Live Conflict Ukraine-Russia War

[Era_shield]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1538455159914876928

 

[UkroTurk]

❗️The probability of an attack on Kharkiv is high

As the adviser to the head of the Ministry of Internal Affairs Vadim Denisenko said at the telethon, the situation north of Kharkiv is again quite complicated.

According to him, Russian troops are trying to get closer to Kharkiv in order to try to make it a “front-line city” again.

PS note that they will not take Kharkov, their goal is to get closer in order to shell the city from field artillery, thereby terrorizing the inhabitants of the region

Харків: Kharkiv

 

[Ravenman]

Ukraine is lost. Its game over but nobody wants to admit it.

 

[Jagdflieger]

For some peculiar reason, European leaders want to preserve Putin's face. Nobody wants to mess with the gas station which will fall into small states and not be able to secure its nuclear potential.

Naturally - because aside from oil and gas - Russia has been a main spot for Western investments - and no one incl. the EU can afford to lose that market.

So far the help has been sufficient to initiate Russian Army advance toward its borders from Kyiv and Harkov.

Initiate? you mean to stop or slow down?

10 Caesars more will ruin the Russian Army for sure.

Come on let's stay realistic.

Butcha and Irpin have been convincing examples of how the Russian Army will treat civilians after Russia visits any country.

My analysis is purely based on economic and military data - Russian aggression, human rights violations, etc. do not factor into this analysis, that would be a different topic.

Inflation is a bearable price to pay.

No it isn't - and especially not if this war drags on for another 12-24 month

Please present your evidence,? As of my knowledge, about 500 billion USD worth of RU central bank reserves are frozen in west.

I was referring to Russia's military reserves - not the reserves of it's Central Bank

Hmm, any proof about that?

According to several Western media reports via NATO sources - it's no secret and can be read upon.

Do you really think it is a blessing to become a part of Russki Mir? Estonians learned it a hard way- surrender does not help, a big part of the nation will be killed, imprisoned, enslaved, and raped anyway. Finns did not surrender in the 1940-s and lost fewer people, eventually. Why should it be different in the current case?

Sorry - again the analysis of the military situation, is a different topic from freedom, rape, etc.

Kind of blackmailing, is it not? So let them enjoy it until they can.

Blackmail? Russia isn't forcing the USA or the EU to buy precious minerals. It was and presently remains their choice of supplier. Dumb Trump regarding such "dependency" issues already declared Billion $ investments 4-5 years ago. Obviously nothing has been done. Because in the end all this rethoric ends up in $ and cents.

Hereby you might be right. Still, the timing for price blackmail is the worst there can be. In the middle of the heat wave? Thing is, Europe pays well, and China not so well at all. Should one kill a goose laying golden eggs? Kind of stupid, if anyone asks from me...

Democracies entirely depend on the goodwill and economic well being of their citizens, that is why usually every 4 years the government's intentions shift, or is replaced by another ruling party beholding another agenda.
And this is what makes a long term planing (beholding specific agendas) more or less impossible.

 

[Xenon54]

In form of drippings? USA maybe 12 instead of 4 MLRS systems? France sending another 5 Caesar's?

Enough to bleed out Russia, look how much Russian advancement in Ukraine slowed.

According to who? western Media? - or substantial confirmed evidence? Russia so far hasn't even begun to substantially tap it's reserves.

Oh really? A bnig chunk of Russian monetary assets are frozen, apart from that they started sending old gear to Ukraine, if they still have reserves then what are they waiting for. Where are the T90's? The airforce? why did Rocket and Artillery strikes decrese? Where is Russian navy? What happened to amphibious attack on Odessa?

The Ukraine forces are facing increased desertion and lowering moral issues (according to Western media and NATO sources) and it is going to get worse since so far the UAF can't see any viable success or achievements.

Same can be said about Russian army, add to that the huge humiliation in the first month of the invasion and failed capture of Kiev and Khakiv. So far Ukraine has been holding way better agains a much stronger enemy than anyone expected, first and foremost the Russians can comfirm that.

Would you have any confirmed figures as to the $ value of oil and gas - reduced by EU and possible value of oil and gas being supplied by Russia to other customers?
In regards to e.g. titanium and other precious minerals both the EU and the USA keep buying - just as before.

Are you sure that the EU citizens will just simply accept e.g. Euro 2.60+/l at the gas station and continious rising inflation without causing repercussions towards their present government's and their internal political coalitions?

Decreasing Russian gas share on european market will take time but is definitely doable in the next couple years, all the west has to do is to keep Russia in chek in the mean time which is easy to do seeing the performance of their armed forces.

A Share of 35% can be replaced until 2025.

How Europe can cut natural gas imports from Russia significantly within a year​

 

[Jagdflieger]

Enough to bleed out Russia, look how much Russian advancement in Ukraine slowed.

Bleeding out Russia will take years - years that NATO and the Ukraine don't have.
Indeed there is only a slow-motion-steamroller advance by Russia if at all - however Ukraine hasn't been able to stop it, not to mention regaining any significant territory size since April.

Oh really? A bnig chunk of Russian monetary assets are frozen,

yes, Russia is bound to take an economical it - but it's nowhere going to be near a collapse.

apart from that they started sending old gear to Ukraine,

Old gear for the DNLR forces to rearguard occupied territory

if they still have reserves then what are they waiting for.

Waiting for the time where they might need them - presently Russia is obviously not in need and therefore not making use of them

Where are the T90's? The airforce?

Kept in reserve in case NATO decides to escalate - just as NATO is not willing to give away it's part of deterence

why did Rocket and Artillery strikes decrese?

Would you have a source or statistic to proof that?

Where is Russian navy?

Not really existing in force in the Black-Sea and obviously far to vulnerable to missile or drone attacks. But their Sub's are continually engaged in firing missiles and taking on new ones.

What happened to amphibious attack on Odessa?

When was that supposedly planed? and with what non-existing Russian amphibious forces is it supposed to take place? - excluding some possible commando raids.

Same can be said about Russian army, add to that the huge humiliation in the first month of the invasion and failed capture of Kiev and Khakiv.

Certainly the RF and the DNLR aren't in high spirits - but they are not "freedom" and "democracy" oriented military units - unlike those of the Ukraine.

So far Ukraine has been holding way better agains a much stronger enemy than anyone expected, first and foremost the Russians can comfirm that.

Taking into account that the UAF had almost 8 years time to plan, setup and fortify it's defensive lines and positions and that both the UAF and the RF with their DNLR forces are more or less equally matched - I really don't see the UAF "holding way better".
According to military doctrine an attacker needs to field approx. 3 times the numbers of a defender. I don't see Russia having 700-800,000 men in action. But due to their missile forces and artillery superiority they are able to hold ground and gain considerable ground since end of April.

Decreasing Russian gas share on european market will take time but is definitely doable in the next couple years, all the west has to do is to keep Russia in chek in the mean time which is easy to do seeing the performance of their armed forces.

A Share of 35% can be replaced until 2025.

How Europe can cut natural gas imports from Russia significantly within a year​

View attachment 45101

i wasn't refering to the gas and oil business that Russia might lose from end of 2022 onward, but as to how much of that loss are they able to compensate via new customers.

 

[Xenon54]

Bleeding out Russia will take years - years that NATO and the Ukraine don't have.
Indeed there is only a slow-motion-steamroller advance by Russia if at all - however Ukraine hasn't been able to stop it, not to mention regaining any significant territory size since April.

Why not? Who do you think is on the shorter end when its about financing the conflict? Ukraine has no problem here, the west will supply them whatever is needed, its Russia thats running out of time.

yes, Russia is bound to take an economical it - but it's nowhere going to be near a collapse.

Doesnt need a collapse to loose the war.

Waiting for the time where they might need them - presently Russia is obviously not in need and therefore not making use of them

Is its russian plan to stall in kind of a stalemate?

Kept in reserve in case NATO decides to escalate - just as NATO is not willing to give away it's part of deterence

The T90's will be sitting ducks if NATO truly decides to escalate, Russian gear is simply no match against western equivalents.

Would you have a source or statistic to proof that?

There was a graph that was posted a month or so ago by a member in this thread, could be @500 im not sure, other than that i obviously didnt make my own stats yet anyone who followed the war from the beginning can confirm the intensity of missile attacks has great decreased, so did the use of airforce.
Russia was sending choppers and fighters in waves in the first weeks which is obviously not the case anymore.
The fact that they still didnt establish air superiority yet, nor conduct night missions or at least use precision giuded munition is a great reminder of the limited capabilities of their forces.

When was that supposedly planed? and with what non-existing Russian amphibious forces is it supposed to take place? - excluding some possible commando raids.

Russia deployed three tank landing ships in Black sea early february this year, those are not there for decoration, they were sailing close to Odessa for weeks until Moskva disaster happened.

Taking into account that the UAF had almost 8 years time to plan, setup and fortify it's defensive lines and positions and that both the UAF and the RF with their DNLR forces are more or less equally matched - I really don't see the UAF "holding way better".
According to military doctrine an attacker needs to field approx. 3 times the numbers of a defender. I don't see Russia having 700-800,000 men in action. But due to their missile forces and artillery superiority they are able to hold ground and gain considerable ground since end of April.

Ukraine didnt really prepare, what they need is modern airforce and air defence with ABM capabilities which is not being suplied by the west, heck even manpads and anti tank got supplied after Russian invasion.
How is Russia gonna field that many men when even the current forces walk around with rubber wests and steel helmets? They cant supply their troops on the frontline, soldiers get expired rations and those are the lucky ones who get food at all.

i wasn't refering to the gas and oil business that Russia might lose from end of 2022 onward, but as to how much of that loss are they able to compensate via new customers.

As said diversifying energy sources and investing in modern technologies, heating for exsample, it can be done by heat pumps, the new buildings rarely get a gas or oil heating system, if anything only as backup system but not main system.
The share of Russian energy can be decreased significantly in short and middle term.

https://www.energymonitor.ai/policy/how-can-the-eu-end-its-dependence-on-russian-gas

 

[Mailman]

Naturally - because aside from oil and gas - Russia has been a main spot for Western investments - and no one incl. the EU can afford to lose that market.

Lenin said it well- useful idiots. Capitalists will sell hanging rope meant for themselves if it will bring 300% profit. Regarding the investments in Russia- it is lost already, but probably have been fully paid off decades ago.

No it isn't - and especially not if this war drags on for another 12-24 month

Two words: wishful thinking. Obviously, you do not imagine how rich European societies are. Imagine a choice: to be brutally raped, robbed, and killed or not to buy a new car this year? That will be an easy sale for politicians.

I was referring to Russia's military reserves - not the reserves of it's Central Bank

Right, you mean the rare pieces of equipment which are still not looted by Russians themselves? As they say: мечтат не вредно (nothing bad comes from dreaming). Dumb bombs remain the Russian strongest assets and just because it is useless to steal those.

Democracies entirely depend on the goodwill and economic well being of their citizens, that is why usually every 4 years the government's intentions shift, or is replaced by another ruling party beholding another agenda.
And this is what makes a long term planing (beholding specific agendas) more or less impossible.

Somewhat true, but not entirely. The military is very costly and free societies do not like to spend on it too much unless absolutely necessary. Sweden has given up 200 years of neutrality and chose to join NATO just because of Russian aggression in Ukraine. Israel, a democratic country, by all means, has the most advanced military setting in the region because of the imminent threat from Iran and alike. Finland has the most advanced artillery in Europe because of- how to put it nicely- truly beloved peacemongering eastern neighbor. It will take time for a democratic society to step out of the convenience zone, but it will happen inevitably if there is an urgent necessity. Miracles will happen, otherwise, democracy has been wiped out thousands of years ago.

 

[Ecderha]

Captured russian solider
No words

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1538587883069652994

 

[Ecderha]

russians crimes....................Sickening indeed

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1538599567624753154

 

[Nilgiri]

A very sound, neutral, well put together analysis I recommend...well worth listening to it all or flicking through the bullet point slides etc if you are short on time.

When Russia commenced its invasion of Ukraine on 24 February, the West responded with a harsh regime of sanctions and measures that were intended to deeply wound the Russian economy.

Now, more than 100 days on, it's hard to find consensus over exactly how well those measures are working. Some will tell you that Russia is on its knees, incapable of carrying on the war much longer, while others will insist that it's Ukraine and Europe that are about to break.

In this video I look at the sanctions measures that have been imposed, what impact they've had, and try to assess how well the Russian and Ukrainian economies are holding up, and what may be next in store as the fighting (and economic pressure) continues.

 

[Manomed]

Some (Western) social media fairytales:

1.- 'Russia's economy will fall!'

2.- 'Turkish people are hungry!'

3.- 'Homosexuality is genetic!'

4.- 'Humans are causing climatechange!'

Nearly $100 billion worth of deals signed in Saint Petersburg

Nearly 700 deals worth almost $100 billion were signed during the annual economic forum in Russia

www.rt.com

ravenman you are an zaza and pro akp please keep your Ideas to yourself. You might have those sweet sweet euros but average turk doesn't we cant even afford meat ffs

 

[Manomed]

Russian POW allegedy captured at Sievierodonetsk:

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1538452163789193216

Ru SU-25 pilot captured:

72 ОМБр ім.Чорних Запорожців

А ось і пілот намалювався. Живий трофеї 72-ї ОМБ. ім Чорних Запорожців. Наші військовики надали знімання пілота збитого російського Су-25, який встиг катапультуватися. Чоловік живий, має травми через "м'яке" приземлення, йому надали першу допомогу, він в надійних та дбайливих руках ЗСУ. @ombr72

t.me

Imagine your air force still doing WW2 style rockets runs because you lack the technology this isn't some third world country Its the strongest second army in the world even small Turkey has better PGMs.

 

[Manomed]

Ukraine is lost. Its game over but nobody wants to admit it.

Ravenman we got it you like WW2 era germany and hate westerners lmao

 

[Jagdflieger]

Why not? Who do you think is on the shorter end when its about financing the conflict? Ukraine has no problem here, the west will supply them whatever is needed, its Russia thats running out of time.

Doesnt need a collapse to loose the war.

Is its russian plan to stall in kind of a stalemate?

The T90's will be sitting ducks if NATO truly decides to escalate, Russian gear is simply no match against western equivalents.

There was a graph that was posted a month or so ago by a member in this thread, could be @500 im not sure, other than that i obviously didnt make my own stats yet anyone who followed the war from the beginning can confirm the intensity of missile attacks has great decreased, so did the use of airforce.
Russia was sending choppers and fighters in waves in the first weeks which is obviously not the case anymore.
The fact that they still didnt establish air superiority yet, nor conduct night missions or at least use precision giuded munition is a great reminder of the limited capabilities of their forces.

Russia deployed three tank landing ships in Black sea early february this year, those are not there for decoration, they were sailing close to Odessa for weeks until Moskva disaster happened.

View attachment 45102


Ukraine didnt really prepare, what they need is modern airforce and air defence with ABM capabilities which is not being suplied by the west, heck even manpads and anti tank got supplied after Russian invasion.
How is Russia gonna field that many men when even the current forces walk around with rubber wests and steel helmets? They cant supply their troops on the frontline, soldiers get expired rations and those are the lucky ones who get food at all.

As said diversifying energy sources and investing in modern technologies, heating for exsample, it can be done by heat pumps, the new buildings rarely get a gas or oil heating system, if anything only as backup system but not main system.
The share of Russian energy can be decreased significantly in short and middle term.

View attachment 45103

View attachment 45104

https://www.energymonitor.ai/policy/how-can-the-eu-end-its-dependence-on-russian-gas

Well - let's wait and see as to how the situation presents itself by October - till then we simply agree to disagree.

 

[Soldier30]

A Russian high-speed landing craft of the Caspian Flotilla was spotted off the coast of Sevastopol, possibly Russia has again begun preparations for a landing operation in Odessa. Project 21820 Dugong air cavity landing craft went into production in 2006. The boat has a jet propulsion and is able to move in shallow water, while developing a speed of 65 km / h.

The Russian Ministry of Defense showed the combat work of the calculation of the 220-mm MLRS "Hurricane" in Ukraine, the calculation of the installation receives target designation from the UAV "Orlan-10". The video shows the 9K57 Uragan version mounted on the ZIL-135LM chassis and put into service in 1975. In terms of the main characteristics of the Uragan MLRS, it significantly surpassed the B-21 Grad MLRS, the area of destruction increased 10 times and amounted to 42 hectares.

A massive missile strike by the Russian army destroyed the Shebelinsky gas and oil refinery in the village of Andreevka in the south of Kharkiv. The refinery supplied the armed forces of Ukraine with fuel. Judging by the size of the fire, it can be concluded that there is a sufficiently large amount of fuel reserves at the enterprise.

 

[UkroTurk]

Ukrainian Armed Forces struck at the drilling rigs of Chernomorneftegaz - the "head" of Crimea Sergey Aksyonov
( Platforms used to belong to Ukraine)

Ukraine hits oil Crimean drilling platforms, pro-Russian regional head says

Ukrainian forces attacked drilling platforms in the Black Sea owned by a Crimean oil and gas company, the pro-Russian head of the annexed peninsula said on Monday, giving no details of what weapons were used.

www.reuters.com

More than 100 people were on three drilling platforms in the Black Sea, which were hit by the Armed Forces of Ukraine, said the "head" of Crimea Sergey Aksyonov.

According to Aksyonov, the strongest blow fell on the first tower. “There were 12 people there, five of them were injured, the search for the rest continues,” he said.

The attack on oil rigs of Chernomorneftegaz unleashed the hands of the Russian Federation, in the near future retaliatory strikes will be inflicted on decision-making centers, said State Duma deputy from Crimea Sheremet.

Lithuania blocked Kaliningrad

Lithuania Bans Transit Of Sanctioned Russian Goods To Kaliningrad

Lithuania has begun a ban on the rail transit of goods subject to European Union sanctions to the Russian far-western exclave of Kaliningrad, transport authorities in the Baltic nation said on June 18.

www.rferl.org

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/lithuania-defends-ban-on-some-goods-to-russias-kaliningrad/2022/06/20/99e3ff82-f09e-11ec-ac16-8fbf7194cd78_story.html

❗️Russia seriously threatens NATO with war

An incredible howl arose in the swamps about the ban on the transit of goods to the Kaliningrad region from Lithuania. There is an unequivocal threat of war.

"Lithuania's decision to blockade the Kaliningrad region is unprecedented, it is a violation of everything and everything," Putin's talking head Peskov said.

Andrey Klimov, head of the Federation Council Commission for the Protection of the State Sovereignty of the Russian Federation, threatened that if the EU "does not immediately correct the impudent exit of Vilnius, it will disavow for us the legitimacy of all documents on Lithuania's membership in the EU and untie hands to solve the problem of Kaliningrad transit created by Lithuania in ANY way we choose ".

Come on, rashists, unleash a war with NATO. You want to "get it right, don't indulge", we see

It's funny to hear about violations of "everything and everything" from representatives of a superpower, isn't it?

Ukraine will protect itself by shovels



This was stated by Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmitry Kuleba for the ARD television channel.
According to him, no one in the West should believe that Ukrainians will be more willing to make concessions without supplying weapons.
"If we do not receive weapons, well, then we will fight with shovels, but we will defend ourselves, because this war is a war for our existence," Kuleba emphasized.
The minister noted that Ukraine has significantly less weapons than Russia.

❗️ Dozens of explosions on Zmeiny Island - media

The Ukrainian public has been reporting explosions on the island since the morning. Eyewitnesses also talk about rockets that flew towards Zmeiny.

Something tells us that the Armed Forces of Ukraine organized "Zmeebaevka" for the orcs there!

We are waiting for official confirmation of the information and believe in our defenders

 

[Ecderha]

russian rapists, looters were caught while they were looting a house.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1538863688127594498

 

[Bogeyman]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1538942520415162370

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1538942524164907009

 

[Ecderha]

Javelin's time-lapse launch.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1538869733440765957