Live Conflict Ukraine-Russia War

[Nilgiri]

these wont survive main battle tank contact.
i never liked the idea of a light battle tank except for the mountainous region.

They are not designed for main battle tank engagement.

Bradleys have a key similar role in US force structure (especially if you study the differences in division make up of MECH INF) for more persistent scout and reconnaissance for optimal force engagement.

NATO and Ukraine are aligning evermore in doctrine as the feedback comes from frontline as to what hurts Russian forces the most pound for pound.

A lot more (in hindsight w.r.t Ukraine and West) should have been done regarding this from 2014 onwards, but learning and applying on the hoof is better than nothing.

 

[Nilgiri]

From the "general svr" telegram account (translated):

Dear subscribers and guests of the channel! Yesterday, #Russian President Vladimir #Putin held a meeting via video call with representatives of the leadership of the security and military blocs. There were several topics on the agenda. Mobilization was the central one.


Representatives of the leadership of the military bloc reported that they were ready to carry out a full range of mobilization measures within the framework of both general and partial mobilization.


After listening to the report of the representative of the Defense Ministry, #Putin confirmed his intention to call up about two million people during 2023 and asked the speaker whether everything was ready to complete the task in full and on time.

The representative of the Defense Ministry replied in the affirmative. Then, they turned to the issue of supplying the mobilized with the "essentials". #Putin was assured that the newly called-up would be provided with the "necessary minimum" of equipment and weapons.


Then, they moved on to discussing the topic of closing borders in anticipation of the next stage of mobilization. #FSB Director Alexander Bortnikov reported on full readiness for "closing the borders" in any format.


He also drew the President’s attention to the fact that today, more than eight million citizens are already banned from leaving #Russia. Bortnikov presented an analytical note stating that at least half (about four million people) are...


men of military age who served in the army and navy and have military specialties. The director of the #FSB noted a large number of "alimony debtors" among those who were forbidden to travel abroad and suggested that this category of citizens be called upon to mobilize.


They say that if the next stage of mobilization, as planned, at least at first, will take place without an official announcement and will be of a hidden nature, then panic can be avoided, and the borders can remain open.


In addition, the problem will be solved for abandoned wives and children who are waiting for alimony from ex-spouses and fathers. All in all, the President reacted positively to this proposal and ordered to work it out with representatives of the Ministry of Defense.


The issue of introducing martial law was discussed this time superficially. The President only confirmed the plans and asked about preparations for the implementation of such a decision.


Having received an answer that preparations were underway and everything would be ready by the second decade of February, he nodded with satisfaction.

After the meeting, the President continued talking with the Security Council Secretary, Patrushev.

They spoke for about half an hour.

#Putin is not embarrassed by the growing losses at the front. He is ready for a big mobilization and is ready to put hundreds of thousands more human lives on the executioner's block of his crazy ideas.

 

[Afif]

They are not designed for main battle tank engagement.

Bradleys have a key similar role in US force structure (especially if you study the differences in division make up of MECH INF) for more persistent scout and reconnaissance for optimal force engagement.

I did studied both CAB's and cavalry squadron's technical publications. So i understand what are you talking about.
however, compared to M2 and M3 Bradleys it is too slow and cannot have dismounted scouts.
both i think, are significant drawbacks.
and also when it comes to armored reconnaissance, nowadays US ABCT cavalry squadrons has one armored company of M1 alongside with its m3 bradleys.
and thats because when doing armored reconnaissance it is not very rare to get in contact with hostile MBT. This is a lesson learned by US army, thus they added an armored company with ABCT reconnaissance squadrons.

my point is, with AMX 10 RC you will need heavy armored support and dismounted scouts ( carried in some other vehicles ) anyway if you want to do scout and reconnaissance with it, as well as security screening. on top of that it is considerably slow compared to tracked vehicles.

basically, it will be a mess if you want to follow US ABCT cavalry squadron's tactics with AMX 10.

I think it will be employed in more of a French way than US doctrine.
And both doctrines are quite distinctly different even though both can be labeled as western.

It would be much better for Ukraine if western countries can send some tracked IFVs.

 

[Nilgiri]

I did studied both CAB's and cavalry squadron's technical publications. So i understand what are you talking about.
however, compared to M2 and M3 Bradleys it is too slow and cannot have dismounted scouts.
both i think, are significant drawbacks.
and also when it comes to armored reconnaissance, nowadays US ABCT cavalry squadrons has one armored company of M1 alongside with its m3 bradleys.
and that is because when doing armored reconnaissance it is not very rare to get in contact with hostile MBT. and that is a lesson learned by US army, thus they added an armored company with ABCT reconnaissance squadrons.

my point is, with AMX 10 RC you will need heavy armored support and dismounted scouts ( carried in some other vehicles ) anyway if you want to do scout and reconnaissance with it, as well as security screening. on top of that it is considerably slow compared to tracked vehicles.

basically, it will be a mess if you want to follow us cavalry squadron's tactics with AMX 10.

I think it will be employed in more of a French way than US doctrine.
And both doctrines are quite distinctly different even though both can be labeled as western.

It would be much better for Ukraine if western countries can send some tracked IFVs.

If you feel you have analysed it or know about it more than the relevant Ukrainians and NATO folks have long done already... okay!

I'll just disagree with that.

This is not a context-transparent war where hindsight can be applied for the layman's comfort as to what specific sectors saw, see and will see.

Nor is it one where Ukraine has some large surplus of assets it can be picky w.r.t procurement.

Literally everything has a niche useful role that they can get their hands on from western allies who have the only steady source of higher quality gear than the Russians can bring to bear.

There are sustained deficits in Ukraine force structure that have spaces to backfill. Light tanks with high quality thermal sights definitely will fill some number of them.

Bradleys as well for a reason:

Biden says Bradley Fighting Vehicles are on the table for Ukraine

U.S. President Joe Biden on Wednesday said that sending Bradley Fighting Vehicles to Ukraine was being considered to help the that country fight Russia's invasion.

www.reuters.com

 

[Relic]

President Biden confirmed today that Bradley Fighting Vehicles are now on the table for Ukraine Usually, conformation like that leads to a delivery conformation shortly thereafter.

Biden says Bradley Fighting Vehicles are on the table for Ukraine

U.S. President Joe Biden on Wednesday said that sending Bradley Fighting Vehicles to Ukraine was being considered to help the that country fight Russia's invasion.

www.reuters.com

I suspect that the Americans will likely send Bradley M2s, given that they have more than 5000 of them in their inventory and are in the process of phasing out their legacy M2s in the coming years. They have purchased 700 M2A4's to replace them as an initial replacement. The Bradleys will fit nicely into the Ukrainian war inventory, serving as a nice upgrade to Ukraine's BMP-1 and BMP-2 IFVs. I'd like to see the Americans donate roughly 500 Bradley's over the course of 2023. That's less than 10% of the total Bradley force (6200+ M2 and M3 variants), and enough to outfit 3 armoured brigades, with extras.

2023 wish list of SIGNIFICANT deliveries to Ukraine (some previously announced)

100 Leopard 2 (A4/A5/A6) Tanks
200 T-72 tanks (Facilitated by the Czechs, USA and The Netherlands, through a multinational effort)
500 M2 Bradley IFVs
100 FNSS ACV-15
100 Marder IFVs
500 HMMWVs (TOW / .50 Cal variant)
250 M1117 APCs (announced in 2022)
200 BMC Kirpi APCs (announced in 2022)
100 VAB APCs
100 Bushmaster APCs
60 AHS Krab 155mm Self Propelled Howitzers (purchased in 2022)
12 CAESAR 155mm Self Propelled Howitzers (initially intended for Denmark)
25 Panzerhaubitze 2000 155mm Self Propelled Howitzers (25/100 purchased in 2022)
25 M109A6 155mm Self Propelled Howitzers
16 Zuzana-2 155mm Self Propelled Howitzers (purchased in 2022)
100 Heavy Mortar Systems (120mm/82mm/60mm)
50 BM21 GRAD
12 MLRS (M270/HIMARS/TLRG-230)
30 Mig-29 Fighter Jets (Slovakia and Poland have been ready to hand these over)
24 F-16 Fighter Jets
24 MI-8/17/24 Helicopters
20 MQ-9 Reaper UAVs
50 Gepard Self Propelled Anti-Aircraft Systems
2 SAMP/T Air Defense Batteries (1 already announced from Italy / France)
4 NASAMS Air Defense Batteries (2/6 purchased by USA have already been delivered)
4 Iris-T Air Defense Batteries (1/4 purchased by Germany has already been delivered)
3 MIM 104 Patriot Air Defense Batteries
25 Counter Battery RADARS (multi variant)
500-1000 Drones with advanced optics

Essentially, enough heavy equipment, air capability and air defense systems to make Russia's campaign a living hell for their mobilization effort. Russia's army has already taken a significant beating. The above would ensure that it would be a long time until they posed any serious thread to the West moving forward. I'd like to see us (The West) train and fully arm 20-30 new Ukrainian Brigades in 2023, as well as train up a couple hundred Ukrainian pilots across NATO countries.

 

[Ryder]

Should have been sent ages ago.

Usa was suppose to defend Ukraine due to the agreement of Ukraine giving up nukes.

 

[Relic]

Should have been sent ages ago.

Usa was suppose to defend Ukraine due to the agreement of Ukraine giving up nukes.

The sad reality is that the West is simply offloading most of its old equipment, bleeding Russia out, as long as Ukraine is willing and able to bleed with them. The collective West will, in turn, get all the new military toys they want, after sending a lot of stored inventory to Ukraine.

It will probably take two decades for the Russian army to truly rebuild itself and the The West will have accomplished that reality (through Ukraine) without putting any Western boots on the ground, or losing any of its most valuable weapons of war.

 

[Ryder]

The sad reality is that the West is simply offloading most of its old equipment, bleeding Russia out, as long as Ukraine is willing and able to bleed with them. The collective West will, in turn, get all the new military toys they want, after sending a lot of stored inventory to Ukraine.

It will probably take two decades for the Russian army to truly rebuild itself and the The West will have accomplished that reality (through Ukraine) without putting any Western boots on the ground, or losing any of its most valuable weapons of war.

I can see why Russians believe they are having war with nato.

They are not far off.

Still the war is between Ukraine and Russia.

Crazy to think how Russia got itself into a trap where its bleeding without any Nato troops being deployed.

Then again the Russians want the black sea in the long term they were going to lose it hence why they had to act sooner than later.

Losing Crimea was the biggest blunder of Nato.

 

[Relic]

I can see why Russians believe they are having war with nato.

They are not far off.

Still the war is between Ukraine and Russia.

Crazy to think how Russia got itself into a trap where its bleeding without any Nato troops being deployed.

Then again the Russians want the black sea in the long term they were going to lose it hence why they had to act sooner than later.

Losing Crimea was the biggest blunder of Nato.

The reality is that Russians have absolutely no chance of winning a war against NATO in conventional fashion. It's only their nuclear capability that deserves respect. The majority of their military is in shambles compared to their top adversaries (as the Ukrainians have time and time again). Many of Russia's best soldiers have already been KIA / WIA, 10 months into this conflict.

Forget adding a player like the United States, Turkey or Britain to this conflict... Imagine if just Poland decided they were going to help out their Ukrainian neighbour's and fully commit to the defensive operation. The Russians would be utterly hopeless in conventional combat vs a Poland / Ukraine alliance that was being supplied by the West.

If the United States were to become involved in a serious manner, it would be OVER very quickly. I actually think the Russian military would likely mutiny and leave Ukraine in thenface of what the Americans are capable of. I don't think it would look that dissimilar to what the Americans did to the Iraqis... Only with newer and better technology.

 

[Ryder]

The reality is that Russians have absolutely no chance of winning a war against NATO in conventional fashion. It's only their nuclear capability that deserves respect. The majority of their military is in shambles compared to their top adversaries (as the Ukrainians have time and time again). Many of Russia's best soldiers have already been KIA / WIA, 10 months into this conflict.

Forget adding a player like the United States, Turkey or Britain to this conflict... Imagine if just Poland decided they were going to help out their Ukrainian neighbour's and fully commit to the defensive operation. The Russians would be utterly hopeless in conventional combat vs a Poland / Ukraine alliance that was being supplied by the West.

If the United States were to become involved in a serious manner, it would be OVER very quickly. I actually think the Russian military would likely mutiny and leave Ukraine in thenface of what the Americans are capable of. I don't think it would look that dissimilar to what the Americans did to the Iraqis... Only with newer and better technology.

To make matters worse.

Serbia bet on the wrong horse. The Serbs always believed Russia was strong enough to back them.

Now most of their neighbours have joined Nato or in the process or the intention.

Russians left the Serbs dry in 1999.

Serbia in the long term will be one of the biggest losers. With a Weakened Russia nobody will have their back I doubt China is a good substitute for them despite the relations.

 

[UkroTurk]

M2 Bradleys are arriving in Kherson very soon. Video in Poland

BI - пидор

You can view and join @britishintelligence right away.

t.me

 

[UkroTurk]

Its definitely more of a tank compared to Bradley (which some also referred to as a tank heh).

The thermal sights on it are very good and will be very useful for Ukraine forces capability.

Will be interesting to see how many France provides.

They are very tactical and fast .
You can create a tactical strike group with AMX like wolf pack. Moving from a city to the different front just in 2-3 hours .

Also Russian tanks' armours are junk AMX could waste them.

 

[Mailman]

I can see why Russians believe they are having war with nato.

They are not far off.

Still the war is between Ukraine and Russia.

Crazy to think how Russia got itself into a trap where its bleeding without any Nato troops being deployed.

Then again the Russians want the black sea in the long term they were going to lose it hence why they had to act sooner than later.

Losing Crimea was the biggest blunder of Nato.

Ukrainians are in deep sh...t, but considering the circumstances- they had the best know how and close view regarding emerging rashism. Who else knows better each other than members of the same family, 80 years after holodomor and being older, more experienced and advanced family member? What a vast pool of military equipment U. inherited from USSR! U. was meanwhile fourth biggest arms dealer in the world, you know. And what was done during 30 years of independance to get into NATO or create their own military alliances- working ones, I mean? No, only NATO has now the responsibility to save the nation, put their members under the threat and give Russia badly needed additional justification to vage next war. You know, it is not nice thing to do, dear Ukrainians.
Please do not understand me wrong. Ukraine needs to be supported in any way possible because it is just not human to behave like state minded Russians do these days. Russians, you are animals, you know that? You need to be kept within iron cage so you will not became danger to others. Kill each other as much you want, it will make it easier for the rest of the civilised world to build the future.
Most cumbersome thing is to imagine some kind of hidden agenda behind all of this. Well, yes, everybody wants to get more power and increase the influence and get richer and blaa blaa blaa. Who does not? The secret of democratic societies is not the conspiracy theories they try to put in practice rather than balanced power to reflect society needs flexibly. This means per each overly eager wannabe world rulers plotting group there is another group who wants exactly the opposite. All potential violence within the society is grounded via such microlevel interaction and if any interest group is big enough, it will have representative or more in the parilament in order to mitigate these interests.
What I want to say is if there is a will, anyone can spot some interest groups reflecting their worst fears well enough. Still it is far from truth, only small fraction of it. So it is dangerous for oneself to get overly obsessed with it, as we can witness in case of mr. Putin.
Both U. and R. has to learn this in a hard way. U. has to learn what it means to be a properly functioning country and a great nation, perhaps R. is doing them a favor by uniting them so effectively. You know, not stealing behind each other their common goods and stuff like that. Selling critical military equipment badly needed to protect themselves against potential agression from East, for example. Russia, well... Russia has to develop for 200 hundred more years. They are crawling out from slavery period and successfully restored neo-feudalism after hopeless attempt to jump directly into communism, ignoring so some normal societal development stages. Well, after many million useless deaths it did not worked out, try now to learn lessons how to respect general norms and become responsible member of the world society. These norms are invented to protect Russian interest as well, despite whatever Russians want to believe instead.

 

[tsss2010]

ПРОШУ ХОЧА Б ЗРОБИТИ РЕПОСТ.
Друзі, вперше з 24 лютого пишу такого роду пост...та і взагалі з початку 2014 року.
Починаю збір коштів на авто і повербанки для 30-ої окремої механізованої бригади імені князя Костянтина Острозького (30 ОМБр), де служить і боронить Україну друг і колишній колега Женя Герасименко https://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=100012195107153 , з яким пропрацювали майже 7 років. І не просто боронить, а дає реально "прочуханів" російській армії. Напрямок у них зараз найгарячіший. Є гостра потреба в позашляховику і повербанках.
Буду вдячний за репост.
Ціль - 290 000 грн
Посилання на банку Монобанк
https://send.monobank.ua/jar/3eXC8gprP6
Номер картки банки
5375411203560698
Номер картки Моно
4441114457930400
UA123220010000026207329761895
Номер картки ПриватБанк
4149439022291227
Цимбал Сергій Сергійович
PayPal - [email protected]
В коментарях розміщу окремо посилання та номери карток. Дякую. Все буде Україна. Перемога буде за нами.
Фотозвіт буде і в Києві, і вже безпосередньо на передовій.

We are raising money for an SUV and power banks for 30 separate mechanized brigade, which is now fighting in the east of Ukraine in the Bakhmut region. The need is urgent. You can go to my personal Facebook page and see that I am a real person and I am raising money to buy a car for my friend who serves in this brigade.
https://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=100008676224396
Requisites for help:
https://send.monobank.ua/jar/3eXC8gprP6
Monobank
UA123220010000026207329761895
PayPal - [email protected]
Beneficiary (Бенефіціар)
IBAN: UA103220010000026206314895454
Account No: 26206314895454
Receiver: TSYMBAL SERHII, 83011, Ukraine, reg. Donetska, c. Donetsk, st. Profinternu, build. 11, fl. 2
Account with Institution (Банк Бенефіціара)
Bank: JSC UNIVERSAL BANK
City: KYIV, UKRAINE
Swift code: UNJSUAUKXXX
Intermediary (Банк посередник)
Bank: RAIFFEISEN BANK INTERNATIONAL AG
City: VIENNA, AUSTRIA
Account number: 70-55.092.373
Swift code: RZBAATWWXXX

 

[Ryder]

Ukrainians are in deep sh...t, but considering the circumstances- they had the best know how and close view regarding emerging rashism. Who else knows better each other than members of the same family, 80 years after holodomor and being older, more experienced and advanced one? What a vast pool of military equipment U. inherited from USSR! U. was meanwhile fourth biggest arms dealer in the world, you know. And what was done during 30 years of independance to get into NATO or create their own military alliances- working ones, I mean. No, only NATO has the responsibility to save the nation and put himself under the threat and give Russia badly needed additional justification to vage the war. You know, it is not nice thing to do, dear Ukrainians.
Please do not understand me wrong. Ukraine needs to be supported in any way possible because it is just not human to behave like state minded Russians do these days. Russians, you are animals, you know that? You need to be kept within iron cage so you will not became danger to others. Kill each other as much you want, easier for the rest of the civilised world to build the future. I do not care, muslims or christians, budists or shintoists- we share the same planet and most likely the same god. According to my subjective opinion humans are just too undevelped to recognize the Truth in its full glory, including humble myself. We are limited creatures and recognizing these limits does not hurt.
Most cumbersome thing is to imagine some kind of hidden agenda behind all of this. Well, yes, everybody wants to get more power and increase the influence and get richer and blaa blaa blaa. Who does not? The secret of democratic societies is not the conspiracy theories they put in practice rather than balanced power to reflect society needs flexibly. This means per each overly eager wannabe world rulers plotting group there is another group who wants exactly the opposite. All potential violence within the society is grounded via such microlevel interaction and if any interest group is big enough, it will have representative or many of them in the parilament in order to mitigate these interests.
What I want to say is if there is a will, anyone can spot some interest groups reflecting their worst fears well enough. Still it is far from truth, only small fraction of it. So it is dangerous for oneself to get overly obsessed with it, as we can witness in case of mr. Putin.
Both U. and R. has to learn this in a hard way. U. has to lear what it means to be a properly functioning country and a great nation, perhaps R. is doing them a favor by uniting them so effectively. Russia, well... Russia has to develop for 200 hundred more years. They are crawling out from slavery period and successfully restored neo-feudalism after hopeless attempt to jump directly into communism, ignoring so some normal societal development stages. Well, after many million useless deaths it did not worked out, try now to learn lessons how to respect general norms and become responsible member of the world society. These norms are invented to protect Russian interest as well, despite whatever Russians want to believe instead.

In the past I actually bad mouthed Ukrainians for giving up Crimea without a fight in 2014.

I wasnt the only one.

Many have been surprised the way Ukraine has fought.

For me their biggest triumph is defeating the VDV in Hostomel and repelling the siege of Kiev.

This was done before the NATO weapon deliveries even came in.

Ukrainians have an armed force that allows them to go on the offensive which is pretty impressive.

Not only are they using Nato weapons but these weapons are already well integrated into Ukraine having a nato standard armed force coupled with combat experience.

Even if came at a huge cost for Ukraine which is really sad itself. Bakmut has been completely destroyed.

Its crazy to think how the war itself will be 1 year old with no end in sight.

 

[Ryder]

By this rate as much I love the Stalker series I could careless if this game got cancelled.

Their lives are more important than a videogame.

Even if development got split between teams many of the developers have also joined the army.

 

[Afif]

If you feel you have analysed it or know about it more than the relevant Ukrainians and NATO folks have long done already... okay!

I never said that! what I am only trying to say is, AMX 10 RC cannot fulfill M3 bradley's specific role ( in US armored reconnaissance doctrine ) as you suggested previously.

This is not a context-transparent war where hindsight can be applied for the layman's comfort as to what specific sectors saw, see and will see.

Nor is it one where Ukraine has some large surplus of assets it can be picky w.r.t procurement.

Literally everything has a niche useful role that they can get their hands on from western allies who have the only steady source of higher quality gear than the Russians can bring to bear.

There are sustained deficits in Ukraine force structure that have spaces to backfill. Light tanks with high quality thermal sights definitely will fill some number of them.

i completely agree.

 

[Gary]

AMX-10 is still good for some concrete/fortification busting. Anything that shoot is welcome and Ukraine is in no position to pick what weapons they have.

 

[Relic]

M2 Bradleys are arriving in Kherson very soon. Video in Poland

BI - пидор

You can view and join @britishintelligence right away.

t.me

That video could be of Bradley's being pre-positioned in Poland for distribution to the Ukrainians, but it also very well could be the armored vehicles belonging to the airborne regiments / divisions currently rotating in and out of Poland. Namely the 101st and 82nd.

 

[Kathirz]

Putin orders ceasefire in Ukraine over Orthodox Christmas - Kremlin

Russian President Vladimir Putin on Thursday ordered a 36-hour ceasefire in Ukraine over Orthodox Christmas, the first major truce of the more than 10-month long war that has killed tens of thousands and devastated swathes of Ukraine.

www.reuters.com

Guessing what could happen if Ukraine accepts it:

-RU blows a pair of apartments in Donets/Luhansk and blames UKR for it.
-Orders another mobilization.