Live Conflict Ukraine-Russia War

[Ecderha]

An Independent Legal Analysis of the Russian Federation's Breaches of the Genocide Convention in Ukraine and the Duty to Prevent - New Lines Institute

This report is the first to address one of the more contentious and consequential questions of Russia's invasion of Ukraine: whether the war is genocidal in character. With fighting still ongoing, modern tools have made it vital that this question be examined and its truth made known.

newlinesinstitute.org

 

[Ecderha]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1530068417432141824

 

[Mehmed Ali]

This article reeks of american moralist preaching. Who's going to be in charge of those decolonized regions then, another Lukashenko, or some warlord or oligarch? Who'll be doing the decolonizing, and what will happen with the thousands of nukes they still have? Whatever nations get born out of this collapse would end up as puppet regimes of the West and China and how exactly do the people in them benefit from that?

Remember the collapse of the Austro-Hungarian Empire. The nations that were born from that ended up being ruled by autocrats, were invaded by the nazis and then had to endure 45 years of communist dictatorship. Now apply this picture to a collapsed Russia and add the potential of nuclear terrorism on top of it all.

They can take a leaf out of your and Hungarian book and become the best buddies with people who destroyed your empire

 

[Fuzuli NL]

I am actually impressed by the survivability of Ka-52. Yes they lost a lot but to be honest helicopters are very easy targets for enemy fire and usually get hit a lot. In Ka52's case we see lots of shot down choopers land mostly intact and crews probably survived the landing. Thats not the case in most helicopter crashes. I think thats because the coaxial rotor design. Since getting hit by the tail(and thats thr standart target area in helicopers) put the chopper in endless spin I guess pilots have been able to land the choppers kinda safely.

Yeah Ka52 probably doesn't have any good sensors and avionics, very poor countermeasure systems, uses civilian electronic panels, it wings seems to be vibrating wildly and it isn't the helicopter that was advertised but i think coaxial rotor design shows it usefullnes in Ka52.

That garbage burns like a plastic bag.

 

[GoatsMilk]

People just missing what is going on with UK................
They are gearing UP FAST

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1530531845468717057

russia’s aggression can NOT be appeased. It must be met with strength.

UK just doing ACTIONS, PROVIDE ........Just you see UK Excellent UK response.

Germany and France just talking.........talking........Lying.......Lying.....Lying.......
ALL EU members SEEING this.........There WILL be consequences for Germany and France.
EU members see that Stronger Germany and France are Chickening and actually helping aggressor russia......

When they sending the British army to confront the Russian army head on?

 

[Van Kravchenko]

When they sending the British army to confront the Russian army head on?

Its just like hammering a small nail with pneumatic hammer.

 

[blackjack]

Action is coming soon.

Серийный выпуск тяжелых ударных дронов "Охотник" начнется в 2023 году

Серийное производство тяжелых ударных беспилотников "Охотник" для Минобороны РФ начнется в 2023 году, сообщил на встрече с президентом РФ Владимиром Путиным... РИА Новости, 18.05.2022

ria.ru

Chemezov: serial production of Okhotnik attack drones for the Defense Ministry will begin in 2023

MOSCOW, May 18-RIA Novosti. Serial production of heavy attack drones "Hunter "for the Russian Defense Ministry will begin in 2023, said at a meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin, General Director of the state Corporation" Rostec " Sergey Chemezov.
"The Hunter drone, its distinctive feature is a flat engine nozzle. A new technical solution has made the aviation complex less visible to radars. In addition, a new ground control center is being created for the drone. In 2021, the first flight model was rolled out, and in 2023 we will start mass production and supply to the Ministry of Defense, " the head of state said.Rostec.
The Okhotnik strike unmanned aerial vehicle was developed at the SukhoiDesign Bureau. Its length is 14 meters, the wingspan is 19 meters, and the take-off weight is more than 20 tons. The drone was made according to the "flying wing" scheme using materials that reduce radar visibility.

РИА «Новости»: дрон «Охотник» применил на испытаниях управляемые ракеты от Су-57 - Газета.Ru | Новости

Российский тяжелый ударный беспилотник С-70Б «Охотник» выполнил в ходе испытаний стрельбу по наземным целям управляемыми ракетами, которые входят в состав вооружения истребителя Су-57. Об этом сообщает РИА «Новости» со ссылкой на информированный источник.

www.gazeta.ru

The Russian heavy attack drone S-70B Okhotnik performed tests firing at ground targets with guided missiles, which are part of the Su-57 fighter's armament. This is reported by RIA Novosti with reference to an informed source.

The interlocutor of the agency stressed that the first experimental model of the device as part of flight tests performed a series of guided missile firing.

"Several types of air-to-surface missiles were used from the armament of the fifth-generation Su-57 fighter with a real defeat of ground targets," the source said.

According to him, testing has shown that the device effectively hits small-sized camouflaged targets with missiles at different times of the day and in all weather conditions.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1530264497721688066

5

5 in service.

Coastal defense system for Tsirkon hypersonic missile in development in Russia — sources

It is presumed to enter service with the Russian Navy by the end of 2022, source close to the Russian defense ministry said

tass.com

MOSCOW, May 27. /TASS/. Russia is developing a new coastal defense system for its advanced Tsirkon hypersonic cruise missile, two sources close to the Russian defense ministry have told TASS.

"NPO Mashinostroyeniya in Reutov [near Moscow] is developing an advanced coastal defense missile system for the Tsirkon hypersonic missile. It is presumed to enter service with the Russian Navy by the end of 2022," one of them said.

The other source said the new system, just like its predecessor Bastion that employs Oniks (export name Yakhont) missiles, will have the capacity to strike both ground-based and sea targets.

NPO Mashinostroyeniya (part of the Tactical Missiles Corporation) refrained from commenting on the information when contacted by TASS.

https://tass.com/defense/1457359

Russian sappers disarm 11,300 explosives in DPR, LPR in past day — Defense Ministry​

According to the chief of Russia’s National Defense Management Center Mikhail Mizintsev, over 2,300 hectares have been inspected, as well as 35 buildings, one bridge and 9.64 kilometers of roads

MOSCOW, May 18. /TASS/. The Russian Armed Forces and Emergencies Ministry continue to clear the Donetsk and Lugansk People’s Republics of explosive devices, Colonel-General Mikhail Mizintsev, the chief of Russia’s National Defense Management Center, said on Saturday.
"The [military] engineering teams of the Russian Armed Forces and the Russian Emergencies Ministry carry out the tasks of clearing the territory of the Donetsk and Lugansk People’s Republics from explosives," said Mizintsev, who heads the Russian Joint Coordination Headquarters for Humanitarian Response in Ukraine.
According to the colonel general, over 2,300 hectares (166.58 hectares in the past day) have been inspected, as well as 35 buildings (including 13 vital facilities), one bridge and 9.64 kilometers of roads.
"A total of 11, 311 explosive devices have been spotted and disarmed, including 352 of them in the past 24 hours," he added.

https://tass.com/defense/1457353

Almost 366 tonnes of aid handed to civilians in DPR, LPR, south Ukraine — Defense Ministry​

On May 28, six humanitarian actions were held in the Donetsk and Lugansk People’s Republics, and in the Kharkov and Kherson Regions

MOSCOW, May 28. /TASS/. Six humanitarian actions were held in southern Ukraine on Saturday to hand 366 tonnes of humanitarian aid to people, Colonel-General Mikhail Mizintsev, chief of Russia’s National Defense Management Center, said.
"On May 28, 2022, six humanitarian actions were held in the Donetsk and Lugansk People’s Republics, and in the Kharkov and Kherson Regions, during which 366 tonnes of daily essentials and foodstuffs were distributed among the population," said Mizintsev, who heads the Russian Joint Coordination Headquarters in Ukraine.
The general added that federal executive bodies along with Russian regions, a wide range of public organizations and patriotic movements continue to collect humanitarian aid, while more than 27,000 tonnes of humanitarian aid have been readied at collection points.
Since March 2, Russia has delivered 23,624.3 tonnes of daily essentials, foodstuffs, medicines and medical products to Ukraine, and 1,067 humanitarian actions have been carried out.

https://tass.com/defense/1457171

Possibility of US’ working on bio weapons in Ukraine noted by SBU in 2017​

Chief of Russia’s radiation, chemical and biological protection force, Igor Kirillov, told the briefing that the SBU also pointed to possible biological threats over the systemic violations and the poor quality of works during the reconstruction of biolaboratories

MOSCOW, May 27. /TASS/. Ukraine’s Security Service (SBU) said back in 2017 that the United States may be using cooperation with Ukrainian biolaboratories to develop biological weapons, the Russian defense ministry said at a briefing on Friday, citing an SBU report found by Russian forces during the special operation in Ukraine.
"The activities of the American side as seen by domestic (Ukrainian - TASS) experts as geared to develop its own database on pathogen strains kept at Ukrainian facilities, <…> to study by US army medics of the efficiency of the use in concrete Ukrainian region of pathogens of extremely dangerous infections to develop or modernize new types of biological weapons of selective action (against a specific race, genotype, territory of birth or sojourn)," says the SBU report on the United States’ military political activities in Ukraine written back in 2017.
Chief of Russia’s radiation, chemical and biological protection force, Igor Kirillov, told the briefing that the SBU also pointed to possible biological threats over the systemic violations and the poor quality of works during the reconstruction of biolaboratories.

 

[blackjack]

 

[Ryder]

Action is coming soon.

Серийный выпуск тяжелых ударных дронов "Охотник" начнется в 2023 году

Серийное производство тяжелых ударных беспилотников "Охотник" для Минобороны РФ начнется в 2023 году, сообщил на встрече с президентом РФ Владимиром Путиным... РИА Новости, 18.05.2022

ria.ru

Chemezov: serial production of Okhotnik attack drones for the Defense Ministry will begin in 2023

MOSCOW, May 18-RIA Novosti. Serial production of heavy attack drones "Hunter "for the Russian Defense Ministry will begin in 2023, said at a meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin, General Director of the state Corporation" Rostec " Sergey Chemezov.
"The Hunter drone, its distinctive feature is a flat engine nozzle. A new technical solution has made the aviation complex less visible to radars. In addition, a new ground control center is being created for the drone. In 2021, the first flight model was rolled out, and in 2023 we will start mass production and supply to the Ministry of Defense, " the head of state said.Rostec.
The Okhotnik strike unmanned aerial vehicle was developed at the SukhoiDesign Bureau. Its length is 14 meters, the wingspan is 19 meters, and the take-off weight is more than 20 tons. The drone was made according to the "flying wing" scheme using materials that reduce radar visibility.

РИА «Новости»: дрон «Охотник» применил на испытаниях управляемые ракеты от Су-57 - Газета.Ru | Новости

Российский тяжелый ударный беспилотник С-70Б «Охотник» выполнил в ходе испытаний стрельбу по наземным целям управляемыми ракетами, которые входят в состав вооружения истребителя Су-57. Об этом сообщает РИА «Новости» со ссылкой на информированный источник.

www.gazeta.ru

The Russian heavy attack drone S-70B Okhotnik performed tests firing at ground targets with guided missiles, which are part of the Su-57 fighter's armament. This is reported by RIA Novosti with reference to an informed source.

The interlocutor of the agency stressed that the first experimental model of the device as part of flight tests performed a series of guided missile firing.

"Several types of air-to-surface missiles were used from the armament of the fifth-generation Su-57 fighter with a real defeat of ground targets," the source said.

According to him, testing has shown that the device effectively hits small-sized camouflaged targets with missiles at different times of the day and in all weather conditions.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1530264497721688066

5

5 in service.

Coastal defense system for Tsirkon hypersonic missile in development in Russia — sources

It is presumed to enter service with the Russian Navy by the end of 2022, source close to the Russian defense ministry said

tass.com

MOSCOW, May 27. /TASS/. Russia is developing a new coastal defense system for its advanced Tsirkon hypersonic cruise missile, two sources close to the Russian defense ministry have told TASS.

"NPO Mashinostroyeniya in Reutov [near Moscow] is developing an advanced coastal defense missile system for the Tsirkon hypersonic missile. It is presumed to enter service with the Russian Navy by the end of 2022," one of them said.

The other source said the new system, just like its predecessor Bastion that employs Oniks (export name Yakhont) missiles, will have the capacity to strike both ground-based and sea targets.

NPO Mashinostroyeniya (part of the Tactical Missiles Corporation) refrained from commenting on the information when contacted by TASS.

https://tass.com/defense/1457359

Russian sappers disarm 11,300 explosives in DPR, LPR in past day — Defense Ministry​

According to the chief of Russia’s National Defense Management Center Mikhail Mizintsev, over 2,300 hectares have been inspected, as well as 35 buildings, one bridge and 9.64 kilometers of roads

MOSCOW, May 18. /TASS/. The Russian Armed Forces and Emergencies Ministry continue to clear the Donetsk and Lugansk People’s Republics of explosive devices, Colonel-General Mikhail Mizintsev, the chief of Russia’s National Defense Management Center, said on Saturday.
"The [military] engineering teams of the Russian Armed Forces and the Russian Emergencies Ministry carry out the tasks of clearing the territory of the Donetsk and Lugansk People’s Republics from explosives," said Mizintsev, who heads the Russian Joint Coordination Headquarters for Humanitarian Response in Ukraine.
According to the colonel general, over 2,300 hectares (166.58 hectares in the past day) have been inspected, as well as 35 buildings (including 13 vital facilities), one bridge and 9.64 kilometers of roads.
"A total of 11, 311 explosive devices have been spotted and disarmed, including 352 of them in the past 24 hours," he added.

https://tass.com/defense/1457353

Almost 366 tonnes of aid handed to civilians in DPR, LPR, south Ukraine — Defense Ministry​

On May 28, six humanitarian actions were held in the Donetsk and Lugansk People’s Republics, and in the Kharkov and Kherson Regions

MOSCOW, May 28. /TASS/. Six humanitarian actions were held in southern Ukraine on Saturday to hand 366 tonnes of humanitarian aid to people, Colonel-General Mikhail Mizintsev, chief of Russia’s National Defense Management Center, said.
"On May 28, 2022, six humanitarian actions were held in the Donetsk and Lugansk People’s Republics, and in the Kharkov and Kherson Regions, during which 366 tonnes of daily essentials and foodstuffs were distributed among the population," said Mizintsev, who heads the Russian Joint Coordination Headquarters in Ukraine.
The general added that federal executive bodies along with Russian regions, a wide range of public organizations and patriotic movements continue to collect humanitarian aid, while more than 27,000 tonnes of humanitarian aid have been readied at collection points.
Since March 2, Russia has delivered 23,624.3 tonnes of daily essentials, foodstuffs, medicines and medical products to Ukraine, and 1,067 humanitarian actions have been carried out.

https://tass.com/defense/1457171

Possibility of US’ working on bio weapons in Ukraine noted by SBU in 2017​

Chief of Russia’s radiation, chemical and biological protection force, Igor Kirillov, told the briefing that the SBU also pointed to possible biological threats over the systemic violations and the poor quality of works during the reconstruction of biolaboratories

MOSCOW, May 27. /TASS/. Ukraine’s Security Service (SBU) said back in 2017 that the United States may be using cooperation with Ukrainian biolaboratories to develop biological weapons, the Russian defense ministry said at a briefing on Friday, citing an SBU report found by Russian forces during the special operation in Ukraine.
"The activities of the American side as seen by domestic (Ukrainian - TASS) experts as geared to develop its own database on pathogen strains kept at Ukrainian facilities, <…> to study by US army medics of the efficiency of the use in concrete Ukrainian region of pathogens of extremely dangerous infections to develop or modernize new types of biological weapons of selective action (against a specific race, genotype, territory of birth or sojourn)," says the SBU report on the United States’ military political activities in Ukraine written back in 2017.
Chief of Russia’s radiation, chemical and biological protection force, Igor Kirillov, told the briefing that the SBU also pointed to possible biological threats over the systemic violations and the poor quality of works during the reconstruction of biolaboratories.

2023 too little too late.

 

[blackjack]

2023 too little too late.

there is no end to this war assuming it would still go on in 2023 to test those toys. there are even aviation versions of Zircon missiles being created.

 

[Gary]

2023 too little too late.

Western sanctions will bite. Many captured Russian equipment has Western components on critical parts, most notably microelectronics. It's going uphill for Russia to replace losses from here, and if this war drags on to 2023 Russia will be a spent force. They lose like 10 tanks per day.

 

[Gary]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1530643921860280325

Yesterday Ukrainian Fulcrums reportedly down a Russia Super Flanker in Kherson

 

[UkroTurk]

The money comes from oil and gas could not survive Russian economy. The money will just go regular expenses of government budget which is 300 billion USD per year.




The war costs Russian Federation's budget additional 750million USD per day.

İn two years Russian National Bank will spend all currency reserves (550billion USD). So next year will be Russian Ruble's year



Notice that this calculation is without effect of economical sanctions.

Also remember RF army has wasted its İnventory so Russian government will have to spent on production of new weapons if they want last the war.

That's why Putin tries to blackmailing with Ukranian grains.
He is ready to open corridor for commercial vessels in the Black Sea if the West lift sanctions.

Neither Ukraine nor West cares about it.

 

[Ryder]

there is no end to this war assuming it would still go on in 2023 to test those toys. there are even aviation versions of Zircon missiles being created.

Thats the problem the more it drags on the worst it gets.

 

[B.t.N]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1530536931670499328

“International relations” and “long term commitment”… The word “Anglo-Saxon” does not seem to fit into any phrase with the previous two, it simply is against the rules of nature! I say the Brits are after a political showdown to pull more into their league

 

[I_Love_F16]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1530612140805132288

Do we know if Baykar provided some TB2’s for free ?

 

[Stepan Bandura]

Woo-hoo!

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1530591451821875201

 

[Glass🚬]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1530917574636085248

 

[blackjack]

Putin, Erdogan set to hold phone talks on May 30, Kremlin confirms

Erdogan announced earlier on Sunday that he intended to hold telephone talks with Putin and also with Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky on May 30

tass.com

Putin, Erdogan set to hold phone talks on May 30, Kremlin confirms​

Erdogan announced earlier on Sunday that he intended to hold telephone talks with Putin and also with Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky on May 30

MOSCOW, May 29. /TASS/. Russian and Turkish Presidents Vladimir Putin and Recep Tayyip Erdogan are planning to hold a phone talk on May 30, Kremlin Spokesman Dmitry Peskov confirmed to TASS on Sunday.
"Yes," the Russian presidential spokesman said, responding to a question about whether such a contact was expected on Monday.
Erdogan announced earlier on Sunday that he intended to hold telephone talks with Putin and also with Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky on May 30.
The latest telephone talks between Putin and Erdogan took place on April 26 and April 28. As the Kremlin’s press office reported, the presidents of both countries discussed, in particular, the Russian side’s efforts to ensure the security of civilians in Ukraine, including the opening of evacuation corridors. Putin also informed his Turkish counterpart of how the Russia-Ukraine talks proceeded.

Inside Joke: Defense Hub is to hold phone talks with Russia Defense Net.

The money comes from oil and gas could not survive Russian economy. The money will just go regular expenses of government budget which is 300 billion USD per year.




The war costs Russian Federation's budget additional 750million USD per day.

İn two years Russian National Bank will spend all currency reserves (550billion USD). So next year will be Russian Ruble's year



Notice that this calculation is without effect of economical sanctions.

Also remember RF army has wasted its İnventory so Russian government will have to spent on production of new weapons if they want last the war.

That's why Putin tries to blackmailing with Ukranian grains.
He is ready to open corridor for commercial vessels in the Black Sea if the West lift sanctions.

Neither Ukraine nor West cares about it.

Yawn.......

The Duran is saying that the Russian reserves stolen by the west are not $300 Billion but closer to $150 Billion.

The Duran says that the Russians let everyone believe that it was $300 Billion in reserves stolen but it was in fact $150 Billion($100 Billion in the US and $30 Billion - $50 Billion in EU.)

If this is true, than Russia outplayed the west here. Apparently Lavrov stated both Saudi Arabia and Argentina want to join BRICS now. It seems that there is momentum in this group.

В правительстве рассказали об уровне инфляции в России

В конце мая в России зафиксировали дефляцию, заявил премьер-министр Михаил Мишустин, выступая перед суперфиналистами конкурса "Лидеры России" в пятницу. РИА Новости, 27.05.2022

ria.ru

MOSCOW, May 27 - RIA Novosti. At the end of May, deflation was recorded in Russia, Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin said, speaking to the superfinalists of the Leaders of Russia competition on Friday.

"According to the latest data, inflation has practically stopped. In the first 20 days of May, it reached its lowest level since 1999, we looked with our analysts. And deflation has already been recorded over the last week," he said.

During his speech, the head of government said that by the beginning of the month, consumption in the country had decreased - turnover through the cash register system decreased by almost ten percent in annual terms, while in the last week of May the decline was reduced to three percent.

"We expect that today the president's initiative to increase the minimum wage, the living wage, social benefits, including the indexation of pensions, will help rectify the situation with consumer demand in the near future, along with the measures that have been taken: lending programs, deferral of insurance premiums," he said. Mishustin.

According to him, this step will make it possible to compensate for the rise in prices and support demand.

Western countries adopted several packages of restrictions against Russia after the start of a special operation to denazify and demilitarize Ukraine . Most of them concerned the banking sector and the supply of high-tech products. In addition, some brands announced the termination of work in Russia.

Moscow called such steps an economic war, noting that it was ready for such a scenario. The Central Bank is taking measures to stabilize the situation on the foreign exchange market, thanks to which the ruble has significantly strengthened against the dollar and the euro, breaking five-year highs. Russia also transferred payments for gas supplies to unfriendly countries into rubles. Another step to combat the impact of Western sanctions was the plan prepared by the government, which includes about a hundred initiatives. The amount of its funding will be about a trillion rubles.

У России появился способ избежать дефолта и без лицензии США

Решение США не продлевать лицензию, разрешавшую обслуживание гособлигаций России в долларах, повысило риск дефолта по этим бумагам. Однако условия выпусков оставляют России шансы избежать такого сценария, выяснил РБК

www.rbc.ru

Russia has a way to avoid default without a US license. The point is in one paragraph of bond documentation.

The US decision not to renew the license, which allowed the servicing of Russian government bonds in dollars, increased the risk of default on these securities. However, the terms of the issues leave Russia a chance to avoid such a scenario, RBC found out.

After this week the US authorities did not renew an expired license that allowed the Russian Ministry of Finance to service dollar obligations to foreign investors, Western market participants began counting down to a potential default of Russia on external public debt. The Russian Ministry of Finance has already announced that it will be forced to fulfill these obligations in rubles. International rating agencies have stated that the redenomination of payments (change of payment currency) will be recognized as a default, unless we are talking about several relatively new issues of Eurobonds of the Ministry of Finance, where the option of paying in rubles is built in in case of an objective impossibility of paying in dollars. Russia has more than $30 billion worth of dollar-denominated sovereign bonds circulating on the market.

However, in the documentation of all Russian issues, the condition "Reimbursement in another currency" (Currency Indemnity) is found, and it theoretically opens a way for payments in rubles without grounds to declare a Russian default. It is independent of the other condition “Payment in alternative currencies” (Alternative Payment Currency), which is contained in securities issued since 2018, and allows legal payments in rubles if, for example, sanctions prevent payment in the original currency.

The Currency Indemnity clause (for example, in this issue of dollar bonds - pdf ) suggests that if Russia pays the holder in a currency other than the dollar (“as a result of a court decision, order of a court of any jurisdiction or any other decision”), then the payment obligation will be considered fulfilled if the investor is able to exchange the received amount of another currency for dollars in the amount due on the next possible day. If during the conversion the amount in dollars is less than due, the Russian Federation is obliged to compensate this shortage to the holder, as well as to compensate him for all transaction costs.

Why Russia might try to use this clause

This provision refers to “judicial” decisions, but in principle it is broad enough for Russia to prove the absence of a default if foreign holders of its securities really can exchange the received rubles for dollars, Maximilian Hess, head of the political risk department of the consulting company Hawthorn Advisors, told RBC. This “tricky” condition does indeed potentially allow Russia to meet its bond obligations even through ruble payments, confirms Mitu Gulati, professor at the University of Virginia School of Law and sovereign debt researcher.

On May 25, the Ministry of Finance of Russia made it clear that ruble payments to non-residents could potentially be converted “into the original currency of the obligation through NBCO JSC National Settlement Depository as a paying agent.” Any non-residents (including from unfriendly jurisdictions) can theoretically obtain permission from a special subcommittee of the Ministry of Finance to convert rubles into dollars, and therefore, to withdraw them abroad, RBC was confirmed in the Ministry of Finance. Russia can still find some "sophisticated" ways to pay through non-sanctioned institutions, Rachel Zimba, founder of the consulting company Ziemba Insights, admits, and NSD is not under US sanctions, and therefore can service dollar transactions.

Without a US license, American investors (who are presumably a minority) are not allowed to conduct transactions with the Russian Ministry of Finance, that is, with the new payment method, they will not be able to do anything with the rubles received. But non-US investors (who are the majority) could in theory receive rubles and exchange them for dollars through NSD, in which case they would have no reason to declare a default.

However, Hess believes that the International Swaps and Derivatives Association (ISDA, regulates payments of financial instruments that insure investors against issuer defaults) or credit rating agencies will still recognize a Russian default if the Ministry of Finance makes payments to non-residents in rubles, because “there are problems with convertibility ruble.

RBC sent a request to the press service of the Ministry of Finance regarding the potential use of the Currency Indemnity clause or alternative ways of fulfilling obligations and received a response: "The Ministry of Finance proceeds from the maximum observance of the rights of investors."

Other options


The next payments on Eurobonds of the Ministry of Finance are scheduled for June 23 (dollar bonds with the option of alternative payment in euros, pounds sterling or Swiss francs) and then on June 24 (dollar bonds without currency alternatives). The first set a grace period during which you can still pay without default - 30 days, the second - 15 days. But default is not automatically declared: it is necessary that at least 25% of issue holders declare it. If this happens, holders of the remaining issues may submit them for early redemption (“cross default”).

The Ministry of Finance previously tested the method of actually fulfilling obligations under eurobonds in rubles (with the dollar as the original currency) through the procedure for early redemption of securities at a price of 100% of the face value. Since the offer is voluntary, there can be no default due to the redemption of securities in rubles, Hess told RBC. In addition, the redemption of securities is not legally considered redemption, so it can be carried out on any terms. However, at the end of March, non-residents almost did not present papers for early redemption for rubles, because they had no guarantees that they would be able to exchange them for dollars and withdraw them from Russia.

The terms of Russian sovereign Eurobonds also provide for the possibility of changing the issue currency, however, for this, the holders, who account for 75% of the issue, must vote for such a change.

Also, Russia may retain the possibility of debt payments in euros to non-US holders. On May 4, the European Commission reported that European sanctions do not prohibit the Russian government from servicing Eurobonds issued before March 9. In addition, on April 1, the UK government allowed the use of British financial infrastructure to make payments on sovereign debt until at least June 30.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1530431209376915457

When wars are started the people starting them dont think about the economic outcomes of it.

 

[blackjack]

Very informative about the gains done by ukraine and russia