Live Conflict Ukraine-Russia War

[Mailman]

Again, Jadgflieger, Ukraine has an empty inventory list with symbolic planes, and Russia has a fully serviceable air fleet? Is it really so?

Regarding the use of the military airforce, I believe both sides managed to create sort of A2/AD areas above the fighting sides. Russia has planes but lacks experienced pilots, and the Ukrainian side has pilots but lacks planes. We do not hear any more Ukrainians asking for soviet planes but long-range artillery, ammo and tanks. Russia uses planes occasionally, for surprise attacks on Snake island and for bombing civilian structures (because they have to launch rockets from Russian, Belorussian or Black sea airspace. Ukraine uses it more for fighting purposes, but very carefully. This way both air forces are grounded and kept for bigger purposes. Honestly, I do not see how Russia anyhow supports its fighting infantry by delivering on-point strikes on the frontline.

So tanks and the rest of armored vehicles are vulnerable to western anti-tank weapons. They estimate about half of the serviceable tanks are consumed in this war and Russia has a long borderline to protect. Among other states, China is eager to get access to the Siberian resource pool. Russia needs to keep some working tanks also there. The rest of the NZ (neprikosnovenni Zapas, not usable reserve) is looted by large, there was a story about a depo commander shooting itself because of 60 tanks only 10 or smth. were able to move. I will find this article in case of necessity.

What Russia has left is relatively much manpower and artillery equipment with a lot of ammo. Hereby they really exceed Ukrainian capabilities, but for how long? Russia is using these resources like it is limitless. No, it is not and definitely not enough to make any significant progress these days. So let's wait and see.

 

[Ecderha]

When russian junk meet west ATGM................ it became Cabrio-version

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1543627537213005827

 

[blackjack]

Today Russia controls much LESS territory in Ukarine than 3.5 month's ago.

Also I should remind u that before the war Russian propaganda claimed they will take Kiev in 2-3 days

For better perspective, here official Russian map from around 20 March:

View attachment 45735

Green - territories liberated territories from Russian occupation.
Blue - territory captured by Russia in 3.5 months of fierce offensive, throwing literally everything they have.

View attachment 45736

they-they didnt take ukraine fast enough wake me up when ukraine gets any kind of territory

 

[blackjack]

I had no idea this guy was from ukraine why wont he use his celebrity influence to cause more western volunteers to fight?

also more updates of ukraine gaining territory as usual.

m777 gets hit https://t.me/DonbassDevushka/13417

 

[Ecderha]

Ukraine team with Stugna-P hunting russian junks

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1543637517924126720

 

[500]

they-they didnt take ukraine fast enough wake me up when ukraine gets any kind of territory

German fascists were doomed after they lost battle of Moscow, despite they advanced even further in 1942.

Similarly Russian fascists are doomed after they lost battle of Kiyev. They can burn destroy and pillage but they are doomed.

 

[blackjack]

German fascists were doomed after they lost battle of Moscow, despite they advanced even further in 1942.

Similarly Russian fascists are doomed after they lost battle of Kiyev. They can burn destroy and pillage but they are doomed.

i might have a little confidence if they can get any kind of territory back and not snake island since that shit just goes back and forth. Thats like saying Turkey did some syrian land grab in their next territory expedition but are bound to lose the war with Syria with no proof. I dont know why its amusing that this board is majorly turkish when I see Turkey and Russia being two peas in a pod in politics stating the ones they are invading are terrorists.

US lost 3000+ planes in Vietnam, there's quite a ways to go until there is going to be some visible effect that the invasion would stop.

 

[Ecderha]

Typical russian troops.......showing russian junk

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1543657968637562881

 

[500]

i might have a little confidence if they can get any kind of territory back and not snake island since that shit just goes back and forth.

They took lots of lands back, I marked in green:

US lost 3000+ planes in Vietnam,

They lost 2,250 loses including 500+ in accidents. Anyway its totally irrelevant coz US forces were on defence and its different epoch.

there's quite a ways to go until there is going to be some visible effect that the invasion would stop.

Russian aggression already failed. Their objectives were:

1) Push NATO back to west.
2) Demilitarize Ukraine.
3) Install puppet government in Ukraine.

Results:

1) NATO moved more towards east gaining two strong countries on Russia border.
2) The Ukrainian army became much stronger, Russian army - weaker.
3) Ukraine became more anti Russian than ever.

 

[MaciekRS]

US lost 3000+ planes in Vietnam, there's quite a ways to go until there is going to be some visible effect that the invasion would stop.

There is CLEAR difference.
If you lost something AND you can produce the same or more its not a big problem.
Russia has only big CCCP magazines with tons of old stuff (like T62 or maybe we will se even T55) When their newer stuff is destroyed its over, they cant even produce cars, so they will not produce anything better then simple first versions of T72 with stock engine without thermovision etc. No new parts, no advanced west components (yes, you can smuggle a little but that is not enough)
Ukraine of course cant produce new equipment either but as long as US will give them something for everything they lost it will be OK. So as long as west is supporting Ukraine Russia will be weaker and weaker.
And remember, weapon factories all over the world are starting to produce at full speed. And that weapon is not for Russia.

 

[Nilgiri]

BREAKING:

Slovakia will donate its MiG-29 fighter jets & T-72M tanks to Ukraine.

The announcement was made by PM Eduard Heger today.

He said he won’t give any details at the moment.

Slovakia has 12 MiG-29s & 30 T-72 tanks.

Czechia will patrol Slovakia’s skies from Sep.

 

[Bogeyman]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1543746681254154240

 

[Era_shield]

A summary of the war so far (here) by a professor of strategic studies that's worth posting in full:

---

It has now been 76 days since the Russians launched the Battle of the Dohnbas. This would make it one of the longest major battles in the 20th and 21st centuries. Many times longer than Kursk,e Bagration Normandy, Bulge, etc. Its much closer to WWI (Somme, Passchendale, Verdun)

And what has happened in the 2.5 months so far. Best to start with this map. Basically the Russians have dialled back enormously on their expectations (and frankly the expectations of others) that they would take a big chunk of Ukrainian territory.


Instead after 11 weeks of combat, major losses and command changes, desperate attempts to raise forces and concentrating their firepower in a very small area, the Russians have compelled to Ukrainians to withdraw from Severodonetsk and Lysychansk.
Even that phrase needs to be emphasized--the Ukrainians have withdrawn in good order, as the Russians have never cut their communications. The map above (and indeed modern combined arms and Russian doctrine) would have had as a basic task an encirclement of Ukrainian forces

However the Russian Army is incapable of fulfilling the basic tasks of modern war. Instead its does incremental, slow advances, a kilometer at a time. It cant brekthrough, it cant exploit, it cant encircle. This is not a sign of an advanced military.
What has it taken. Well in the scheme of things, it might eventually take an amount of territory equivalent to greater London (think within the M25). Here are some maps that make it clear--imposed London on the region.


Had it been said on April 18, that the Russians would have taken such a small amount of territory, at cost, in 77 days, Been unable to encircle Ukrainian forces, etc, it would be have construed as a great Russian failure.

Now going forward, where are we? There seems to be a split between two groups. The Russians will take and hold group and the relative balance will shift group.

The Russians will take and hold group, mostly made up by those who were talking about how easily Russia would conquer Ukraine before Feb 24 and by Russianists who seem desperate to show Russia is a great power to make themselves seem relevant...
are saying that basically Russia can hold what it takes and that Ukraine has to take a peace deal that accepts that. This recent story in @washingtonpost has some of that washingtonpost.com/national-secur…

Basically those who argue that Russia is a great power make this point. Needless to say I dont see Russia as a great power. Its a mid-ranking, deeply flawed power with nuclear weapons. You might have seen this.

As such I definitely believe that the Ukrainians, if properly supported, can drive the Russians back. Indeed the trajectory of the battle (and the constant dialling back of Russian goals) is part of a trend since day 1 of the Ukrainians gaining strength.

What we see is Russia getting increasingly weaker and relying on older systems. There tanks, APCs, missiles, etc, are all degrading as they try to make up losses/wastage by bringing older systems into operation.


Civilian Death Toll Rises as Russians Rely on Older WeaponsThe battle for the eastern city of Lysychansk reaches a pivotal point. While Russia continues to make gains in the east, Ukraine tries to take back lost territory in the south.https://www.nytimes.com/live/2022/0...rease-in-the-second-half-of-june-ukraine-says

Even their soldiers are getting older. As Putin is terrified of bringing the realities of war to his people. The Duma just passed a bill raising the age for military service to 65! This is Volksturm WWII levels of desperation.


Russian Duma Approves Bill Raising Age Limit For Military Personnel To 65Russian parliament's lower chamber, the State Duma, has approved a bill that would raise the upper age limit for military personnel serving in the Russian Army on a contractual basis.https://www.rferl.org/a/russia-raises-military-age/31867388.html

btw--applying WWII analogies on Soviet performance to Russia today dont work The USSR was able to increase production and raise millions of new troops, Russia today cant produce nearly enough modern equipment to cover its losses and is terrified to conscript society.

Otoh, Ukrainian strategy seems coherent. Continue attriting Russian forces until an attempt to push them back can be made. 'when the time is right' kyivindependent.com/national/as-uk…



As Ukraine withdraws from Sievierodonetsk, Battle of Donbas enters next phaseUkrainian T-64 tank drives along a dirt road in the war zone of Donbas on June 21, 2022 (Anatoliy Stepanov)In the Battle of Donbas, Ukraine’s military has made a painful yet long-anticipated decision …https://kyivindependent.com/nationa...erodonetsk-battle-of-donbas-enters-next-phase

Now Ive made it clear that I think this is eminently possible, in this conversation with @EliotACohenfor instance.

Also, the intellectual trajectory of the war shows the Ukrainians adapting and improving and the Russian not. Snake Island one example. The counterrattacks near Kherson another. Smart, low casualty moves, getting closer and closer to a major objective.

So that is why, imho, the Battle of the Donbas, indeed the war as a whole, even with halting Russian advances in the Donbas, has the strong potential to transform in Ukraine's direction going forward. The Ukrainian population sense this too.

• • •

 

[chibiyabi]

do you guys remember in early march, lot of RU logistics channels destroyed by UA when Ru advancing to Kyiv, it seem same story happen again this days

 

[Jagdflieger]

I like your style, Jagdlfieger! Just to throw some arguments without any justification and then spend a day defending it. No matter what anybody says or what facts are presented, Jagdflieger is right because Jagdflieger is right. As said, you have here the privilege to agree to disagree. Enjoy, my friend.

For me, this seems a bit comic. Let's use the same argument in a different context. Russia cannot win because they do not have.. what? Precise and long HIMARS systems. Because.... mmm... this is military argument! Just trust me on that, ok?

i don't like that style in your above post at all.
Not a single substantiated argument to support your "conviction" in regards to the military situation - but 4 sentences of "clowning" statements.

If you don't know how to defend your assessment on the military situation in Ukraine - then just write: I don't agree
And spare me with "clowning" statements.

 

[Jagdflieger]

I used an official Russian MoD map, you should send all complains to them.

Mariupol was deeply surrounded and only couple neighborhoods remained in Ukrainian hands. U can add little a blue dot on the map.
Popasna u hardly can see on this map. U can add another little blue dot near that blue spot.
Kherson was captured by Russians in first week and they advanced towards Nikolayev. Ukrainians gained territories since then.

Doesn't matter who's map you use to justify or point out something, if that map is utterly wrong

Mariupol, it's entire northern and eastern territory wasn't surrounded before 20th of March = see the map I had posted earlier on.
Any other situational map from 3rd of March till end of March will show that as well (3000km2) blue dot?
The Izium to Svatove to Hirske around 4000km2 wasn't occupied by Russia before end of March.
The Popasna Buldge in the meantime is around 1000km2 - that ain't just a blue dot
Russian troops declared Kershon "liberated" on 3rd of March and then went on to occupy a further 1400km2 to it's north-east and south west. (still holding those areas) and 1400km2 isn't a blue dot either.

So Russia managed to occupy and hold from mid March until today around 8000-9000km2 - and not a blue patch that accounts for around 1000km2.

 

[Jagdflieger]

German fascists were doomed after they lost battle of Moscow, despite they advanced even further in 1942.

The Nazis were doomed the day they started the war with Russia

Similarly Russian fascists are doomed after they lost battle of Kiyev. They can burn destroy and pillage but they are doomed.

Why?

 

[Soldier30]

The Russian army began preparations for the assault on Slavyansk. Massive attacks on the positions of the Ukrainian army on the outskirts of Slovyansk have already begun

At about 3 o'clock Belgorod was subjected to massive shelling of the Ukrainian army. Almost all targets were shot down by the Russian air defense system. The governor of the Belgorod region Vyacheslav Gladkov reported a series of pops in the sky of the city and damage to houses. According to Gladkov, at least 39 private residential buildings in Belgorod were partially damaged, five of them were completely destroyed, 11 apartment buildings were also damaged, mostly windows were broken. According to preliminary information, 3 people died.

During the hostilities in Ukraine, the Russian armored car "Tiger" confirmed its high booking quality. Developed in 2005, the Russian armored car "Tiger" and equipped with heat-treated armor plates with a thickness of 5 mm to 7 mm, having hit an anti-tank mine in Ukraine, withstood its explosion, people remained intact

 

[Jagdflieger]

A summary of the war so far (here) by a professor of strategic studies that's worth posting in full:

---

It has now been 76 days since the Russians launched the Battle of the Dohnbas. This would make it one of the longest major battles in the 20th and 21st centuries. Many times longer than Kursk,e Bagration Normandy, Bulge, etc. Its much closer to WWI (Somme, Passchendale, Verdun)

And what has happened in the 2.5 months so far. Best to start with this map. Basically the Russians have dialled back enormously on their expectations (and frankly the expectations of others) that they would take a big chunk of Ukrainian territory.


Instead after 11 weeks of combat, major losses and command changes, desperate attempts to raise forces and concentrating their firepower in a very small area, the Russians have compelled to Ukrainians to withdraw from Severodonetsk and Lysychansk.
Even that phrase needs to be emphasized--the Ukrainians have withdrawn in good order, as the Russians have never cut their communications. The map above (and indeed modern combined arms and Russian doctrine) would have had as a basic task an encirclement of Ukrainian forces

However the Russian Army is incapable of fulfilling the basic tasks of modern war. Instead its does incremental, slow advances, a kilometer at a time. It cant brekthrough, it cant exploit, it cant encircle. This is not a sign of an advanced military.
What has it taken. Well in the scheme of things, it might eventually take an amount of territory equivalent to greater London (think within the M25). Here are some maps that make it clear--imposed London on the region.


Had it been said on April 18, that the Russians would have taken such a small amount of territory, at cost, in 77 days, Been unable to encircle Ukrainian forces, etc, it would be have construed as a great Russian failure.

Now going forward, where are we? There seems to be a split between two groups. The Russians will take and hold group and the relative balance will shift group.

The Russians will take and hold group, mostly made up by those who were talking about how easily Russia would conquer Ukraine before Feb 24 and by Russianists who seem desperate to show Russia is a great power to make themselves seem relevant...
are saying that basically Russia can hold what it takes and that Ukraine has to take a peace deal that accepts that. This recent story in @washingtonpost has some of that washingtonpost.com/national-secur…

Basically those who argue that Russia is a great power make this point. Needless to say I dont see Russia as a great power. Its a mid-ranking, deeply flawed power with nuclear weapons. You might have seen this.

As such I definitely believe that the Ukrainians, if properly supported, can drive the Russians back. Indeed the trajectory of the battle (and the constant dialling back of Russian goals) is part of a trend since day 1 of the Ukrainians gaining strength.

What we see is Russia getting increasingly weaker and relying on older systems. There tanks, APCs, missiles, etc, are all degrading as they try to make up losses/wastage by bringing older systems into operation.


Civilian Death Toll Rises as Russians Rely on Older WeaponsThe battle for the eastern city of Lysychansk reaches a pivotal point. While Russia continues to make gains in the east, Ukraine tries to take back lost territory in the south.https://www.nytimes.com/live/2022/0...rease-in-the-second-half-of-june-ukraine-says

Even their soldiers are getting older. As Putin is terrified of bringing the realities of war to his people. The Duma just passed a bill raising the age for military service to 65! This is Volksturm WWII levels of desperation.


Russian Duma Approves Bill Raising Age Limit For Military Personnel To 65Russian parliament's lower chamber, the State Duma, has approved a bill that would raise the upper age limit for military personnel serving in the Russian Army on a contractual basis.https://www.rferl.org/a/russia-raises-military-age/31867388.html

btw--applying WWII analogies on Soviet performance to Russia today dont work The USSR was able to increase production and raise millions of new troops, Russia today cant produce nearly enough modern equipment to cover its losses and is terrified to conscript society.

Otoh, Ukrainian strategy seems coherent. Continue attriting Russian forces until an attempt to push them back can be made. 'when the time is right' kyivindependent.com/national/as-uk…



As Ukraine withdraws from Sievierodonetsk, Battle of Donbas enters next phaseUkrainian T-64 tank drives along a dirt road in the war zone of Donbas on June 21, 2022 (Anatoliy Stepanov)In the Battle of Donbas, Ukraine’s military has made a painful yet long-anticipated decision …https://kyivindependent.com/nationa...erodonetsk-battle-of-donbas-enters-next-phase

Now Ive made it clear that I think this is eminently possible, in this conversation with @EliotACohenfor instance.

Also, the intellectual trajectory of the war shows the Ukrainians adapting and improving and the Russian not. Snake Island one example. The counterrattacks near Kherson another. Smart, low casualty moves, getting closer and closer to a major objective.

So that is why, imho, the Battle of the Donbas, indeed the war as a whole, even with halting Russian advances in the Donbas, has the strong potential to transform in Ukraine's direction going forward. The Ukrainian population sense this too.

• • •

I love it when these articles always start with "Russia attempted to conquer Ukraine in 6 days - or take a large chunk"
IMO there was clearly an attempt by Putin to overthrow the Ukraine government - hence the non-action of his forward formations at Hostomel airport and the Kiev surrounding areas for almost 2 weeks) Likely the same approach as towards Kherson (that actually worked out)

In April I had drawn a simmilar map showing "possible" pincer-thrust moves by The Russian forces, but clearly stated that IMO the Russians do not posses the manpower for such tactical moves - but will opt for the "slow-motion-steamroller" advance. aka small encirclement 3.

Anyone in NATO HQ. and Ukraine HQ, was aware that Russia would need around 800,000 to a million men in order to roll over/conquer Ukraine in a period of 2-3 month. And everyone at those HQ's is aware that the combined strength of RF and DLNR forces never exceeded 250,000 men - until today.

Ukraine's military strength on paper is around 200,000 ground troops in it's actual armed forces - with another 100,000 having been added on via conscription and around 300,000 militia/paramilitary men spread throughout the country, including around 12,000 armored vehicles and 2,500 tanks.

Ukraine is anything but a "little David" - they are absolutley on par with the Russian forces deployed in Ukraine - only in fighter/strike fighter aircraft, tanks and artillery, Russia's forces in Ukraine are superior. However tanks and armoured vehicles on both sides are extremely vulnerable - due to no effective airstrike capability on both sides. And it's mostly urban warfare (rendering tanks and APC's mostly useless) plus Ukraine had 7 years to build and reinforce it's defensive positions - and yet it is so far Russia, that is gaining significant territory since May.

It doesn't matter what this "comedy actor" in Kiev in his pseudo Che Guevara look is endlessly propagandizing around. (but he is very good in that - I will give him that. Same goes for Lavrov Sergey Viktorovich - also just a propagandist par excellence.

A simple look onto a situational map will tell anyone were the "progress" is taking place and on who's side, since May.

 

[blackjack]

They took lots of lands back, I marked in green:

I have no problems providing dates or sources. thats not lots here you can see information on who they have shelled as well with videos and pictures of the regions

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Day of news on live map - July, 03 2022 - Ukraine Interactive map - Ukraine Latest news on live map - liveuamap.com

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1) NATO moved more towards east gaining two strong countries on Russia border.
2) The Ukrainian army became much stronger, Russian army - weaker.
3) Ukraine became more anti Russian than ever.

Results: cant even provide a source while a ukrainian military map keeps going red and red.

"A day without losing territory is a day wasted " - Comedy king zelensky

or have headlines that say Game changing western weapons changes the game by making Ukranian troops advance in reverse towards kiev.

But as of now wake me up when there will be more reports on ukraine territorial grabs. right now of course its nothing but Russians gaining territory and I am hearing that they are immediately still pushing the momentum forward.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1543615189244907522

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1543752409276719106