Live Conflict Ukraine-Russia War

[Ecderha]

Several members of the German neo-Nazi groups Third Way & Young Nationalists received training at Partizan’s training camp in russia.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1539943694047989760

German news media confirm it

Deutsche Neonazis an russischer Waffe ausgebildet – Training in St. Petersburg

In St. Petersburg bildet die rechtsextreme Organisation Russian Imperial Move...

www.t-online.de

 

[Gary]

Hi everyone. Here is a Sunday read for you.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1543506679106519042

Now that the Russian navy have failed to provide air umbrella with the loss of Moskva and failing to reinforce the island properly resulting in the abandonment of the island. What do you think the Russian navy role moving forward ?

 

[Jagdflieger]

I am personally happy about this discussion, unfortunately becoming too personal lately. Who said it: "I disapprove of what you say, but I will defend to the death your right to say it."? Kind of basic value for the free world, isn't it?
I am sure my opponent Jagdflieger has his own reasons to express his opinions as they are. For me, those represent (China's?) chauvinism, trying to project the invincibility properties of the aggressor. Small nations should surrender silently whatever and whenever a stronger country decides to conquer those because resistance is pointless. Very convenient, indeed.

Well, freedom is not for free. The nations whose representatives will not want to die for it will vanish. Democracy has its own flaws for sure, one of them is to focus on citizens' prosperity rather than pumping its military muscles. The constant political fight and problems to find consensus remain always a challenge, but it is also a strength. This damn compromise is usually the right answer, as proven in practice so many times. The only condition is that this compromise should grow from an unbiased basis. As soon as somebody thinks he owns the truth, he is doomed. Societal challenges are never easy ones and if mr. Putin or mr. Xi thinks they know it all- well, think twice.

Me, personally, having experience living in two different social systems- socialism and capitalism, I like the latter one. I am free to think and express my opinion now, invent my own path suitable for me. Personal freedom is worth dying for to pass this freedom to my children despite the lullaby of Chinese superiority or the Russian World. Russians have a good saying regarding latter:

Лапша На Уши (hang spaghetti over my ears)​

Even though I appreciate your post - the content is actually irrelevant to the discussion of the military situation in Ukraine.
Placing words into other peoples mouth or "assuming" other's political conviction or motives is also irrelevant and only incites needles discussions.

You can re-read any post of mine in regards to the military situation in Ukraine - those posts are purely based on the actual military situation and the actual politics of all sides governing this ridiculous war. - nothing more nothing less.

E.g. If I look onto the last military situation map posted by @500, it is obvious (at least to me) that this map is nonsensical.

It states: Blue - territory captured by Russia in 3.5 months of fierce offensive - 3,5 month ago would have been mid of March.
E.g. Mariupol and vast surrounding territory was only captured in end of April, Asov Steelplant end of May - so both should be blue.
Popasna (the maybe most strategic win for Russia so far) happened end of April - so the entire Popasna bulge should be blue
The entire areas southwest and northeast of Kershon - should be blue, and so on....

The green "liberated" territory exists to more then 80% due to Russian forces having been withdrawn within 2-4 weeks - and not due to month of combat.
See Map dated from March 3rd.

So if someone backs up his military view's or judgement onto a map, such as @500 has shown -(nothing personal against @500 at all) that person's assumptions would be likely utterly wrong.
And that is why we are having or should have such discussions - analyzing facts, and not unsubstantiated personal statements and insults.

 

[Mailman]

Even though I appreciate your post - the content is actually irrelevant to the discussion of the military situation in Ukraine.
Placing words into other peoples mouth or "assuming" other's political conviction or motives is also irrelevant and only incites needles discussions.

The military situation emerged in Ukraine because of aggressive neighbor, namely Russia, attacked this peaceful nation on the 24.-th of February 2022 and has since killed countless civilians without any other reason but one invented by themselves. Normal people would have moved Moscow behind the Urals, if the location of Russian capital is a problem. No, the only way to keep Mother Russia safe is to kill their neighbors. If nobody told you, this is sick and unforgivable!

You can re-read any post of mine in regards to the military situation in Ukraine - those posts are purely based on the actual military situation and the actual politics of all sides governing this ridiculous war. - nothing more nothing less.

I start to doubt that. Surrender Russia, because Ukraine does not have aerial superiority? I have a piece of news, the vast majority of wars have been won without any air support over history. How we are going to explain this, Kampfpiloten?
Infanterie, du bist die Krone aller Waffen Infanterie?

 

[Jagdflieger]

The military situation emerged in Ukraine because of aggressive neighbor, namely Russia, attacked this peaceful nation on the 24.-th of February 2022 and has since killed countless civilians without any other reason but one invented by themselves. Normal people would have moved Moscow behind the Urals, if the location of Russian capital is a problem. No, the only way to keep Mother Russia safe is to kill their neighbors. If nobody told you, this is sick and unforgivable!

Yes Russia attacked, and countless civilians are dead and suffering and many more are to come - so now you want to endlessly stress upon a fact, that is known to everyone?

...... I have a piece of news, the vast majority of wars have been won without any air support over history. How we are going to explain this, Kampfpiloten?

You want to discuss about pre. WW2 issues now? or present Ukraine?
Ukraine has nothing in regards to air-superiority - And they have no viable Air-force power to inflict any serious damage towards their adversaries.

 

[Era_shield]

Interesting pic showing some of the equipment that was stationed on Snake Island before Russia retreated from it:

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1543556929691189249

 

[Mailman]

Yes Russia attacked, and countless civilians are dead and suffering and many more are to come - so now you want to endlessly stress upon a fact, that is known to everyone?

Thank you, I was not sure until now. Issue clarified.

You want to discuss about pre. WW2 issues now? or present Ukraine?
Ukraine has nothing in regards to air-superiority - And they have no viable Air-force power to inflict any serious damage towards their adversaries.

Again interesting argument from a military point of view. I rely now on data published in

FlightGlobal World Air Forces directory_2022​

UKRAINE
Ukrainian Air Force
Type	Active	Ordered
Combat aircraft
MiG-29	43​
Su-24	12​
Su-25	17​
Su-27	26​
Special mission
An-30 (Recce)	3​
Transport
An-24/26	22​
An-70	1​
An-178		3​
Il-76	7​
Combat helicopter
Mi-8	15​
Training aircraft/helicopters
L-39	47​
MiG-29	8​
Su-27	6​
Ukraine Army Aviation
Type	Active	Ordered
Combat helicopter
Mi-8	54​
Mi-24	34​
Training aircraft/helicopters
Mi-2	10​
Ukrainian Navy
Type	Active	Ordered
Special mission
Be-12 (SAR)	2​
Transport
An-26	2​
Combat helicopter
Ka-27	4​
Ka-226	1​
Mi-14	4​

 

[Ecderha]

When world diplomats go to Ukraine capital Kyiv to see russian genocide on civilians.

On other side of russian slaves state like Belarus, Armenia do everything to be neutral even Kazakhstan head of state say it on putin state "what you doing in Ukraine is against international laws and Kazakhstan will not support russian evil WAR"

But...............................................

Just have look what is doing Serbian Minister of Interior.
He went to russian occupied Ukraine territory and show his support for russia and russian of killing and taking Ukraine soil.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1543387832676384769

I hope Ukraine government Respond to this. Serbia government officials made BIG mistake

 

[MaciekRS]

Yes Russia attacked, and countless civilians are dead and suffering and many more are to come - so now you want to endlessly stress upon a fact, that is known to everyone?

You want to discuss about pre. WW2 issues now? or present Ukraine?
Ukraine has nothing in regards to air-superiority - And they have no viable Air-force power to inflict any serious damage towards their adversaries.

Did you ever heard about Vietnam war?
Yeah, so much air superiority

And by the way you saying in previous post that russia sent only 25% of its forces to Ukraine its just laughable. This war for Russia is now single most important war after WWII. They will won or Russia is DONE. They will send everything they got with reserves, they are even sending troops from Kaliningrad their most important fortress on the west.

 

[Jagdflieger]

Thank you, I was not sure until now. Issue clarified.

Again interesting argument from a military point of view. I rely now on data published in

FlightGlobal World Air Forces directory_2022​

UKRAINE
Ukrainian Air Force
Type	Active	Ordered
Combat aircraft
MiG-29	43​
Su-24	12​
Su-25	17​
Su-27	26​
Special mission
An-30 (Recce)	3​
Transport
An-24/26	22​
An-70	1​
An-178		3​
Il-76	7​
Combat helicopter
Mi-8	15​
Training aircraft/helicopters
L-39	47​
MiG-29	8​
Su-27	6​
Ukraine Army Aviation
Type	Active	Ordered
Combat helicopter
Mi-8	54​
Mi-24	34​
Training aircraft/helicopters
Mi-2	10​
Ukrainian Navy
Type	Active	Ordered
Special mission
Be-12 (SAR)	2​
Transport
An-26	2​
Combat helicopter
Ka-27	4​
Ka-226	1​
Mi-14	4​

The figures you show, are as you know from before February 2022 and are simply, inventory figures.

Conservative estimates from around last month range from 35-45 combat ready Ukrainian fighter/strike fighter aircraft.

Russia, placing estimates at only 50% readiness rate and including estimated conservative losses (75% of Ukraine's claims) would be able to field around 800 fighter/strike aircraft in total.
Assuming that only 20% would be brought into action towards Ukraine form last month on, would add to around 160 Russian fighter/strike aircraft.

These figures show that the Ukrainian Air-force would be unable to fly any larger mission spectrum needed to deliver a significant blow towards the Russian Ground forces and Air-force. Not to mention Russian SAM and AA systems. As such the Ukrainian air-force can only (they are doing it very sporadically) fly single pinpoint missions, that are of no overall significance - but do cause damage and help to undermine Russian moral (the last is difficult to impossible to measure)

In order to significantly disrupt and destroy the presently estimated Russian ground assets incl. the opposing Russian Air-force strength, in multiple mission layers - towards two 30-40km wide breakthrough corridors, whilst suppressing/disabling neighboring Russian forces one would need a minimum of 250-300 fighter/strike aircraft (e.g. F-16's) on the inventory (taking a 70% readiness rate into account) - needless to say, if Ukraine would have such a force Russia would most-likely divert 40% of it's fighter/strike force towards Ukraine and additional SAM and AA units.

As such the actual air-force fighter/strike fighter strength on both sides is a stalemate (due to SAM's and AA) with a slight advantage for the Russian side.

 

[Jagdflieger]

Did you ever heard about Vietnam war?
Yeah, so much air superiority

Did you actually study it - or just watching Vietnam flicks?
Without the US total air-superiority and Air-power they would never have gotten into that war, or would have had to leave Vietnam already in 1968.
You probably believe that 1.1 million North Vietnamese and Viet Cong fighters died due to M-16 and 105mm fire.

And by the way you saying in previous post that russia sent only 25% of its forces to Ukraine its just laughable. This war for Russia is now single most important war after WWII. They will won or Russia is DONE. They will send everything they got with reserves, they are even sending troops from Kaliningrad their most important fortress on the west.

laughable? okay send me your stats and sources stating/proving otherwise, instead of the usual "clowning" statements.

 

[Gary]

Whenever I heard someone stating that Russia intentionally deploy a drip of its overall forces, I could only suggest he visit this particular page.

Russia - 4562, of which: destroyed: 2771, damaged: 97, abandoned: 327, captured: 1367​

https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02/attack-on-europe-documenting-equipment.html

 

[Ravenman]

Russian cargo ship detained in Turkey at Kiev’s request — Ukrainian ambassador

According to Ukrainian Ambassador to Turkey Vasily Bodnar, investigators will meet on Monday to decide about the ship’s fate

tass.com

 

[Jagdflieger]

Whenever I heard someone stating that Russia intentionally deploy a drip of its overall forces, I could only suggest he visit this particular page.

Russia - 4562, of which: destroyed: 2771, damaged: 97, abandoned: 327, captured: 1367​

https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02/attack-on-europe-documenting-equipment.html

Including trucks and jjeeps, artillery, etc.
How many MBT's , AFV, trucks, jeeps, artillery, etc. do you think Russia has???

 

[UkroTurk]

Ukraine is to receive three NASAMS missile systems

NASAMS will increase Ukraine's ability to protect the earth and sky.

The United States will transfer three NASAMS missile systems to Ukraine, Defense Minister Alexei Reznikov said on Sunday, July 3.



"The decision to supply NASAMS for the Ukrainian army. This increases our ability to protect our land and sky. Ukraine's victory in the war against a terrorist state will ensure global security for years to come!" he wrote on Twitter.



Ukrainian servicemen are already being trained on the use of NASAMS air defense systems.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1543501872987885568

 

[Mailman]

The figures you show, are as you know from before February 2022 and are simply, inventory figures.

Conservative estimates from around last month range from 35-45 combat ready Ukrainian fighter/strike fighter aircraft.

Russia, placing estimates at only 50% readiness rate and including estimated conservative losses (75% of Ukraine's claims) would be able to field around 800 fighter/strike aircraft in total.
Assuming that only 20% would be brought into action towards Ukraine form last month on, would add to around 160 Russian fighter/strike aircraft.

These figures show that the Ukrainian Air-force would be unable to fly any larger mission spectrum needed to deliver a significant blow towards the Russian Ground forces and Air-force. Not to mention Russian SAM and AA systems. As such the Ukrainian air-force can only (they are doing it very sporadically) fly single pinpoint missions, that are of no overall significance - but do cause damage and help to undermine Russian moral (the last is difficult to impossible to measure)

In order to significantly disrupt and destroy the presently estimated Russian ground assets incl. the opposing Russian Air-force strength, in multiple mission layers - towards two 30-40km wide breakthrough corridors, whilst suppressing/disabling neighboring Russian forces one would need a minimum of 250-300 fighter/strike aircraft (e.g. F-16's) on the inventory (taking a 70% readiness rate into account) - needless to say, if Ukraine would have such a force Russia would most-likely divert 40% of it's fighter/strike force towards Ukraine and additional SAM and AA units.

As such the actual air-force fighter/strike fighter strength on both sides is a stalemate (due to SAM's and AA) with a slight advantage for the Russian side.

I like your style, Jagdlfieger! Just to throw some arguments without any justification and then spend a day defending it. No matter what anybody says or what facts are presented, Jagdflieger is right because Jagdflieger is right. As said, you have here the privilege to agree to disagree. Enjoy, my friend.

For me, this seems a bit comic. Let's use the same argument in a different context. Russia cannot win because they do not have.. what? Precise and long HIMARS systems. Because.... mmm... this is military argument! Just trust me on that, ok?

 

[Gary]

Including trucks and jjeeps, artillery, etc.
How many MBT's , AFV, trucks, jeeps, artillery, etc. do you think Russia has???

Does that even matter ? most of Russian equipment are in storage, the active ones are the recently modernized equipping numerous Russian frontline unit. Most of Russian "elite" unit such as the 1st, 4th tank army are part of the Russian ORBAT.

Order of battle of the Russian invasion of Ukraine - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

Nobody really buys the notion that Russia intentionally kept its most elite unit behind "to face NATO" while we're seeing even their T-90M are deployed (and destroyed) in Ukraine.

Russia has just lost an equivalent of a guards tank army in its 1 month war (821), and Russia has only 3 of those guards tank armies. A full third of Russian tank forces has been decimated (visually confirmed). The real number is likely larger.

 

[500]

Even though I appreciate your post - the content is actually irrelevant to the discussion of the military situation in Ukraine.
Placing words into other peoples mouth or "assuming" other's political conviction or motives is also irrelevant and only incites needles discussions.

You can re-read any post of mine in regards to the military situation in Ukraine - those posts are purely based on the actual military situation and the actual politics of all sides governing this ridiculous war. - nothing more nothing less.

E.g. If I look onto the last military situation map posted by @500, it is obvious (at least to me) that this map is nonsensical.

It states: Blue - territory captured by Russia in 3.5 months of fierce offensive - 3,5 month ago would have been mid of March.
E.g. Mariupol and vast surrounding territory was only captured in end of April, Asov Steelplant end of May - so both should be blue.
Popasna (the maybe most strategic win for Russia so far) happened end of April - so the entire Popasna bulge should be blue
The entire areas southwest and northeast of Kershon - should be blue, and so on....

The green "liberated" territory exists to more then 80% due to Russian forces having been withdrawn within 2-4 weeks - and not due to month of combat.
See Map dated from March 3rd.

So if someone backs up his military view's or judgement onto a map, such as @500 has shown -(nothing personal against @500 at all) that person's assumptions would be likely utterly wrong.
And that is why we are having or should have such discussions - analyzing facts, and not unsubstantiated personal statements and insults.

I used an official Russian MoD map, you should send all complains to them.

Mariupol was deeply surrounded and only couple neighborhoods remained in Ukrainian hands. U can add little a blue dot on the map.
Popasna u hardly can see on this map. U can add another little blue dot near that blue spot.
Kherson was captured by Russians in first week and they advanced towards Nikolayev. Ukrainians gained territories since then.

 

[Era_shield]

Does that even matter ? most of Russian equipment are in storage, the active ones are the recently modernized equipping numerous Russian frontline unit.

And of the units in storage, most are parked outside and left to rust for decades. Their valuable parts have slowly been stolen and sold off by corrupt Russian commanders. That's why Russia is even bringing ancient T-62s to Ukraine (they've been less cannibalised due to having less valuable parts).

When you think about it (something impossible for a Marxist), if Russia is sending its soldiers to fight in old tanks, it could only mean one of two things: either they can't spare/don't have better equipment, or they don't care about those soldiers dying due to using outdated equipment.

 

[Gary]