Live Conflict Ukraine-Russia War

[Gary]

More and more power plants in Ukraine now off after relentless Russian attacks.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1773602278391304499

 

[Gary]

Bad idea from the Russian MP, instead of expelling Ukrainians from their city towards the West, they will be more useful if captured intact. Russia need them alive more than dead, as their population is also declining.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1773424824389636394

 

[UkroTurk]

German experts: international law allows ground troops in Ukraine ｜ DPA

According to the German parliament's lower house (Bundestag) Research Services, the deployment of ground troops by a NATO country in Ukraine would not automatically make all other NATO countries parties to the conflict. It is true that the state in question would itself become a party to the...

nordot.app

German experts: international law allows ground troops in Ukraine

According to the German parliament's lower house (Bundestag) Research Services, the deployment of ground troops by a NATO country in Ukraine would not automatically make all other NATO countries parties to the conflict.

 

[UkroTurk]

Zelensky named another option for ending the war



Zelensky named another way to end the war

The President of Ukraine explained what combination Ukraine’s defense needs so that its military can move forward.

There are different opinions about the end of the war in Ukraine: some say it will not end as long as Putin is in power, while others believe that Ukraine should become strong.

President of Ukraine Vladimir Zelensky said this in an interview with the American television channel CBS. “How long will this war last? Some say that as long as Putin is alive. And others say until we are simply strong,” he noted. According to him, the world offers various peace formulas and everyone seems to know how to end the war.

Zelensky noted that the so-called Russian President Vladimir Putin does not want to end the war.

 

[Gary]

The war can end if Zelensky sign the capitulation papers.

Easy

 

[Gary]

Just sayin here. 40 million is the number with all population including occupied territory of Ukraine in Donbass and Crimea put into the calculus. The remaining ones still under Ukraine's direct administration could be as low as 20 million.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1773764721780416636

 

[Slayer]

The war can end if Zelensky sign the capitulation papers.

Easy

Russia started the war but Ukraine will end it. That's how it usually goes.

 

[Gary]

Russia started the war but Ukraine will end it. That's how it usually goes.

Maybe, the war can end if Russia start packing up and roll back towards the 1991 border.

In short, all possibilities exists, but the two leaders of Russia and Ukraine refuses to opt for it.

The fault lies in both Putin and Zelensky

 

[Relic]

According to results Leopard 2A, Bradley M2 and M777howitzers are the workhorse and the stars of the battle.

The great news is that if the Western willpower exists, all of those items can be replenished in reasonable quantities.

Leopard 2 MBT: Spain , Germany and Poland all still have large quantities of the German made MBTs. Spain just announced that they're sending 19 more to Ukraine. Germany could easily send another 20 units after completing the re-purchase of units from Switzerland. Poland has ordered 1000 K2 MBTs and 250 Abrams MBTs to replace their Leopard 2s and PT-91s. If the USA expedites the delivery of some of the Abrams by sending tanks in storage, Poland could easily send 30-40 additional Leopard 2s to Ukraine in response.

Bradley M2A2-ODS: USA sent 190 units initially, but has several thousand of this variant in storage and 700 of the newest variant on order. When new funding is approved it's almost assured that they'll send additional units to Ukraine. Sending 100 units to the 47th Assault Brigade would more than replace their losses and would leave them with spares. The other 100 units could partially equip a 2nd brigade that is currently fielding BMP-1s and BMP-2s.

M777s: A USA Army general recently came out and said that in the age of drone warfare, towed howitzers are officially obsolete for U.S. purposes. Survivability will be emphasize moving forward, therefore, artillery units most be mobile so they can "shoot and scoot". This reality means that the U.S. stockpile of M777s can be further donated to Ukraine because new funding will allow for the purchase of additional M109A7's to replace them. Russia stills uses a ton of towed artillery, which means Ukraine can as well for the purposes of this conflict. I expect to see a further 100'ish units (as well as spare parts) be donated from U.S. stockpiles to fully replenish Ukraine's M777 artillery batteries for the next couple years.

Ultimately, some of Ukraine's biggest "workhorse" weapons from the West, still exist in large quanties. Expect to see those units replenished throughout this year, as attrition continues to hit Ukraine's military and the transition from Soviet weapons to Western weapons continues its natural progression.

 

[Relic]

Belgium has announced a new military aid package for Ukraine worth 100 million Euros. The package includes the following.

- Training for Ukrainian F-16 pilots.
- Spare parts and maintenance for F-16s.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1773765704191295843

 

[blackjack]

https://iz.ru/1673034/2024-03-28/putin-nazval-istrebiteli-f-16-zakonnoi-tceliu-dlia-rossii

"Of course, if they are used from airfields of third countries, they become a legitimate target for us, wherever they are," Putin said, answering the question whether the Russian Armed Forces will destroy Ukrainian F-16s at NATO airfields if they are used from there."

With the assumption that all airfields get targeted with missiles I asked some random users if F-16s can use some random grass fields and have the fuel and ammunition trucks come to them wherever they land I got this response back from him.

"Takeoff and Landing would be, at best, a longshot gamble every time. unless its been machined, a seemingly flat stretch of field is full of peaks and valleys, anyone who's hiked off trails will know that. Your going to be beating the absolute shit out of the landing gear, and at those speeds there's a good chance it breaks and collapses on landing, and on takeoff you are at serious risk of something going crunch, or bouncing hard enough that you drive the wing ordinance or tip even into the dirt, at attempted takeoff speeds.

You could bring out machinery to shave off the ground enough to make it less suicidal, but then your setting up a new permanent airfield - It'd stand out like any other field, and be just as easily cratered. I dunno how good Russia's intel of the Ukrainian interior is, so maybe it'll work for a first launch but once they know where abouts to look, its gonna get bombed again.

I dunno if the F16 can operate reliably in those conditions, but even if we assume that the answer is "Yes, but...", you're going to be putting in a lot of extra maintenance hours per air hour to keep up with the extra abuse. More maintenance, less flights, less impact in the war. Or, run them into failure and have a week of overuse, then nothing as shit starts to fail."

 

[Ecderha]

as we keep see over and over and over again

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1773618731911913945

This is the Ukraine soldier which said "The fact about putin soldiers "

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1773669438258057451

 

[Ecderha]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1773452462969462874

 

[Ecderha]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1773801725217956246

 

[blackjack]

Not uploading 20 videos here, so anyone can go have a look.

Russian Lancet Loitering Munitions Claim 30 Ukrainian Targets In Week (Videos)

The Russian military has successfully destroyed or damaged 29 Ukrainian vehicles and heavy weapons using Lancet loitering munitions between March...

southfront.press

Hope throwing billions of dollars at Ukraine solves the problem.

 

[Relic]

Not uploading 20 videos here, so anyone can go have a look.

Russian Lancet Loitering Munitions Claim 30 Ukrainian Targets In Week (Videos)

The Russian military has successfully destroyed or damaged 29 Ukrainian vehicles and heavy weapons using Lancet loitering munitions between March...

southfront.press

Hope throwing billions of dollars at Ukraine solves the problem.

Typical far right wing painting of the situation. The idea is not to throw billions of dollars at Ukraine. Billions of dollars doesn't really do anything. The idea is to send billions of dollars worth of armor, artillery and aircraft to Ukraine, accepting the reality of war and the inevitable losses that come with it... But in the process, destroying the Russian Army's stockpile of weaponry at such an alarming rate that Russian industry can't hope to keep up. This forces Russia to increasingly dig deeper into their ancient stockpiles of weapons, to fill the gaps left by the destruction of their best stuff. As Russians increasingly turn to worse equipment, their casualty rate skyrockets and and they lose a lot of their most experienced war fighters.

 

[blackjack]

Typical far right wing painting of the situation. The idea is not to throw billions of dollars at Ukraine. Billions of dollars doesn't really do anything. The idea is to send billions of dollars worth of armor, artillery and aircraft to Ukraine, accepting the reality of war and the inevitable losses that come with it... But in the process, destroying the Russian Army's stockpile of weaponry at such an alarming rate that Russian industry can't hope to keep up. This forces Russia to increasingly dig deeper into their ancient stockpiles of weapons, to fill the gaps left by the destruction of their best stuff. As Russians increasingly turn to worse equipment, their casualty rate skyrockets and and they lose a lot of their most experienced war fighters.

Are you genuinely blind or choosing to be oblivious to the pattern we are seeing here? I dont think you seem to understand that their current tanks and aircrafts are getting mass produced while the news reports you show is it makes it look the west is fighting for scraps. 163 armored vehicles, howitzers were destroyed by lancet, 30 were estimated destroyed in 1 week for this month. Abrams getting destroyed seems be a new norm now for this war. The only good news about all of this is it gives me more reassurance that NATO wouldn't get involved with barely anything left. F-16s are not cheap they need airfields to operate in AFAIK.

It doesnt look like they are running out.

60 stealth recon drones a month.

Updated Ukrainian view of Russian Forces inside the SVO

As of 1.02.2024, the combat personnel of the so-called "United Grouping of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation in the south-western Theater of Operations", that is, precisely the grouping of the Russian army that operates on the territory of Ukraine:

- personnel – 469.8 thousand military personnel
- tanks (of all types) – 2797 units
- armored combat vehicles, including armored vehicles and multi-purpose tractors and BTR - 7218 units
- artillery systems, caliber from 100 mm - 4843 units
- multiple launch rocket systems – 1142 units
- launchers of tactical and operational-tactical missile systems – 48 units

Currently, in reserve (at all levels), the command of this group has:

- regiments (of all types, types and branches of the armed forces) – 17
- battalions (also of all types, types and branches of the armed forces) – 16
- consolidated and separate tactical detachments ("regiment-battalion" level) – 2

https://t.me/s/zvizdecmanhustu

Figures in October (10/29/2023):

- personnel – 441.7 thousand military personnel
- tanks – 2324 units
- armored combat vehicles, including armored vehicles – 5661 units
- artillery systems, caliber from 100 mm - 3148 units
- multiple launch rocket systems – 982 units
- launchers of the operational-tactical missile system – at least 46 units

1. Putin had given a figure of 617,000 Russian forces in the SMO around the time of the 2nd anniversary of it's start.
2. The Ukrainians had given a figure of 470,000 Russian forces inside Ukrainian around the same time.
3. Unknown is what exactly encompasses the SMO for both the Russians and the Ukrainians.

I dont know what math Ukraine is using for what counts as tanks but 2500 tanks or so was what they had a month prior to when the war started, they got supplied more tanks and eventually western tanks but now there are too many recent videos of western tanks being destroyed which they usually reserve supposedly as the best for last. I am sure none of those 2000 tanks they are claiming from telegram has 100s of leopards, abrams and challengers. Also Russians do rotations in the battlefield letting everyone gain some experience. Ukraine has received 1000s of armored vehicles and many aircrafts but none of that has pushed Russia far back to Crimea and with all these power structures getting targeted there might be a chance an offensive can get launched earlier than the dates Zelensky is estimating.

 

[Relic]

Are you genuinely blind or choosing to be oblivious to the pattern we are seeing here? I dont think you seem to understand that their current tanks and aircrafts are getting mass produced while the news reports you show is it makes it look the west is fighting for scraps. 163 armored vehicles, howitzers were destroyed by lancet, 30 were estimated destroyed in 1 week for this month. Abrams getting destroyed seems be a new norm now for this war. The only good news about all of this is it gives me more reassurance that NATO wouldn't get involved with barely anything left. F-16s are not cheap they need airfields to operate in AFAIK.

It doesnt look like they are running out.

60 stealth recon drones a month.

Updated Ukrainian view of Russian Forces inside the SVO

As of 1.02.2024, the combat personnel of the so-called "United Grouping of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation in the south-western Theater of Operations", that is, precisely the grouping of the Russian army that operates on the territory of Ukraine:

- personnel – 469.8 thousand military personnel
- tanks (of all types) – 2797 units
- armored combat vehicles, including armored vehicles and multi-purpose tractors and BTR - 7218 units
- artillery systems, caliber from 100 mm - 4843 units
- multiple launch rocket systems – 1142 units
- launchers of tactical and operational-tactical missile systems – 48 units

Currently, in reserve (at all levels), the command of this group has:

- regiments (of all types, types and branches of the armed forces) – 17
- battalions (also of all types, types and branches of the armed forces) – 16
- consolidated and separate tactical detachments ("regiment-battalion" level) – 2

https://t.me/s/zvizdecmanhustu

Figures in October (10/29/2023):

- personnel – 441.7 thousand military personnel
- tanks – 2324 units
- armored combat vehicles, including armored vehicles – 5661 units
- artillery systems, caliber from 100 mm - 3148 units
- multiple launch rocket systems – 982 units
- launchers of the operational-tactical missile system – at least 46 units

1. Putin had given a figure of 617,000 Russian forces in the SMO around the time of the 2nd anniversary of it's start.
2. The Ukrainians had given a figure of 470,000 Russian forces inside Ukrainian around the same time.
3. Unknown is what exactly encompasses the SMO for both the Russians and the Ukrainians.

I dont know what math Ukraine is using for what counts as tanks but 2500 tanks or so was what they had a month prior to when the war started, they got supplied more tanks and eventually western tanks but now there are too many recent videos of western tanks being destroyed which they usually reserve supposedly as the best for last. I am sure none of those 2000 tanks they are claiming from telegram has 100s of leopards, abrams and challengers. Also Russians do rotations in the battlefield letting everyone gain some experience. Ukraine has received 1000s of armored vehicles and many aircrafts but none of that has pushed Russia far back to Crimea and with all these power structures getting targeted there might be a chance an offensive can get launched earlier than the dates Zelensky is estimating.

Lol I literally post the visually confirmed, geolocated losses for both Russia and Ukraine every day. Those are compiled independently and are not the product of Russian or Ukrainian propaganda. You're sniffing glue if you believe anything that either Kyiv or Moscow report regarding the numbers of losses of the opposition.

Both Oryx and Andrew Perpetua go to great lengths to track losses that are actually virtually confirmed and geolocated. They certainly are not perfect. In a world of long range strikes and contested war zones, there is armor and artillery on both sides of the war that gets destroyed and is unaccounted for. That said, if either side's propaganda regarding the other's losses was legitimate, either Russia would be at the doorstep of Lviv right now, or Russia would have been pushed out of Ukraine entirely.

 

[Relic]

USA defense contractor Lockheed Martin has reached an important production milestone. They are now producing 10,000 GMLRS rockets per year, up from the 6000 they were producing at the outset of the war in Ukraine. 10,000 has their current production line maxed. They are now in the process of building a secondary production line that will increase the production rate to 14,000 units in 2025.

GMLRS has probably been Ukraine's most effective weapon throughout the war. With a range of 70km, and proven deadly accurate, Russia has lost substantial quantities of air defense systems, artillery pieces, EW vehicles, command posts, etc to GMLRS fire. They've also had an incredibly hard time tracking down thr HIMARS / M270 vehicles that fire the long range rockets.

The U.S. Army has ordered approximately 5,000 GMLRS in 2024 to replenish its stockpiles. They are looking to order a similar number in 2025. That leaves 5000-9000 units in those respective years that can be sold to Allied buyers such as Poland, Finland and Romania, and the remainder can be sent to Ukraine.

If Ukraine can get their hands on 3000 units per year moving forward (given the increased production rate) they'll be able to fire 250'ish GMRLS each month, allowing them to be much more liberal and less picky regarding what Russian units they target. They will no longer have to be reserved for only "big ticket" Russian items. When combined with cheaper GLSDB, Ukraine's ability to strike consistently at range is going to increase dramatically.

 

[Gary]

Jay in Kyiv being Jay in Kyiv

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1773823766302253450