Live Conflict Ukraine-Russia War

Gary

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It will be a subject of intensive military study how TF Russia decided to destroy Ukrainian energy generation AFTER the Winter had passed


The choice is in your hands Ukraine.


20240328_230905.jpg
 

Relic

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Recent photos of UAC production plant. Multiple Su-35 and Su-57 being produced.


Russia could absolutely afford a few loss every few months
This is exactly what we need. Russia shooting down their own jets valued between $40 million and $80 million usd, and in about half the instances, killing their own pilots.

Everything they do that and are forced to build a replacement aircrafts, that's tens of millions of dollars that could be spent in other areas of the war that they are instead forced to spend to replace an aircraft.

Attrition is a must!
 

contricusc

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Andrew Perpetua's visually confirmed and geolocated losses for Russia and Ukraine, Wednesday, March 27th.

Can you publish the summary for the last period since the last summary?

The totals for a longer period (like two weeks) are more relevant and show how the overall losses add up, and we can make an idea at the comparative loss rate of each side.
 

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Ecderha

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No matter What!
ruzzian junk is THE JUNK of all military product out there.
This time they try to use smoke granades to hide and hope that this will help. Result is the same as always, ruzzian junks explode BIG TIIME




95% of all ruzzian tank man try always to keep hatches open. They hope that if junk is hit then they will have bigger chance to escape via open hatch.
ruzzian tank man know what kind of junk they drive. Nevertheless most of time they just die, no time for escape
 

Relic

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After yesterday's announcement that Poland 🇵🇱 agreed to double their commitment to the Czech 🇨🇿 led coalition to procure artillery shells for Ukraine, this news dropped today.

Instead of the 800,000 artillery shells that were initially purchased, the total number has now reached 1 million shells, which means an additional 200,000 shells have been purchased, at a cost of 1.8 Billion Euros.

Most importantly, however, it's being reported that the timeline for the delivery if shells to start MAY be moved up to April. Previously, the first deliveries were not set to arrive until the beginning of June.

All allegiances aside, that is objectively big news. If Ukraine can start matching Russia's rate of fire as early as April, the personnel and equipment casualties suffered by the Russians during this ongoing offensive are going to ramp up significantly, just as the U.S. passes more aid that will help re-supply everything from air defense, to long range balistic and cruise missiles, to anti-armor weapons, artillery pieces, IFVs and MBTs. That will be followed in short order by the first deliveries of F-16s, which will add to Ukraine's stand off strike capability.

 
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Gary

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This is exactly what we need. Russia shooting down their own jets valued between $40 million and $80 million usd, and in about half the instances, killing their own pilots.

Everything they do that and are forced to build a replacement aircrafts, that's tens of millions of dollars that could be spent in other areas of the war that they are instead forced to spend to replace an aircraft.

Attrition is a must!

It goes both ways actually, for example, for every power plant Russia bombs, more money will be allocated to repair and replace instead of money to fight a war.

IMG_20240329_051533.jpg
 

Gary

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Oh btw, 40km ? WTF are the Russians even doing during last winter? They have like multiple platforms that could shoot 40kms away

IMG_20240329_052008.jpg
 

blackjack

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This is exactly what we need. Russia shooting down their own jets valued between $40 million and $80 million usd, and in about half the instances, killing their own pilots.

Everything they do that and are forced to build a replacement aircrafts, that's tens of millions of dollars that could be spent in other areas of the war that they are instead forced to spend to replace an aircraft.

Attrition is a must!
I'll show you some math, when the war completed 392 days, on March 22 last year, Shoigu stated that the VKS had already made 140,000 combat sorties which gives an average of 357 combat sorties per day. If VKS managed to maintain this pace today they must have already completed 272,000 combat sorties. Let's assume that Russia lost 15 aircraft to friendly fire, this would correspond to only 0.005% of the total number of combat sorties!
 

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Another Abrams destroyed and Zelensky believes a major offensive will happen in late May or early June.
 

Relic

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Sorry, let me correct myself and elaborate:
The ~$15 billion assessment describes what Ukraine would realistically receive, both military and economic, in 2024.

Realistically HR 815 provides for:
Economic Aid to Ukraine: $8,249,000,000
Short Term Military Aid: $6,907,409,800
Long Term Military Aid (Not in 2024): $13,772,460,000

I have a spreadsheet which summarizes all of HR 815's financials, I sent it to you in PMs.
Woland,

A couple points after looking at the spreadsheet you provided. Thank you for that by the way.

1. The $13,772,460,000 earmarked for USAI doesn't necessarily mean that none of that aid will arrive in 2024. All it means is that it's military aid being procured direct from U.S. industry, rather than from exisiting U.S. stockpiles. There are plenty of items that USA builds substantial quantities of each month that would arrive inside of 2024. For example, some of that money will be used to procure 155mm and 105mm artillery shells and 60mm, 81mm and 120mm mortar rounds direct from industry. Those shells will start being delivered within weeks / months of being ordered. Drones are another example. Many companies will need 2-3 months of lead time before they start delivering drones. Sure deliveries will extend into 2025, but they'll certainly begin in 2024. Javelin missiles, AT4s, Stinger missiles, APKWS, Patriot missiles, AIM-120 AMRAAMS, AIM-9M/X sidewinders, JDAMS, etc also fall into that category. Therefore, not all USAI procurement has long lead times for delivery.

2. Presidential Drawdown Authority is actually significantly higher than $6,907,409,800 because there is still $3.81 billion left from the last package. Therefore, the real total of PDA is actually $10,717,409,800. What the bill does is provide more money for restocking fees of U.S. inventory, to ensure that Ukraine can be given both the PDA money in the new bill, as well as the remaining $3.81 Billion from the previous bill. That's an important point, IMO.

3. A reasonable percentage of the money that is earmarked for the U.S. Army, Air Force and Marine Corps is to fund the continued training of Ukrainian military personnel. Some examples are pilot training underway in Arizona, Patriot training in Texas, Bradley and Stryker combined arms training in Germany and amphibious training for Ukrainian Marines in multiple locations. It's important to note that said funding does not come from USAI, PDA or the $1.6 Billion of "miscallenous" funding that can be used in flexible manner to help Ukraine where needed.

4. The $8,249,000,000 worth of macro economic aid is extremely vital because Ukraine would like to announce additional mobilization to replenish and expand their brigades, but they need adequate funding for it. An enormous percentage of that money will ensure that Ukraine will have enough funds to pay for an extra 200,000-250,000 personnel in 2024 and beyond, without further stressing their already fragile economy.
 
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Relic

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There is a popular misconception that Ukraine is quickly running out of Western supplied armor and artillery, but the reality is actually the opposite. Below is a snapshot of where Ukraine stands into terms of the "Western" supplied MBTs, IFVs, APCs and Artillery.

Main Battle Tanks

M1A1 Abrams

Delivered: 31
Committed: 0
Destroyed: 2
Damaged: 2
Remaining: 27

Challenger 2
Delivered: 14
Committed: 0
Destroyed: 1
Damaged: 0
Remaining: 13

Leopard 2A4/5/6
Delivered: 71
Committed: 33
Destroyed: 15
Damaged: 20
Remaining: 69

Leopard 1A5
Delivered: 30
Committed: 135
Destroyed: 1
Damaged: 0
Remaining: 164

PT-91 Twardy
Delivered: 60
Committed: 0
Destroyed: 5
Damaged: 2
Remaining: 53

Infantry Fighting Vehicles

Bradley M2A2 ODS

Delivered: 190
Committed: 0
Destroyed: 33
Damaged: 39
Remaining: 118

Marder 1A3
Delivered: 90
Committed: 50
Destroyed: 4
Damaged: 7
Remaining: 129

CV9035/40
Delivered: 50
Committed: 35
Destroyed: 0
Damaged: 5
Remaining: 80

KTO Rosomak
Delievered: 120
Committed: 100
Destroyed: 3
Damaged: 1
Remaining: 216

AMX-10RC
Delivered: 38
Committed: 7
Destroyed: 2
Damaged: 2
Remaining: 41

M1126 Stryker
Delivered: 189
Committed: 0
Destroyed: 8
Damaged: 2
Remaining: 179

Bushmaster
Delivered: 120
Committed: 0
Destroyed: 10
Damaged: 4
Remaining: 106

Artillery

M777

Delivered: 190
Committed: 0
Destroyed: 44
Damaged: 38
Remaining: 108

TRF1
Delivered: 21
Committed: 0
Destroyed: 1
Damaged: 0
Remaining: 20

FH-70
Delivered: 34
Committed: 0
Destroyed: 2
Damaged: 3
Remaining: 29

M119
Delivered: 126
Committed: 0
Destroyed: 0
Damaged: 3
Remaining: 123

M120 RAK
Delivered: Unknown
Committed: 24
Destroyed: 1
Damaged: 0
Remaining: 23

M109A3/4/5/6/7
Delivered: 169
Committed: 0
Destroyed: 41
Damaged: 16
Remaining: 112

Krab
Delivered: Unknown
Committed: 72
Destroyed: 23
Damaged: 6
Remaining: 43

CAESAR
Delivered: 67
Committed: 78
Destroyed: 5
Damaged: 3
Remaining: 138

Panzerhaubitze 2000
Delivered: 14
Committed: 32
Destroyed: 0
Damaged: 1
Remaining: 45

RCH-155
Delivered: 0
Committed: 36
Destroyed: 0
Damaged:
Remaining: 36

DANA M2's
Delivered: 43
Committed: 0
Destroyed: 1
Damaged: 3
Remaining: 39

Zuzana 2
Delivered: 14
Committed: 24
Destroyed: 2
Damaged: 1
Remaining: 35

DITA
Delivered: 0
Committed: 9
Destroyed: 0
Damaged: 0
Remaining: 9

Archer
Delivered: 8
Committed: 0
Destroyed: 0
Damaged: 1
Remaining: 7
 
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UkroTurk

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There is a popular misconception that Ukraine is quickly running out of Western supplied armor and artillery, but the reality is actually the opposite. Below is a snapshot of where Ukraine stands into terms of the "Western" supplied MBTs, IFVs, APCs and Artillery.

Main Battle Tanks

M1A1 Abrams

Delivered: 31
Committed: 0
Destroyed: 2
Damaged: 2
Remaining: 27

Challenger 2
Delivered: 14
Committed: 0
Destroyed: 1
Damaged: 0
Remaining: 13

Leopard 2A4/5/6
Delivered: 71
Committed: 33
Destroyed: 15
Damaged: 20
Remaining: 69

Leopard 1A5
Delivered: 30
Committed: 135
Destroyed: 1
Damaged: 0
Remaining: 164

PT-91 Twardy
Delivered: 60
Committed: 0
Destroyed: 5
Damaged: 2
Remaining: 53

Infantry Fighting Vehicles

Bradley M2A2 ODS

Delivered: 190
Committed: 0
Destroyed: 33
Damaged: 39
Remaining: 118

Marder 1A3
Delivered: 90
Committed: 50
Destroyed: 4
Damaged: 7
Remaining: 129

CV9035/40
Delivered: 50
Committed: 35
Destroyed: 0
Damaged: 5
Remaining: 80

KTO Rosomak
Delievered: 120
Committed: 100
Destroyed: 3
Damaged: 1
Remaining: 216

AMX-10RC
Delivered: 38
Committed: 7
Destroyed: 2
Damaged: 2
Remaining: 41

M1126 Stryker
Delivered: 189
Committed: 0
Destroyed: 8
Damaged: 2
Remaining: 179

Bushmaster
Delivered: 120
Committed: 0
Destroyed: 10
Damaged: 4
Remaining: 106

Artillery

M777

Delivered: 190
Committed: 0
Destroyed: 44
Damaged: 38
Remaining: 108

TRF1
Delivered: 21
Committed: 0
Destroyed: 1
Damaged: 0
Remaining: 20

FH-70
Delivered: 34
Committed: 0
Destroyed: 2
Damaged: 3
Remaining: 29

M119
Delivered: 126
Committed: 0
Destroyed: 0
Damaged: 3
Remaining: 123

M120 RAK
Delivered: Unknown
Committed: 24
Destroyed: 1
Damaged: 0
Remaining: 23

M109A3/4/5/6/7
Delivered: 169
Committed: 0
Destroyed: 41
Damaged: 16
Remaining: 112

Krab
Delivered: Unknown
Committed: 72
Destroyed: 23
Damaged: 6
Remaining: 43

CAESAR
Delivered: 67
Committed: 78
Destroyed: 5
Damaged: 3
Remaining: 138

Panzerhaubitze 2000
Delivered: 14
Committed: 32
Destroyed: 0
Damaged: 1
Remaining: 45

RCH-155
Delivered: 0
Committed: 36
Destroyed: 0
Damaged:
Remaining: 36

DANA M2's
Delivered: 43
Committed: 0
Destroyed: 1
Damaged: 3
Remaining: 39

Zuzana 2
Delivered: 14
Committed: 24
Destroyed: 2
Damaged: 1
Remaining: 35

DITA
Delivered: 0
Committed: 9
Destroyed: 0
Damaged: 0
Remaining: 9

Archer
Delivered: 8
Committed: 0
Destroyed: 0
Damaged: 1
Remaining: 7
According to results Leopard 2A, Bradley M2 and M777howitzers are the workhorse and the stars of the battle.
 

UkroTurk

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Do you want live? Then dig deeper!

Ukrainian military are digging fortifications against the backdrop of the gradual advance of the Russian Federation

Kremlin troops are taking advantage of reduced supplies of artillery and ammunition to Ukraine.

Since the beginning of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, the Ukrainian military has lived by the principle “if you want to live, dig.” The deeper their trenches, the better protected they are from shell fragments and sniper bullets.

"That's still the case. But now, if we don't want to lose more of our land, we also have to dig and dig and dig," a soldier named Eugene, who is stationed on the eastern front, told the Financial Times.
 

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