Live Conflict Ukraine-Russia War

[blackjack]

Would you include the engine dev failure too ?

https://x.com/AndreiBtvt/status/1701210132690919431?s=20

that as well with the current 132 T-14s,

the serial production will resume in the 1st quarter of 2024 is what I got from the video.

https://translated.turbopages.org/p...dioelektronnoi-zashchity-ot-fpv-dronov-triton

besides the future plans of 152mm cannons I heard before 30mm antiaircraft cannons were suggested as well.
If so there should be 30mm detonation rounds than the 23mm detonation rounds showcased at the army forum to have the Armata as a super effective solution against enemy drone swarms( besides effectively killing groups of infantry men) with the assistance of super precision firecontrol radar in the range of 26ghz-40ghz(I hope for future planed PICs than MMICs for these radars) tracking combined with high precision infrared detection all sensor fused with the T-14 computer for the best target accuracy.

But of course before sending 100s of T-14s ever into Ukraine they need to backed by the newest and best produced howitzers, MLRS and demining vehicles available. New Tornadoes are produced in sufficient numbers and still production is being set, Iskanders produced by several fold, krasnopol ammunition to be produce 25 times the amount, Ka-52Ms being produced besides the Ka-52s for new solutions based on war, 2 koalition-svs were produced but are now being produced some months back because of passing tests this, Hermes is reported to still undergo tests this year, besides robotic tanks for demining they also made new solutions for demining vehicles that would use microwave radiation to clear out mines 100 meters in front of them.

Foot is still on the gas than breaks, I am more worried about Trump being re-elected to force a ceasefire than Russia making any significant territorial grab where the deadline is like November 2024. For some reason I don't have optimism of Biden rewinning election.

 

[blackjack]

It must be produced from very cheap material and leaving a lot of quality issues to be desired due to the need for speedy production. They are the worst performing combat chopper in Ukraine. I don'tunderstand why Russia wants more of these.. Instead the Mi-35 and derivatives or the Mi-28 even would've been a better choice to push for more production.
The Ka-52 also burn to a crisp making some wonder what they're actually made of.

I dont think the production is speedy if the Ka-52M was planned for prodcition a while back and they are building new assembly lines for the Ka-52 like they are doing with the T-14s for 2024.
I think I have only seen a few or so Ka-52s get destroyed, but I do get a shitload of new footage of Ka-52s destroying Ukrainian armored vehicles. I dont think they used the M versions yet? Its even more hard to discriminate what T90s awhile back that got destroyed or captured if they were the T-90As, Tagils or breakthrough variants, but then again there were not a lot of reports I have found of T-90s destroyed or captures according to footage(and some mistaken for T-72s) and they are pumping out several hundred of these by the end of this year and the production line afterwards doesn't stop.

 

[Gary]

Some footage of the increasingly accurate performance of UMPK kit fitted FAB 500M62

https://x.com/AndreiBtvt/status/1702046944586092817?s=20

 

[Tornadoss]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1702732753689575897

This is sick and really depressing, nobody stops to check or help that person.

 

[Ecderha]

This is sick and really depressing, nobody stops to check or help that person.

This is the "ruZZian world."
No one stops.
No one does anything.
They see a civilian run down by a military truck and everyone literally just goes on with their day.
They know that that the ruZZian truck driver is going to get away.
If any males complain, they'll likely be threatened with mobilization (if any are even left).
Any you'll see the same types of videos in ruZZZia itself.
The system is Rotten to the Core.

 

[blackjack]

The US Army War College just published a new paper on key lessons from the Ukraine War. There are plenty of users here that like to reference the Iraq and Afghanistan war as some grandiose achievement as superiority over Russia's operation in Ukraine in terms of comparison. Lets see what the US Army War College has said. https://press.armywarcollege.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=3240&context=parameters I will bold the important parts.

Command and Control Twenty years of counterinsurgency and counterterrorism operations in the Middle East, largely enabled by air, signals, and electromagnetic dominance, generated chains of command reliant on perfect, uncontested communication lines and an extraordinary and accurate common operating picture of the battlefield broadcast in real time to co-located staff in large Joint Operations Centers. The Russia-Ukraine War makes it clear that the electromagnetic signature emitted from the command posts of the past 20 years cannot survive against the pace and precision of an adversary who possesses sensor-based technologies, electronic warfare, and unmanned aerial systems or has access to satellite imagery; this includes nearly every state or nonstate actor the United States might find itself fighting in the near future. The Army must focus on developing command-and-control systems and mobile command posts that enable continuous movement, allow distributed collaboration, and synchronize across all warfighting functions to minimize electronic signature. Ukrainian battalion command posts reportedly consist of seven soldiers who dig in and jump twice daily; while that standard will be hard for the US Army to achieve, it points in a very different direction than the one we have been following for two decades of hardened command posts.

Casualties, Replacements, and Reconstitutions The Russia-Ukraine War is exposing significant vulnerabilities in the Army’s strategic personnel depth and ability to withstand and replace casualties.11 Army theater medical planners may anticipate a sustained rate of roughly 3,600 casualties per day, ranging from those killed in action to those wounded in action or suffering disease or other non-battle injuries.12 With a 25 percent predicted replacement rate, the personnel system will require 800 new personnel each day. For context, the United States sustained about 50,000 casualties in two decades of fighting in Iraq and Afghanistan. In large-scale combat operations, the United States could experience that same number of casualties in two weeks.1

In addition to the disciplined disobedience required to execute effective mission command, the US Army is facing a dire combination of a recruiting shortfall and a shrinking Individual Ready Reserve. This recruiting shortfall, nearly 50 percent in the combat arms career management fields, is a longitudinal problem. Every infantry and armor soldier we do not recruit today is a strategic mobilization asset we will not have in 2031.14 The Individual Ready Reserve, which stood at 700,000 in 1973 and 450,000 in 1994, now stands at 76,000.15 These numbers cannot fill the existing gaps in the active force, let alone any casualty replacement or expansion during a large-scale combat operation. The implication is that the 1970s concept of an all-volunteer force has outlived its shelf life and does not align with the current operating environment. The technological revolution described below suggests this force has reached obsolescence. Large-scale combat operations troop requirements may well require a reconceptualization of the 1970s and 1980s volunteer force and a move toward partial conscription.1

Another important detail is the will to fight, If a NATO army was to get involved how many would want to fight a war where the mortality rate chance far succeeds any operation that was conducted in the middle east? I know I didnt add the opinions of airforce or Navy(I know there is means of dealing with those branches as well based on what they have not used yet in this war) but this is the assessment they gave as their lessons from the war.

 

[Saithan]

Greece Is Making a Killing Selling Ships to Russia

The world’s largest ship-owning nation is profiting from the sale of aging vessels, while enabling Moscow’s sanctions evasion.

foreignpolicy.com

 

[Ecderha]

ruZZian "Samum" navy ship, which was attacked by an experimental drone of the SBU "Sea Baby" in the Black Sea 2 days ago is towed to port.

She's way down at the stern, machinery spaces do NOT like Salt water.
If that is a partially flooded engine room it will be out of action for months if not forever.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1702955474969084089

 

[Ecderha]

Woman’s corpse with Signs of Violent death.
3 hours there, no reaction from anyone.
The harsh reality of life under ruZZian occupation.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1702972883205566631

 

[Gary]

The US Army War College just published a new paper on key lessons from the Ukraine War. There are plenty of users here that like to reference the Iraq and Afghanistan war as some grandiose achievement as superiority over Russia's operation in Ukraine in terms of comparison. Lets see what the US Army War College has said. https://press.armywarcollege.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=3240&context=parameters I will bold the important parts.

Command and Control Twenty years of counterinsurgency and counterterrorism operations in the Middle East, largely enabled by air, signals, and electromagnetic dominance, generated chains of command reliant on perfect, uncontested communication lines and an extraordinary and accurate common operating picture of the battlefield broadcast in real time to co-located staff in large Joint Operations Centers. The Russia-Ukraine War makes it clear that the electromagnetic signature emitted from the command posts of the past 20 years cannot survive against the pace and precision of an adversary who possesses sensor-based technologies, electronic warfare, and unmanned aerial systems or has access to satellite imagery; this includes nearly every state or nonstate actor the United States might find itself fighting in the near future. The Army must focus on developing command-and-control systems and mobile command posts that enable continuous movement, allow distributed collaboration, and synchronize across all warfighting functions to minimize electronic signature. Ukrainian battalion command posts reportedly consist of seven soldiers who dig in and jump twice daily; while that standard will be hard for the US Army to achieve, it points in a very different direction than the one we have been following for two decades of hardened command posts.

Casualties, Replacements, and Reconstitutions The Russia-Ukraine War is exposing significant vulnerabilities in the Army’s strategic personnel depth and ability to withstand and replace casualties.11 Army theater medical planners may anticipate a sustained rate of roughly 3,600 casualties per day, ranging from those killed in action to those wounded in action or suffering disease or other non-battle injuries.12 With a 25 percent predicted replacement rate, the personnel system will require 800 new personnel each day. For context, the United States sustained about 50,000 casualties in two decades of fighting in Iraq and Afghanistan. In large-scale combat operations, the United States could experience that same number of casualties in two weeks.1

In addition to the disciplined disobedience required to execute effective mission command, the US Army is facing a dire combination of a recruiting shortfall and a shrinking Individual Ready Reserve. This recruiting shortfall, nearly 50 percent in the combat arms career management fields, is a longitudinal problem. Every infantry and armor soldier we do not recruit today is a strategic mobilization asset we will not have in 2031.14 The Individual Ready Reserve, which stood at 700,000 in 1973 and 450,000 in 1994, now stands at 76,000.15 These numbers cannot fill the existing gaps in the active force, let alone any casualty replacement or expansion during a large-scale combat operation. The implication is that the 1970s concept of an all-volunteer force has outlived its shelf life and does not align with the current operating environment. The technological revolution described below suggests this force has reached obsolescence. Large-scale combat operations troop requirements may well require a reconceptualization of the 1970s and 1980s volunteer force and a move toward partial conscription.1

Another important detail is the will to fight, If a NATO army was to get involved how many would want to fight a war where the mortality rate chance far succeeds any operation that was conducted in the middle east? I know I didnt add the opinions of airforce or Navy(I know there is means of dealing with those branches as well based on what they have not used yet in this war) but this is the assessment they gave as their lessons from the war.

For the U.S. they still have time until 2031 to drive up recruitment, don't know about European countries like Germany whose recruitment rates are pathetic. But even then, due to constant Russian losses in the field, the gravity of power will stay with NATO even if they did nothing to rectify their manpower problem.

Also in Wartime, the U.S. will once more re-activate conscription as they did in Viet Nam or in WW2 assuming conflicts blow out of control. The US is the world's 2nd largest population base at 330M+ and European nations combined at 750M+, combined at around 1 Billion+ people, that is 10x the Russian population. Also unlike Russia, the U.S. population stays young due to immigration to the country, while Russia is an aging country.

It would need Russia a lot of luck that a war erupts in the Pacific forcing the U.S. to be hard-pressed to fight and sustain a 2 front war to level the power balance in Europe back to Russia's favor. But even Europe alone has a larger population and industries that in war could be turned to support the war effort, in such scenario we would even probably see Porsche back in the tank-making business.

So If I'm Russia, there's no easy way to restore the Soviet Empire past Ukraine. Ukraine could be the last and only country that Russia could hope to bring back into their sphere of influence, considering Russia's population base, industry etc.

 

[Relic]

For the U.S. they still have time until 2031 to drive up recruitment, don't know about European countries like Germany whose recruitment rates are pathetic. But even then, due to constant Russian losses in the field, the gravity of power will stay with NATO even if they did nothing to rectify their manpower problem.

Also in Wartime, the U.S. will once more re-activate conscription as they did in Viet Nam or in WW2 assuming conflicts blow out of control. The US is the world's 2nd largest population base at 330M+ and European nations combined at 750M+, combined at around 1 Billion+ people, that is 10x the Russian population. Also unlike Russia, the U.S. population stays young due to immigration to the country, while Russia is an aging country.

It would need Russia a lot of luck that a war erupts in the Pacific forcing the U.S. to be hard-pressed to fight and sustain a 2 front war to level the power balance in Europe back to Russia's favor. But even Europe alone has a larger population and industries that in war could be turned to support the war effort, in such scenario we would even probably see Porsche back in the tank-making business.

So If I'm Russia, there's no easy way to restore the Soviet Empire past Ukraine. Ukraine could be the last and only country that Russia could hope to bring back into their sphere of influence, considering Russia's population base, industry etc.

Russian expansion westward is a thing of the past, as you noted. Even if Western support fades and they "win" this war, maybe they consolidate 25%-30% of Ukraine. They've already proven that at full strength, their army does possess the ability to fight logistically taxing, multi-front war effort. They're not taking Kyiv. Hell, it would be a nightmare for them to take Kramatorsk, let alone Kharkiv or Odessa. Lviv is absolutely out of the picture.

Clearly, they won't even attempt an attack on a NATO country. That would be an absolute disaster for them. Even with only moderate U.S. support, a combined Polish, Finnish, Swedish, Baltic, Ukrainian effort on NATO's Eastern flank, would absolutely exhaust Russia's military. They would be replacing their already green military at this point, with even greener, less capable conscripts. They'd also be facing much more modern, integrated air forces, and countries with muvh better equipped armies than Ukraine had at the outbreak of the war. Not to mention, numerous Western European battlegroups are supporting the Eastern flanks and they would be no pushover either.

We've seen how much Russia has struggled to involve the VKS as a catalyst in their war effort. NATO doctrine is very opposite of that. While air supremacy over the VKS would be unrealistic in the the early stages of an Eastern NATO vs Russian war, NATO would possess the definite advantage in the skies. They also have the types of weapons systems to do immense damage to a Russian army attempting to advance. They would be much more capable than Ukraine, fighting with one arm tied behind their backs.

 

[Relic]

Everything we're hearing appears to be a setup for a joint announcement of ATACMS rockets from USA and Taurus cruise missiles from Germany . The lead up to this announcement is very similar to American agreeing to supply Abrams tanks and Germany agreeing to send Leopard 2 tanks. It's obvious that the British and French supply of Stormshadow and SCALP cruise missiles is limited, therefore, it looks like Germany and USA will step in to bolster Ukraine's long range strike capability moving forward.

Ukraine has proven capable of using the expensive cruise missiles wisely and they are inflicting significant (and expensive) damage on the Russians. This week alone they severely damaged / destroyed a Russian kilo class submarine and a Ropucha class landing ship, with a combined value of close to $1 Billion usd. That's an excellent return on investment for a couple million usd worth of missiles.

50 Taurus cruise missiles and 100 ATACMS rockets would go a long way towards inflicting even costlier damage to the Russians.

 

[Bogeyman]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1702732753689575897

Even the head of the man they ran over with the truck was severed. This brutality is truly incredible.

 

[Gary]

Surovikin in Algeria, the guy looks sick and unfit. Prolly was one of the best Russian field commanders before the purge.

 

[Gary]

On a side note, it seems that the Algerian is teaching Surovikin how to read the Quran

 

[blackjack]

For the U.S. they still have time until 2031 to drive up recruitment, don't know about European countries like Germany whose recruitment rates are pathetic. But even then, due to constant Russian losses in the field, the gravity of power will stay with NATO even if they did nothing to rectify their manpower problem.

yes russian losses happen but not the rate where one country has to throw their civilians into vans and based on another country getting 300k signing contracts in 2023. Russians do admit they are outranged in some cases like howitzers and make up that difference by mass producing krasnopol-m2 shells, but on that timescale koalition-svs will start getting mass produced with krasnopol-dm shells getting mass produced until either country by than starts making ramjet assisted shells. Also the U.S. reports of 2 decades of casualties in iraq and afghanistan results in what can happen in 2 weeks. Even with the current one million pool forces Russias has to bump that up to 1.5 million. they got 300k new contracts this year alone and even on the current war they have not even brought in the 25th combined arms army units with reservists outside of the operation zone into battle yet from last year. There are even more new army formations being made in Russia not yet in the operation zone. that will make their way to Ukraine soon as well, these sources are from 2 weeks ago

New formations of the Armed Forces of Russia. Continuation. The original was taken from a colleague altyn73 in the New Formations of the Russian Armed Forces. Continued .

The 52nd Artillery Brigade of the Airborne Troops has been formed in the Krasnodar Territory. The brigade is armed with towed 152-mm guns 2A36 "Hyacinth-B". Gun 2A36

The 17th high-capacity artillery brigade has been formed in the Leningrad Region. The brigade is armed with heavy self-propelled guns 2S7M Malka and 2S4 Tyulpan. According to the announced plans of the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation, five such brigades will be formed.

The 28th motorized rifle regiment is actively operating as part of the newly formed 18th combined arms army. According to the telegram channel TalipoV, the 28th motorized rifle regiment is part of the 70th motorized rifle division. When and where the division was formed is still unknown.

The newly formed 40th Army Corps includes the new 144th Motorized Rifle Brigade https://vesti-khasrayon.ru/adverts/...vennyim-pismom-za-aktivnoe-sotrudnichestvo-i/

In 2022-2023 The following units have been formed and are being formed:

In the Western Military District, the administration of the 3rd Army Corps has been formed and the administration of a new army corps in Karelia is being formed. The 6th motorized rifle division and the 17th heavy artillery brigade were re-formed.

In the Southern Military District - the military formations of the DPR and LPR are subordinate to the 8th Combined Arms Army as the 1st Army Corps (consisting of the 1st, 5th, 9th, 110th, 114th and 132nd motorized rifle brigades , the 14th artillery brigade and a number of separate regiments and battalions) and the 2nd army corps (consisting of the 4th, 7th, 85th, 88th and 123rd motorized rifle brigades, the 10th artillery brigade and a number of separate regiments and battalions).

The administration of the 18th Combined Arms Army was formed (on the basis of the administration of the 22nd Army Corps), the administration of the 40th Army Corps, the 47th and 70th motorized rifle divisions, the 144th motorized rifle brigade and the 52nd artillery brigade (as part of the Airborne Forces ).

In the Central Military District - the directorate of the 25th combined-arms (reserve) army, the 67th motorized rifle division, and the 72nd motorized rifle brigade were formed.

The 104th Airborne Assault Division of the Airborne Forces is being formed on the basis of the 31st Airborne Assault Brigade.

The formation of the 55th Marine Division in the Pacific Fleet has not yet been officially confirmed.

https://bmpd-livejournal-com.translate.goog/4745541.html?_x_tr_sl=ru&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en#cutid1

Its like I don't even care at this point who grabs land back and forth but I see a country passing new mobilization laws for students to get thrown into battle and ukrainian women being shown how to wear bullet proof vests compared to all these russian formations being made and probably more will be made for the 300k russians that signed military contracts this year after their training. At this point I already know who the winner of the conflict is but I dont know what land will be theirs, will another country get involved for all the equipment they are buying to nullify article 5 than become a part of Russia as well, etc.

Also in Wartime, the U.S. will once more re-activate conscription as they did in Viet Nam or in WW2 assuming conflicts blow out of control. The US is the world's 2nd largest population base at 330M+ and European nations combined at 750M+, combined at around 1 Billion+ people, that is 10x the Russian population. Also unlike Russia, the U.S. population stays young due to immigration to the country, while Russia is an aging country.

The Vietnam war ended where they had to withdraw because of losses and massive protests outside the U.S. we even made large protests with George Floyd. This is no Vietnam War to what the war college stated where you send unwilling people to fight people that have a reason to fight a war. Assuming China starts a war with taiwan, they can solve their population problem to go against Europe for all I care. I also dont know why you feel convinced that European and American governments will start throwing people into white vans like Ukraine next for a war they don't give a shit about to be in?

It would need Russia a lot of luck that a war erupts in the Pacific forcing the U.S. to be hard-pressed to fight and sustain a 2 front war to level the power balance in Europe back to Russia's favor. But even Europe alone has a larger population and industries that in war could be turned to support the war effort, in such scenario we would even probably see Porsche back in the tank-making business.

The Naval issue wont be much of a problem depending on stealth submarines and zircon production, I am sure Europe has a big population like Russia. But they seem reliant on Russian energy sources that Russia can cut off at any time(but choose not to in this war) and you need energy to make shells, missiles and military equipment, etc.

So If I'm Russia, there's no easy way to restore the Soviet Empire past Ukraine. Ukraine could be the last and only country that Russia could hope to bring back into their sphere of influence, considering Russia's population base, industry etc.

I cant predict the future but after Ukraine there is no need to get more territory but no idea on the clusterfuck that is happening in Armenia at the moment with azerbaijan, turkey, getting NATO troops in country, Iran, etc.

 

[Ecderha]

Second ruZZian ship admiral makarov frigate is seen to be towed back to port.
It seems that Ukrainian USVs are far more successful than ruZZia is willing to admit.

2 days ago ruZZian media LIE that both ships destroyed Ukraine unmanned attack boats.
As we can see both ships are heavy damaged and they were not able to return to their home ports and were towed by tug boats.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1703050838057583055

 

[Gary]

The two of three Grigorovich left in the Black Sea would eventually need to be dry docked, I guess that's when the Ukrainians will throw their ATACMs.

Let's see in a few months

 

[blackjack]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1703147903600967906

 

[blackjack]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1703146624887742755