ukraine economically with the presence of troops until a split in the elites occurs within it - and judging by the latest news, confrontation is already underway. Russia's interest is to find forces inside Ukraine that are opposed to the country's entry into NATO.
Oleksiy Garan, professor of political science at the National University "Kyiv-Mohyla Academy", notes that Ukraine is very concerned that Belarus could potentially become a springboard for aggression.
Russian troops are participating in the maneuvers, which means that an attack could follow from the long Belarusian-Ukrainian border. And the army, of course, is preparing for such an option.
There are fears of a full-scale war, continues Garan, because Putin's logic is difficult to understand, but this would not be a rational decision, since everything will result in a serious international crisis.
More likely is a local military operation - for example, Russia could seize a port on the Sea of Azov or the North Crimean Canal. But you need to understand that the Russian army will have losses, Alexey Garan adds: "And we, as democrats, do not want victims and value the lives of soldiers, but the Russian Federation does not."
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