Live Conflict Ukraine-Russia War

[Hexciter]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1499888491173449728

 

[Deliorman]

The deceased pilot is Krivolapov Konstantin Vladimirovich. He participated in Russian operations in Syria in 2015. The pilot of one of the planes that bombed Aleppo.
View attachment 40578

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1500081248462594049

Look the guy who’s just behind Putin

View attachment 40579

The swine next to Assad is also the one who got captured earlier today- we saw his photos. Now Ukrainians will make him cry like a bitch while in captivity, be sure about it. These sons of bitches made hundreds of mothers and children cry in Aleppo and were now sent to do the same in Ukraine too so there will be no mercy on them.

ps To see pilots from Syria now being used in Ukraine maybe speaks bad for the Russian Air Force as well. Maybe the number of battle ready pilots and planes isn't as big as presented by Russia at all.

 

[Barzani]

Back after consultation?

What do you mean?

 

[Manomed]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1499888491173449728

Bruh su 27 is a Interceptır/fighter not a bomber It doesn't have precise munitions or pods how did it destroyed a buk russian bullshit as usual Im suprised If they shotdown anything with those garbages caleld sukhoi lol

 

[Barzani]

If losses are as high as stated by the Ukrainians, or even close to being that high, the amount of territory they have taken is negligible. Urban warfare is next, and if they decide to level every Ukrainian city like Grozny, not only will that take quite a long time but also a ton of supplies. I believe if the Russians do start an indiscriminate, large-scale artillery campaign of urban environments, which will only fuel a bigger insurgency that could very well disrupt backline logistics.
The further into Ukraine they go, the longer their supply lines.

Keep in mind the U.S lost 196 men in the 2003 invasion of Iraq, which lasted just under a month.

The US is miles away and above other armies lol, there is no power on Earth that is even close to the US military, they are decades ahead. Secondly, the US was up against an army that was exhausted and far from being peer to peer. This is closer to peer to peer + Western covert support and western weapon systems are flooding Ukraine at a large scale. NLAW's, Javelins, Stingers, its a big deal. If Russia takes half of Ukraine in a month with around 5000 causualties, that is a victory in my opinion, if their economy survives it.

I mentioned previously in my post these weapons would end up flooding the western Ukraine but the timing was too slow and would unlikely make it to the east in large quanties needed to completely stop the Russian advance. So, it looks so far like the West sacrificed Ukraine to bleed Russia. This is a short term plan if Russia passes this test.

You are comparing casualties incorrectly imo, Putin obviously does not consider these casualties as of primary importance or cost, if his administration remains and he takes half of Ukraine up to the Dnieper river and his economy somwhow survives, this is a bigger win than loss to him, especially considering the geopolitcal stage change from the black sea, economic supply chain routes e.t.c. There was a calculus in Putin signing a comprehensive alliance with Azerbaijan, things like this. EU still buying Russian energy, e.t.c.

Also, the west is winning on social media, we don't know the Ukrainian losses yet. I know before this war was launched most of the Ukrainian army was around Donbass front lines. Where are they now? How many are surrounded and cut off ? Did they retreat in large amounts? are they still there? We saw footage of lots of Russian helicopters operating on the first day of the assault but a miniscule amount of them compared to what Putin had mustered on the border (150 helicopters).

Images show new deployments of forces, 150 helicopters in southern Belarus -Maxar

Satellite imagery taken on Friday showed several large deployments of ground forces and about 150 transport helicopters in southern Belarus, about 20 miles from the border with Ukraine, a private U.S. company said.

www.reuters.com

Does that mean they already destroyed many of the fixed Ukrainian positions around Donbass or Ukrainian armored elements attempting to reposition? There's next to nothing on footage of Ukrainian troop movements, OPSEC, likely meaning the West is actively censoring social media and involved in the Intelligence side of things.

Remember, Russia launched this war on the calculation that NATO expanding eastwards was a bigger loss than what Putin is doing currently. Social media is all saying Russia is losing big time, but we don't have an accurate picture on the calculus and rationale on the otherside or what the cost has been to the west yet. I'm reluctant to just say, "Russia lose, west win" because of what I'm seeing on Social media. Territorial gains count, too if we also take into account what Russia is capturing. Is the West going to just pay for Ukrainian electricty for the next 15 years now? Is West Ukraine going to be a rump state like Idlib?

 

[McCool]

Reinforcements go to the Russian army from Rostov

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1500149100737609729

Is this supposed to be a joke or what ?

 

[tomthebotfly]

The US is miles away and above other armies lol, there is no power on Earth that is even close to the US military, they are decades ahead.

You are comparing casualties incorrectly, Putin obviously does not consider these casualties as of primary importance, if his administration remains and he takes half of Ukraine up to the Dnieper river and his economy somwhow survives, this is a bigger win than loss, especially considering the geopolitcal stage change. Secondly, the west is winning on social media, we don't know the Ukrainian losses yet.

Remember, this was launched on the calculation that NATO expanding eastwards was a bigger loss than what he's doing currently.

It was also launched on the calculation that Ukraine would surrender quickly without much of a fight. Were Sweden and Finland included in that calculation too? With this many weapons, I wouldn't be surprised if resistance remains for at least a few years. However at this point it is clear the Russian Government regards pulling out as a worse option than taking the losses and committing. The Russian economy is already destroyed, the markets have been closed for the past week and banks are preventing Russians from taking out cash. There's a massive drop in confidence in the reliability of the Russian market.

If Putin stays, Russia will have to resort to China to sell their gas, at way lower price than Europe pays nowadays. It also takes new infrastructure (new pipelines take years to build). The Post-Cold War Era is over, imo, and the world order might change significantly over the next few years.

 

[Hexciter]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1500147285136658436

 

[goldsilver]

It was also launched on the calculation that Ukraine would surrender quickly without much of a fight. Were Sweden and Finland included in that calculation too? With this many weapons, I wouldn't be surprised if resistance remains for at least a few years. However at this point it is clear the Russian Government regards pulling out as a worse option than taking the losses and committing. The Russian economy is already destroyed, the markets have been closed for the past week and banks are preventing Russians from taking out cash. There's a massive drop in confidence in the reliability of the Russian market.

If Putin stays, Russia will have to resort to China to sell their gas, at way lower price than Europe pays nowadays. It also takes new infrastructure (new pipelines take years to build). The Post-Cold War Era is over, imo, and the world order might change significantly over the next few years.

Another miscalculation for Russia is that the Ukrainians now have the ability to reclaim Crimea either military or part of any ceasefire agreement. Had the Russians sat on their arms and not waged war, most probably Crimea would have been under Russian control forever.

 

[Barzani]

It was also launched on the calculation that Ukraine would surrender quickly without much of a fight. Were Sweden and Finland included in that calculation too? With this many weapons, I wouldn't be surprised if resistance remains for at least a few years. However at this point it is clear the Russian Government regards pulling out as a worse option than taking the losses and committing. The Russian economy is already destroyed, the markets have been closed for the past week and banks are preventing Russians from taking out cash. There's a massive drop in confidence in the reliability of the Russian market.

If Putin stays, Russia will have to resort to China to sell their gas, at way lower price than Europe pays nowadays. It also takes new infrastructure (new pipelines take years to build). The Post-Cold War Era is over, imo, and the world order might change significantly over the next few years.

This talk of multipolarity is bullshit imo, the US is going to remain the sole power.

The resistance isn't going to be able to take back the territory lost though. If they remain in western Ukraine, why would Putin care? Sure, losses would be higher. But he has two independent states he just recognized to take the brunt and non-russian forces to use.

 

[Barzani]

Another miscalculation for Russia is that the Ukrainians now have the ability to reclaim Crimea either military or part of any ceasefire agreement. Had the Russians sat on their arms and not waged war, most probably Crimea would have been under Russian control forever.

Strong doubt. Really strong doubt on this one. Ukraine struggled with the separatists for years. How are they going to manage this?

 

[tomthebotfly]

Another miscalculation for Russia is that the Ukrainians now have the ability to reclaim Crimea either military or part of any ceasefire agreement. Had the Russians sat on their arms and not waged war, most probably Crimea would have been under Russian control forever.

I believe the Annexation of Crimea and the proxy invasion of the Donbass was actually a pretty strategic failure of Moscow since beforehand there was a lot of competition between Pro-Russian and Pro-Western political parties and factions, but after the annexation not only did it take away a substantial part of the Pro-Russian voter base, it also further highlighted the stance of Pro-Western Parties.
In the end Russia will most likely win, but it is surely a pyrrhic victory and nothing else, a land of 40 million people, of which most dislike you and a small part will proactively fight you. It could end up like the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan: It doesn't matter how many tanks you have or how many people you kill, you can't explain the number of casualties to your population at home.

 

[Avanti]

I don't think you can compare it to the US invasion against Iraq. Iraqis were completely alone against the most powerful militaries of the World. However Ukraine gets massive supplies from the world wether food & rations or high end military equipment. The US is likely giving them alot of Intel as well. Biden alone wants to give Ukraine $10 Billion in aid

 

[Bogeyman]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1500158629252636674

 

[Mehmed Ali]

I don't think you can compare it to the US invasion against Iraq. Iraqis were completely alone against the most powerful militaries of the World. However Ukraine gets massive supplies from the world wether food & rations or high end military equipment. The US is likely giving them alot of Intel as well. Biden alone wants to give Ukraine $10 Billion in aid

Well in Iraqi USA had a lot of local help and I remember that in London all Iraqis had street parties. No street parties here. Oh I almost forgot another Happy party was Hathemi who 2006 was bragging about Iranian help to USA in Iraq Afghanistan. No parties in Ukraine, they don't give up like others.

 

[Bogeyman]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1500157654253064195

 

[Xenon54]

Ethem Sancak was crying about Bayraktar drones on a Russian channel

This prick could not even get a successful product out.

Where are the people who were defending him?

 

[Al Dakhil]

I believe the Annexation of Crimea and the proxy invasion of the Donbass was actually a pretty strategic failure of Moscow since beforehand there was a lot of competition between Pro-Russian and Pro-Western political parties and factions, but after the annexation not only did it take away a substantial part of the Pro-Russian voter base, it also further highlighted the stance of Pro-Western Parties.

exactly .

 

[Xenon54]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1500086059010568192

I'm starting to wonder if he really believes what he's saying.

Maybe his perception of reality is somehow skewed a bit...

Speaking of neo Nazis, Dmitiri Utkin, one of the Wagner leaders...

 

[Al Dakhil]

Speaking of neo Nazis, Dmitiri Utkin, one of the Wagner leaders...

View attachment 40581

never understand why Slavs would follow Nazi ideology